For more information on 21shares and to sign up for their newsletter, visit https://bit.ly/3JTI4GQ There was one key stat from this week which helps explain the increasingly desperate state of the US labor market, offering background behind the "unexpectedly" weak payroll numbers from Friday. August's estimate was its lowest since...May 2009. Given the connection to employment, it all fits together with so many other signals including record low copper-to-gold. Yep, record low. Eurodollar Univer...
Sep 08, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1179
Payrolls were ugly, a big miss for August on top of revisions to June which pushed the monthly change negative. If that wasn't enough, a rising unemployment rate after a crash in full-time employment. Plus, a plunge in Canadian payrolls punctuate the turning point for North American jobs. Rates were down sharply, no surprise. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Eurodollar University's One Big Weekly Theme ...
Sep 06, 2025•32 min•Ep. 1178
It's not what everyone says, watch what they do. Big companies and big banks (JPM, too) are making heavy preparations for sharply lower interest rates. The former, in particular, have basically revived the long-dormant commercial paper market in a clear sign. At the same time, US and global banks are remaking their balance sheets in critical and unambiguous ways. Even some Fed officials are now seeing it, too. R is back to being an ultra-low STAR. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analys...
Sep 05, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1177
Dollar Tree says after seeing a major influx of especially middle-income Americans in its stores, it won't be able to raise prices. The latest jobs data leaves absolutely no doubt why that is. According to the turnover stats, the US labor market LOST jobs in June and July. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in ...
Sep 04, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1176
After trading conspicuously sideways for the past four months, gold has finally broken out of its range. However, at the same time the US dollar exchange value is threatening to do the same - by moving HIGHER. It's a bad combination: rising gold, higher dollar, and falling interest rates. If any doubts remain about what's really happening, the copper-to-gold ratio leaves everyone no doubt. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis --------------------------------------------------------...
Sep 03, 2025•19 min•Ep. 1175
Chinese stocks are heading into orbit, taking off like a rocket ever since the US and China reached an agreement to not inflict the worst of trade wars. Curiously, though, the Chinese economy has further deteriorated which means the equity surge is looking more and more like something we've seen before from Shanghai. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Eurodollar University's One Big Weekly Theme https://e...
Sep 02, 2025•19 min•Ep. 1174
Once Federal Reserve policymakers start making total sense, that's when you know. Officials are seeing the data the same way(s) we are, meaning a mess in jobs combined with an absence of any sign for tariff inflation. A big one came this week with a leading voice voicing caution and a growing possibility for that September fifty. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------...
Sep 01, 2025•19 min•Ep. 1173
There is no escaping the Pringles can. While the Bank of Canada has been on hold with its rate cutting since March, Canadian GDP, payrolls and even the latest Canadian CPI figures leave no doubt. Plus, the globally synchronized implications will be heard in central bank deliberations worldwide. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ I’m excited to share something I’ve negotiated for you guys: you can...
Aug 31, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1172
Two-year Treasury yields set a new almost-year low, falling below their prior April chaos lows. The yield curve is undergoing a profound reshaping that explains a lot more than Jay Powell's Jackson Hole performance. It also perfectly indicates what long-run interest rates are also doing as well as likely to do moving forward. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wha...
Aug 29, 2025•24 min•Ep. 1171
Consumer fears over jobs increased yet again in August, as did expectations for a recession. Relatedly, two separate sources confirmed housing prices in the US fell yet again in their latest monthly estimates. Related because the one is causing the other; fears over jobs that aren't strictly fears are reducing demand for homes and a whole lot more. Deep down, even Jay Powell knows it. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis -------------------------------------------------------------...
Aug 27, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1169
France's government is going to collapse again in a couple weeks. While everyone was distracted by trade wars, the underlying schism in politics remained unresolved. France is between a rock and a hard place, trying to fix its budget. Here's the thing: both the rock and the hard place are the same thing. Eurodollar University's Money and Macro Analysis I’m excited to share something I’ve negotiated for you guys: you can now get a Glint Card for FREE (normally $10) just by registering with my cod...
