We really, really messed up the jobs data the past few years, we got it almost completely wrong, but trust us, we’re good now. That’s what the BLS is saying today about its estimates for jobs and employment and right now no one is buying it. Why should they? The agency screwed up so badly it now admits there were 1.03 million fewer payrolls as of December than it previously thought. One million fewer payrolls. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis -----------------------------------...
Feb 12, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1313
The UK’s Prime Minister is hanging on for his career after a series of missteps has his own labor party almost in revolt. The current crisis was triggered by an ill-advised appointment of an ambassador to the US who is caught up in the Jeffrey Epstein mess. But that’s not really the issue. Once again, a government that came to power not even two years ago finds voters who can’t wait to throw it out of office. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ------------------------------------...
Feb 11, 2026•19 min•Ep. 1312
Thanks to Monarch for partnering with me! Start your free trial and get 50% off your first year of total money clarity using my link https://monarchmoney.yt.link/mFP5VcW or code euro50. Authorities in China are advising Chinese banks they need to seriously consider changing up their bond market allocations right now. Citing concentration risk as well as the possibility for volatility, regulators are supposedly trying to prevent depositories from buying bonds. If this sounds familiar, it should s...
Feb 10, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1311
It was a trio of reports that turned an already shaky market into a disorderly mess. Private credit stocks were hit hard as were cryptocurrencies after ADP, Challenger and a delayed release from the BLS each overwhelmed expectations. Just more negative fuel to the selling fire as the riskiest financial markets were reeling from the economic implications. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre -------------------------------------------------------------------------- EDU's Members...
Feb 09, 2026•23 min•Ep. 1310
European banks were asked what they thought about corporate credit opportunities in the coming year given that most officials, anyway, in Europe believe everything is picking up. As Christine Lagarde, head of the ECB, is so fond of saying, Europe, European interest rate policy, inflation, the economy, everything is in a good place. Except, the answer the banking sector sent back surprised everyone and is almost certainly going to play a role in market volatility like we’ve been seeing recently. ...
Feb 08, 2026•18 min•Ep. 1309
Widespread financial meltdown continued again today, slamming crypto, silver, and private credit particularly hard. After what appeared to be an early morning rally, it didn’t last as a range of more-than-disappointing labor data came flooding to the tape. The narrative of a 2026 pick up is not being picked up anywhere other than mainstream Economists. Eurodollar University Money and Macro Analysis
Feb 06, 2026•53 min•Ep. 1308
Pepsi is slashing prices for some of its most popular brands, some by 15%. The company said it has spent the past year listening to consumer feedback. Nah. What happened is always what happens in this economy and why there is no breakout inflation. Companies that do raise prices end up sacrificing volumes because their customers can’t afford to pay more. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ---------------------------------------------------------------- Eurodollar University LIVE ...
Feb 05, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1307
They thought they were reassuring debt markets over AI cash. Instead, the company kicked a hornet's nest, unleashing a MAJOR selloff that is sweeping through private credit. It isn't just the BDCs (publicly traded funds) this time, either. The asset managers themselves are now getting swept up in the money outflows. Eurodollar University Money & Macro Analysis
Feb 04, 2026•33 min•Ep. 1306
The selloff in precious metals, particularly silver, has extended into today’s session. One reason why, one additional reason why, we’re seeing reports of fraud emerge in heavy buyer China, including from a guy who’s apparently called “the hat.” It’s the kind of thing that usually comes up when big bubbles go up and then pop, so another sign that’s what’s happening here in the short run. Which raises another question, how far down might silver go in the near-term? Eurodollar University's Money &...
Feb 03, 2026•19 min•Ep. 1305
A key corner of the credit market is experiencing sustained and even accelerated selling at the end of January 2026. What we’re talking about is historically one of the most economically sensitive segments, a growing caution about the climate ahead. And it’s not the only one. From cryptocurrencies to the inability of the AI bubble to get going, the cracks continue to widen rather than fade away like everyone said they were going to. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre --------...
