***** To sign up and get started with GlintPay, go to glintpay.com and make sure to use the code SNIDER. ***** The dollar is surging again. And while it's primary the euro taking the other side, just as importantly, if not more importantly, currencies like the rupee are tanking worse. INR hit another record low and that along with the euro's sharp reverse is a canary singing in the eurodollar coalmine...perhaps gasping. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.un...
Aug 02, 2025•16 min•Ep. 1149
With Monetary Metals, you don’t just hold gold, you earn a real yield on it, paid monthly in physical gold, without ever giving up ownership You can learn more here http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ ****** Eurodollar University's One Big Thing Weekly https://eurodollaruniversity.substack.com/ Eurodollar University's Anniversary Sale https://www.eurodollar.university/sale ****** Housing prices slid even farther in May, echoing previous data which has shown material weakness all across US rea...
Jul 30, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1148
The supply glut was never canceled. Almost everyone and every part of the oil market remains convinced it is happening, the potential weighing on prices and movements even if occasionally geopolitics gains control over short run periods. Important macro updates from Ireland to India further prove why the glut isn't being led by global supply. And if it wasn't enough sharp declines in US usage help clear it up even more. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ****** Eurodollar Univers...
Jul 29, 2025•19 min•Ep. 1147
The JGB curve isn't behaving the way it "should", nor is that behavior universal to the entire curve. Not only that, similar patterns are playing out in US$ forward markets like term SOFR futures. Each of these curves are pricing therefore predicting the same general set of future outcomes, and, wildly enough, enormous difficulties in figuring out how and when to get there because of the same reason. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre ******** If you are in any way interested...
Jul 28, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1146
Assuming the economy continues its downturn as all the major markets are pricing, what would that look like and what should we be looking for? That leads into the question of how deflationary money becomes a deflationary or depression economy in the first place. That means we need to examine economic mechanisms. Eurodollar University's Make It Make Sense ****** Eurodollar University's One Big Thing Weekly https://eurodollaruniversity.substack.com/ Eurodollar University's Anniversary Sale https:/...
Jul 27, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1145
June housing data is in...and it is looking worse for real estate in the US. The Florida market is leading the way. Everyone is blaming "historically high rates" for the growing bust. Not only is that demonstrably false, the real reason has broad implications for interest rates and a lot more. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ****** If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link be...
Jul 25, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1144
The ECB's latest Bank Lending Survey (BLS) adds more evidence to the behavior we've already been chronicling from among Europe's and the world's financial institutions. They are increasingly negative on especially consumers. We know what that means, too: jobs. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ****** https://eurodollaruniversity.substack.com/ Eurodollar University's Anniversary Sale https://www.eurodollar.university/sale ****** ECB Second Quarter 2025 Bank Lending Survey https:/...
Jul 24, 2025•22 min•Ep. 1143
There are reports HK bankers are already informally discussing how to structure a "bad bank." Earlier today, other reports said monetary authorities in Hong Kong were circulating the "crisis letter." The situation has taken a turn for the serious, a warning to the rest of the world because what HK is trying desperately to come to grips with is the same major problem as everyone else has, where the bubbles and now busts came from in the first place. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analy...
Jul 23, 2025•22 min•Ep. 1142
Payback is finally here? The implications of the latest report on trade suggest we're finally moving far enough away from all the recent distortions to gain a better sense of whether this really is the "main event." One of those warns trade volumes might crash from here. Plus, another critical forward-leaning measure just flashed a recession signal. All of which consistent with market positions. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ****** If you are in any way interested in preciou...
Jul 22, 2025•22 min•Ep. 1141
Moody's latest report on credit market dynamics showed a significant increase in the number of distressed borrowers, primarily those relating to private equity. In addition, bank stats show that while everyone else has forgotten about commercial real estate and its underlying bust, domestic banks have not and have been quietly yet persistently reducing their exposures to it. Participants in both sectors are following the same rule of thumb: avoid defaults at all costs. Eurodollar University's co...
Jul 21, 2025•19 min•Ep. 1140
Two major markets, two VERY different conclusions and outlooks. The diverging views and prices revolve around what really happened in April. Was it a one-off overreaction to tariffs? Or was the deflation confirmation of more than just potential volatility? Both markets are doubling and tripling down on their separate views, each reaching record or near-record levels for them. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ****** If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need t...
Jul 20, 2025•19 min•Ep. 1139
Only a week after the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to pause its rate cutting series, the Australian government reported a rash of exceptionally weak labor data, including the highest unemployment rate for the country in four years. RBA wasn't alone; the Bank of England is finding out the same in the same hard way. Central bank rate cut pauses aren't unusual, and they almost always end just like this. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ****** If you are in any way interested ...
Jul 18, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1138
Three months ago, hotel operators were confident that the consumer downturn they were experiencing would end being a relatively quick pain. After the tariff matter was finally settled, Americans would sure go back to spending as they always seemed to. Instead, a whole bunch of critical and alarming data out just today has poured oceans of deflationary cold water on the recovery hope. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Reuters Hilton cuts 2025 revenue growth forecast as US travel ...
Jul 17, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1137
Five months and little to show for it. Tariffs have been applied for that long, yet consumer prices remain suspiciously tame. The real story isn't the possible pass-through of trade duties, its why that isn't happening on a far broader basis. We got more evidence for why from American bank balance sheets. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis BLS June 2025 CPI https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htm Bloomberg US Core CPI Rises Less Than Expected Again Despite Tariff Impact https://...
