Welcome in friends to Fantasy Pros. This is the Fantasy Football Podcast. I'm Chris Welson. Today we have got quarterback and tight end rankings. Joining me, of course, is Pat fitz Morris and Billy Muzioh. We're going to be going through the top twelve of each of those positions, looking at a couple of names outside of it, hopefully answering some of your big rank questions for the weekend. We're going to give you the top twelve according to Fantasy Pros ECR. You can check out all the ranks over
at fantasypros dot com slash rankings. Follow them through the week if you want to see the updates as guys go up and down and weird things happen, and you know, like the Gorendos get picked up. You're going to see things that are going to be moving and shaking, so follow it bookmarket. You can also check it out over on the My Playbook app so you don't miss any of that. Gentlemen, let's start with our first position at quarterbacks.
Bringing up the big board, we got Josh Allen, your current MVP holder, at minus like two twenty across the board, so currently set up for MVP. He's going against the Rams, Jalen Hurts at two. Incredible matchup as well. If he can get going against Carolina, Joe Burrow, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray. That's your top five for the week. Sam Darnold, Jordan Love, Jared Goff, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Tua and Russ Wilson.
Is your top twelve for the QBS. Let's start with Justin Herbert.
We got a little bit of a difference here because you guys are kind of split between the ECR. ECR is ten. Fits you got him at eight, Billy, you got him at twelve. Let's start with the positive here. Fits, you are higher than consensus at eight. As Justin Herbert is going up against Kansas City, that is a tough matchup. So what's got you pushing him as a top eight quarterback this week?
You would think it's a tough matchup, Welsh, but something about the Kansas City Chiefs just lights of fire under Justin Herbert. You might say he sees red whenever he plays the Kansas City Chiefs.
I'll be here all.
Week, folks. So in eight career games against the Chiefs, Justin Herbert has averaged two hundred and seventy three passing yards and two point one touchdown passes. He's also had three touchdown runs against the Chiefs in his career and his career passer rating against Kansas City one oh one point five. Like he is just dialed in whenever he plays the Chiefs. Passing volume always sort of a wild card for Herbert. It kind of short circuited him in
Week thirteen. But in this matchup, I'm not especially worried because I don't think the Chargers are going to be extra run heavy against one of the best run defenses in the NFL and not having JK. Dobbin, So I don't worry about the past volume with Herbert in this matchup. And yeah, I'm going with the matchup history here, Like Herbert just seems to bring his best against Kansas City.
Bill you got him at twelve obviously a breakdown. I'm curious who are like the two quarterbacks you have above, Like who is Herbert falling down for? Who has kind of jumped over Herbert for you?
Yeah, I'm looking at this right now. I think I might be two spots too low. Right now, I think I don't really like having Perty ahead of him right now based upon the preliminary numbers, and I don't really like having Kyler Murray ahead of him right now, and so I could see him probably finishing in my ranks around QB ten range. So I think this is you know, subject to change still, you know, as I as I kind of dive into the data more, and I do
like the matchup this week. My only fear is that Herbert has only finished inside the top ten three times all season, you know, and and and it's it was as of you know, week eight, week ten, and week eleven. So yeah, I think the matchup is there. I think he could you know. The fear is, you know, earlier in the year Kansas City, he finished as the quarterback twenty two. But to Pat's point, you know they're down there running back, They're probably gonna throw the ball a
little bit more. So I think I need to bump them up slightly.
Here this right now. I do not like Kyler at five. I just want to throw that out you mentioned, so you clearly have Kyler lower. If if you had him below, Herbert would be I'm going to be lower on that. He's five in the ranks. No thanks, a lot of people looking at tape and realizing less Marvin and more Kyler issues. I mean the matchup Seattle, however, you want to look at that defensively playing better, maybe there's more
of a shootout. But ranked fifth, I look at some of the quarterbacks below Darnald love Golf, even to your point with Mahomes, I don't think any of those guys are going to rank I'm going to have Kyler over any of them. I just there's a random thing. I just want to throw it out there. Do you think Kyler is ranked too high?
I actually have him at four. I'm looking at that now and thinking I have to move him down below. I've got him one spot ahead of Baker Mayfield, and that's probably wrong.
I should move on to trust him.
I don't trust Kyler like he is all over the place.
You never know what you're going to get from Kyler Murray. Like he can give you the twenty five point game, he can give you the eleven point game, and like even half to half. He's very unpredictable, and it's just yeah, like I can't predict it, so I just have to I mean, I'm probably just best off ranking him as like a low NQB one every week and just leaving him there.
Yeah, that's a good point.