Feb 02, 2026•22 min•Ep. 1304
Consumer prices are never going to go back to where they were before the pandemic. This simple reason is they can’t. You think that since they went up, they can just go right back down. That’s not unlikely, it is impossible and I’m going to show you why with a very simple example. Now the implications of this economic fact are profound. In fact, it explains everything about the economy we have right now, from the labor market and the lack of jobs to, yes, affordability. Eurodollar University's M...
Feb 01, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1303
Has the rally in silver gone so far now that the metal’s price action is actually behaving like a meme stock? Or is there something more fundamental and deeply disturbing behind what precious metals are doing? Maybe we should consider how it isn’t a loss of faith in the dollar as so many people wrongly claim which is propelling both gold and silver right now, what if it is the growing mistrust in how the entire world works and fits together. Or used to. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro ...
Jan 30, 2026•52 min•Ep. 1302
After cutting 14,000 jobs back in October and denying there were more of them coming, Amazon confirmed yesterday there will be another 16,000 layoffs and made comments suggesting the company won’t be done even after then. These job cuts will only add to the worsening anxiety among American workers, who reminded everyone of those deep concerns in the latest plunge in consumer confidence. According to the most optimistic measure for it, from the Conference Board, confidence crashed to its lowest l...
Jan 29, 2026•23 min•Ep. 1301
One of BlackRock’s private credit funds has just resurrected the cockroach concerns over debt woes in the space. By announcing that it will have to write down 19% of its net asset value, the fund also discloses more areas of cockroach concerns beyond those we had already become aware of. While at the same time, further reminding everyone how everything that people were worried about before they need to keep worrying about and then some. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis --------...
Jan 28, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1300
An unprecedented shakeup at the very top of the Chinese military has shaken up the rest of the world. Xi Jinping didn’t just go after a longtime friend and ally, he has gone after everyone in what increasingly looks like a paranoid, Stalinist shakeup. But why? I’ve told you many times before about the economic pressure on China that has only intensified more recently. But that’s not the only thing. That’s where it starts, but where it ends is what is increasingly being confirmed as Cold War 2.0....
Jan 27, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1299
Billionaire investor Ray Dalio is warning we shouldn’t be focused on trade wars, instead the real concern is capital wars. In those, Dalio says there will be a reduced appetite for owning US government debt or any US assets. Maybe even including American stocks. The comments were made in the context of recent geopolitical flashpoints in Venezuela and Greenland. As always, there’s a lot of noise surrounding this kind of topic, but what does the evidence say? Eurodollar University's conversation w...
Jan 26, 2026•22 min•Ep. 1298
Thanks to Monarch for partnering with me! Get 50% off your first year by using my link https://monarchmoney.yt.link/xxoutOh or discount code euro50 when signing up for a free trial! Welcome to calm, confident money! #monarchpartner A huge arctic blast, the weather wedge, has sent natural gas prices soaring in historic fashion. Some futures prices surged by a whopping 75% in just five days leading up to what people are calling the storm of the century. Freezing cold. Snow. Ice sheets. Icemageddon...
Jan 25, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1297
The Japanese government bond market suffered a major meltdown this week that has shaken up a lot of people as they try to figure out what’s going on over there and how it might impact more than just government bonds as a class. One of the key factors that has emerged, however, is just how little selling it took to create these massive price swings. That has enormously profound implications. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis -------------------------------------------------------...
Jan 23, 2026•54 min•Ep. 1296
The US housing market seemed like it was moving in the right direction recently, some better results people said were lower mortgage rates finally starting to work. But then reality dropped like a hammer today when the nation’s largest realtor group reported a massive 9.3% drop in pending home sales for December, biggest monthly decline since 2020. Stunned analysts are trying to figure out why lower rates aren’t stimulating housing and what these latest results mean. Eurodollar University's Mone...
Jan 22, 2026•24 min•Ep. 1295
Macy’s is the latest retailer to admit to struggling in the current economic climate, closing several of what it calls fulfillment centers, basically warehouse facilities in Connecticut and Oklahoma and shedding thousands of those jobs. That comes in addition to even more store closings across the country. Why? Because only the wealthy are spending so the company wants to focus as much as possible on that segment. Macy’s is not alone. EDU LIVE PRESIDENT'S DAY FEBRUARY 2026 If you’re a serious in...
