Hello friends, and welcome in too, Fantasy pros. This is the Fantasy Football Podcast, Week sixteen ranks for quarterbacks and for tight ends. Your big decisions are here. Every decision is absolutely critical and hopefully we'll be able to help you get into the right space for quarterbacks and for tight ends. Joining me today, I'm Chris Welsh is Pat Fitzmorris. It's a duo show, just us finishing out the year
with the ranks for your playoffs. As we're going to talk about both of these spots and quarterbacks and tight ends both have a lot of weird ranges this week, Pat, on your level of your willing to get cute to, I will just play the chalk and the name. Where do you think you lie just as an overarching quarterback and tight end this week? Like are you looking to play these big upsides or you just want to get
a few points out of those tight ends? And really that's a little bit more of a quarterback question, I suppose as well.
I guess you could have just come out while shouldn't asked me about Anthony Richardson directly. And it's funny because I think Richardson is like certain personalities of fantasy managers just like, don't play it, man, Like if you're one of these mincing freddy cat people who just could not live with an eight point Anthony Richardson game, like, don't don't even consider starting him. But like, if you are
a swashbuckler, goot man. I mean, like, you know, there is any time Anthony Richardson goes out there, there's twenty five point upside because of his running ability. You know, he could give you three rushing touchdowns. So like he is the sort of player like I'm especially welsh. If I'm an underdog by you know, the projected points have me down by six or more points, Heck yeah, I will throw Anthony Richardson in there. And if he lays
an egg, so be it. I Am happy to shoot for the moon if I need to.
Where do you have him? Where do you have Richardson this week?
Right now?
I've got him fifteen? Okay, And I mean that feels like it might be too low. I might end up moving him off a few spots, but it's probably gonna settle in somewhere between you know, thirteen and fifteen.
Yeah, he's not on the big board of what we're gonna do with quarterbacks here. But it was curious because they're I don't think that. I think the debate in the streaming quarterback world is fine. I think there's like a lot of different angles to this. It's like when you're not in the playoffs, you know, a week to week basis, and you've got you know, two or three quarterbacks. Let's say it's you've got Jordan Love and you've got
Anthony Richardson, and then you're playing around. You're like, all right, matchup to match up, But then you get down to if I lose and I screw around, I'm done. That's where I feel a little less likely to be more of a gunslinger. But I think the question is still valid. Hey guys, I have Jordan Love and I have Anthony Richardson. What do you think? But but bub the problem or the bigger debate question I think comes when you have
an elite player with a bad matchup. I am clearly alluding to Lamar Jackson, which I know is going to be a heavily asked question this week. So let's go to the big board quarterbacks here for the rankings we have over at fantasypros dot com. Slash rankings. You can see the ECR Expert consensus ranks of all of the rankers that do our contest. This is what it spits
out for the average. The expert consensus rank is Josh Allen at one, Jalen Hurts at two, Lamar Jackson is at three, Joe Burrow, Jaden Daniels as your top five, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Sam Darnell, Jordan Love, brock perty at ten, Jared Goff at eleven, and Bo Nick's at twelve. So we have been getting this question for weeks and I have I've pretty steadily stated that A AM not not playing Lamar Jackson regardless of the matchup. B. I actually also think he is going to break the Steeler
curse this week. But see I understand why people are asking the question. Lamar Jackson stinks against the Pittsburgh Steelers. He has never had a three touchdown passing day. He's never had over like two hundred and sixty passing yards. He's on average under two hundred yards passing. I think he's thrown more picks than touchdowns, and he has a two to five record. He stinks again them typically, and people have been asking NonStop. Should I start Dot dot
over Lamar, I will not. If you have Jalen or if you have Josh Allen, I will start him over. I'm not doing it. But the last point of it is, I understand hindsight is going to give people power. I say, I personally am not going to start Baker Mayfield over Lamar Jackson. And Baker Mayfield may finish higher, may finish a lot higher, and I hope I'm not wrong about that. But hindsight is going to give people that power. But Lamar Jackson is having an MVP like season. He's coming
off of a five touchdown week. I myself could not sleep at night benching Lamar Jackson, and he breaks that curse and playing Sam Darnold against Seattle over him even though those aren't the worst options. Or Baker Mayfield. So it's a heavy stance that you know, like I said, unless he is quarterback one or two, everyone's going to have the power of Ah, you idiot, blah blah blah.