Probably, like if you are swinging for the fences in week fourteen, it's a musket in situation, you're projected lower. Kyler's actually probably a great play because it's like, I need to make up ground. He's the type of guy in theory that could. But if you're looking for more floor, like give me Sam Darnold, give me love. I know Penning when people are listening to this, I just thought that was interesting. Caleb Williams, So here's a big rank difference.
You have a love.
We always get these with Pat and Billy. Caleb Williams, ECR fifteen fits. You are even lower at eighteen against the San Francisco forty nine ers.
Billy quarterback six.
That's your Kyler Murray. Yes, you can throw against the forty nine ers. That is something you can do. If Nick Bose is out, there's much less of a pass rush and we might have the as we called it, from dead cat to dead coach bounce, where you know you have a quarterback coach who's gone into offensive coordinator taking over, which you would kind of suspect they're going to slang the ball a whole bunch. I'm going to guess those are a few of the talking points, maybe Billy,
that you have. So let's get your take on. Caleb Williams at a very high.
QB six this week.
Yeah, he's actually head back to back weeks inside the top five. He was quarterback five and week thirteen. He was quarterback four in week twelve. Ever since that change, we've seen an upticking attempts thirty nine and forty seven in those two weeks. Here you mentioned it, our Niners can be thrown against. I mean, in worst case scenario, if this ranking absolutely fails, I mean, Planeters win, I'm
going to be happy either way. So I really do feel like this is a hedge and just my morale and life in general with with the Niners.
Your mental health. It's a hedge and your mental health for the weekend.
Yes, exactly, No, but all jokes aside. The Niners are very beatable through the air, and we're now starting to see them kind of give Caleb Williams the aok to kind of air it out. You know, we've seen five touchdowns over the course of the last two weeks. He's also scrambling a bit more now as well, so I feel like he's starting to get into a groove per se. And and you know, it wasn't against like easy matchups either. I mean, Detroit is no pushover. You know, Minnesota has
not been a push over all years. So I do feel like that this matchup is pretty similar to those The Niners are beatable in a lot of ways, and to your point, boss Out, this is going to be an even easier matchup for Kile Williams.
FITZI, this is a pretty low rank of Caleb, but Caleb's also a pretty untrustworthy guy. Like we know how chaotic he can be in the pocket and running around and quick decisive decisions I think are really needed for him to be successful. But you do have some of the other pieces ranked high, not you specifically, but like DJ Moore is ranked high this week at like fifteen, so you've got some higher ranks that are out there.
What's you take on Caleb.
I think all the components of the Bears passing game are sort of over ranked this week, and I'm just kind of amused sitting between two self loathing forty nine ers fans and thinking that, like They're going to turn Caleb Williams into like a young Patrick Mahomes this week. So yeah, Caleb has averaged forty three pass attempts over
the last two weeks. Like the heavy passing volume makes it seem like he's on an upswing, and to his credit, he has been playing better lately since the coordinator change. But we've also had some dry spells with Caleb. He went four straight games without a touchdown pass from week to week eleven even last week. Like, I mean, he made up for lost time last week, but we hit
the two minute warning in the first half. The Bears had not picked up a first down yet as of the two minute warning last week against the Lions, so it was it was not pretty for much of that game. I do think Caleb's a decent play this week. You know, they're eighteen or nineteen quarterbacks I feel okay about and he is inside that cut line. But maybe the Bears keep up the heavy passing volume. And Caleb has provided at least thirty three rushing yards in each of his
last three games, so there's that. But I just I think that the passing volume has sort of propped up Caleb's Q rating his image now, and I don't know, I think there's a little more danger than maybe you guys suggest with, or at least in Billy suggests with his top ten ranking of calebs this week against the Niners.
The way your leaning's not bad, everybody, go and check out our new YouTube offering out of Bounds piece of p Joey and I made a bear slash Kleb Williams bet for this week that will have to be paid next Monday on the show. So if you want to find out what it is, what the repercussions are, go and check it out out of Bounds here on the Channel one. Last quarterback one, This is a great one
to bring up. He's ranked low on ECR just kind of like as a general thing, but how can we continuously keep Jamis Winston down when he throws fifty plus times, even when he throws two picks, he's still you know, the volume is there, FITZI, you've got him at seventeen, Billy, you've got him at twelve, Billy. Let's get a quick hitter on Jamis Winson. So you're kind of putting your money where that fantasy production output is. Right now, you've got him at QB twelve.
