Swiss francs are soaring again. This isn't a "sell America" trade (which doesn't exist), or the crashing dollar (also doesn't exist). The monetary system remains on edge and now we know why. The shocking full story of what really happened in April and how close we were to the shadow's edge. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Jun 25, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1119
Florida has long been the housing canary in the national real estate coalmine. The situation in the Sunshine State is anything but sunny with prices even outright declining in six key areas. That's just where the downturn is most pronounced right now. The excuses for an increasingly ugly housing market have worn out as the real story is finally being revealed. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's vide...
Jun 24, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1118
The Fed is going cut...in July. Period. Book it. Conditions have drastically changed and the officials shift is now underway. Rates are going down everywhere, including in DC. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre CNBC Fed Governor Waller says central bank could cut rates as early as July https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/20/fed-governor-waller-says-central-bank-could-cut-rates-as-early-as-july.html https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU...
Jun 23, 2025•19 min•Ep. 1117
A lot of people, maybe even a majority, find the idea of a two-decade long depression too far-fetched to take seriously. Something like that could never, ever happen. Could it? The problem is most everyone's idea of what a depression is needs to be corrected - another huge piece left missing by Economics. What is a depression? Way too familiar. Eurodollar University's Make It Make Cents NBER Cycle Dates https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions NYT Sept 19,...
Jun 22, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1116
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ It's back. No one wanted it, but it's here. Switzerland is first to revisit this dreaded milestone. Others aren't far behind, including now Sweden. The Swedes are facing exactly the sort of rough circumstances that made the Swiss National Bank take this drastic step. And if you think the Fed's dots have sepa...
Jun 20, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1115
The FOMC met today and while predictably there was no rate action, neither the dots nor the downgraded economy were the key takeaways. Chair Powell’s press conference became the perfect example of what the Fed has become. What would you say you do here? Meanwhile, the markets, the economy and T-bills. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Jun 19, 2025•31 min•Ep. 1114
Struggling airlines grappling with staycations offer insight into consumer behavior. Meanwhile, the government also showed spending on goods (and certain key services) tanked again in May. Even the world's biggest entertainers and their concert tours are suddenly having a hard time. The dreaded pullback keeps getting louder and more confirmed. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis IATA June 2025 https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2025-releases/2025-06-02-01/ Bloomberg Trump Risks US ...
Jun 18, 2025•17 min•Ep. 1113
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ Nine months later, China's bazooka has totally flopped. We have all the proof necessary. But the "stimulus" failure is not even the biggest takeaway. The full story behind it starts with banks, detours into massive volatility in Hong Kong, before ending up with zombies. Seriously. Eurodollar University's Mon...
Jun 17, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1112
Oil explodes at the worst time imaginable. There is no good time, of course, here in June 2025 the economy is dealing with tariffs, tariff-distortions, not to mention a noticeable amount of fragility already. Is rising oil going to spark the inflation reignition the Fed has been fearing? Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Jun 16, 2025•18 min•Ep. 1111
When did the dollar stop being a dollar? Most people might answer August 15, 1971, but a more accurate answer would be around a hundred years before then. There isn't exact date, just the most consequential evolution no one has ever heard of. The good news is that evolution doesn't stop. Eurodollar University's Make It Make Cents https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Jun 15, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1110
Why are LT rates rising? Most people say it is the long overdue reckoning. After resisting inflation, the Fed, most of all insane debt levels for years, the chickens have finally come home to roost for longer-dated Treasury notes and bonds. And that would mean the market was wrong about all those factors up until now. What IS happening on the curve? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU...
Jun 13, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1109
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ Negative downgrades to the world. Negative rates among major bonds already. Negative prices for consumers - here in the United States. The deflationary signals keep picking up. More to the point, all of this adds up to what markets like swaps have been saying for years. And that's the bad news. Eurodollar Un...
Jun 12, 2025•22 min•Ep. 1108
Central bankers are being forced to reckon with their inflation biases which are not standing up to reality. Deflationary consequences are breaking out worldwide, either in the form of increasingly layoff-riddled labor markets or outright price deflation; sometimes both. The global race to the bottom for interest rates is spreading as acknowledgement of economic facts rather than Economics fantasy. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: http...
Jun 11, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1107
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ RBI went full-blown shock and awe. Yet another major global central bank previously fixated on "inflation" abruptly and aggressively joining the race to the bottom. For India, it wasn't heavy rate cuts this time. Indian Officials said they want to shore up confidence; OK, so how bad is confidence if they fel...
Jun 10, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1106
ST rates have dropped sharply in the past few weeks, the past few days, in particular. The 4w Treasury bill now yields less than IOR, repo, even the Fed's RRP "floor." That's not all: the 3m10s spread has reinverted again. At the same time another major central bank just hit the panic button, going with a 50-bps cut only a few months after getting started. Where is this all heading? Not in Jay's direction. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university T...
Jun 09, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1105
The payroll estimates for May were a total mess. The headline was weak, revisions make it totally unreliable anyway, and it only gets worse from there. A lot worse. The labor market is breaking down and it's getting uncomfortable and dangerous.