Aug 27, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1170
Home sales are down. Prices are falling. Inventories are rising. Record number of cancelations. And this is for July, not just a prime sales month in real estate, also three months after the events April. Stocks are soaring and trade deals have been struck. Where are all the buyers? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ I’m excited to share something I’ve negotiated for you guys: you can now get a G...
Aug 26, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1168
Something has changed in China. Something big. Bank lending dropped sharply, more than it has. Fixed investment suddenly crashed. Retail sales contracted in a way China hasn't experienced since 2022's lockdowns. The usual economic and financial decay has been taken up a notch, if not two. So, naturally, Chinese stocks are soaring, one final negative signal. Yes, negative. Eurodollar University Money & Macro Analysis ----------------------------------------------------------------------------...
Aug 25, 2025•22 min•Ep. 1167
There were several key points from Jay Powell's speech at Jackson Hole which everyone seems to have missed. The market picked up on them, however, with SOFR futures reacting by pushing its inversion deeper and further out, now early 2027. What Chair Powell meant under everything he said was he finally gets the big Beveridge risk. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ I’m excited to share somethi...
Aug 23, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1166
Jay Powell vs. Ronald McDonald? The FOMC yesterday published the minutes of its July meeting which showed a majority of officials believe inflation is the country's greatest threat. So, it was a huge shock when the world's biggest fast-food joint reported - ON THE SAME DAY - it was doing the opposite. Even the FOMC "majority" isn't as solid as it is made to appear, as the minutes also contained one observation that really does align with these real economy facts. Eurodollar University's Money &a...
Aug 22, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1165
I’m excited to share something I’ve negotiated for you guys: you can now get a Glint Card for FREE (normally $10) just by registering with my code ‘SNIDER’ or filling out the form on the page I’ve linked below. All the details and more about Glint are at https://partner.glintpay.com/eurodollar/. Target suffered another quarterly drop in sales. And the reason why was given by the CEO of Home Depot commenting on his own company's struggles. Laying down some truth, for once, these big retailers are...
Aug 21, 2025•31 min•Ep. 1164
With Monetary Metals, you don’t just hold gold, you earn a real yield on it, paid monthly in physical gold, without ever giving up ownership You can learn more here http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ Corporate credit is filled with what appear to be contradictions, with some spread categories tumbling to their lowest levels since the late nineties. Yet, delinquencies and risks are rising and doing so in a way everyone is recognizing. So, why the complacency? It's a combination of several cri...
Aug 20, 2025•36 min•Ep. 1163
I’m excited to share something I’ve negotiated for you guys: you can now get a Glint Card for FREE (normally $10) just by registering with my code ‘SNIDER’ or filling out the form on the page I’ve linked below. All the details and more about Glint are at https://partner.glintpay.com/eurodollar/ It's gotten so bad that serious Wall Street commentators are openly talking about yield curve control for Treasuries - just like they did four years ago. Yet, YCC never happened for the same reason it won...
Aug 19, 2025•37 min•Ep. 1162
I’m excited to share something I’ve negotiated for you guys: you can now get a Glint Card for FREE (normally $10) just by registering with my code ‘SNIDER’ or filling out the form on the page I’ve linked below. All the details and more about Glint are at https://partner.glintpay.com/eurodollar/. Don’t miss out! Last month was Amazon Prime "Day" - now four - and after it was over the whole thing just disappeared down a memory hole. Why? Ask the boxes. What box-makers are reporting is getting to b...
Aug 17, 2025•18 min•Ep. 1161
With Monetary Metals, you don’t just hold gold, you earn a real yield on it, paid monthly in physical gold, without ever giving up ownership You can learn more here http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ HSBC reported shocking results regarding its Hong Kong real estate loans further establishing the proportions of the credit crisis underway there. The news was, however, in line with recent developments in the city, among its banks, and with their Chinese counterparts. The reason was simple enou...
