Energy prices renewed their surge higher today. As it stands, WTI is now just shy of $80 per barrel, up 22% in a week. Wholesale gasoline is now above $2.60 per gallon, a 30% rise since last Thursday. These are the biggest short-term energy spikes we’ve seen since 2022. Because of that, we have to start seriously considering various potential paths for this burgeoning oil shock, up to and including a 1990 scenario where conflict in the Middle East sent energy prices skyrocketing and tipped a wea...
Mar 06, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1329
The Swiss National Bank just issued a very rare warning hinting at currency intervention in the franc. While there is a mini-panic mainly in the mainstream media over oil being inflationary, look instead at what is going on in Switzerland and how it got to be this way. The last few years of consumer prices and interest rates. They are instructive about what we should expect everywhere else – including what happens when the world gets hit with a major oil spike. Eurodollar University's Money &...
Mar 05, 2026•18 min•Ep. 1328
The oil spike has reached the global pain threshold unleashing liquidations and a scramble for liquidity. At the same time, another big development in private credit that is already spilling over into other parts of the marketplace. The dollar is jumping, never a good sign and no shortage of reasons why it is. Eurodollar University Money & Macro Analysis Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market move...
Mar 04, 2026•35 min•Ep. 1327
The conflict erupting with Iran has already impacted financial markets, though the initial impact has been pretty muted. Most of the effect has fallen on the energy sector and related, no surprise. Oil has surged above $70 per barrel, US benchmark, while wholesale gasoline has soared 17% just since Thursday. Interest rates are up though not in the way you might think. Instead, USTs are signaling something else - something big. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ------------------...
Mar 03, 2026•24 min•Ep. 1326
Thanks to Monarch for partnering with me! Start your free trial and get 50% off your first year of total money clarity using my link https://monarchmoney.yt.link/cy4DikN or code euro50. Former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey's latest firm, Block, announced it is laying off as much as 40% of its current workforce. The company also said it would rely on AI moving forward to take up any additional work, sparking renewed fears the technology is about unleash a torrent of unemployment. Joblessness is definit...
Mar 02, 2026•22 min•Ep. 1325
The credit market's terrible, horrible, no good, very bad week finishes off with yet another bankruptcy and more losses for the big Wall Street names. Worse, it's the same thing yet again: fraud and fake collateral. Plus, more bad news among BDCs has shares down. Dealer banks, however, continue to prepare for not only what we're seeing now, but looking ahead beyond it. Eurodollar University's Money and Macro Analysis Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit mar...
Feb 28, 2026•41 min•Ep. 1324
Just today over in Europe, two of the continent’s biggest insurance companies put out statements that show this thing has already gotten very serious. At the same time of course, European banks just bought another epic amount of govt bond safety, the second most in any month on record, after telling the ECB they’re highly risk averse and who can blame them with everything that keeps coming out. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ---------------------------------------------------...
Feb 27, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1323
Another day, several more critical development in the credit markets. Loss projections are soaring. A second fund stepped forward acknowledging asset sales (at lower prices). Big (related) shift in rates markets that ties in the Fed, yield curve, and everything else. Here we go over all three; what happened, what it all means. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ------------------------------------------------------ Eurodollar University's Free Guide (video) to interpreting market...
Feb 26, 2026•40 min•Ep. 1322
Now it’s Jamie Dimon's turn, JP Morgan’s highly visible CEO is the latest to make the 2008 comparison. Following up last year’s cockroach quip this time saying a lot of people in the financial industry have done dumb things. But here’s the thing, markets all over the world are starting to price it. The worry showing up in safe havens is maybe this really is happening - right now. From Canadian bonds to Swiss francs, Japan, China and yes Treasuries. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analy...
Feb 25, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1321
In the wake of Blue Owl’s shocking announcement last week basically trapping retail investors in a private credit fund they don’t want to be in, signs of fallout from it are trickling in. To begin with, private continues to sell off, Blue Owl especially. But it’s not just private credit, we’re seeing stress in other corners of the risky credit markets, too, which has a number of prominent analysts and observers wondering if maybe we are seeing too many signs that look too much like 2007. Eurodol...