Jul 16, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1136
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan, had some very harsh words and a pointed warning. He said the world was at high risk from tariffs. And while the activities of "his" bank largely agree with the high degree of risk, it's the complete opposite from what Dimon said publicly. This is not the first time this has happened, either. When the risks are greatest, JPM's CEO says one thing while JPM itself does the opposite. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ***** If you are in any way interes...
Jul 15, 2025•23 min•Ep. 1135
Asia is suddenly awash in deflation. Japan is now experiencing it. And while not necessarily new for China, the acceleration downward to producer prices hints at deterioration in demand, overseas as well as locally. It's become a big enough change the government in Beijing crucially appears to shifting its own economic focus, a potentially profound worldwide signal. Oh, and Jamie Dimon. Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twi...
Jul 14, 2025•19 min•Ep. 1134
The country's top bank regulators have proposed a major change to the banking rules. Some say this is like a stealth QE, everyone else appears equally confused. We'll get into what the new changes mean. More important, where these various ratios came from and why bank they are so hyped when they really shouldn't be. Eurodollar University's Make It Make Cents ***** If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them ...
Jul 13, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1133
A July rate cut is far from off the table. In addition to the macroeconomic evidence, the FOMC minutes from last month’s meeting make clear there really isn’t some divide among policymakers. In fact, the text leaves the distinct impression officials really don’t want to a repeat of last year. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Jul 11, 2025•31 min•Ep. 1132
Amazon Prime Days have been doubled to four, simply confirming just how this year really is different for the consumer economy. It is merely the latest to testify for highly unusual weakness. Along with a sharp drop in credit card usage, the historically unusual decline in weekly worker earnings show exactly why there are four Prime Days this year. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ******* To sign up for our webinar on July 10, follow the link below: https://event.webinarjam.com...
Jul 10, 2025•18 min•Ep. 1131
This wasn't supposed to happen. In fact, many said it was impossible up to and including central bank officials at the Federal Reserve. Yet, one of them, the head of the all-important New York branch, just released a report which say the market is taking ZIRP possibilities very seriously - and so should those at the highest levels of the Fed. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ***** If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, M...
Jul 09, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1130
The world is supposed to be all over the "sell America" trade, so why is it only this one key currency is? The thing is now sticking out like a sore thumb as more and more pile onto "sell America" here without any corroboration at all. Even FX modelers are confused by this insistence. What happens when everyone is on one side of a transaction under false assumptions? It converges. Sometimes violently. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ******* To sign up for our webinar on July 1...
Jul 08, 2025•18 min•Ep. 1129
Is this the payback? The rate cuts aren't working and that can only mean more of them. The best current examples are to north and south of the US where rolling over has taken on a new sense of urgency, especially since both are, at the margins, a proxy for American demand. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre ******* To sign up for our webinar on July 10, follow the link below: https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/swaps ****** https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://...
Jul 07, 2025•19 min•Ep. 1128
It was supposed to be one single out-of-control Wall Street bank. When authorities were forced to look into the matter, what they uncovered was a shocking. Not one but EVERYONE. Yet, after uncovering what was going on, the full astonishing scale, they never figured out WHY. And that was the whole thing, what the scandal said about a world that had already drastically changed. Eurodollar University's Make It Make Cents ******* To sign up for our webinar on July 10, follow the link below: https://...
Jul 06, 2025•18 min•Ep. 1127
To sign up for our webinar on July 10, follow the link below: https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/swaps Like last month, this June payroll report was taken one way in the mainstream while the details went entirely in the other direction. Headline was a beat and the unemployment rate stalled. Yet, the former was ironically a product of government jobs while the latter slid a tiny amount for ALL THE WRONG REASONS.
Jul 04, 2025•26 min•Ep. 1126
There is something going on in the money system with collateral. We've been covering bills and the latest data sheds more light on what is likely happening. It is something we've seen many times before. That's not a good sign. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ******* To sign up for our webinar on July 10, follow the link below: https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/swaps ****** https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU...
Jul 02, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1125
Fedex is a global bellwether for good reason. What the company said about the economic environment at the start of Q3 was...nothing. But in choosing not to forecast anything, the company said a lot especially given the evidence that has come piling up. We haven't seen consumer spending and incomes like this in America since 2020. That's not a typo. Flat Beveridge. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ******* To sign up for our webinar on July 10, follow the link below: https://even...
Jul 01, 2025•22 min•Ep. 1124
Big moves in yields, especially at the front. While twos are making a move on their own, it's the very front at the first-in-line bills that draws our attention. Steepening has been given a boost by some ugly recent data from right where it counts - incomes and spending. Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre ***** If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.mon...
Jun 30, 2025•19 min•Ep. 1123
AI shouldn't provoke fear and anxiety, it should raise expectations for regular 4-day workweek with 3-day weekends. Artificial Intelligence represents a potential major leap in labor productivity. The end result isn't a desolate hellscape which leaves everyone unemployed, it's instead something economics (small "e") is very familiar with. webinar link https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/swaps Eurodollar University's Make it Make Cents ******* To sign up for our webinar on July 10, follow the li...
Jun 29, 2025•17 min•Ep. 1122
To sign up for our webinar on July 10, follow the link below: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/29/4yzg6cx2 It never was entirely tariff distortions. Everyone had tried to dismiss Q1 as an anomaly. Later revisions have instead shown there is indeed a shift happening among US consumers. Even Winnebago agrees and RVs are the canary for the canary in the macro coalmine. Beveridge is getting closer. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg US GDP Revised Lower as Consumers Sl...
Jun 27, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1121
The housing market keeps spitting out alarming signs of a growing bust. Sales are down huge, prices are actually falling - and that's the government's estimates. Most of all, this is directly connected to the economy and especially jobs. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ****** If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ ****** Bloomb...
Jun 26, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1120