That's fine, I'll throw it to you because I know, like Ericson agrees with me, I think piece of pa reasoning, we're all kind of in that spot and we're susceptible to the criticism when Lamar Jackson stinks, but I rank him at three. He is three in ECR. How are you handling the Lamar Jackson struggles versus the Steeler situation this week?
So Josh Allen is the QB one without question. I have Welsh, I have Lamar Jackson rank QB two. I could see ranking him QB four and putting him behind Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow.
Love Joe Burrow this week too, Yeah, yeah.
And if you wanted to start Hurts or Burrow over Lamar, if you somehow face that situation in a one QB league, I'd be okay with it. If you were terrified by the track record of Lamar John Lamar Jackson against Mike Tomlins Steelers, I get it. But like I'm willing to keep going to Lamar Jackson. You know, he's at least
giving you some pretty good floor game. There haven't been too many abject disaster games for Lamar against the Steelers, and you know he still has that thirty plus point ceiling even in this matchup, so I'm continuing to run him out there. I would not entertain the idea of starting Baker Mayfield over him, of starting Sam Darnold over him, of starting Kyler Murray.
Jaden Daniels was a big one. I think that's come up multiple times too, which I would not do. Jaden Daniels does not have a great matchup against the Eagles. In fact, we have a star rating on our ranks it is the worst rated matchup of the top twelve quarterbacks.
It's a one star rating out of it. So Daniels has been a very popular one I've seen because I don't think people are I mean there are some, but I don't think people are like really really considering like Kyler Murray even though it's against Carolina over Lamar Jackson. Maybe they are, but Jaden Daniels is one I have actually seen people bringing up and just heay, you know, going down to the ship, going down with the ship, and maybe the floor will be good enough with some
of those other options. It's a tough one. But I say that in that I think the questions when you bring up like Anthony Richardson, who you start talking about, I don't know, I don't amost sound like I'm talking down, but like getting cute with quarterbacks. I think it's easier to do when you get into that like lower range. So some of that lower range we're talking about are ECR nine to ten, and then we're going to go
one outside Jordan Love. If you have Jordan Love, who is ECR nine, I'm at ECR you have him a little bit lower. So you told me you have Anthony Richardson at fifteen, so you don't have Richardson over him, but you move Jordan Love out of the top twelve of qbs. Do you think that line where you could be like Richardson's rushing upside is actually a little bit better. You could see yourself starting him over Jordan Love.
Yeah, as an underdog, I probably would do that. Like if I went into a game whilst there is one game where I'm going in as like a double digit underdog, and it's a super Flex League and my quarterbacks are set, I don't have a choice like this to make. But like, if I have the choice at QB two between Anthony Richardson and Jordan Love in that game, I would play Richardson because I feel like I need to land some
sort of haymaker in that game. As a ten point twelve point underdog, how much are the green Bay Packers going to need to throw in a home game against the New Orleans Saints where they are favored by fourteen or fourteen and a half points in Green Bay in late December, where it's probably going to be like twenty eight to twenty five degrees outside.
Not maybe not ideal passing.
This summer for you guys over there.
Also, I mean the Saints' defense twelfth in DVA against the pass, thirtieth in DVA against the run. Jordan Love hasn't thrown thirty passes in a game well since Week nine. He has averaged twenty three pass attempts over his last five games. The Packers have now passed the Pittsburgh Steelers to become the second run heaviest team in the league,
behind only the Eagles. The Packers have run the ball on fifty one point two percent of their offensive snaps season, and they've only become more run heavy as the season has gone on. On the other hand, Welsh, I guess I could envision a scenario where Jordan Love throws twenty passes and still gets two hundred and sixty yards and three touchdowns.
