Interest rates going up. Oil prices big problem. The stock market kept soaring, but even though the S&P 500 gained 20% that year more stocks in the index ended 1999 down than up. There are some similarities between now and '99 and one of those is how far companies will go to make sure they aren’t one of those on the outside looking in. CEOs today are all over AI hype, but they’re lying to you about it. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ---------------------------------------...
Apr 28, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1373
Back in April 2020, oil prices went negative after the futures market underestimated just how much demand had collapsed, causing chaos as market participants scrambled to unload their oil. Here in April 2026, the oil futures market is in danger of something similar but in the opposite direction. Certain market participants just may be underestimating how much supply has collapsed. Worrying that might be the case, the Dallas Fed surveyed oil industry companies about what they’re seeing and where ...
Apr 27, 2026•22 min•Ep. 1372
Underscoring the global nature of private credit and the credit cycle, one of India’s biggest borrowers has announced it will be delaying principal and interest payments on one of its biggest junk bonds. And who are the primary owners of said bonds? Private credit funds like Cerberus and regulated institutions like Deutsche Bank. The specific bonds in question aren’t going to bring down either one, but the missed cash payments do highlight more behavior consistent with a shift in the cycle and w...
Apr 26, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1371
The global economy is being set right up for a brutal summer, according to the latest incoming data. Manufacturing is up right now, but the faster it goes today the worse it is going to be in the coming months. Services, the majority of the economy, are starting to get crushed – Europe, for example, it just set a 62-month low. This is the same general setup as last year which fed right into job losses, contracting incomes, rising unemployment...and more Pringles. Eurodollar University's Money &a...
Apr 24, 2026•19 min•Ep. 1370
European consumer sentiment is in "free fall", in the European govt's own words. DHL’s CEO warned the world is heading for a quote tipping point – in other words, the race against time. Economic sentiment just crashed. Unemployment in places like Scandinavia has jumped while in the UK job losses have returned alongside the appearance of one of the worse labor market outcomes, the dropout. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ---------------------------------------------------------...
Apr 23, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1368
Countries REALLY don't want to go to DC and ask for a dollar swap line. One nation just did (according to WSJ) and it is one of the most critical redistribution centers in the eurodollar system. While the usual suspects go on about "dedollarization" and petroyuans, over here in the real world the consequences from lack of oil flow include a shortfall of dollars as much as oil. Eurodollar University Money & Macro Analysis U.A.E. Asks U.S. About a Wartime Financial Lifeline https://www.wsj.com...
Apr 23, 2026•29 min•Ep. 1369
Interest rates in China’s bond market are aggressively declining, more at the short-term maturities. It’s a classic bond bull case, which means it isn’t bullish. The question is where this is coming from. Inside the country or outside? As if that wasn’t the only big signal, the Chinese government just did something that will have you shaking your head where it comes to consumer spending and retail sales data. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre In a world where markets swing o...
Apr 20, 2026•22 min•Ep. 1367
Banks are taking more steps to distance themselves from the growing private credit bust. They’re revaluing private credit assets that have been pledged to them as security for financing banks have provided to these shadow banks. I told you when JPM did it a month ago there would be others. Insurance companies are now really getting dragged into this mess, too, a double dose of Stage 2. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ------------------------------------------------------------...
Apr 20, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1366
The good news is the IRS is reporting about a 10% rise in average income tax refunds. However, the initial data is showing most Americans are just not spending the windfall. Understandably, they’re either saving the money or more often paying down debt. Those are certainly positive in their own way, helping struggling taxpayers repair their own fiscal balance sheets after years of limited income growth and jobs, but from the broader economic perspective it’s not what was hoped. Eurodollar Univer...
Apr 17, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1365
The IMF is getting nervous. Nervous to the point its chief economist just said the world is already drifting toward their newly minted adverse scenario. What does that mean? It means a collision course with the point of no return. And that point of no return is much closer than you’d think given how the world was in bad shape before the energy shock showed up. The difference between fragile and resilient makes all the difference. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ---------------...
