Eight times now. The ECB is trying to say it might be one now, yet no one is listening least of all the economy. What everyone really wants to know is, when is the Fed going to follow along? In addition to all these other central banks acting, the latest reports from the Fed itself show that rejoining the global rate race might be a lot closer than everyone thinks. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ECB Press Conference Statement https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/m...
Jun 06, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1103
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ For a week when the labor market and its data are in the bright, blaring spotlight, it did NOT get off to a good start. Not only ADP, also ISM. Both together showed the economy continued losing momentum and vitality in May - even with tariff delays and a stock market rebound. Both ended p with some of the wo...
Jun 05, 2025•22 min•Ep. 1102
Why are swap spreads today as negative as they had been in the worst parts of April? Why is Swiss franc nearly as strong? Consumer prices undershooting and even turning negative offer a bigtime clue. As does the latest from Chinese and American factories. It’s not one big thing like April, it’s all the little things which keep coming up and piling on. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Swiss Inflation Turns Negative for First Time in Four Years https://www.bloomberg.com...
Jun 04, 2025•22 min•Ep. 1101
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ Several more countries around the world are reporting contractions in GDP even before getting to trade wars and any tariff impacts. The latest cluster around Scandinavia and have European banks overall behaving in very curious ways. So much so, the typically hands-off ECB is writing letters to them and threa...
Jun 03, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1100
Texas Just Sent a Warning Shot to the Rest of the U.S. Economy Consumer spending in Texas has collapsed, and the data from the Dallas Fed is worse than anyone expected. Retail sales activity fell off a cliff in May, hitting levels not seen since April 2020. Inventories are piling up, work hours are being slashed, and employers are cutting back. Is this just a Texas problem… or is it the first sign of a nationwide consumer retrenchment? In this video, we break down the shocking data, why it matte...
Jun 02, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1099
Everyone's favorite topic, yet there is little factually correct information floating around the internet or social media. You can't understand the dollar's position until you realize it's actually the eurodollar you're really talking about. And that means reserve currency, and hardly anyone knows what that truly means or involves. Until now. Eurodollar University's Make It Make Cents FOMC Minutes December 1963 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomchistmin19631217.pdf FOMC Tran...
Jun 01, 2025•22 min•Ep. 1098
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ South Korea had been on the side of the Fed, sticking with interest rates opting to see about trade war "uncertainty" before doing anything. That lasted all of four weeks. The list of central banks able to sit by and watch CPI has thinned down to just the one Mr. Powell runs. And the update to Q1 GDP in the ...
May 30, 2025•22 min•Ep. 1097
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ Germany. France. New Zealand. Singapore. ECB. Rising unemployment. Falling employment. Lowering interest rates. Technical recession. Historically low territory up next. There is almost no one left in the official world in the same thinking as the Fed as the world more clearly and completely tilts against "in...
May 29, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1096
The Reserve Bank of Australia had resisted cutting rates, being the last major central bank to do so. This week, RBA not only cut again officials confirmed discussing a fifty. Plus the Swedes, who were supposed to have been done, are back at it again. Race to the bottom heats up again. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre Bloomberg RBA Ready to Respond If Needed to Trade Shock, Hauser Says https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-22/rba-s-hauser-sees-us-china-trade-dispu...
May 29, 2025•18 min•Ep. 1095
The economy weakens and everyone looks to the Fed or any central bank to cut policy rates. But why? They call it stimulus but the real reason is nothing you've ever heard. In fact, Fed officials intentionally lied for decades to keep this quiet. You don't have to take my word for it; hear it from the maestro's mouth as we go down the rabbit hole of interest rates. Eurodollar University's Make it Make Cents FOMC March 1991 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19910326meeting.pd...
May 26, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1094
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ LT rates are up and you know what that means: get ready for a flood of claims deficits suddenly now matter. They don't (sadly), at least not for bonds, and we know they don't because not all the yield curve maturities are seeing selling. The one spot on the curve you always want to watch is sending another m...
May 23, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1093
We have more confirmation of a huge and unusual rise in bank lending to this offshore category. It parallels other similar corroboration which raises several thorny issues, leaving us with two broad interpretations for what this really means. With new data becoming available, it raises the stakes for a possible next time. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
May 22, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1092
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ While we wait to see if the Swiss National Bank opts for zero or negative policy rates next month, its chief Martin Schlegel had a lot to say yesterday about a range of topics, including negative prices, Treasury bonds, and global risks. Jamie Dimon then today chimed in today cautioning that stocks and risk ...
May 21, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1091
In a late Friday news dump, Moody's announced it had downgraded U.S. federal government debt. The news sparked a selloff in Treasuries, at least initially. What are the implications for bonds or the economy? It's not what the mainstream thinks it does. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg What the US Losing Its Last AAA Credit Rating Means https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-19/us-lost-moody-s-aaa-credit-rating-what-s-at-stake-for-markets S&P Global August...
May 20, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1090
Japan did indeed fall back into recession in the first quarter before the tariff shock even had a chance to hit the economy, and positing a deeper negative GDP print than expected. Like everywhere else, the setback is being led largely by consumers. At the same time, American consumer confidence fell to another shocking low rather than rebound with trade deals and a rebounding stock market. Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https:/...