So like that, that's the.
Part I could see just because this is a game where I expect the Packers to sort of mop the deck with the Saints. And I don't just say that as a Packers homer. I think this is going to be easy pickings for them. I just worry that it's going to be like a forty carry game for the combination of Josh Jacobs, Chris Brooks, Emmanuel Wilson, where they just take turns battering away at this bad Saints run defense.
Yeah.
I was almost going to say, like one of the things about that, you know, Packers pass game might be just they've been so effective running with Josh Jacobs. It might not even be so much about like a we don't want Love to be doing this or we can't do this. It's just we're doing great with the running and this is another matchup for that. Another in the land of Homer would be my forty nine d guy, Brock Purdy. He is ECR ten. I am at ten.
But guess what, I'm not the homer here because you are higher with brock Purty this week, which I also kind of agree with. I think, even talking about this out loud, I think I want to put Purdy above Love, so I'll move up to nine in one spot. But it's a pretty good situation for the San Francisco forty nine ers. I think this is a George Kittle week. It was a prediction on mine. I also think Juan Jennings, I guess, as I usually do, will kind of eat.
We know Deebo Samuel will never But you like brock Purty in this and you've got a pretty strong rank for him.
Yeah, And I understand why people might feel a little skittish about Purdy after that egg he laid last week against the Rams.
Welch, have you seen these.
Splits in brock Party's career games in the rain?
Oh? In the rain? I thought you're gonna do the home road where he's like one of the best quarterback ratings on the road and he's one of the worst at home. No, give me some rain ones.
The rain, Like I don't have them in front of me. But I mean, he has been terrible in rain games. Someone someone posted something about that on Twitter this week, and I'm sorry I can't give proper credit because I forget who that was, But like, his past performances in the rain just not good. So if we had rain in the forecast for Miami this weekend. I'd certainly be backing off this QB one ranking for Purty, but I did check the forecast whilsch no rain, partly cloudy, Miami should.
Be seventy one projected.
Yes, yeah, and now like I realized, Perty's thrown a couple of clunkers at us. He also had ninety four yards and no touchdowns against the Bills in Week thirteen, then one hundred and forty two no touchdowns against the Rams last week. Through the first twelve games of the season, however, brock Purty was QB seven and fantasy points per game at nineteen point five, averaging just under twenty points a game.
Not having left tackle Trent Williams has hurt, and I don't know if Williams is going to be back this week with the the ankle injury, and obviously Deebo Samuel has been struggling.
It's a tough matchup on paper.
Miami's given up the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, but the Dolphins are pretty tough against the run two, so I don't think the forty nine ers are going to be able to just batter away with Isaac Garrendo this week. I think they need offensive balance. I do think Brock Birdie Brock Purty bounces back this week.
Welsh, Yeah, I'm with that pretty in general. On the season total, this is one of those again, it's like the season total is really dramatic against quarterbacks over the last month, it's kind of pared down a little bit. It's a little bit more median for and ands are going to have to pass the ball. They really have not done any mass passing as of recent and I think that is going to be the only way that they're going to end up winning this game if they can.
They are underdogs, I believe. I believe the Dolphins one and a half. Yeah, so this is party plays better on the road. It's a bright and sunny, clear game. I think that's a really good spot. Love George Kittle, love Juwan Jennings in here. If they can set up the run, it'll set up the play action and I'll probably be looking at Purty plus two touchdowns. Also, just
the ineffectiveness of the Dolphins in general. If they're going to give time a possession to the forty nine ers, that's going to benefit for you know, brock perty is one of the biggest passing quarterbacks at the beginning of the year. They've got to get back to that. I don't know they still believe they're playing for something They're most likely not, but I think this is a pretty good spot for brock Party. The other quarterback is a quarterback not in the top twelve. Big week. Last week,
we're going to Aaron Rodgers. Aaron Rodgers is ECR sixteen. DeVante Adams had a huge game in here. What are your thoughts on I guess we'd call this like the streaming option of Aaron Rodgers this week.
Yeah, I know you're a little higher on him than I am. Well, should I get it? Like?