Aug 15, 2025•22 min•Ep. 1160
I’m excited to share something I’ve negotiated for you guys: you can now get a Glint Card for FREE (normally $10) just by registering with my code ‘SNIDER’ or filling out the form on the page I’ve linked below. All the details and more about Glint are at https://partner.glintpay.com/eurodollar/. Don’t miss out! Oil tumbled today nearing its multi-year low as a massive supply glut hangs over the marketplace. But it's not supply where the glut is coming from. Meanwhile, rates also tumble as everyo...
Aug 14, 2025•22 min•Ep. 1159
With Monetary Metals, you don’t just hold gold, you earn a real yield on it, paid monthly in physical gold, without ever giving up ownership You can learn more here http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Aug 13, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1158
I’m excited to share something I’ve negotiated for you guys: you can now get a Glint Card for FREE (normally $10) just by registering with my code ‘SNIDER’ or filling out the form on the page I’ve linked below. All the details and more about Glint are at https://partner.glintpay.com/eurodollar/. Don’t miss out! The macro situation is worse this summer compared to last summer, so where's Japan's carry trade? If the July 2024 jobs report provoked a violent financial backlash, you'd think the July ...
Aug 12, 2025•18 min•Ep. 1157
I’m excited to share something I’ve negotiated for you guys: you can now get a Glint Card for FREE (normally $10) just by registering with my code ‘SNIDER’ or filling out the form on the page I’ve linked below. All the details and more about Glint are at https://partner.glintpay.com/eurodollar/. Don’t miss out! Both McDonald's and Wendy's reported this past week that more Americans are skipping breakfast, not for some health fad but increasingly harsh economic circumstances. That view was furthe...
Aug 11, 2025•17 min•Ep. 1156
With Monetary Metals, you don’t just hold gold, you earn a real yield on it, paid monthly in physical gold, without ever giving up ownership You can learn more here http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ The July jobs report has sparked an overdue reexamination of a bunch of "truths" everyone has simply take for granted: inflation is the biggest risk, bonds are being rejected because of debt, etc. Goldman Sachs finally decided to check that actual yield curve and was utterly shocked to find zero...
Aug 10, 2025•19 min•Ep. 1155
I’m excited to share something I’ve negotiated for you guys: you can now get a Glint Card for FREE (normally $10) just by registering with my code ‘SNIDER’ or filling out the form on the page I’ve linked below. All the details and more about Glint are at https://partner.glintpay.com/eurodollar/. Don’t miss out! This had never happened before, an unprecedented vote for the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee. Despite it, the Pringles can remains undeterred since this is what rate cutting ...
Aug 08, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1154
I’m excited to share something I’ve negotiated for you guys: you can now get a Glint Card for FREE (normally $10) just by registering with my code ‘SNIDER’ or filling out the form on the page I’ve linked below. All the details and more about Glint are at https://partner.glintpay.com/eurodollar/. Don’t miss out! Everything continues to point directly toward much lower rates, including what is setting up to be a repeat of last summer. As Steve and I said a few days ago in the wake of the unambiguo...
Aug 07, 2025•22 min•Ep. 1153
The Federal Reserve reported a record increase in student loan delinquencies to go with high rates of souring household loans in credit cards and auto lending. The distress is another confirmation of macro deterioration starting with jobs and incomes. And that's just what the latest major economic release on US services showed today -- another alarming drop for employment. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ***** EDU's One Big Weekly Thing https://eurodollaruniversity.substack.co...
Aug 06, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1152
Huge moves at the front part of the interest rate curve. Bills did something we haven't seen since April. Meanwhile, forward rates reacted to Friday's payroll numbers with crisis-level hedging and then held those prices today. Why? Simple: payrolls were the last of it. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ***** With Monetary Metals, you don’t just hold gold, you earn a real yield on it, paid monthly in physical gold, without ever giving up ownership You can learn more here http://w...
Aug 05, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1151
With Monetary Metals, you don’t just hold gold, you earn a real yield on it, paid monthly in physical gold, without ever giving up ownership You can learn more here http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ After a crazy week with everything else going on, copper's historic plunge almost flew under everyone's radar. But now with copper prices getting beyond tariff distortions, settling back in to the fundamentals revealed a shocking development - one that absolutely fits with everything else for th...
Aug 04, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1150