Yeah, the unfortunate piece is his lowest performance of the last three weeks was against Pittsburgh, and here we are again verus Pittsburgh where he finished this quarterback eighteen. However, in the last three weeks he's actually quarterback two from weeks eleven, twelve, and thirteen. Volume dependent here, I think
this is a bit of a bounce back. Is that Cleveland game against Pittsburgh through for zero touchdowns and still finished as the quarterback eighteen, So you get one touchdown the mix here, and I think he's inside the top twelve pretty easily, especially when he's throwing the ball fifty eight forty six times. So I'm gonna put like you said, money with mouth is he's throwing it, he's slinging it. Let's go ahead and get him inside the top twelve.
Winston or russ for you in that game.
I actually have Russell Wilson ahead of.
Winston, so QB one as well.
There you go, FITZI, jamis Winston huge, huge volume. I say you're low on the rank, actually like a little bit higher than consensus on it. But he still isn't breaking like the top you know, fifteen of quarterbacks for you.
Yeah, I'm closer to ECR than I am to Billy, But I feel like I'm maybe getting this wrong and should be closer to Billy than ECR with the Jamis rank, Like, obviously everyone's terrified by the matchup. The Steelers have allowed the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this year. On the other hand, though, like you could look at some numbers that suggest maybe this isn't a terrible matchup at least if the Browns offensive line can keep that Pittsburgh pass
rush off of Jamis. Because the Steelers have allowed seven point nine passing yards per attempt, seventh most in the league. Their opponent passer rating of ninety nine point one is the ninth worst in the league. And Jamis has just been racking up the air yards and the passing yards and the pass attempts every game over his last five starts, forty three point six pass attempts per game, and he has had forty one or more pass attempts in four of those five starts.
Like they are just.
Letting Jamis cut it loose, and I don't see any reason why that changes. And Billy mentioned, you know, statistically the game against the Steelers a couple of weeks ago, wasn't that great. It's also kind of a weird weather game with the snow, and so I don't know, like I would not be shocked at all if Jamis had like another three hundred and fifty yard game this week.
Let's cut over to the tight ends.
We've got the tight end ranks for the week. We're gonna pull up the big board for the top twelve, starting with Brock Bauers of course, Trey McBride at two, Travis Kelce, George Kittle.
John news Smith. That's your top five. That's the core, the top core five. They're just kind of a rearranging TJ.
Hockinson, David and Joku, Evan Ingram, Sam Laporta, Kate Aughton, Tucker Craft, and Will Disley. Gentleman, I have to ask you about Sam Laporta. Sam Laporta has moved over Kate Aughton, which a month ago everyone would have laughed at at the thought of it because of how bad Laporta has been or is just really bad as far as the production. But he goes out has two touchdowns getting more involved. Do you think at all, FITZI will start with you.
That this is a trap.
It's a trap with Sam Laporta because he had the touchdowns. I lightly say this because like the end of tight end is like kind of stinky, So it's like you could bench Laporta maybe for like an Earth's or a friar mouth. So you know, maybe that doesn't like make you feel sick if you do start Laporta. But do you think this is kind of like a trap with Laporte?
He does have a great matchup against Green Bay, but nine does seem high off of one game where he had barely or not been in the top twelve for quite some time.
I have him ranked one spot below Evan Ingram, and I think those two guys are polar opposites in terms of their production profile. Laporta is low floor, high ceiling. We just can't count on the target volume with him. Like his target volume has taken a nose dive from where it was last year, and I think part of that is the emergence of Jamison Williams. Like a lot of the targets that Laporta was getting last year have
gone to Jamison Williams this year. And whereas Angram is this low ceiling, high floor guy, who gets a lot of targets and receptions and just doesn't do anything with them. Over his last four games, Ingram is averaging eight point five targets and five point eight catches a game, which sounds great. He's at at least seven targets and five
catches in each of those games. The problem is that he hasn't finished with forty five with more than forty five receiving yards in any of those games, and he is averaging six point seven yards per catch over that stretch. Where's Laporte?
Is this guy?
You know he'll give you the occasional touchdown, the occasional big catch and run. Just not getting that with Ingram. So if you are an underdog in your matchup, like I would pivot to Laporta over Ingram, no question about it. But if you're like a ten point favorite, I think I'd rather have Ingram.
Same thing going to you, Billy, Sam Laporta. Do you feel the trap in Sam Laporta right now? Because he doesn't meet the qualifications of volume outside of one week. So let's say you on Sammy.
