The country's top bank regulators have proposed a major change to the banking rules. Some say this is like a stealth QE, everyone else appears equally confused. We'll get into what the new changes mean. More important, where these various ratios came from and why bank they are so hyped when they really shouldn't be. Eurodollar University's Make It Make Cents ***** If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them ...
Jul 13, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1133
A July rate cut is far from off the table. In addition to the macroeconomic evidence, the FOMC minutes from last month’s meeting make clear there really isn’t some divide among policymakers. In fact, the text leaves the distinct impression officials really don’t want to a repeat of last year. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Jul 11, 2025•31 min•Ep. 1132
Amazon Prime Days have been doubled to four, simply confirming just how this year really is different for the consumer economy. It is merely the latest to testify for highly unusual weakness. Along with a sharp drop in credit card usage, the historically unusual decline in weekly worker earnings show exactly why there are four Prime Days this year. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ******* To sign up for our webinar on July 10, follow the link below: https://event.webinarjam.com...
Jul 10, 2025•18 min•Ep. 1131
This wasn't supposed to happen. In fact, many said it was impossible up to and including central bank officials at the Federal Reserve. Yet, one of them, the head of the all-important New York branch, just released a report which say the market is taking ZIRP possibilities very seriously - and so should those at the highest levels of the Fed. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ***** If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, M...
Jul 09, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1130
The world is supposed to be all over the "sell America" trade, so why is it only this one key currency is? The thing is now sticking out like a sore thumb as more and more pile onto "sell America" here without any corroboration at all. Even FX modelers are confused by this insistence. What happens when everyone is on one side of a transaction under false assumptions? It converges. Sometimes violently. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ******* To sign up for our webinar on July 1...
Jul 08, 2025•18 min•Ep. 1129
Is this the payback? The rate cuts aren't working and that can only mean more of them. The best current examples are to north and south of the US where rolling over has taken on a new sense of urgency, especially since both are, at the margins, a proxy for American demand. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre ******* To sign up for our webinar on July 10, follow the link below: https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/swaps ****** https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://...
Jul 07, 2025•19 min•Ep. 1128
It was supposed to be one single out-of-control Wall Street bank. When authorities were forced to look into the matter, what they uncovered was a shocking. Not one but EVERYONE. Yet, after uncovering what was going on, the full astonishing scale, they never figured out WHY. And that was the whole thing, what the scandal said about a world that had already drastically changed. Eurodollar University's Make It Make Cents ******* To sign up for our webinar on July 10, follow the link below: https://...
Jul 06, 2025•18 min•Ep. 1127
To sign up for our webinar on July 10, follow the link below: https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/swaps Like last month, this June payroll report was taken one way in the mainstream while the details went entirely in the other direction. Headline was a beat and the unemployment rate stalled. Yet, the former was ironically a product of government jobs while the latter slid a tiny amount for ALL THE WRONG REASONS.
Jul 04, 2025•26 min•Ep. 1126
There is something going on in the money system with collateral. We've been covering bills and the latest data sheds more light on what is likely happening. It is something we've seen many times before. That's not a good sign. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ******* To sign up for our webinar on July 10, follow the link below: https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/swaps ****** https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU...
Jul 02, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1125
Fedex is a global bellwether for good reason. What the company said about the economic environment at the start of Q3 was...nothing. But in choosing not to forecast anything, the company said a lot especially given the evidence that has come piling up. We haven't seen consumer spending and incomes like this in America since 2020. That's not a typo. Flat Beveridge. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ******* To sign up for our webinar on July 10, follow the link below: https://even...
Jul 01, 2025•22 min•Ep. 1124
Big moves in yields, especially at the front. While twos are making a move on their own, it's the very front at the first-in-line bills that draws our attention. Steepening has been given a boost by some ugly recent data from right where it counts - incomes and spending. Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre ***** If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.mon...
Jun 30, 2025•19 min•Ep. 1123
AI shouldn't provoke fear and anxiety, it should raise expectations for regular 4-day workweek with 3-day weekends. Artificial Intelligence represents a potential major leap in labor productivity. The end result isn't a desolate hellscape which leaves everyone unemployed, it's instead something economics (small "e") is very familiar with. webinar link https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/swaps Eurodollar University's Make it Make Cents ******* To sign up for our webinar on July 10, follow the li...
Jun 29, 2025•17 min•Ep. 1122
To sign up for our webinar on July 10, follow the link below: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/29/4yzg6cx2 It never was entirely tariff distortions. Everyone had tried to dismiss Q1 as an anomaly. Later revisions have instead shown there is indeed a shift happening among US consumers. Even Winnebago agrees and RVs are the canary for the canary in the macro coalmine. Beveridge is getting closer. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg US GDP Revised Lower as Consumers Sl...
Jun 27, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1121
The housing market keeps spitting out alarming signs of a growing bust. Sales are down huge, prices are actually falling - and that's the government's estimates. Most of all, this is directly connected to the economy and especially jobs. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ****** If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ ****** Bloomb...