I feel like I should maybe be a couple spots higher on him. I've got to make QB sixteen, and right now I've got him directly by hind Anthony Richardson, who we talked about, and Justin Herbert, and I'm starting to second guess myself on that Justin Herbert ranking given his recent trajectory, So I might move Rogers up ahead
of Justin Herbert. Aaron Rodgers is QB five in fantasy scoring over the last two weeks, and he has thrown multiple touchdown passes in three of his last four games, including a season high three against the Jaguars last week. He and his old buddy DeVante Adams have just been absolutely cooking lately and this could actually be a shootout against the Rams. The Vegas total for Jets Rams is forty six and a half points.
Wels.
I can't remember a higher total for a Jets game. Recently, those totals have been pretty low, and this one is, you know, hinting that we could see some points in this game. So not only Devanta Adams, he's got Garrett Wilson. The Rams have allowed the ninth MO fantasy points to quarterbacks this year. Like, it's a pretty good spot if you're thinking of streamers.
Aaron Rodgers is right.
Up there, and that's where I'm with it. Also, throughout over the last month, the third most fantasy points quarterbacks the Rams have given up. So it's an even better spot if you're in that world of like, I'm not doing Rogers over Lamar. But if you're in that world of like, hey I got Herbert, you know I've got bo Nicks, and should I put Rogers in it? It's a pretty good spot. Let's go over to tight ends.
Here the tight end ranks on the big board. We've got Trey McBride at number one, Brock Bauers, George Kittle, that's Chuck John Hu at four, Sam Laporta, t J. Howkinson. Travis Kelcey falls all the way to seven with the worries of Carson Wentz, except I do think I saw that Patrick Buons was a full participant in practice, so that might make an adjustment. Mark Andrews Tuckercraft, Pat Fryarmouth Hunter,
Henry Brenton Strange. Let me just ask you that on Travis Kelsey ECR seven, I have him at six, You have him at ten. Clearly looks like you were ranking him for Carson Wentz. Is that true? And if we have Patrick Mahomes starting, does he move up for you?
I had him at eleven when I thought it was going to be Carson Wentz, and I only moved him up one spot with the likelihood of Patrick Mahomes starting this game. Welsh Travis Kelcey hasn't scored a touchdown since Week ten and has two touchdowns all season. Over the last five weeks, Travis kelce is tight end twenty in Half point PPR Fantasy points per game with six point six. Teammate Noah Gray has averaged eleven point seven half point PPR Fantasy points over the same stretch, nearly doubling the
point total for Travis Kelcey. And this week he faces the Texans, who've a lot of the fourth fewest receiving yards and eighth fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season. I don't think the Chiefs are going to have a pass happy game plan with Patrick Mahomes playing on a high ankle sprain, so the likelihood of Mahomes airing it
out forty times pretty minimal. I just I don't like this outlook for Kelsey at all, Welsh, and it seems weird that you could be going into a fantasy playoff game thinking about starting guys like I don't know, Brenton Strange, who else could we possibly start over or Travis Kelcey, Hunter, Henry pat Freyermouth.
I'd consider it, man.
I don't like the outlook for Kelsey at all, and it's just it hasn't been happening for him, and I don't know if we get a dramatic turnaround this week.
He's looked bad and that's more and where I sit like he just hasn't looked good, and I totally acknowledge that. I will say one adjustment. You talked about the defensive prowess of the Texans versus tight Ends on the year, but over the last month they've actually given up the sixth most fantasy points to tight ends over the last month as of recent multiple touchdowns in there. Now, if I just thought like, oh, it's like old school Travis Kelce and I only cared about the month, I probably
rank Kelsey at like three or four. But I don't because I agree with you. He's looks slower. He doesn't have as much involvement in the offense as we've seen in the past. We don't see insane target ranges. But you know, if Patrick Mahomes is a little bit hurt and playing down, maybe you're going to have shorter leverage throws, maybe sitting in the pocket less and that might benefit too. Maybe it's no great but Travis Kelsey. So I just kind of came from a rank middle standpoint where I
don't view him as a lock. He's doesn't exist in the world of Trey McBride and Brock Bowers and George Kittle. He doesn't live in that world, but I still have him kind of high ish because the matchup isn't as bad as we think. If Mahomes is there, that's still going to get some of the target share, but he's just not a lock. I personally am not going to go and put Brenton Strange over him. But if you want, you know Mark Andrews and the touchdown equity that makes sense.
