This is simply insane – new car sales among American households making $75k or less have crashed by 30% since 2019. Car prices soared. Incomes didn’t. They can’t afford a new car. But it’s not just the lowest incomes. Those making between $75k and $150k have bought 7% fewer cars than in 2019. This is a lot more than the K-shaped economy and to call it an affordability crisis seriously understates the problem. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ------------------------------------...
Jan 08, 2026•18 min•Ep. 1283
Loss of momentum isn’t just happening in the US, it is very well synchronized globally with practically the same pattern showing up everywhere. Updates from neighbors Canada and Mexico show a deepening downturn at the end of last year, especially Mexico putting up its deepest contraction since April. Over in Europe, Germany fell back bringing Italy down with it. Plus, global bellwether Switzerland experienced its own “unexpectedly” sharp setback. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysi...
Jan 06, 2026•22 min•Ep. 1281
Commodities are going nuts right now, with copper now parabolic joining silver on the crazy train. Gold is lagging behind both, which is not a good sign for each’s ability to stay on the upside. Meanwhile, at the complete other end of the commodity spectrum is oil, not just in terms of prices but key spreads in Middle East markets. One of those just flipped for the first time in years, signaling growing worries about global demand. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis -------------...
Jan 06, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1282
The number of legendary investors calling this an AI bubble continues to climb, with Howard Marks, co-founder of Wall Street giant Oaktree flatly stating if AI isn’t conforming to the historical bubble pattern, it will be a first. But there are some key differences within that pattern that just aren’t being fully appreciated. Starting with how this AI bubble isn’t actually about the stock market. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre ---------------------------------------------...
Jan 05, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1280
Bull steepening on the Treasury curve, falling energy prices especially gasoline, the final look at the US economy in 2025 shows it losing momentum again as the new year begins. In fact, even mainstream Economists, the most optimistic bunch you’ll find, they’re growing concerned again, with Moody’s chief economist saying, quote, “nothing else can go wrong” because in his words, we’re already on the edge of recession. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ----------------------------...
Jan 04, 2026•22 min•Ep. 1279
There was an explosion, a record spike – and it’s not even close - in lending by European banks to European shadow banks in October and November. This spike in European bank lending wasn’t some newfound enthusiasm to take on risks. It was emergency lending, a shadow bank shadow bailout which was every bit the other side of the US$ repo tightness I’ve been telling you about. This surge in shadow bank borrowing in euros shows how widespread and global funding pressure has already been. Eurodollar ...
Jan 03, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1278
The Fed is going to need some more not-QE and fast. We’ve got the year-end surge in repo borrowing at its window that is already way more than expected. At the same time, front end Treasury bill yields tumble in what is looking more like collateral scarcity along the lines of repo fails. Plus, the rest of the yield curve spent the entire fourth quarter – doing nothing. Literally nothing - and that’s huge. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ----------------------------------------...
Jan 01, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1277
Massive protests have broken out in Iran as the economy there implodes. This is no longer an uncommon occurrence as we’re seeing more signs of the most dangerous phase of the economy. Spurred largely by younger generations who have born the brunt of economic suckitude their entire lives, political upheaval is spreading and intensifying – maybe presenting opportunity but either way it is, by far, the greatest risk the world faces in 2026. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis -------...
Dec 31, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1276
Repo fails just exploded, coming in at the highest weekly total since 2022. And this isn’t even year-end. This is mid-December. It’s the flat Beveridge economy that is exposing cracks in the credit markets. And along those lines, we’ve got an update on the Tricolor debacle and how it was actually uncovered that will knock your socks off u But it also does a really good job of explaining why there is so much risk aversion exploding throughout the monetary system. Eurodollar University's Money &am...
Dec 30, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1275
CarMax is back as a microcosm of the entire consumer economy. The company stumbled back in the spring then at the end of summer declared – no big deal - everything was turning around. Instead, not long after management eventually admitted it didn’t turn around which, this past week, was totally confirmed when CarMax reported sales that had basically crashed during the quarter. Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre ----------------------------------------------------------------...