Jan 21, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1294
Thanks to Monarch for partnering with me! Get 50% off your first year by using my link https://monarchmoney.yt.link/eB2fzzP or discount code euro50 when signing up for a free trial! Welcome to calm, confident money! #monarchpartner Chinese retail sales just did something they’ve never done before outside of the lockdowns. At the same time, capital investment continues to legitimately crash, December was third month in a row of steep declines leading to the first yearly negative for it in China’s...
Jan 20, 2026•22 min•Ep. 1293
What is going on with Freddie Mac? The Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, which is Freddie’s official, has seen its stock utterly pummeled this past week, crashing by 25%. Since Freddie is one of the mortgage giants, this isn’t just some run of the mill equity. The story here appears to be tied up in a number of different angles, from GSE QE to its IPO, but the themes we keep coming back to are concerns over its cash and our jobs. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre -----...
Jan 19, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1292
Every financial crisis generally takes place in three steps. And while there aren’t bright, clear lines of separation between them, each one does have unique characteristics that allow us to get a sense of where things stand in the process. That’s the thing, cycles are processes and as this one might go through all three steps, each one represents an escalation in that process. We’re in Stage 1, that’s just the start. Stage 2, it’s getting serious. Make it all the way to three...well, you never ...
Jan 18, 2026•25 min•Ep. 1291
Today we’re going be unpacking the latest from closely watched indicators out of China: bank lending data, household credit, the movement of the yuan, and what a single real estate developer—China Vanke—tells us about debt and payments right now. Bank lending in 2025 fell to the lowest since 2018 largely because household lending utterly collapsed. Yes, it collapsed last year. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ---------------------------------------------------------------------...
Jan 16, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1290
The Japanese yen keeps tumbling and as it does it is tanking the bond market over there. What we have is the first case of a currency value setting interest rates, with, of course, the Bank of Japan helplessly caught in the middle. That helplessness is reinforced by the fact Japan’s currency is being closely paralleled by South Korea’s and others across Asia. The tumbling won and yen have led to government calls for stringent action, including from Treasury Secretary Bessent today. Eurodollar Un...
Jan 15, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1289
JP Morgan missed on its earnings after failing to sell as many bonds as it was expecting for its customers. At the same time, Jamie Dimon, the bank’s CEO, he of cockroach fame, was forced to acknowledge how the labor market had softened before then going on to describe Goldilocks anyway. This is something that has come up in a couple of other sources already, not Goldilocks though that is the Fed’s official position, too. No, bond issuance is looking weak heading into 2026, another one of those ...
Jan 14, 2026•22 min•Ep. 1288
Almost 40% of Canadian real estate funds have restricted access to investor funds, and that includes potential payouts. It’s a sign of how deep the housing bust in Canada has gotten to be, but also applies to the situation that’s spreading across global markets where it comes to the shadow bank matter. In fact, the UK’s house of lords urged the Bank of England to look into private credit risks “as a matter of urgency.” Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis --------------------------...
Jan 13, 2026•19 min•Ep. 1287
Call it GSE QE. The same day it was reported US housing construction fell to the lowest since 2020, the Trump administration announced it was going to direct the housing GSEs, Fannie mae and Freddie Mac, to buy $200 billion in mortgage securities. The idea is that those purchases will reduce mortgage borrowing costs and offer some aid to struggling households who might then consider buying a house previously out of their reach. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre -------------...
Jan 12, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1286
US consumers have basically stopped using their credit cards. According to the Fed’s latest data, revolving consumer credit declined again, the third time over the last seven months. And one of those other three was basically zero. There has been a clear change in attitude which means Americans aren’t just feeling pessimistic, they’re taking action about it. That is why consumer revolving credit is a critical cyclical signal, it draws together all the major components. Eurodollar University's Mo...
Jan 11, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1285
Blue Owl, a name we’ve gotten to know for all the wrong reasons, has been forced to come clean after getting sued by pretty much every class action securities lawyer in America, not only into admitting there was a wave of withdrawals but also promising to accommodate them over and above what it normally would. Not only does that further confirm the First stage of the credit cycle reverse, it actually sets up the second stage. In this video, we’re going to cover where everything in the credit cyc...
Jan 09, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1284