Feb 24, 2026•19 min•Ep. 1320
Walmart has been one of the few to benefit from the difficult economy the past few years. It’s gotten to the point where even high income earners have become regular Walmart shoppers. But here’s the thing, this week when forecasting earnings for the year ahead, now even Walmart is a bit concerned over the possible further negative consequences of what it’s CFO called a “hiring recession.” Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre -----------------------------------------------------...
Feb 23, 2026•22 min•Ep. 1319
While Blue Owl’s blowup exploded the private credit mess back into the mainstream with yesterday’s first confirmation of Stage 2, there had been some building pressures in the monetary system leading up to it. Including a seemingly out of nowhere surge in borrowing from the Fed’s repo facility on Tuesday, a whopping $30 billion spike. And that’s not even the biggest part of this. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ------------------------------------------------------------------...
Feb 22, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1318
Credit Crisis Stage 2 has been observed. Stage 1 is when money flows out of a bubble but is roughly still balanced meaning some uncomfortable fund managers but no big consequences like forced selling. Stage 2 is when that balance unbalances leading to bigger problems like forced selling. Today, we got confirmation of forced selling for the first time...and a LOT more. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- This is the kinds of material we've been covering - at...
Feb 20, 2026•44 min•Ep. 1317
Stock market volatility has been moving higher since Christmas Eve as this undercurrent of anxiety refuses to go away. Some of it is AI related, sure, but deep down there is this nagging feeling the economy isn’t turning the corner like they all said it would. So where do you go to find clues whether or not that has been the case. A perfect place to start is global bellwether Switzerland – which just confirmed it is in recession. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ---------------...
Feb 19, 2026•19 min•Ep. 1316
After another month of even more deeply troubling banking data from China, S&P is wondering if the Chinese may be facing their Japanification moment as a key central bank rate just moved to a record low. Now, I don’t think they’re facing it; China is clearly there and the latest data confirms as much. The time scale is different, but when you’re talking about the biggest banks in the world – and the top four are all Chinese – you have to pay attention. Eurodollar University's Money & Mac...
Feb 18, 2026•22 min•Ep. 1315
Existing home sales utterly crashed in January. Yes, January is not a great month for real estate shopping and there was obviously less than ideal weather, however those don’t explain the 8.4% plunge in transactions. Analysts who were already factoring those other excuses only thought there would be a modest impact from them, not the biggest monthly drop in housing in four years. So much for that supposedly strong payroll report. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ---------------...
Feb 13, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1314
We really, really messed up the jobs data the past few years, we got it almost completely wrong, but trust us, we’re good now. That’s what the BLS is saying today about its estimates for jobs and employment and right now no one is buying it. Why should they? The agency screwed up so badly it now admits there were 1.03 million fewer payrolls as of December than it previously thought. One million fewer payrolls. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis -----------------------------------...
Feb 12, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1313
The UK’s Prime Minister is hanging on for his career after a series of missteps has his own labor party almost in revolt. The current crisis was triggered by an ill-advised appointment of an ambassador to the US who is caught up in the Jeffrey Epstein mess. But that’s not really the issue. Once again, a government that came to power not even two years ago finds voters who can’t wait to throw it out of office. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ------------------------------------...
Feb 11, 2026•19 min•Ep. 1312
Thanks to Monarch for partnering with me! Start your free trial and get 50% off your first year of total money clarity using my link https://monarchmoney.yt.link/mFP5VcW or code euro50. Authorities in China are advising Chinese banks they need to seriously consider changing up their bond market allocations right now. Citing concentration risk as well as the possibility for volatility, regulators are supposedly trying to prevent depositories from buying bonds. If this sounds familiar, it should s...
Feb 10, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1311
It was a trio of reports that turned an already shaky market into a disorderly mess. Private credit stocks were hit hard as were cryptocurrencies after ADP, Challenger and a delayed release from the BLS each overwhelmed expectations. Just more negative fuel to the selling fire as the riskiest financial markets were reeling from the economic implications. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre -------------------------------------------------------------------------- EDU's Members...
