Liquidations, not mere selling. There's more going on behind the scenes than you think. Critical metals being liquidated means a growing worldwide dollar problem. Possibly a big one. While central bankers are running around talking about rate hikes because they wrongly believe oil prices are inflationary, where it actually matters we’re already seeing the total opposite only starting with gold’s worst week in forever. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ---------------------------...
Mar 22, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1343
Sales of newly built homes crashed by a massive 17.6% in January, with a 44% drop in the Northeast and 34% slide in the Midwest. Of course, everyone is trying to blame it on weather but sales were already weakening in December and those in the Western part of the country were down by a whopping 22%. It’s now like we’ve haven’t been following a macro bust in the property sector. Economists just don’t want to admit rate cuts didn’t produce the recovery they were expecting. And now homebuyers have ...
Mar 20, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1342
McDonalds is doing it again as the economy is now in a race against time. The fast food giant is creating a $3 value deal after having brought back the $5 value menu in the middle of 2024. The timing wasn’t an accident back then. That previous time, it was confirmation the labor market had indeed shifted to flat Beveridge - even if it took almost those two years for the payroll data to finally and fully pick up on it. But in company after company, we’re seeing major changes, not just McDs. Pepsi...
Mar 19, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1341
It was maybe inevitable that the oil shock would lead to a dollar shock especially around Asia. The sudden, sharp rise in oil prices is essentially a margin call in dollars which hits the biggest energy importers the hardest. Today, the biggest economy in Southeast Asia just tightened currency controls restricting dollar availability there, and confirming the monetary situation is in a precarious position already. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis -------------------------------...
Mar 18, 2026•23 min•Ep. 1340
Meta Platforms is reportedly considering laying off over 20% of its workforce. The company didn’t confirm anything, but it also didn’t deny the thrust of the rumor, either. The purpose of these theoretical job cuts does not appear to be replacing employees with AI bots, instead it sure looks like the company is trying desperately to conserve a lot cash which raises a bunch of questions about debt and debt markets. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis -------------------------------...
Mar 17, 2026•19 min•Ep. 1339
Deutsche Bank. Wells Fargo. Both global systemically important banks are sitting here watching their stocks get pounded in the same way as BlackRock or Blackstone. Thankfully, not as bad as Blue Owl. Yet. And it is for the same reason. We know the private credit industry and shadow banks are in really bad shape. Markets are already looking outside of them to who might be next to have pay for really bad decisions. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre ----------------------------...
Mar 16, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1338
A simply brutal reminder from Canada about the real state of the global economy. The Canadians backed up the US payroll number for February, except in Canada it was the largest loss of jobs since 2022. As one big bank economist put it, this is a “simply brutal” result. While everyone has been talking, really hoping for reflation maybe recovery, the opposite keeps showing up instead. Especially where it comes to employment. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ----------------------...
Mar 15, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1337
Now it’s Morgan Stanley’s turn. Yesterday it was Cliffwater. Before that BlackRock and Blackstone. Of course Blue Owl. Morgan Stanley’s $8 billion North Haven Private Income Fund becomes the latest shadow banking giant to both get hit with massive investor withdrawals and to deny most of them. Cliffwater also decided it was going to do the same. No wonder you keep hearing more and more people make 2008 comparisons – and there’s one more you definitely need keep in mind. Eurodollar University's M...
Mar 13, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1336
It is beginning to look more and more like a slow-motion shadow bank run. Yet another massive fund hit with largescale withdrawals. Not only that, the liquidity pressure also led to more asset sales. But those aren't even the worst of the day's news: that comes from JP Morgan and it has to do with COLLATERAL. ------------------------------------- Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanyi...
Mar 12, 2026•33 min•Ep. 1335
We’ve been covering the macro housing bust for some time, and while it’s still there another major problem has come up and for the same reasons. Mortgage delinquencies and even foreclosures have come into the conversation, especially in places like Texas. Rates continue to tick lower but no one is buying houses, home price growth has completely stalled, and now more borrowers are falling behind on their loans. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis -----------------------------------...