May 19, 2025•19 min•Ep. 1089
It’s still known as Black Tuesday almost a century later. In October 1929, the stock market crashes and plunges the world into the Great Depression. At least that’s what we’ve been told and what we all believe. But then why didn’t the Crash of 1987 lead to Great Depression 2? I mean, it didn’t even slow the economy down. Or the dot-com crash. Something is missing. As it turns out, there's a lot missing and so this is the first installment to fill in what Economics leaves out, or plain gets wrong...
May 18, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1088
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ It was a trifecta of disinflation disaster in today's numbers, with Walmart adding to the woes with its own deteriorating environment. Retail sales were more than soft, industrial output fell, but most concerning prices fell sharply - including wholesale services costs crashing the most on record. Eurodollar...
May 16, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1087
Chinese banks cut lending - by a lot - in April, completing the defensive story seen in banking systems all around the world. However, China's is unique in several key aspects, starting with what authorities have been doing trying to change this. The reason why it has come to this for Chinese banks really is not what everyone believes. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Why China Is Hoping $1.6 Trillion Can Fix Its Hidden Debt Problem https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...
May 15, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1086
Microsoft announced another round of layoffs. Coming from a company that isn't struggling nearly as much as most, it's an ominous sign. The April CPI shows why and not just for Microsoft. It instead aligns with the biggest problem in the economy, and that's not inflation which was absent from the report despite the start of tariffs. A surprise to Economists, but not to BED. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis CNBC Microsoft laying off about 6,000 people, or 3% of its workforce htt...
May 14, 2025•22 min•Ep. 1085
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ Re-risking accelerated on Wall Street and for many other markets; even bond yields rose. The thinking is if trade wars broke everything, then trade deals fix it. However, the US and China don't have one, And that's only the first of several key misimpressions - starting with the 2018 example. Like then, the ...
May 13, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1084
What's in a single number? For this one, a whole lot of confirmation plus warning. Consumer sentiment has famously crashed and this one figure holds the key to why. Everything else that's happening comes down to this single deficiency. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
May 12, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1083
Canadian payrolls were dismal in April, including the biggest two-month collapse in private jobs since the lockdowns. It isn't just sentiment. While pessimism has soared, results from around the real economy is backing that up with hard data. Not just Canada, also Mexico. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Jeremy Rudd Why Do We Think That Inflation Expectations Matter for Inflation? (And Should We?) https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2021062pap.pdf Transcript Chair...
May 11, 2025•17 min•Ep. 1082
Former hardcore hawk, the Bank of England pulled ahead of the Federal Reserve by rejoining the global race to the bottom. And it did so with what is being called a weird three-way split. The split was neither weird nor much of one. Instead what BoE did - and why - has already shown up here in the US. The latest confirmation comes from the Fed's very own data where job fears have exploded for the same reason(s) BoE is acting. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bank of England MPR ...
May 09, 2025•23 min•Ep. 1081
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ Insiders are looking for the exits. Short selling sharks are circling. Regulated banks are majorly exposed to this credit segment, another one deep within the shadows. Could this explain why market signals remain near or at extremes? From swap spreads to gold ratios, there is deflationary everywhere in them ...
May 08, 2025•23 min•Ep. 1080
US sovereign CDS prices are soaring, not relenting after jumping during April. While mainstream sources will say that's this dollar-ditching stuff, neither the track record for CDS nor empirical evidence agrees. Government credit default swap premiums are set by one factor, and it has everything to do with the banking system. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Sovereign and bank CDS spreads: two sides of the same coin? https://www.ucd.ie/geary/static/publications/workingpapers/ge...
May 07, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1079
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ Another major safe haven currency has exploded higher, not just in early April but here in early May. It's gone so far already the local monetary authority has had to intervene. Over in Switzerland, the country report zero inflation for April. Along with the similar behavior of the franc, the Swiss central b...
May 06, 2025•22 min•Ep. 1078
The April employment report...wasn't what everything thought it was. Not even close. What has changed is the narrative surrounding what are shaky numbers all the way around. The question everyone is asking isn't if the labor market is "good enough", it's now whether it is "bad enough." Here's what the data actually says about that. Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
May 05, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1077
Japan was, they said, on the cusp of generational shift. The real outlier in a growing tide of reversals, BoJ was still hiking still anticipating an inflationary recovery. It has all come crashing down, globally synchronized. But not before one final plot twist. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
May 04, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1076
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ The Treasury Secretary spoke through the financial media to Jay Powell. He had a very simple message for the Fed Chair: pay attention to the 2s. And Ronald McDonald. It's not just the Treasury market. If only that was the case, there is also a close relationship - therefore strong warning - coming via the oi...
May 02, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1075
A slew of economic reports from around the biggest global economies. Starting with US GDP, then Mexico, Germany and Europe then finally some critical macro data from China. There is indeed a common thread running through all of them, and it has markets spooked: CtG hit a new multi-year low barely above the 2020 lows. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis CNBC Private payroll growth slowed to 62,000 in April, well below expectations https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/adp-jobs-report-apr...
May 01, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1074
