Target is throwing in the towel on its previous losing strategy. Like many businesses, it tried to raise prices only to find its customers going elsewhere, largely to Walmart. Now Target is slashing its prices including on the towel it just threw in. The retail giant simply has no other choice given the sudden change in consumer behavior we’re seeing across the economic landscape. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Target cuts prices on 3,000 items as stubborn inflation keeps US ...
Apr 10, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1359
Several countries across Asia are confirming they experienced major dollar funding losses last month amidst a cash crunch on surging demand for money to buy oil. Officials in Taiwan, Indonesia, India and in other places have had to scramble to contain the monetary pressure, causing several of them to expend significant reserves just to keep their currency values from plunging. Or, plunging more than they did. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ------------------------------------...
Apr 09, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1358
Airports are canceling flights right now due fuel shortages and fears they will worsen. Airlines are including those in the US are already raising bag fees and other costs trying to pass along the doubling in jet fuel prices to passengers. Meanwhile, the international energy agency’s chief says the current oil crisis is worse than 1973, 1979, and 2022 combined. The thing is, that sounds crazy but sadly it’s not and we’re just now seeing the preliminary effects of Hormuz at the forefront in air t...
Apr 08, 2026•22 min•Ep. 1357
Jamie Dimon, the head of the country’s largest bank, wrote his annual shareholder letter accompanying the firm’s annual report. Filled with numerous charts touting the company’s successes and thousands of words reinforcing them, it is a single one that sticks out like a sore thumb and therefore defines the entire effort. And, yes, it is about the private credit situation. Of that, he said “probably.” Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ---------------------------------------------...
Apr 07, 2026•22 min•Ep. 1356
Almost four hundred thousand American workers dropped out of the labor force in March, setting yet a new low in labor participation. Why? There are no jobs, a fact confirmed by both the employment estimate plus an utterly dismal hiring rate from JOLTS, one that rivaled January and February 2009. There’s more, too. S&P Global said the services sector contracted for the first time in three years last month and a decline in its employment index, showing how the oil price shock is already starti...
Apr 06, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1355
Oil prices are absolutely soaring...AND CRASHING. Yes, at the same time. The main US petroleum benchmark surged by a whopping $11.42 a barrel on Thursday alone, the last trading day before the Good Friday holiday. And one key benchmark clocked in above $140. Yet, the rest of oil futures aren’t soaring at all. In fact, contracts for oil early next year are under $70 per barrel right now - more importantly they’ve been falling for a couple weeks already. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro A...
Apr 05, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1354
First, we have our "subprime is contained" moment from the Fed. Second, the run on Blue Owl is "unprecedented." Third, and more important than either of those, it's ***who*** is doing the running. In its disclosure, the sad owl let slip the truth underneath more ridiculous spin. When investors demand 20% to 40% out of your top funds, it's finally time to stop pretending this is all nothing. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis -------------------------------------------------------...
Apr 03, 2026•41 min•Ep. 1353
Thanks to Monarch for partnering with me! Start your free trial and get 50% off your first year of total money clarity using my link https://monarchmoney.yt.link/WW7Xqyc or code euro50. Oracle announced it will be laying off tens of thousands of its employees in an attempt to save cash. Not that long ago the company could borrow any insane amount it wanted. In other words, the proposed job cuts at Oracle offer more confirmation of credit market stress. So do the layoffs Block had announced in la...
Apr 02, 2026•22 min•Ep. 1352
The question everyone should be asking themselves right now, this second, is why isn’t oil $130 per barrel? Today. Right now. When you look around the world, there are a lot of indications which strongly suggest crude is being drastically underpriced. A lot of it has to do with uncertainty, and I mean that in a very real sense – you don’t know if tomorrow the war’s over and tanker traffic spools up which means the crude price collapses. But that doesn’t fully account for the sheer scale of what’...
Apr 01, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1351
Bond rates have completely reversed course and are falling again despite oil prices that haven’t budged. This is a clear warning that central bankers are already out of time for their rate hikes and inflation scenarios. In fact, inflation expectations in the marketplace which never got high to be begin with have collapsed in an ominous sign. Together with a surge in repo fails and other dollar tightening signals, including a sharp rise in the dollar exchange rate, the bond market is clearly worr...