Jun 26, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1120
Swiss francs are soaring again. This isn't a "sell America" trade (which doesn't exist), or the crashing dollar (also doesn't exist). The monetary system remains on edge and now we know why. The shocking full story of what really happened in April and how close we were to the shadow's edge. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Jun 25, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1119
Florida has long been the housing canary in the national real estate coalmine. The situation in the Sunshine State is anything but sunny with prices even outright declining in six key areas. That's just where the downturn is most pronounced right now. The excuses for an increasingly ugly housing market have worn out as the real story is finally being revealed. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's vide...
Jun 24, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1118
The Fed is going cut...in July. Period. Book it. Conditions have drastically changed and the officials shift is now underway. Rates are going down everywhere, including in DC. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre CNBC Fed Governor Waller says central bank could cut rates as early as July https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/20/fed-governor-waller-says-central-bank-could-cut-rates-as-early-as-july.html https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU...
Jun 23, 2025•19 min•Ep. 1117
A lot of people, maybe even a majority, find the idea of a two-decade long depression too far-fetched to take seriously. Something like that could never, ever happen. Could it? The problem is most everyone's idea of what a depression is needs to be corrected - another huge piece left missing by Economics. What is a depression? Way too familiar. Eurodollar University's Make It Make Cents NBER Cycle Dates https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions NYT Sept 19,...
Jun 22, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1116
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ It's back. No one wanted it, but it's here. Switzerland is first to revisit this dreaded milestone. Others aren't far behind, including now Sweden. The Swedes are facing exactly the sort of rough circumstances that made the Swiss National Bank take this drastic step. And if you think the Fed's dots have sepa...
Jun 20, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1115
The FOMC met today and while predictably there was no rate action, neither the dots nor the downgraded economy were the key takeaways. Chair Powell’s press conference became the perfect example of what the Fed has become. What would you say you do here? Meanwhile, the markets, the economy and T-bills. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Jun 19, 2025•31 min•Ep. 1114
Struggling airlines grappling with staycations offer insight into consumer behavior. Meanwhile, the government also showed spending on goods (and certain key services) tanked again in May. Even the world's biggest entertainers and their concert tours are suddenly having a hard time. The dreaded pullback keeps getting louder and more confirmed. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis IATA June 2025 https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2025-releases/2025-06-02-01/ Bloomberg Trump Risks US ...
Jun 18, 2025•17 min•Ep. 1113
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ Nine months later, China's bazooka has totally flopped. We have all the proof necessary. But the "stimulus" failure is not even the biggest takeaway. The full story behind it starts with banks, detours into massive volatility in Hong Kong, before ending up with zombies. Seriously. Eurodollar University's Mon...
Jun 17, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1112
Oil explodes at the worst time imaginable. There is no good time, of course, here in June 2025 the economy is dealing with tariffs, tariff-distortions, not to mention a noticeable amount of fragility already. Is rising oil going to spark the inflation reignition the Fed has been fearing? Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Jun 16, 2025•18 min•Ep. 1111
When did the dollar stop being a dollar? Most people might answer August 15, 1971, but a more accurate answer would be around a hundred years before then. There isn't exact date, just the most consequential evolution no one has ever heard of. The good news is that evolution doesn't stop. Eurodollar University's Make It Make Cents https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Jun 15, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1110
Why are LT rates rising? Most people say it is the long overdue reckoning. After resisting inflation, the Fed, most of all insane debt levels for years, the chickens have finally come home to roost for longer-dated Treasury notes and bonds. And that would mean the market was wrong about all those factors up until now. What IS happening on the curve? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU...
Jun 13, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1109
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ Negative downgrades to the world. Negative rates among major bonds already. Negative prices for consumers - here in the United States. The deflationary signals keep picking up. More to the point, all of this adds up to what markets like swaps have been saying for years. And that's the bad news. Eurodollar Un...
Jun 12, 2025•22 min•Ep. 1108
Central bankers are being forced to reckon with their inflation biases which are not standing up to reality. Deflationary consequences are breaking out worldwide, either in the form of increasingly layoff-riddled labor markets or outright price deflation; sometimes both. The global race to the bottom for interest rates is spreading as acknowledgement of economic facts rather than Economics fantasy. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: http...
Jun 11, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1107
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ RBI went full-blown shock and awe. Yet another major global central bank previously fixated on "inflation" abruptly and aggressively joining the race to the bottom. For India, it wasn't heavy rate cuts this time. Indian Officials said they want to shore up confidence; OK, so how bad is confidence if they fel...
Jun 10, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1106
ST rates have dropped sharply in the past few weeks, the past few days, in particular. The 4w Treasury bill now yields less than IOR, repo, even the Fed's RRP "floor." That's not all: the 3m10s spread has reinverted again. At the same time another major central bank just hit the panic button, going with a 50-bps cut only a few months after getting started. Where is this all heading? Not in Jay's direction. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university T...
Jun 09, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1105
The payroll estimates for May were a total mess. The headline was weak, revisions make it totally unreliable anyway, and it only gets worse from there. A lot worse. The labor market is breaking down and it's getting uncomfortable and dangerous.
Jun 08, 2025•27 min•Ep. 1104
