Hello, everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm Ryan Warmley, joined by Pat fitz Morris and by Derek Brown. We are talking takeaways from the fantasy perspective for the AFC East. Today, we're running through every single division. This is our AFC East episodes. We're gonna be talking some Buffalo Bills, some Miami Dolphins, some New York Jets, and some New England Patriots. Guys, let's dive right in because these are a little bit shorter episodes of the Bills
right at the top of the division thirteen and four. Obviously, they are the two seed in the AFC playoffs. Deebro, this one is gonna be yours. What is your fantasy takeaway from the Bills this season?
Throughout the entirety of draft season, boys, we tried to answer the question of which Buffalo pass catcher should we be drafting. Is it Dalton Kin Kate, Oh, he's gonna lead the team in targets? Is it Khalil Shagir a breakout? Is it Curtis Samuel for the value? And the answer at the end of it was it was none of them, because none of them step forward as a top twenty four option As far as wide receivers, don't kick Kaid
tight end eighteen. Shakir had moments, but was he a consistent guy you felt good about plugging your lineup every single week. Finishes a wide receiver thirty three Kean Coleman again didn't mention him earlier because he didn't do much for the entirety of the season. Splash plays here and there, Wide receiver fifty five, Curtis Samuel, wide receiver ninety five.
So sad as it is one of the best offenses in the AFC, and we're like, who's the guy to draft everywhere outside of Josh Allen, It's got to be a pass catcher. The answer was no.
One. When you frame this debro for twenty twenty five, do you kind of take away from twenty twenty four that you want to avoid a lot of these pass catchers again next year, or do you think this is more looking backwards and trying to just kind of describe the twenty twenty four season rather than trying to predict twenty twenty five.
I think looking at this passing offense for twenty twenty five, unless I'm getting one of these guys to fall to me, and it fits a build or a past ADP. I'm not that in on buffalo passing attack. I just we've seen it over how many different seasons, not even just twenty twenty four, where it's like, I mean, Josh Allen is awesome, but he doesn't consistently bring people along for the ride.
Yeah. Fits. I was gonna bring up Josh Allen because I know that was a conversation that you and I and Deebro and a bunch of us at Fantasy Pros had in you know, over the summer and in August, about how maybe this was the year to finally not fade Josh Allen out of the upper tier of quarterbacks, but to look at some of those other elite fantasy quarterbacks ahead of him on draft day, and that just
turned out to not be the case once again. You know, I think he's finished top two in like five straight years, just another like tremendous, tremendous fantasy season despite not having that one pass catcher that was kind of lifting everybody else up, you know, the same way Stefan Diggs might have in the past. What was your takeaway from that?
First of all, I will cop to being one of the fade Josh Allen. Guys just seen what happened to pay Pat Yeah, Patrick Mahomes when he lost all his weapons, and how his passing numbers really went in the tank, and I was worried the same thing might happen to Josh Allen. We knew he was gonna do good things as a runner, of course, but maybe that just sort of kneecapped his value and kept him maybe a tier below Lamar Jackson because he had lost so much weaponry.
Turnout that was not the case. But generally fantasy managers want to invest in good offenses, and Buffalo certainly has a good offense. But this is just such a weird case because Buffalo rotates everyone at the skill positions like they have been using a four receiver or more rotation down the stretch with Amari Cooper, Khalil Shakir, Kean Coleman, and Mack Hollins, like they are giving Mac Collins as
many snaps as any of these other guys. You know, James Cook still has like high end RB two value, but they've been working in Ray Davis and Ty Johnson all year and at tight end, I mean they use Dalton Kinkaid and Dawson Knox. So this is really kind of a confounding offense for fantasy managers. I don't know how it's gonna change. It's weird that they've never fully integrated Amari Cooper into the offense. Maybe that starts to happen in the playoffs. I kind of doubt it. But like,
am I fading these guys for next year? Not necessarily. But the thing is, I don't think anyone's going to be ranking or drafting Khalil Shakir or Kean Coleman as like starting caliber guys. I think they're gonna be like wide receiver three, wide receiver four types.
