Consumer products giant Proctor & Gamble just came out with an unusual warning about its core business, consumer products meaning consumers. The maker of Tide detergent, Mr. Clean, Pampers, Gilette and whole bunch of other brands you use every single day just said that sales were down “significantly” in October and that it likely continued right on through November. This tracks with where Christmas holiday shopping has been so far with Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Eurodollar University's M...
Dec 03, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1253
December begins with a decided risk-off mood in financial markets, led by more painful liquidations in crypto. Bitcoin starts off the month with a nearly 7% drop to what would be a new recent low. Why? Economic woes continue to dominate concerns. Starting with Chicago, ISM’s regional business barometer put up its largest single month decline in new orders in more than two years. Backlogs crashed by nearly 22 points to the lowest since March 2009. Its employment index fell to the worst since May ...
Dec 02, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1252
HP becomes the latest big name to announce major layoffs, said to be around 6000 more white collar jobs. It’s getting to the point where despite all the mainstream and social media attention, call it fixation, on the tariff inflation faction at the Fed, the latest economic update from the central bank has almost nothing in it about that. Instead, it’s cover-to-cover with worries about HP, Amazon, and all the smaller businesses we never hear about who nonetheless are finding themselves on the sam...
Dec 01, 2025•17 min•Ep. 1251
China sold a record amount of Treasuries last quarter, which is actually more confirmation of the monetary tightening story over the summer which is now spilling out into the mainstream in the form of elevated repo rates, SOFR, and repo borrowing from the Fed. At the same time and for very much related reasons, private foreign counterparties were buying huge amounts of, yes, US Treasuries. There was no rejection at all, quite the contrary all of it pointing to growing expectations for the fallou...
Nov 30, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1250
Repo. It’s back. Or more accurately, never really left. When we last left off with it, things were calming down which is not unusual in these circumstances. That didn’t mean it was a one-time, one-off matter, just that in the middle of the month there isn’t a whole lot going on. But now with the Thanksgiving holiday here and December approaching, repo rates are up, borrowing from the Fed is back, and in related developments the hedge fund-private credit world is getting spicier. Eurodollar Unive...
Nov 27, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1249
Despite half the Federal Reserve’s best efforts to take away the December rate cut, the bond market is signaling from top to bottom, back to front it doesn’t care one bit. The FOMC can spout off on tariff inflation, they can claim there is no way they’ll support lowering rates next month, yields are going down and taking inflation expectations with them. The bond market is making big moves despite KC Jeff and his federal funds band. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ------------...
Nov 26, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1248
India’s rupee broke, plunging and I mean plunging Friday to a new record low and once again embarrassing the country’s central bank which had been intervening heavily for the past month. The funny thing is, there really wasn’t much of a trigger to it, at least not on the surface. The rupee continues to be a major global bellwether that often has less to do with India specifically. This once again appears to be one of those cases especially with the dollar making big moves against other important...
Nov 25, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1247
Over half of American homes lost value over the last year, the highest number since...2012. More importantly, even the media is catching on that something big changed this summer in real estate. The reason why the housing market is retreating isn't interest rates. Lower mortgage costs have not sparked a turnaround in the face of all expectations they would. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis In a world where markets swing on every headline, focus matters. That’s why Eurodollar Un...
Nov 24, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1246
Nvidia was a bust. Not the company’s earnings and forecasts, those were stellar. Instead, it didn’t provide the buying boost everyone thought it would. Stocks lost ground. Bitcoin continues to get hammered, down by a third in roughly six weeks. What is going on here? The answer, or answers, are coming from the cockroaches. There’s more to the Blue Owl hedge fund story. Plus, Bitcoin is correlating with what we call the triple hooks. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ------------...
Nov 23, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1245
After Home Depot disappointed and Target got slammed, Walmart reported results that were above expectations because in this economic climate the Target and Home Depot’s losses are Walmart’s gains. And its strength came from all income brackets, though high-income Americans are increasingly turning to Walmart. That’s not good. But it does fit with the long-delayed payroll data that just came out, which you’ll be shocked to learn has another revision turning another monthly number negative. That m...