Apr 16, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1364
You know who can’t stop talking about the private credit bust? The big bankers. Jamie Dimon is constantly in the media almost too happy to share his negative thoughts. Recently Goldman Sach’s David Solomon reminded everyone the credit cycle has not been repealed. But you know who hasn’t said a word? Life insurance execs. The companies that write retirement annuities. 2008 was about big banks. 2026 is about big insurance. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ------------------------...
Apr 15, 2026•22 min•Ep. 1363
Chinese banks are now trapped which is why China has finally entered an era of full-blown extend and pretend. It’s been on the edge of it for some time, but recent data and information out of the country show the banking sector has crossed that threshold into the low-rate trap which has squeezed profitability and left banks to bleed cash. So, more grim lending and credit data from China’s central bank just confirms everything including the trap having been sprung. Eurodollar University's Money &...
Apr 14, 2026•19 min•Ep. 1362
With talks between the US and Iran falling apart, there will be renewed focus this week on the Strait of Hormuz, getting it open and restoring traffic. Nearly all the focus so far as been on the energy part of the trade equation, the amount crude oil being able to transit the bottleneck. But there is another key set of commodities that are likewise being held back, and most people don’t realize just how big this is. Energy shock, yes, there is also a growing food shock. Eurodollar University's c...
Apr 13, 2026•23 min•Ep. 1361
Repo fails spiked to more than $415 billion. Treasury bill prices are jumping. Prices. US bank dealers are using their record government bond holdings at the same time foreigners are deploying huge amounts of their reserves of the same instruments. Treasuries bonds are all over the shadows and it has nothing do with interest rates or the Fed, except the Fed is providing a lot of the data. What does it all mean? The answer -a critical part of it - can be found in Nigeria. Eurodollar University's ...
Apr 12, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1360
Target is throwing in the towel on its previous losing strategy. Like many businesses, it tried to raise prices only to find its customers going elsewhere, largely to Walmart. Now Target is slashing its prices including on the towel it just threw in. The retail giant simply has no other choice given the sudden change in consumer behavior we’re seeing across the economic landscape. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Target cuts prices on 3,000 items as stubborn inflation keeps US ...
Apr 10, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1359
Several countries across Asia are confirming they experienced major dollar funding losses last month amidst a cash crunch on surging demand for money to buy oil. Officials in Taiwan, Indonesia, India and in other places have had to scramble to contain the monetary pressure, causing several of them to expend significant reserves just to keep their currency values from plunging. Or, plunging more than they did. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ------------------------------------...
Apr 09, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1358
Airports are canceling flights right now due fuel shortages and fears they will worsen. Airlines are including those in the US are already raising bag fees and other costs trying to pass along the doubling in jet fuel prices to passengers. Meanwhile, the international energy agency’s chief says the current oil crisis is worse than 1973, 1979, and 2022 combined. The thing is, that sounds crazy but sadly it’s not and we’re just now seeing the preliminary effects of Hormuz at the forefront in air t...
Apr 08, 2026•22 min•Ep. 1357
Jamie Dimon, the head of the country’s largest bank, wrote his annual shareholder letter accompanying the firm’s annual report. Filled with numerous charts touting the company’s successes and thousands of words reinforcing them, it is a single one that sticks out like a sore thumb and therefore defines the entire effort. And, yes, it is about the private credit situation. Of that, he said “probably.” Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ---------------------------------------------...
Apr 07, 2026•22 min•Ep. 1356
Almost four hundred thousand American workers dropped out of the labor force in March, setting yet a new low in labor participation. Why? There are no jobs, a fact confirmed by both the employment estimate plus an utterly dismal hiring rate from JOLTS, one that rivaled January and February 2009. There’s more, too. S&P Global said the services sector contracted for the first time in three years last month and a decline in its employment index, showing how the oil price shock is already starti...
Apr 06, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1355
Oil prices are absolutely soaring...AND CRASHING. Yes, at the same time. The main US petroleum benchmark surged by a whopping $11.42 a barrel on Thursday alone, the last trading day before the Good Friday holiday. And one key benchmark clocked in above $140. Yet, the rest of oil futures aren’t soaring at all. In fact, contracts for oil early next year are under $70 per barrel right now - more importantly they’ve been falling for a couple weeks already. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro A...