You're not expecting maybe a step forward from Coleman just because fits I know you really liked him as a prospect, you know, in rookie drafts at least last year.
Yeah, and we saw the ball skills that, I mean, this guy has special ball skills, like he has George Pickens type ball skills. But I just don't know if the targets are going to be there for him to be anything more than a depth piece next year.
Deeper lasting on the bills. Do you expect them to add more receiving talent because you know, a lot of the conversation obviously, like you know from the MVP discussion, has been will Josh Allen is kind of dragging up a team that doesn't have a lot of talent around him. I think that's maybe a mischaracterization of what the situation he's actually in. But particularly with the pass catchers, there
isn't that one guy. Do you think they're gonna take maybe another swing, you know, late first round draft pick or in free agency of trying to address that position, or will they say, hey, this went pretty well even not having a star there, we have Josh Allen, so we're gonna fix the team elsewhere.
I think they're gonna fix the team elsewhere. This defense needs a lot of parts of pieces, especially along the defensive line. You can make a case for the O line in certain aspects and stuff. So I think it's gonna be a lot of like maybe boring moves in the NFL draft and things like that. I don't see any splash moves for Buffalo coming. And to Fitzi's point, real fast even on James Cook, dude like yeah, we can all points and saying like okay, he was the
RB eleven and fantasy points per game. Took him freaking eighteen total touchdowns to get to that point. So if the touchdowns come back next year and people are gonna say, okay, well James Cook was the guy to draft. Were any of us saying walking into this season that James Cook was going to score eighteen touchdowns? No, so you bring that down to a more reasonable number, like eight to
nine touchdowns or something like that. Like Fitzy's point, you're talking about RB twenty probably somewhere in that range and not RB eleven.
So what you're saying is we're in for another year of you setting out a thousand James Cook trade offers in our dynasty league.
And everybody's saying no, and him being more valuable on my rebuild team.
Then And I couldn't hear it him away?
No, I can't, I can't try. Nobody wants to.
All right, let's go to the Dolphin, s Bro. This is also gonna be one of your teams with the takeaway.
So I know we're looking back on this season and we're saying, okay, how everything played out? Is John O'smith real? Is this situation real? And what are we going to do with him in twenty twenty five. My takeaway is that John O'smith was a top five tight end and I think he should be ranked as such twenty twenty five. And this is not any of the Tyreek Hill I want to get out of Miami. I'm quitting Miami, all that kind of stuff. This is not even in that equation.
So don't even like, let's not misconstrue this point, John new Smith, what he did this season needs to like, people need to take note of this. He was freaking fantastic. Oh no, regardless of whatever metric you put up, and that flash of talent, that demanding of targets, that spot in this passing attack with Tyreek kill there and walking into next year, even if he's on the team another year older, he's still a top five tight end, man. Like, looking at him, even since Week eleven, he was the
tight end three in Fantasy points per game. You look at him in all different metrics amongst qualifying tight ends with at least twenty five targets, this dude was fourth in yards per route run and he was first in first downs per route run. So the production is real. We've seen the flashes of talent. Now he's in a spot where they are feeding him the football. I think this is absolutely real and I'm going to be drafting a ton of him next year.
Fits I mean, he deeper kind of mentioned Tyreek Hill. There's some uncertainty as of when we're recording this about you know, he had those comments after the game that he's out and is very open to going elsewhere, and I don't know what will end up happening. It seems like a very tricky player to deal for a number of different reasons that we don't really have time to get into. But if he's not there, that really changes the shape of this passing game.
