From the outside, everything that could have gone wrong for bonds did. CPI. PPI. Auctions. Hawks. You name it. Despite all that, what bond yields did instead points to deeper fundamentals that are never talked about by mainstream sources - including the new Treasury Secretary. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Feb 17, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1013
Amazon warned the start of 2025 was rough, and boy was it. Government data on consumer spending as well goods production came in exactly that way. And while extreme winter weather played a role in each one, it was clearly the opposite of what everyone says. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis NYT Amazon Says Profits Rose 88% but Cautions Growth May Slow https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/06/technology/amazon-earnings-profits.html CNN US retail spending plunged last month, falling for...
Feb 16, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1012
India has suffered a major currency drop, serious interbank liquidity problems, one of the largest central bank FX interventions in its history, a stock rout, and, for good measure, the third of three straight negative CPIs. And that's just the last four days. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg India Central Bank Punishes Rupee Speculators in Surprise Move https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-11/india-central-bank-intervenes-to-curb-speculative-rupee-bets Ret...
Feb 14, 2025•18 min•Ep. 1011
Shocker of a CPI report; or was it? The bigger shock came afterward when Chevron stunned with its massive shake-up. At the same time - and for the same reasons - the oil market is undergoing a dramatic change of its own. And these are far from inflationary. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis BLS January CPI https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htm CNBC Chevron will slash up to 20% of its workforce as part of cost-cutting plan https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/12/chevron-will-slash-up-...
Feb 13, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1010
We're finding more and more evidence in 2025 that escaping the economy of the past few years won't be so easy and neat as many were hoping. The golden arches reported their worst sales estimates for American stores since the lockdowns. Those results fit with other retailers struggling mightily among other commercial segments, as data now suggests consumer fears over the labor market are compounding the downturn. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis CNBC McDonald’s revenue disappoin...
Feb 12, 2025•19 min•Ep. 1009
Auto exports out of Mexico plunged in January. While bad news for the struggling Mexican economy, this is more evidence for the growing global backlash of which the car business is right in the middle of. Cars aren't a victim but now a cause for concern the world over - including the primary reason for the struggle to begin with. America. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg German Industrial Production Falls Most in Five Months on Cars https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...
Feb 11, 2025•18 min•Ep. 1008
Mexico is now the latest to accelerate, upping its ante as the situation reaches a critical turning point. It's been coming for a long time, yet central bankers worldwide now have a convenient excuse to cover the deterioration. The same one American consumers are now fretting with confidence rolling over and going sharply lower. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Feb 10, 2025•18 min•Ep. 1007
Complete mess. Payrolls revised massively lower. The govt discovers three million people and assumes two million were employed this whole time. More important than those, hours are shrinking to the point the average workweek is the lowest its been since MARCH 2020. Strong and resilient, as always. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis BLS Employment Situation https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm BLS Adjustments to Household Survey Population Estimates in January 2025 http...
Feb 08, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1006
A major shift is underway now at the Bank of England. After being among the most cautious central banks it is being forced more to the dovish side. Even one of the most arch-hawks in all global central banking ditched her previous opposition to any rate cuts in order to urge a fifty-bps cut today! More reactions to the consequences from a world that forgot how to grow. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU...
Feb 07, 2025•18 min•Ep. 1005
Bond yields have fallen sharply over the past two weeks, having now roundtripped the past two FOMC meetings, going all the way back to where they'd been before the "hawkish rate cut" in December. Latest data on the services economy go a long way to explaining why, with signs of one-offs and non-economic artificial factors more and more coming out of it. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg US Bond ‘Death Spiral’ Risk Brushed Aside by Foreign Funds https://www.bloomberg.co...
Feb 06, 2025•19 min•Ep. 1004
No one is hiring yet no one is firing. The latter doesn't mean employers aren't getting rid of workers, because they are. Lots of them. A hiring freeze is only the first part of cost-cutting in a weak economy. From consumer surveys to govt jobs estimates, the labor market is on everyone's mind right now, employers and employees. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Nissan offers buyouts as US production scales back https://www.automotivedive.com/news/nissan-buyouts-workforce-produc...
Feb 05, 2025•19 min•Ep. 1003
Opening round of the 2025 trade wars. Mexico and Canada in the crosshairs. Neither of them stood a chance. The pounding started even before the negotiations began. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis NYT Here’s What to Know About Trump’s Tariffs https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/01/business/trump-tariffs-canada-mexico-china.html Truth Social, Trump Mexico Message https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113940711907400754 Bloomberg Car Prices Face $3,000 Increase as Automakers...