Nov 21, 2025•22 min•Ep. 1244
While everyone else is glued to Nvidia, the results from Home Depot and Target will have far more to say about the markets and a lot more. Plus others like TJ Maxx, Bitcoin and the surprising Fed minutes that has a lot to say about the status of December's rate cut. Bloomberg Wary Stock Bulls Eye Walmart, Target for Clues to Consumer Health https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-11-17/wary-stock-bulls-eye-walmart-target-for-clues-to-consumer-health?srnd=phx-economics-v2 Economic Times T...
Nov 20, 2025•25 min•Ep. 1243
We went from the economy is strong and resilient, credit markets are fine reaching for yield to big names like Jamie Dimon and now so-called bond king Jeffrey Gundlach openly talking about cockroaches and garbage lending that are looking more like 2006 and 2007 every day. We’ve even got news of more hedge fund redemptions. Unlike a few months ago, now all of a sudden the possibilities seem plausible to people who forever refused to even consider the idea. Eurodollar University's Money & Macr...
Nov 19, 2025•19 min•Ep. 1242
The European labor market is on the cusp of its own flat Beveridge moment. That danger was amplified by the third quarter contraction in the Swiss economy, which, as we know, is a key leading global indicator. And if all that wasn’t enough, a group of German Economists, of all people, just tore into the mainstream European narrative of Europe being in a good place. They even went so far as correctly, of course, crap all over the Berlin bazooka. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ...
Nov 18, 2025•19 min•Ep. 1241
An unprecedented slump in Chinese investment. That’s what one media outlet called it. I don’t think slump is the right word. Crash might be a more appropriate one. While that tends to be overused, the numbers show not in this case. Especially when they are backed up by a crash in household lending in China, too, as Chinese banks just put up more grim stats. And all of this confirmation of what I told you months ago, the something big has changed over there this summer. Eurodollar University's Mo...
Nov 17, 2025•19 min•Ep. 1240
Big moves across the risk markets this week. Bitcoin and crypto hammered. Repo back on the menu. WTI full contango (briefly). Plus, top officials at the New York Fed soft confirming the start of the next not-QE QE. What does it all mean? Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre What is a Eurodollar University membership? It’s where understanding the monetary world isn’t a mystery—it's a method. If you’re serious about your financial education and want clarity in a world of volatili...
Nov 16, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1239
Flat Beveridge strikes again. You know the drill. We’ve been stuck in forgot how to grow and its no-hire/no-fire labor market the past few years. That began to change last year, especially last summer when no-hiring somehow got to be even less hiring. Then last year and this year, no-firing became some firing, in other words, shifting to the flat part of the Beveridge curve. But what we’ve been getting more recently looks to be an escalation in firing. Verizon just announced it may be cutting 15...
Nov 14, 2025•23 min•Ep. 1238
The collapse and bankruptcy of another private credit supported firm has generated significant losses this week. But as I pointed out last week with the shuttered UBS sponsored hedge funds, it isn’t necessarily the amount of money being burned. It’s what each of these cockroaches reveals, and how they add to the growing mistrust about the entire private credit shadow banking network. That’s the real danger which could threaten to unravel a whole lot more than a few troubled firms. Eurodollar Uni...
Nov 13, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1237
Fast food chain Wendy's said it’s closing hundreds more US locations than previously announced because customers can’t afford to eat there. It fits with what McDonalds US President said last week about how the entire industry is fighting for contracting traffic. It sounds practically Chinese talking about oversupply of cheap hamburgers and chicken nuggets. But as we know only too well from China’s economy, it isn’t too much production it is the lack of demand. Eurodollar University's Money &...
Nov 12, 2025•19 min•Ep. 1236
The federal government may be opening back up but the administration floating a tariff dividend is the real news here. It’s yet another dose of reality showing the stock market is not that reality. Americans are struggling and the timing behind this dividend is transparently in response to worsening economic conditions. After all, more Americans say they think unemployment is coming than at any time since 1980. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis In a world where markets swing on ...