Yeah, he doesn't meet the qualifications of volume, and by the pure analytics and the Excel sheet I actually have him in the Grant Caltara Juwan Johnson range. But there's a few players I go through and manually bump up every week and this is one of them. Like, I can't comfortably put him in this in this tier, right It's just because he has the ability to beat me significantly in this area, and so I'm probably gonna put him around tight in ten range, you know, just kind
of play it safe. But I don't love the volume. I don't really like his usage this year. And I mean, you could, you could honestly make a real argument to start Juwan Johnson. You know, Noah Gray and Grant tear above him this week. There's real arguments you made there, but I don't think anyone would actually do it. But it's one of those things that you don't feel comfortable starting him.
Wait, Billy, keep talking up Grant cal Katara because the bipocalypse has me forced to start him in the scott Fishball playoffs this week. So I would be all for a big game from Grant cal Katara.
Yeah, I gotta met number fifteen right now.
Beautiful transition, though I'm going to call an audible on the last tight end thing.
We're going to talk about I have another bet. I'm a betting man.
This week on Fantasy Pros with mister Andrew Erickson, we had a heated, calculated debate about Kyle Pitts and Juan Johnson that Ericson believed this is the Kyle Pitts week. I asked why he has six receptions since Week eight and one of those was four receptions. Kyle Pitts is a nothing burger and you don't see him on this list. Juwan Johnson not exciting, specifically cited to me you, mister
Pat Fitzmorris not a Jawan Johnson fan yet. Jawan Johnson had one less catch than Kyle Pitts in Week thirteen than Kyle Pitts had from week eight. On Taysom Hill is out. Juwan Johnson had seven targets in this past game with Taysom Hill out, and now he will be the sole sole tight end Juwan Johnson or.
Kyle Pitts this week.
Let's start with Billy No, you know I want I wanted to save fits for the end.
Let's start with Billy over here.
Well, remember the last time we met boys, I was gonna have to eat my hat if Kyle Pitts had three straight weeks. I did not get put on notice and Barstool Sports did not find me and hold me accountable.
Your hot looks good, by the way, it doesn't look any not deep fried, it's not deepe.
That was the way we're going to go. But in actuality, we've seen Kyle Pitch just fall off the cliff since then, and he has not been consistent. So I have Juwan Johnson at Titan thirteen of Kyle Pits at Tighten twenty three this week.
H oh, just I love it.
I know Erickson said, you're not the biggest fan of Juwan Johnson Johnson versus Kyle Pitts this week.
No, every time, I felt like in the past, Juwan Johnson was cleared for liftoff, he was told by the tower not to begin taxing and something derailed his flight.
So yeah, but.
Then again, I mean, you look at how just battered. If this pass catch and cors is for the Saints, like it's not inconceivable he could wind up with like a dozen targets and eight catches this week, And yeah, I'm gonna have to have a rethink on this. I'm just kind of clinging to my priors on Kyle Pitts, even though the snaps have been down, he's kind of only been playing on obvious passing downs lately. I've got him tight end fourteen, and I think I've got Juwan
Johnson at like tight end eighteen or nineteen. So but I I can see the case that Juwan Johnson looks like a better play this week.
For sure. He's an interesting streamer. He's he's a fun streamer.
If you have some tight end issues, if you lost Taysom Hill, there might be the downside, But unfortunately there I mean, I guess maybe you could argue that like Craft and Aughton and Disley, who end out the top twelve, they maybe have the higher floor, and in theory they do, except like targets have kind of been going down a little bit for some of them. But then if you're looking at a little bit more of an upside play, he could get more involved. But you know, to your point,
you could completely get shut up. But Juwan Johnson, if someone's looking in the streaming tight end range, might be a play this week and a very interesting dynamic change of ranks when comparing to a guy like Kyle Pitts, who, unquestioned, is one of the most physically gifted of all the tight ends on this list, but is an absolute zero in production.
Yeah, I will say I will say Welsh. If the Falcons had done what they should have earlier this week and announced the switch from Kirk Cousins to Michael Pennix, I definitely would have felt better about Kyle Pitts than Juwan Johnson.
I think I'd absolutely do the same.
So you guys are going to probably have some big questions throughout the week, as we've been mentioning on our other rank episodes, which you guys can go and check out on the YouTube channel. Don't forget about our weekly Start and Sit live stream on the YouTube where you can come and ask the Start and Sit questions Kyle Pitch, Juwan Johnson, depens, who's there now? We'll answer, but we'll
be with you every Thursday at three pm Eastern. So those on the pod YouTube dot com Slash Fantasy Pros make sure you're subscribed as always so you don't miss anything, whether it's giveaways, great episodes, new offerings.
We got a lot of it.
Billy Muzio, Pat fitz Morris, I'm Chris Welsh, we got you for Week fourteen. Hopefully you guys have a great one and get into the playoffs. Thank you for hanging out with us right here on Fantasy Pros and we'll talk to you next time.
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