It does, But I'm kind of echoing Deebro's sentiments, like I kind of want to keep that separately here because I don't think it mattered. Like Jalen Wattle is awesome too, and I'd almost like to see Tyreek Hill go so Jalen Wattle could play a bigger role. I just think Johnny is such an important part of the two A tongue of I low a preservation plan for the Dolphins and like keeping him, you know, out of concussion protocol and potentially having to reckon with the end of his
career if he sustains another one or two. John Who's averaged depth of target this year was four point nine yards. Like they are trying to get the ball out quickly, and they're trying to get it to John H. So look, I've got John Who ranked tight end eight for twenty twenty five. I don't think there's a case to be made that he deserves to be ranked ahead of any of brock Bauer's Trey McBride, George Kittle, or Sam Laporta. I think you can make arguments with the next three
guys I have ranked ahead of him, Mark Andrews, TJ. Hockinson, and David Nijoku. I think he's kind of on a similar tier with those guys. But I agree that John Who's season was no fluke whatsoever. Like he's actually good, which is why we saw him cutting into the production of Kyle Pitts last year and we were kind of blaming Arthur Smith about that and getting mad for him.
Maybe we owe Arthur Smith a little bit of an apology for that, because now people are going to be, you know, unanimously ranking John Hu ahead of Kyle Pitts next year and probably well ahead of him. So yes, we do still have a lot of valid grievances with mister Smith, but maybe we oh him a little bit of grace for that.
Well, our Twitter is now negatively impacting tweets that are negative in nature. They are hurt in the album, so we're not allowed to post about Kyle Pitts or Arthur Smith anymore. On the Fantasy pros, I really, you know, to me, like David and Joki, like I will not be taking him over Johnny Smith, Like I mean there's a whole offseason, like we'll see what happens, but I really don't expect to be ranking him ahead of John Whu And I think I will have Hockinson ahead of him,
like another year removed from the injury. You know, I have so much faith in that passing infrastructure. To me, Mark Andrews another year older, had the slow start this year, like obviously finished really strong, running hot with touchdowns. I think Andrews versus John Hu Deebro is going to be a really interesting debate for me personally in my rankings next year.
Yep. As FITZI was laying that out, I think and how I looked at my twenty twenty five rankings. Right now, I've got Johnny at tight end five. I think that looking at him in the same tier as TJ. Hockinson and Mark Andrews, who have a tight end six and seven, is exactly how I want to approach it. I think that that is the tier of guys that they have the top five, top three upside and stuff like that, but they're just they're a little bit outside of my
top four. Trade McBride, brock Pauers, George Kittle, and Sam Laporte as a tight end four NFL Playoffs.
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All right, fits your takeaway for the New York Jets.
It is do not fade bris Hall in twenty twenty five. And I know brius Hall did not live up to the expectations fantasy managers had when they drafted him in twenty twenty four. But when you look at the overall numbers, thirteen hundred and fifty nine yards from scrimmage, eight touchdowns in sixteen games, not too bad. I know. Jets fans were very frustrated by the lack of carries for bris Hall. Maybe not getting carries befitting a man of the sort
of talent that bres Hall has. Maybe part of that was just because the Jets were thrust into so many negative game scripts. Their defense certainly didn't live up to, you know, the elite billing it was getting back in August. Hall averaged thirteen point one carries a game this season. There was only one game where he had more than
sixteen carries. He got eighteen carries against the Bills back in October, had one hundred and thirteen rushing yards and maybe not so coincidentally, the Jets almost knocked off the Bills in that game. They lost twenty three to twenty with Tyler Bass kicking the game winner with under four minutes to go. But Hal did have fifty seven catches this year. He had seventy six catches in twenty twenty three.
Very productive as a pass catcher. I'm not sure we want to see him turn into Alvin Kamara, but maybe that wouldn't be the worst thing. But like he has that sort of pass catching ability, I just think there's more meat on the bone for him as a runner. And you know, look, the Jets probably aren't going to have Aaron Rodgers as their quarterback next year, and maybe some of Rogers. We know he likes to audible a lot maybe he was not audible and audibling into running
plays all that often. So it's hard to imagine the Jets having an above average quarterback situation next year. So maybe they would be wise to build the offense around bris Hall, this twenty three year old, freakishly athletic, highly productive, versatile running back. And you know, I think there's the potential to be much more valuable as a fantasy commodity for Brisall than he was in twenty twenty four.