Mar 11, 2026•19 min•Ep. 1334
Chaos at the Asian open last night with uncontrolled panic buying sending oil prices up to as high as $120 per barrel. Thankfully, they backed down and actually ended the day down by 8%. Still, that wild ride isn't good, indicating the world is really struggling with the oil challenge. We're already seeing significant fallout across the world, from dollars to stocks. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ------------------------------------- Join us for our free webinar Thursday Mar...
Mar 10, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1333
Not one but two negative payrolls. That’s what we got from the latest update on the employment situation, a double dose of flat Beverage amidst a historic week in the oil market and another major escalation in the private credit bust. And all these things go together. The looming oil shock is coming at the worst possible time with employment already in this bad shape. And private credit, well, as I’ve been telling since last summer, negative payrolls would change everything. Eurodollar Universit...
Mar 09, 2026•22 min•Ep. 1332
Chaos in the energy patch sent both prices and spreads exploding. It was the latter - the blowout in spreads - that is now the most concerning for what it says about this growing oil shock. At almost historic levels, just a nickel short of setting a new record, this kind of intensity and upset is alarming. Here's why and what you need to know. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalat...
Mar 08, 2026•28 min•Ep. 1331
BlackRock's flagship private credit fund is getting hit with so many withdrawals the company has no choice but to start blocking these requests. It's another major escalation pointing to even more anxiety and maybe some panic in the credit market. The fact this shows up on a day when payrolls went negative yet again and oil has gone nuclear should not be dismissed, either. Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and ma...
Mar 07, 2026•29 min•Ep. 1330
Energy prices renewed their surge higher today. As it stands, WTI is now just shy of $80 per barrel, up 22% in a week. Wholesale gasoline is now above $2.60 per gallon, a 30% rise since last Thursday. These are the biggest short-term energy spikes we’ve seen since 2022. Because of that, we have to start seriously considering various potential paths for this burgeoning oil shock, up to and including a 1990 scenario where conflict in the Middle East sent energy prices skyrocketing and tipped a wea...
Mar 06, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1329
The Swiss National Bank just issued a very rare warning hinting at currency intervention in the franc. While there is a mini-panic mainly in the mainstream media over oil being inflationary, look instead at what is going on in Switzerland and how it got to be this way. The last few years of consumer prices and interest rates. They are instructive about what we should expect everywhere else – including what happens when the world gets hit with a major oil spike. Eurodollar University's Money &...
Mar 05, 2026•18 min•Ep. 1328
The oil spike has reached the global pain threshold unleashing liquidations and a scramble for liquidity. At the same time, another big development in private credit that is already spilling over into other parts of the marketplace. The dollar is jumping, never a good sign and no shortage of reasons why it is. Eurodollar University Money & Macro Analysis Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market move...
Mar 04, 2026•35 min•Ep. 1327
The conflict erupting with Iran has already impacted financial markets, though the initial impact has been pretty muted. Most of the effect has fallen on the energy sector and related, no surprise. Oil has surged above $70 per barrel, US benchmark, while wholesale gasoline has soared 17% just since Thursday. Interest rates are up though not in the way you might think. Instead, USTs are signaling something else - something big. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ------------------...
Mar 03, 2026•24 min•Ep. 1326
Thanks to Monarch for partnering with me! Start your free trial and get 50% off your first year of total money clarity using my link https://monarchmoney.yt.link/cy4DikN or code euro50. Former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey's latest firm, Block, announced it is laying off as much as 40% of its current workforce. The company also said it would rely on AI moving forward to take up any additional work, sparking renewed fears the technology is about unleash a torrent of unemployment. Joblessness is definit...
Mar 02, 2026•22 min•Ep. 1325
The credit market's terrible, horrible, no good, very bad week finishes off with yet another bankruptcy and more losses for the big Wall Street names. Worse, it's the same thing yet again: fraud and fake collateral. Plus, more bad news among BDCs has shares down. Dealer banks, however, continue to prepare for not only what we're seeing now, but looking ahead beyond it. Eurodollar University's Money and Macro Analysis Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit mar...