Pratt Firemouth honestly has been better. I'm okay with those, but I still rank Travis Kelcey high ish. But I agree with your sentiment like you might be in the week sixteen and you're not starting Travis Kelcey is weird. There are some decent option Brenton Strange would be one of those. If you were especially full PPR, why you could make that adjustment. I'm just not doing it. Do you have stay, Joe rah Kelsey?
I do? Should we talk about Brenton Strange?
Yeah for a second, because I think his ECR, I want to say, is like tight end twelve. Yeah yeah, and I've got him tight end eight. I have been struggling with this one. Whilch like he's a hard player to rank, So all right, last week Strange had eleven catches for seventy three yards against the Jets on twelve targets, but his longest reception went for nine yards eleven catches. He did not have a reception of ten yards or longer.
He is playing the same sort of security blanket role that Evan Ingram played for both Trevor Lawrence and Mac Jones earlier in the year, where it's just all these short areas targets within about five yards of the line of scrimmage. There is an excellent chance that Breton Strange is going to get you at least five or six receptions this week, but the probable stat line for Brenton Strange is probably something like six catches for forty four yards.
Like the floor is relatively sturdy, but the ceiling is probably pretty low.
And I think Strange is a.
More attractive option for fantasy managers if they're favored in their matchup. If you are a ten point underdog in your matchup and need to land a couple of haymakers against your opponent to pull off a win, I don't think Brenton Strange is the guy who's going to land those haymakers.
Yeah, and I would say, like, I think he's just a good streaming option, but I don't think that stream is over. You know, the friar Mows, the Andrews, the Crafts, the Kelsey's. I think it's like, oh, hey, guys, I have Kate Auten, or I had Kyle Pitts, or I
have Jake Ferguson like that. I would go with Brenton Strange, but I think there are just some clear cut tiers, some big tight end questions, and I think, you know, at the end of the day, there's gonna be one or two people that are just like, here are my three. You know, it's Stone Smart, it's Brenton Strange, it's Dalton Kinkaid, what do I do? That's probably gonna be a lot of the questions that we are going to see outside
of the core tight end. So if that is the case, we got you covered Thursday, three pm Eastern, where we're going to be doing our live stream here on Fantasy Pros YouTube dot com slash Fantasy Pros. We are literally just gonna have an hour of answering your question so you can bring your big playoff in week sixteen questions to that stream three pm Eastern on Thursday, go to YouTube wherever you're listening. Even if you're on YouTube, make
sure you're subscribed and put notifications. If you're not, go there, subscribe notifications on and you can even hit remind me for the episode so you do not miss it. That is it, my friends. Thank you so much for hanging out with us the whole season long too. Unfortunately, our record time goes up against Christmas next week, so we don't have the ranks next week, but we do have start and sit in all of that. So this is the final show, final show of the season with me
and Pat. Pat, thank you so much for having me on. This is my first full time in to this show for the year, so I hope I made it easy transitionally and people enjoyed listening to it. And just want to thank you for all your great work on it this year.
Well you have been an excellent helmsman throughout the season, so thank you for hosting it. It's been a blast doing the show with you every week. And thanks to all our listeners and viewers for checking in with us.
See and thank you to Scott Pianowski for joining us all season, Mick Chilela and for Billy Muzio. Those were our rotation of rank guys that have been hanging out with us. So as we bid ado to the Rank episodes, we do not for everything else. Good luck in your playoffs. Make sure you're lock here to Fantasy Pros because we got you covered and we're going to help you out. For pets Fit, Pat fitz Morris, I am Chris Welsh. We love you guys. We'll talk to you next time
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