Apr 05, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1354
First, we have our "subprime is contained" moment from the Fed. Second, the run on Blue Owl is "unprecedented." Third, and more important than either of those, it's ***who*** is doing the running. In its disclosure, the sad owl let slip the truth underneath more ridiculous spin. When investors demand 20% to 40% out of your top funds, it's finally time to stop pretending this is all nothing. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis -------------------------------------------------------...
Apr 03, 2026•41 min•Ep. 1353
Thanks to Monarch for partnering with me! Start your free trial and get 50% off your first year of total money clarity using my link https://monarchmoney.yt.link/WW7Xqyc or code euro50. Oracle announced it will be laying off tens of thousands of its employees in an attempt to save cash. Not that long ago the company could borrow any insane amount it wanted. In other words, the proposed job cuts at Oracle offer more confirmation of credit market stress. So do the layoffs Block had announced in la...
Apr 02, 2026•22 min•Ep. 1352
The question everyone should be asking themselves right now, this second, is why isn’t oil $130 per barrel? Today. Right now. When you look around the world, there are a lot of indications which strongly suggest crude is being drastically underpriced. A lot of it has to do with uncertainty, and I mean that in a very real sense – you don’t know if tomorrow the war’s over and tanker traffic spools up which means the crude price collapses. But that doesn’t fully account for the sheer scale of what’...
Apr 01, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1351
Bond rates have completely reversed course and are falling again despite oil prices that haven’t budged. This is a clear warning that central bankers are already out of time for their rate hikes and inflation scenarios. In fact, inflation expectations in the marketplace which never got high to be begin with have collapsed in an ominous sign. Together with a surge in repo fails and other dollar tightening signals, including a sharp rise in the dollar exchange rate, the bond market is clearly worr...
Mar 31, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1350
Many top European bankers did not do themselves any favors when pressed on the private credit bust, preferring to hide behind semantics or deflect at every chance. One who stood out was Deutsch Bank’s vice chair of global macro who bluntly stated if it wasn’t for Iran the private credit crisis would be all anyone would be talking about right now. For whatever the political spin among the rest of them, European bank balance sheets don’t lie. Wait until you see what they’ve been up to. Eurodollar ...
Mar 30, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1348
It’s only been a little less than a month, but the economic and financial fallout from the Iran conflict is already taking shape as we search for that point of no return. Sentiment has dropped, economic activity is threatened, even stocks are now in correction territory across the board. While central bankers especially over in Europe are in full-blown inflation panic, it’s a much different story emerging from the real economy. This thing is quickly taking on all the characteristics of a full-bl...
Mar 30, 2026•23 min•Ep. 1349
The oil shock has moved way beyond merely being a price problem. The blockage at Hormuz has already created a very real physical shortage of fuel across much of Asia, and it’s now threatening to hit Europe according to the CEO of Shell Energy. It’s only been about four weeks but we’re seeing major disruptions already, from Australia to South Korea, India, Egypt. Among the hardest hit is the Philippines. There are reports today some airlines are being told to plan for rationing fuel in a few plac...
Mar 26, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1347
Another major development in private credit crisis - yes, it is a crisis now. Moody's downgraded a $13 billion KKR co-managed private credit fund, citing "asset quality challenges." This is a huge escalation for three key reasons we'll go over here. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're g...
Mar 25, 2026•40 min•Ep. 1346
Blackstone’s $83 billion BCred fund just reported its first monthly loss due to actual credit problems. However, it’s never credit losses that kill you; it’s always the forced selling, the liquidations. Financial crises begin with small credit losses and then snowball into something far greater because the issues here aren’t numbers on a spreadsheet and seemingly reasonable expected loss calculations. This all comes down to trust and information. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysi...
Mar 24, 2026•22 min•Ep. 1345
Global financial markets are all over the place. We’ve talked about commodities being crushed, getting liquidated due to serious and underappreciated funding stress. The other side of that, rising dollar and flight to safety. And on the flipside, growing risk aversion which has markets especially overseas rolling over. Meanwhile, bonds are struggling because central banks are beginning to really panic especially over in Europe. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre -------------...
Mar 23, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1344