Dec 29, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1274
The Bank of Japan keeps hiking its policy rate, Japanese bond yields continue to rise, yet no matter how high interest rates go over there the weaker the Japanese yen seems to get. And no one can figure out why. The government is stumped. Central bankers can only complain. And the yen is not the only one, but is a critical example of what everyone leaves out because they don’t really know what they’re looking at, or even looking for. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis -----------...
Dec 28, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1273
Repo fails, a measure of collateral flow throughout the entire financial system, soared to more than $300 billion as of the middle of December. It was the highest for any non-quarter end week going back to June 2023. At the same time, borrowing from the Fed’s repo facility is way up again as investors refuse to buy the spin from private credit that their portfolios are just fine and from central bankers who say the same thing about the economy. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ...
Dec 27, 2025•22 min•Ep. 1272
US GDP utterly crushed it in Q3 and that was following Q2 when output supposedly was well more than expected, so two quarters in a row of booming numbers. So why isn’t anyone buying it? To begin with, just look at gold and silver. Safe haven buying is literally off the charts. Bond yields didn’t react at all. And consumer confidence keeps falling deeper into recession territory. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis -------------------------------------------------------------------...
Dec 24, 2025•23 min•Ep. 1271
Back in October, foreigners sold a massive $61.2 billion in LT UST assets, the most since April. While that may sound like the “sell America” and Treasury rejection narrative from the summer, it’s actually proof that the Fed’s bank reserves are irrelevant. Remember October? Repo rates soaring. Use of the Fed’s repo facility skyrocketed. Cockroaches and garbage lending. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis -----------------------------------------------------------------------------...
Dec 23, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1270
Blue Owl is back, the beleaguered alternative fund manager making news this time by refusing to partner back up with beleaguered former AI bubble star Oracle. This is big, especially since before now Blue Owl and Oracle worked together on seemingly everything. We’ve even got Tether’s CEO feeling the winds shift, admitting how Bitcoin’s struggles, for example, are a reflection of both the credit cycle and bursting AI anxiety. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre ----------------...
Dec 22, 2025•22 min•Ep. 1269
Miami leads the nation in home de-listings, that is number of sellers who realize the housing situation is bad and getting worse, therefore simply pull their property off the market. De-listings nationally have soared this year, led by Miami and Florida. It wasn’t supposed to be like this. Sellers came back into the market thinking lower interest rates were going to lure buyers. Why wouldn’t they? That’s what everyone says. Falling rates are stimulus and real estate is the most sensitive to it. ...
Dec 21, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1268
Tariff inflation continues to go down in flames, yet central bankers refuse to let it go. The US CPI report for November was released today and the details should help put all this to rest – especially alongside the payroll numbers from earlier in the week. However, over in Europe both the ECB and Bank of England claim they need to be vigilant about tariff inflation at the same time job losses and unemployment pile up even higher. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis --------------...
Dec 19, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1267
The BLS confirmed the US labor market has indeed entered flat Beveridge territory with profound implications. What are they? What does this mean moving forward? Join me at 1:30pm ET to find out. Also, join me later tonight for a very special webinar where we are going to be doing a COMPREHENSIVE review of on set of consequences from flat Beveridge: cockroaches and the credit market cycle. We'll go over all the smoke rising from the space and assess whether or not there's fire behind it - and tak...
Dec 18, 2025•29 min•Ep. 1266
Chinese investment crashed yet again in November, the second straight month of bigtime declines. Only this time FAI was joined by consumer spending. Retail sales over in China also crashed last month, dropping by almost half a percent in November alone. That’s enormous. It follows terrible data on household lending and bank credit. All of it points to an increasingly familiar topic and condition: China big economic slide is sliding right onto flat Beveridge. Eurodollar University's Money & M...