Feb 09, 2026•23 min•Ep. 1310
European banks were asked what they thought about corporate credit opportunities in the coming year given that most officials, anyway, in Europe believe everything is picking up. As Christine Lagarde, head of the ECB, is so fond of saying, Europe, European interest rate policy, inflation, the economy, everything is in a good place. Except, the answer the banking sector sent back surprised everyone and is almost certainly going to play a role in market volatility like we’ve been seeing recently. ...
Feb 08, 2026•18 min•Ep. 1309
Widespread financial meltdown continued again today, slamming crypto, silver, and private credit particularly hard. After what appeared to be an early morning rally, it didn’t last as a range of more-than-disappointing labor data came flooding to the tape. The narrative of a 2026 pick up is not being picked up anywhere other than mainstream Economists. Eurodollar University Money and Macro Analysis
Feb 06, 2026•53 min•Ep. 1308
Pepsi is slashing prices for some of its most popular brands, some by 15%. The company said it has spent the past year listening to consumer feedback. Nah. What happened is always what happens in this economy and why there is no breakout inflation. Companies that do raise prices end up sacrificing volumes because their customers can’t afford to pay more. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ---------------------------------------------------------------- Eurodollar University LIVE ...
Feb 05, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1307
They thought they were reassuring debt markets over AI cash. Instead, the company kicked a hornet's nest, unleashing a MAJOR selloff that is sweeping through private credit. It isn't just the BDCs (publicly traded funds) this time, either. The asset managers themselves are now getting swept up in the money outflows. Eurodollar University Money & Macro Analysis
Feb 04, 2026•33 min•Ep. 1306
The selloff in precious metals, particularly silver, has extended into today’s session. One reason why, one additional reason why, we’re seeing reports of fraud emerge in heavy buyer China, including from a guy who’s apparently called “the hat.” It’s the kind of thing that usually comes up when big bubbles go up and then pop, so another sign that’s what’s happening here in the short run. Which raises another question, how far down might silver go in the near-term? Eurodollar University's Money &...
Feb 03, 2026•19 min•Ep. 1305
A key corner of the credit market is experiencing sustained and even accelerated selling at the end of January 2026. What we’re talking about is historically one of the most economically sensitive segments, a growing caution about the climate ahead. And it’s not the only one. From cryptocurrencies to the inability of the AI bubble to get going, the cracks continue to widen rather than fade away like everyone said they were going to. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre --------...
Feb 02, 2026•22 min•Ep. 1304
Consumer prices are never going to go back to where they were before the pandemic. This simple reason is they can’t. You think that since they went up, they can just go right back down. That’s not unlikely, it is impossible and I’m going to show you why with a very simple example. Now the implications of this economic fact are profound. In fact, it explains everything about the economy we have right now, from the labor market and the lack of jobs to, yes, affordability. Eurodollar University's M...
Feb 01, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1303
Has the rally in silver gone so far now that the metal’s price action is actually behaving like a meme stock? Or is there something more fundamental and deeply disturbing behind what precious metals are doing? Maybe we should consider how it isn’t a loss of faith in the dollar as so many people wrongly claim which is propelling both gold and silver right now, what if it is the growing mistrust in how the entire world works and fits together. Or used to. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro ...
Jan 30, 2026•52 min•Ep. 1302
After cutting 14,000 jobs back in October and denying there were more of them coming, Amazon confirmed yesterday there will be another 16,000 layoffs and made comments suggesting the company won’t be done even after then. These job cuts will only add to the worsening anxiety among American workers, who reminded everyone of those deep concerns in the latest plunge in consumer confidence. According to the most optimistic measure for it, from the Conference Board, confidence crashed to its lowest l...
Jan 29, 2026•23 min•Ep. 1301
One of BlackRock’s private credit funds has just resurrected the cockroach concerns over debt woes in the space. By announcing that it will have to write down 19% of its net asset value, the fund also discloses more areas of cockroach concerns beyond those we had already become aware of. While at the same time, further reminding everyone how everything that people were worried about before they need to keep worrying about and then some. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis --------...
Jan 28, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1300