If I force you to bet your entire year's salary fits on one guy to be the quarterback for the Jets in twenty twenty five, who is taking that first snap in Week one?
Justin Fields?
Yep?
Fields, justin Taylor.
That's where I mean.
It's it's gonna be a game of musical chairs and there are not enough chairs, and I think Fields is going to be one of the very last chairs. And you know, the Jets not really having the draft capital to get one of the top two quarterbacks in this class, I think that's the way they wind up going. I don't think they're bringing Sam Darnold back. No, I don't think that marriage ended all that well. So I don't know if there's another Sam Darnold go around with the Jets.
Deever, what do you think about this takeaway for the Jets?
Yeah, I mean, I'm with Fitzy on this one. I think we're looking at very very different situations and stuff like that. But I think we're looking at kind of a Bee John Robinson situation of last year, where you got a lot of different things. He'd let a lot
of people down. I know that a lot of the circumstances are very very different, but I think we're gonna see a bounce back season for Breese Hall because all the peripheral numbers still look really good man, Like you're talking about all the qualifying running backs with one hundred or more carrious for the season, Breese Hall is still top seventeen and explosive run rate yards of the contact for a tenth like and I think there's still meat on the bone like fits he was talking about, Like
for me, for Breese Hall to regain some more of that explosiveness, because there were times this season where you watched him play and that second gear where you would have seen before the injuries, Breese Hall would have taken a run like it would have been a home run for eighty ninety yards whatever, sixty seventy yards and he's petering out at like forty yards or guys are catching him from behind. I think an off season where he can enter hopefully and we know he was dinged up
to the finish the regular season. Hopefully he can enter this offseason relatively close to full health and we could see an even better version of Breeze Hall. So if he's gonna fall in drafts, especially like if we're talking about justin fields, Tyrod Taylor gonna be the quarterback maybe for next year for New York. Yeah, give me all the Breeze Holl.
No explanation or a deep dive breakdown, Just give me a number. He will be ranked overall, and not at the position amongst running backs. Overall, He'll be ranked where for you next year, de bro.
Top twenty fits, yeah, edge of top twenty, between.
Top twenty and top twenty four. Definitely in the top two rounds.
Yeah, agreed, All right. So that was the Jets. They went five and twelve last year. By the way, I didn't mention Dolphins were eight and nine and missed the playoffs. Patriots four and thirteen. They miss out on the number one overall pick because because they won in the last week of the season fits. What was your big takeaway from the Patriots this season.
Yeah, Look, the Patriots only had one objective this season and that was to integrate Drake May into the offense. Mission accomplished. Drake May's rookie season suggests that he will be a top ten fantasy quarterback for the foreseeable future. And this was like one of my favorite things about the twenty twenty four season seeing Drake May performed so well after the Patriots made him their starter in Week six. May just was not over his head at all as
a rookie. A sixty six point six percent completion percentage, fifteen touchdowns and ten interceptions in twelve starts, only thirty four sacks and no more than four sacks in any game. Six point seven yards per attempt. I mean, that's not great, but that number is going to come up and the rushing numbers, that is what should really have people excited about Drake May for Fantasy four hundred and twenty one rushing yards in starts plus one very short relief appearance.
Also had a couple of rushing touchdowns. This dude is going to be running for six hundred to seven hundred yards every season, and that is rushing yardage that moves the needle in fantasy. That is the Konami code we're looking for. And look, May had this awful supporting cast last year. Patriots had one of the worst groups of pass catchers in the league. It looks like they might have busted on the two receivers they drafted last April, Jalen Polk and Javon Baker, neither of whom did anything
this year. PFF graded the Patriots offensive line second worst in the league in pass blocking this year, So it was a dumpster fire around Drake May and he was still able to thrive. But here's the thing. The Patriots are picking early in the draft, even though they're not picking quite as highly as they should be. They have a ton of salary cap space, more than any other team in the league, over one hundred million in cap space. Their offseason mandate is to throw the kitchen sink into
helping out Drake May. And they're gonna upgrade the offensive line. They're gonna upgrade their outside receivers. Get guys better than Kaishawn Booty and Kendrick Bourne. I have Drake May rank QB ten next year, and I think he is going to be a top ten, if not a top five, fantasy quarterback for a long long time.