Dec 17, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1265
So, Jay Powell just casually strolled to the podium at his press conference last week and announced the Fed now believes the US has been losing jobs at a rate of 20,000 per month. From strong and resilient to solid to, ah, so what we’re now shedding jobs by the tens of thousands per month. Do you see it yet? The Treasury curve does, which is why it is moving into its final form in this long un-inversion process, with the big moves taking shape and doing most of the reshaping right in Chair Powel...
Dec 16, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1264
IBM’s CEO said there is “no way” that the massive spending on AI and data centers will ever pay off. For the first time in this bubble cycle people are finally wondering if maybe he is right. It couldn’t have come at a more critical time in light of Oracle’s shocking results. And then Broadcom failed to live up to the hype. In many ways, AI is the last pillar holding the forgot how to grow economy together, from both investments and stock-fueled consumer spending. Eurodollar University's convers...
Dec 15, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1263
France’s President called it a matter of life and death for European industry. The head of the European Commission said it has reached “an inflection point.” The Chinese have been trying to export their way out of what is now a major downturn. The truth is, neither side has much choice; the Chinese have to do it and the Europeans have to start resisting it. What China just reported in banking and the economy shows they’re out of options even if it means sinking relations with an entire continent...
Dec 14, 2025•19 min•Ep. 1262
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EDU's Webinar Series Thursday December 17, 6pm ET A Trillion-Dollar Eurodollar Bomb is going Off on Wall Street The most important funding system in the world is flashing warning signals, and almost no one is paying attention. https://event.webinarjam.com/m9wym/register/n0rnxu7n --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EDU L...
Dec 12, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1261
Live replay on December FOMC decision. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EDU's Webinar Series Thursday December 17, 6pm ET A Trillion-Dollar Eurodollar Bomb is going Off on Wall Street The most important funding system in the world is flashing warning signals, and almost no one is paying attention. https://event.webinarjam.com/m9wym/register/n0rnxu7n --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EDU LIVE 2026 If ...
Dec 11, 2025•25 min•Ep. 1260
Swiss central bankers are being forced to choose between negative interest rates and negative consumer prices by the increasingly negative direction of the globally synchronized system. On a monthly basis, Switzerland’s CPI declined in November for the fourth straight month as the country tries to work through contractions in output and a small but noticeable rise in unemployment. This all should sound familiar because, again, globally synchronized. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Anal...
Dec 10, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1259
There is a debate raging on Wall Street and across the markets about what’s happening in private credit right now and what that might mean moving forward. We’ve gotten past the initial shock, the Tricolor and First Brands fiascos, the first round of hedge fund redemptions, so now what? Well, to begin with, there’s what banks are doing right now and then there are warnings still coming in from key players across the industry. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis If you’re a serious ...
Dec 09, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1258
The most important funding system in the world is flashing warning signals. Most people won't notice until it's too late. I'm hosting a free webinar to break down what's happening and what it means for your portfolio. https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/risks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Automotive insurance claims are estimated to have dropped around 9% so far this year. That sounds like a good thing, but it’s an ominous sign. There haven’t b...
Dec 08, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1257
The yen has made a huge move over the past seven months and no one can figure out why. According to every mainstream economic theory, JPY should be soaring not sinking. It’s got the government in Tokyo hollering about currency intervention claiming there is no fundamental reason for the yen’s plight. Except, there is and we just got more confirmation as household spending there utterly plunged in September and October. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis --------------------------...
Dec 07, 2025•19 min•Ep. 1256
After weeks of speculation, back and forth over bad theories on inflation and what seemed to be a steady stream of hawk-sounding Fed policymakers, the market has spoken. We know right now what the FOMC is going to do next Wednesday. But what comes after that is still somewhat up in the air, though not nearly as much as you might think given all the noise recently. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...
Dec 05, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1255
November now makes three of the last four months and four of the last six with negative private payrolls. According to ADP, the US private economy shed 32k jobs last month, the most yet in the cycle. And it turns the 6m average negative for the first time, so serious problems in labor – which are creating bigger ones in the housing market. According to the latest official numbers from the government, home prices fell for the fourth time in the last five months and that brought the annual rate of...
Dec 04, 2025•19 min•Ep. 1254