Feb 28, 2026•41 min•Ep. 1324
Just today over in Europe, two of the continent’s biggest insurance companies put out statements that show this thing has already gotten very serious. At the same time of course, European banks just bought another epic amount of govt bond safety, the second most in any month on record, after telling the ECB they’re highly risk averse and who can blame them with everything that keeps coming out. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ---------------------------------------------------...
Feb 27, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1323
Another day, several more critical development in the credit markets. Loss projections are soaring. A second fund stepped forward acknowledging asset sales (at lower prices). Big (related) shift in rates markets that ties in the Fed, yield curve, and everything else. Here we go over all three; what happened, what it all means. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ------------------------------------------------------ Eurodollar University's Free Guide (video) to interpreting market...
Feb 26, 2026•40 min•Ep. 1322
Now it’s Jamie Dimon's turn, JP Morgan’s highly visible CEO is the latest to make the 2008 comparison. Following up last year’s cockroach quip this time saying a lot of people in the financial industry have done dumb things. But here’s the thing, markets all over the world are starting to price it. The worry showing up in safe havens is maybe this really is happening - right now. From Canadian bonds to Swiss francs, Japan, China and yes Treasuries. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analy...
Feb 25, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1321
In the wake of Blue Owl’s shocking announcement last week basically trapping retail investors in a private credit fund they don’t want to be in, signs of fallout from it are trickling in. To begin with, private continues to sell off, Blue Owl especially. But it’s not just private credit, we’re seeing stress in other corners of the risky credit markets, too, which has a number of prominent analysts and observers wondering if maybe we are seeing too many signs that look too much like 2007. Eurodol...
Feb 24, 2026•19 min•Ep. 1320
Walmart has been one of the few to benefit from the difficult economy the past few years. It’s gotten to the point where even high income earners have become regular Walmart shoppers. But here’s the thing, this week when forecasting earnings for the year ahead, now even Walmart is a bit concerned over the possible further negative consequences of what it’s CFO called a “hiring recession.” Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre -----------------------------------------------------...
Feb 23, 2026•22 min•Ep. 1319
While Blue Owl’s blowup exploded the private credit mess back into the mainstream with yesterday’s first confirmation of Stage 2, there had been some building pressures in the monetary system leading up to it. Including a seemingly out of nowhere surge in borrowing from the Fed’s repo facility on Tuesday, a whopping $30 billion spike. And that’s not even the biggest part of this. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ------------------------------------------------------------------...
Feb 22, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1318
Credit Crisis Stage 2 has been observed. Stage 1 is when money flows out of a bubble but is roughly still balanced meaning some uncomfortable fund managers but no big consequences like forced selling. Stage 2 is when that balance unbalances leading to bigger problems like forced selling. Today, we got confirmation of forced selling for the first time...and a LOT more. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- This is the kinds of material we've been covering - at...
Feb 20, 2026•44 min•Ep. 1317
Stock market volatility has been moving higher since Christmas Eve as this undercurrent of anxiety refuses to go away. Some of it is AI related, sure, but deep down there is this nagging feeling the economy isn’t turning the corner like they all said it would. So where do you go to find clues whether or not that has been the case. A perfect place to start is global bellwether Switzerland – which just confirmed it is in recession. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ---------------...
Feb 19, 2026•19 min•Ep. 1316
After another month of even more deeply troubling banking data from China, S&P is wondering if the Chinese may be facing their Japanification moment as a key central bank rate just moved to a record low. Now, I don’t think they’re facing it; China is clearly there and the latest data confirms as much. The time scale is different, but when you’re talking about the biggest banks in the world – and the top four are all Chinese – you have to pay attention. Eurodollar University's Money & Mac...
Feb 18, 2026•22 min•Ep. 1315
Existing home sales utterly crashed in January. Yes, January is not a great month for real estate shopping and there was obviously less than ideal weather, however those don’t explain the 8.4% plunge in transactions. Analysts who were already factoring those other excuses only thought there would be a modest impact from them, not the biggest monthly drop in housing in four years. So much for that supposedly strong payroll report. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ---------------...
Feb 13, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1314