Mar 31, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1350
Many top European bankers did not do themselves any favors when pressed on the private credit bust, preferring to hide behind semantics or deflect at every chance. One who stood out was Deutsch Bank’s vice chair of global macro who bluntly stated if it wasn’t for Iran the private credit crisis would be all anyone would be talking about right now. For whatever the political spin among the rest of them, European bank balance sheets don’t lie. Wait until you see what they’ve been up to. Eurodollar ...
Mar 30, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1348
It’s only been a little less than a month, but the economic and financial fallout from the Iran conflict is already taking shape as we search for that point of no return. Sentiment has dropped, economic activity is threatened, even stocks are now in correction territory across the board. While central bankers especially over in Europe are in full-blown inflation panic, it’s a much different story emerging from the real economy. This thing is quickly taking on all the characteristics of a full-bl...
Mar 30, 2026•23 min•Ep. 1349
The oil shock has moved way beyond merely being a price problem. The blockage at Hormuz has already created a very real physical shortage of fuel across much of Asia, and it’s now threatening to hit Europe according to the CEO of Shell Energy. It’s only been about four weeks but we’re seeing major disruptions already, from Australia to South Korea, India, Egypt. Among the hardest hit is the Philippines. There are reports today some airlines are being told to plan for rationing fuel in a few plac...
Mar 26, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1347
Another major development in private credit crisis - yes, it is a crisis now. Moody's downgraded a $13 billion KKR co-managed private credit fund, citing "asset quality challenges." This is a huge escalation for three key reasons we'll go over here. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're g...
Mar 25, 2026•40 min•Ep. 1346
Blackstone’s $83 billion BCred fund just reported its first monthly loss due to actual credit problems. However, it’s never credit losses that kill you; it’s always the forced selling, the liquidations. Financial crises begin with small credit losses and then snowball into something far greater because the issues here aren’t numbers on a spreadsheet and seemingly reasonable expected loss calculations. This all comes down to trust and information. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysi...
Mar 24, 2026•22 min•Ep. 1345
Global financial markets are all over the place. We’ve talked about commodities being crushed, getting liquidated due to serious and underappreciated funding stress. The other side of that, rising dollar and flight to safety. And on the flipside, growing risk aversion which has markets especially overseas rolling over. Meanwhile, bonds are struggling because central banks are beginning to really panic especially over in Europe. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre -------------...
Mar 23, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1344
Liquidations, not mere selling. There's more going on behind the scenes than you think. Critical metals being liquidated means a growing worldwide dollar problem. Possibly a big one. While central bankers are running around talking about rate hikes because they wrongly believe oil prices are inflationary, where it actually matters we’re already seeing the total opposite only starting with gold’s worst week in forever. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ---------------------------...
Mar 22, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1343
Sales of newly built homes crashed by a massive 17.6% in January, with a 44% drop in the Northeast and 34% slide in the Midwest. Of course, everyone is trying to blame it on weather but sales were already weakening in December and those in the Western part of the country were down by a whopping 22%. It’s now like we’ve haven’t been following a macro bust in the property sector. Economists just don’t want to admit rate cuts didn’t produce the recovery they were expecting. And now homebuyers have ...
Mar 20, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1342
McDonalds is doing it again as the economy is now in a race against time. The fast food giant is creating a $3 value deal after having brought back the $5 value menu in the middle of 2024. The timing wasn’t an accident back then. That previous time, it was confirmation the labor market had indeed shifted to flat Beveridge - even if it took almost those two years for the payroll data to finally and fully pick up on it. But in company after company, we’re seeing major changes, not just McDs. Pepsi...
Mar 19, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1341
It was maybe inevitable that the oil shock would lead to a dollar shock especially around Asia. The sudden, sharp rise in oil prices is essentially a margin call in dollars which hits the biggest energy importers the hardest. Today, the biggest economy in Southeast Asia just tightened currency controls restricting dollar availability there, and confirming the monetary situation is in a precarious position already. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis -------------------------------...