Nov 11, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1235
CarMax sacked their CEO after preannouncing just brutal results for an industry already reeling and at the epicenter of the current ongoing breakdown in credit markets. The stock plunged 25% Thursday when management disclosed unit sales are looking to crash by 8 to 12% in the latest quarter. Relatedly, consumer confidence plunged to record and near-record lows...and it has little to do with the govt shutdown. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre --------------------------------...
Nov 10, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1234
UBS is reportedly closing down not one but two hedge funds, in a more that raises a lot of questions but also some very uncomfortable parallels to 2007. One of those funds is exposed to First Brands, so understandable. The other...isn't. And that raises the prospect of the R-word; in this case, that does not stand for recession, rather its uglier monetary twin. Bloomberg UBS Winds Down O’Connor Funds in Sign of First Brands Strain https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-06/ubs-to-wind-do...
Nov 08, 2025•29 min•Ep. 1233
The most October job cuts in over twenty years. More than October 2008, if you’re keeping score. While that doesn’t mean this is a repeat of 2008, can we all finally admit this is a really serious situation? And as the flat Beveridge curve emerges more clearly, the rising unemployment it represents is also causing collateral damage, pun intended. The New York Fed said yesterday auto, credit card and student loan delinquencies hit levels, well you’ll have to see. Eurodollar University's Money &am...
Nov 07, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1232
The dollar is accelerating and not in the direction most people were anticipating, to the point it has rattled the entire cryptocurrency space. That’s why cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin just got hit with a major selloff this week as the dollar debasement theme which had driven their latest surge comes up completely empty. More important than that, however, the dollar is accelerating higher which signals quite a lot all its own. But what? You can see how this gets confusing with all this unnatural...
Nov 06, 2025•22 min•Ep. 1231
Not only is retail giant Target not committing to the big seasonal hiring it always does, the company is actually laying off nearly 2000 of its corporate staff in its biggest management and job shakeup in years. Target is merely the latest “one-off” big name to announce job cuts. No wonder consumer confidence just took another huge hit and that was from the one survey that has held up the best this year. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis What is a Eurodollar University membershi...
Nov 05, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1230
The cash squeeze in wholesale money markets that we’ve been following got a whole more exciting on Friday, and now we have the full set of numbers on it. Interest rates soared the most since 2020 further proving the Federal Reserve’s program which is supposed to keep this from happening doesn’t keep it from happening. Imagine my shock. We also know that there were plenty of spare reserves available, too. And with more borrowing from the Fed again this morning so far, we have to consider the ques...
Nov 04, 2025•22 min•Ep. 1229
The ECB this week held its policy rate right at 2% with policymakers out in force claiming to everyone who might listen they’re likely done at that level. Instead, GDP data from all over the continent just came out and showed there’s more pringles yet to come from Europe. But there’s also one big factor here few people are considering and it has to do with the 2% level itself. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis In a world where markets swing on every headline, focus matters. That...
Nov 03, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1228
New home sales in China collapsed by 42% in October when compared to last October, representing more than just another setback for the beleaguered Chinese real estate market, the world’s largest asset class. This is a major problem for Chinese banks, not that they were expecting different. So, we see interest rates are back to moving lower, setting multi-month lows with the latest short-lived stretch of optimism based on Chinese tech stocks being burst yet again by the reality stocks are not rea...
Nov 02, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1227
Nov 01, 2025•17 min•Ep. 1226
The reason why Fed Chair Jay Powell didn’t want to commit to a December rate cut is simple. A number of voting members at the FOMC are not convinced the weak labor market is actually all that weak. Sure, the numbers don’t look good, but they’re wonder if it is real. Well, Chipotle and Kraft-Heinz would like to answer them with a pair of serious warnings about what they’re seeing from consumers. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ---------------------------------------------------...
Oct 31, 2025•17 min•Ep. 1225
FOMC will cut rates today but what will officials say, or do, about the growing repo mess? Find out as we react to the Fed's decisions and Powell's press statements. Eurodollar University’s Money and Macro Analysis
Oct 30, 2025•28 min•Ep. 1224