Jun 08, 2025•27 min•Ep. 1104
Eight times now. The ECB is trying to say it might be one now, yet no one is listening least of all the economy. What everyone really wants to know is, when is the Fed going to follow along? In addition to all these other central banks acting, the latest reports from the Fed itself show that rejoining the global rate race might be a lot closer than everyone thinks. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ECB Press Conference Statement https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/m...
Jun 06, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1103
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ For a week when the labor market and its data are in the bright, blaring spotlight, it did NOT get off to a good start. Not only ADP, also ISM. Both together showed the economy continued losing momentum and vitality in May - even with tariff delays and a stock market rebound. Both ended p with some of the wo...
Jun 05, 2025•22 min•Ep. 1102
Why are swap spreads today as negative as they had been in the worst parts of April? Why is Swiss franc nearly as strong? Consumer prices undershooting and even turning negative offer a bigtime clue. As does the latest from Chinese and American factories. It’s not one big thing like April, it’s all the little things which keep coming up and piling on. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Swiss Inflation Turns Negative for First Time in Four Years https://www.bloomberg.com...
Jun 04, 2025•22 min•Ep. 1101
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ Several more countries around the world are reporting contractions in GDP even before getting to trade wars and any tariff impacts. The latest cluster around Scandinavia and have European banks overall behaving in very curious ways. So much so, the typically hands-off ECB is writing letters to them and threa...
Jun 03, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1100
Texas Just Sent a Warning Shot to the Rest of the U.S. Economy Consumer spending in Texas has collapsed, and the data from the Dallas Fed is worse than anyone expected. Retail sales activity fell off a cliff in May, hitting levels not seen since April 2020. Inventories are piling up, work hours are being slashed, and employers are cutting back. Is this just a Texas problem… or is it the first sign of a nationwide consumer retrenchment? In this video, we break down the shocking data, why it matte...
Jun 02, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1099
Everyone's favorite topic, yet there is little factually correct information floating around the internet or social media. You can't understand the dollar's position until you realize it's actually the eurodollar you're really talking about. And that means reserve currency, and hardly anyone knows what that truly means or involves. Until now. Eurodollar University's Make It Make Cents FOMC Minutes December 1963 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomchistmin19631217.pdf FOMC Tran...
Jun 01, 2025•22 min•Ep. 1098
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ South Korea had been on the side of the Fed, sticking with interest rates opting to see about trade war "uncertainty" before doing anything. That lasted all of four weeks. The list of central banks able to sit by and watch CPI has thinned down to just the one Mr. Powell runs. And the update to Q1 GDP in the ...
May 30, 2025•22 min•Ep. 1097
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ Germany. France. New Zealand. Singapore. ECB. Rising unemployment. Falling employment. Lowering interest rates. Technical recession. Historically low territory up next. There is almost no one left in the official world in the same thinking as the Fed as the world more clearly and completely tilts against "in...
May 29, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1096
The Reserve Bank of Australia had resisted cutting rates, being the last major central bank to do so. This week, RBA not only cut again officials confirmed discussing a fifty. Plus the Swedes, who were supposed to have been done, are back at it again. Race to the bottom heats up again. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre Bloomberg RBA Ready to Respond If Needed to Trade Shock, Hauser Says https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-22/rba-s-hauser-sees-us-china-trade-dispu...
May 29, 2025•18 min•Ep. 1095
The economy weakens and everyone looks to the Fed or any central bank to cut policy rates. But why? They call it stimulus but the real reason is nothing you've ever heard. In fact, Fed officials intentionally lied for decades to keep this quiet. You don't have to take my word for it; hear it from the maestro's mouth as we go down the rabbit hole of interest rates. Eurodollar University's Make it Make Cents FOMC March 1991 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19910326meeting.pd...
May 26, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1094
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ LT rates are up and you know what that means: get ready for a flood of claims deficits suddenly now matter. They don't (sadly), at least not for bonds, and we know they don't because not all the yield curve maturities are seeing selling. The one spot on the curve you always want to watch is sending another m...
May 23, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1093
We have more confirmation of a huge and unusual rise in bank lending to this offshore category. It parallels other similar corroboration which raises several thorny issues, leaving us with two broad interpretations for what this really means. With new data becoming available, it raises the stakes for a possible next time. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
May 22, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1092
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ While we wait to see if the Swiss National Bank opts for zero or negative policy rates next month, its chief Martin Schlegel had a lot to say yesterday about a range of topics, including negative prices, Treasury bonds, and global risks. Jamie Dimon then today chimed in today cautioning that stocks and risk ...
May 21, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1091
In a late Friday news dump, Moody's announced it had downgraded U.S. federal government debt. The news sparked a selloff in Treasuries, at least initially. What are the implications for bonds or the economy? It's not what the mainstream thinks it does. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg What the US Losing Its Last AAA Credit Rating Means https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-19/us-lost-moody-s-aaa-credit-rating-what-s-at-stake-for-markets S&P Global August...
May 20, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1090