Mar 18, 2026•23 min•Ep. 1340
Meta Platforms is reportedly considering laying off over 20% of its workforce. The company didn’t confirm anything, but it also didn’t deny the thrust of the rumor, either. The purpose of these theoretical job cuts does not appear to be replacing employees with AI bots, instead it sure looks like the company is trying desperately to conserve a lot cash which raises a bunch of questions about debt and debt markets. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis -------------------------------...
Mar 17, 2026•19 min•Ep. 1339
Deutsche Bank. Wells Fargo. Both global systemically important banks are sitting here watching their stocks get pounded in the same way as BlackRock or Blackstone. Thankfully, not as bad as Blue Owl. Yet. And it is for the same reason. We know the private credit industry and shadow banks are in really bad shape. Markets are already looking outside of them to who might be next to have pay for really bad decisions. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre ----------------------------...
Mar 16, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1338
A simply brutal reminder from Canada about the real state of the global economy. The Canadians backed up the US payroll number for February, except in Canada it was the largest loss of jobs since 2022. As one big bank economist put it, this is a “simply brutal” result. While everyone has been talking, really hoping for reflation maybe recovery, the opposite keeps showing up instead. Especially where it comes to employment. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ----------------------...
Mar 15, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1337
Now it’s Morgan Stanley’s turn. Yesterday it was Cliffwater. Before that BlackRock and Blackstone. Of course Blue Owl. Morgan Stanley’s $8 billion North Haven Private Income Fund becomes the latest shadow banking giant to both get hit with massive investor withdrawals and to deny most of them. Cliffwater also decided it was going to do the same. No wonder you keep hearing more and more people make 2008 comparisons – and there’s one more you definitely need keep in mind. Eurodollar University's M...
Mar 13, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1336
It is beginning to look more and more like a slow-motion shadow bank run. Yet another massive fund hit with largescale withdrawals. Not only that, the liquidity pressure also led to more asset sales. But those aren't even the worst of the day's news: that comes from JP Morgan and it has to do with COLLATERAL. ------------------------------------- Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanyi...
Mar 12, 2026•33 min•Ep. 1335
We’ve been covering the macro housing bust for some time, and while it’s still there another major problem has come up and for the same reasons. Mortgage delinquencies and even foreclosures have come into the conversation, especially in places like Texas. Rates continue to tick lower but no one is buying houses, home price growth has completely stalled, and now more borrowers are falling behind on their loans. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis -----------------------------------...
Mar 11, 2026•19 min•Ep. 1334
Chaos at the Asian open last night with uncontrolled panic buying sending oil prices up to as high as $120 per barrel. Thankfully, they backed down and actually ended the day down by 8%. Still, that wild ride isn't good, indicating the world is really struggling with the oil challenge. We're already seeing significant fallout across the world, from dollars to stocks. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ------------------------------------- Join us for our free webinar Thursday Mar...
Mar 10, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1333
Not one but two negative payrolls. That’s what we got from the latest update on the employment situation, a double dose of flat Beverage amidst a historic week in the oil market and another major escalation in the private credit bust. And all these things go together. The looming oil shock is coming at the worst possible time with employment already in this bad shape. And private credit, well, as I’ve been telling since last summer, negative payrolls would change everything. Eurodollar Universit...
Mar 09, 2026•22 min•Ep. 1332
Chaos in the energy patch sent both prices and spreads exploding. It was the latter - the blowout in spreads - that is now the most concerning for what it says about this growing oil shock. At almost historic levels, just a nickel short of setting a new record, this kind of intensity and upset is alarming. Here's why and what you need to know. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalat...
Mar 08, 2026•28 min•Ep. 1331
BlackRock's flagship private credit fund is getting hit with so many withdrawals the company has no choice but to start blocking these requests. It's another major escalation pointing to even more anxiety and maybe some panic in the credit market. The fact this shows up on a day when payrolls went negative yet again and oil has gone nuclear should not be dismissed, either. Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and ma...
Mar 07, 2026•29 min•Ep. 1330