I could not agree more. He is a quarterback. I guarantee I will be ahead of consensus on Drake May next season. I don't know where consensus is gonna fall, but I will make it a point to be ahead of consensus. I really and maybe I'm putting a little bit too much faith in what the organization is going to do, Like he needs other pieces around him obviously
for that to pan out. I'm just believing that the Patriots are going to draft either an offensive lineman or one of these high level receivers with the fourth overall pick. I'm believing that they're going to make a smart head coach higher that is going to put strong pieces around him, you know, deepbro. The way I kind of think about it is when I'm actually drafting Drake May next year, I'm not sure where specific I'm going to have in ranks. Like I said, I want to be ahead of consensus.
I'm not sure what that number is going to be. But if we were doing a draft of just quarterbacks, in terms of who's the most likely to finish as QB one next year, Like talking pure ceiling, not even taking in consideration the floor. If they don't hit there in the volatility, I think May might be like my sixth or seventh quarterback off the board in that theoretical draft. Like that's how high I see the ceiling if they put the right pieces around him. Because again, like fits
hit on it. The running is just a differentiator from every other quarterback that doesn't run the way he does.
Yeah, I mean, I agree a lot of the points of job both have made about Drake May. I'm a little bit lower on him.
And this is not just going.
Back to prospect stuff like that, Like the rushing is definitively there to hoist him up in fantasy purposes. I'm a little bit lower as far as him as a passer. I still think it's a work in progress. What he showed can so the offensive line, the weapons and all that kind of stuff was really good. I still want to bring up the fact that he was eighteenth in CPOE.
He was outside the top twenty quarterbacks in catchable target rate, So there are some things that he's got to clean up as a passer out with notwithstanding of the pass catchers around him. But the rushing aspect I think is really what needs to be highlighted here because I mean, we're talking about a guy that was top ten and rushing yards and rushing yards per game. He reproduces that next year, And I mean, look, Alexan, like, I was not a fan.
Of Drod Mayo.
Glad he's gone.
Glad their OC is gone because I thought he was one of the worst offensive coordators in the entire freaking league. So not having him with a hands on the playbook and the future of Drake may is absolutely fantastic. I really want to see who do they hire, Like I think Mike Rabel is going to be the next coach
of the New England Patriots. So for me, this all comes down to you need to smash the offensive coordinator that you freaking and that higher is going to depend on where I'm at on may Is he a mid ish QB two next year or does he sneak into my top twelve? The OC higher is going to kind of push me in one one way or the other as well as their offseason moves.
Let's hope it's not a Mike Frabele Arthur Smith reunion.
No, I was just I was just thinking that Fitzy. I was like, but I mean, could you see, like if Drake May were to do some Ryan Tannehill stuff with his legs, like, I don't think i'd hate that either. Yeah, hated for all the pass catchers, not so much for the quarterback.
Yeah. I can just tell you this, Like my strategy at quarterback next year, I already know it's going to be I'm gonna want one of Alan Lamar or Jade Daniels, Like I do think that they are kind of separate
from everybody else. If I don't get them, if they're just going too high and I don't feel comfortable taking the quarterback where they're going, my next goal will be to wait several rounds, kind of pass on the the guys who aren't running as much and who I just there's question marks about and waiting to take Drake May Like I think I'm gonna have a lot of Drake May in leagues next year. That was our AFC East episode,
our Fantasy Takeaways. We're running through all the divisions, So if you have watched any of the others already or If this is the first one you want to be sure to check out on YouTube or wherever you listen to your podcast. All the divisions for debro and fits. I'm Ryan Warmley. Thanks for tuning in and we'll see you next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros
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