Feb 04, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1002
Gold has been soaring all of 2025 so far, reaching a new all-time high this past week as yet another major cyclical warning was triggered. Trade wars may account for some of the urgency, the real story is how in a world that's entirely artificial more in it desperately demand something real. It's getting easier to sort what's real from so much fakery. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre Bloomberg STMicro Eyes Workforce Cuts of Up to 3,000 in Chip Slump https://www.bloomberg.co...
Feb 03, 2025•18 min•Ep. 1001
Silicon Valley Bank's failure in March 2023 kicked off a chain of events that has cascaded across money, banks, and the real economy. The world economy didn't forget how to grow, the banking crisis of early '23 proved to be the final inflection point. Central banks may have won the battle over banks, then lost the war where it truly mattered. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Feb 02, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1000
Banks are in full-on defensive mode, GDP is in a huge and growing hole, and central bankers are realizing they're stuck no matter what. The end of last year for Europe stands as a stark warning that this global transition remains far from over with - even after two years of it already. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ECB statement https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/activities/mopo/html/index.en.html Bloomberg ECB Cuts Rates for Fifth Time as Euro-Zone Economy Flatlines https:/...
Jan 31, 2025•20 min•Ep. 999
Reviewing the Fed, the Canadians, Sweden, and previewing the ECB. Market reactions and what really happened at the FOMC. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Bets on Big Treasuries Rally Are Booming Before Fed Decision https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-28/bets-on-bigger-treasuries-rally-are-booming-before-fed-decision Bloomberg Traders Bet ECB Will Need to Deepen and Accelerate Rate Cuts https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-29/traders-bet-ecb-will...
Jan 30, 2025•33 min•Ep. 998
Shipping rates have plunged in January. The sinking demand for raw materials is another warning about the state of the economy in 2025. It was one echoed yet again by American consumers who, after a short reprieve on rate cuts and election, are right back to worrying about jobs and incomes all over again. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Investopedia https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/baltic_dry_index.asp Bloomberg US Consumer Confidence Drops to Four-Month Low on Job Market ...
Jan 29, 2025•18 min•Ep. 997
Chinese banks are the real story, even as China's government (intentionally?) stole the spotlight with its AI-knock-off, a distraction from the latest real economy warning and most importantly the banking sector's latest. The credit crisis in the latter may finally be coming to a head as it keeps the former from stabilizing. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis AA Xi Jinping https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/on-chinese-new-year-s-eve-xi-vows-to-confront-challenges-without-hesit...
Jan 28, 2025•21 min•Ep. 996
South Korea is the latest to fall into "forgot how to grow" and Texas Instruments showed the world why. Both were slammed this week for getting to the same place from different perspectives. Critical cyclical indications that shocked the consensus. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre Bloomberg Texas Instruments Suffers Worst Rout Since 2020 on Weak Forecast https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-23/texas-instruments-outlook-signals-chip-slump-is-persisting https://www...
Jan 27, 2025•18 min•Ep. 995
While the dollar was screaming higher the past few months, that eurodollar disorder had foreign govts absolutely raiding their reserves, money dealers hoarding record amounts of collateral and record Treasuries being piled up by depositories. And those were just the beginning. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Jan 26, 2025•22 min•Ep. 994
President Trump created quite a stir in his speech to Davos, demanding, among other things, lower oil prices from OPEC plus lower interest rates out of Jay Powell. In fact, those two are linked with the one expected to pave the way for the other. What's the real game here? More important, what are the chances this can work? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Trump Urges Lower Oil Prices, Interest Rate Cuts at Davos https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-23/trum...
Jan 24, 2025•20 min•Ep. 993
Tariffs on Mexico and Canada begin on February 1, or do they? Whether President Trump is merely posturing or not, the threat is real and the situation globally they would be starting from makes for a difficult mix. That's why the dollar is rising, rates are falling, and real economy variables are already experiencing significant pressure. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Trump Plans to Impose 25% Tariffs on Mexico, Canada by Feb. 1 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...
Jan 23, 2025•18 min•Ep. 992
UK payrolls took a massive hit in both November AND December. While the media looks for reasons to blame, the answer instead comes from all the rest of the world. Unemployment is on the rise all over the place, with the situations in some of them going way beyond softening or weakness. More than a few places you might not think of having a major employment downturn are, a warning to the world this is getting really serious. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Surprise UK...
Jan 23, 2025•20 min•Ep. 991
Many regulators worry there is the potential for systemic crisis begun by so-called shadow banks. The banks you already know are the last one. In the decade and a half since 2008 the eurodollar world has evolved yet again. The aftermath of that last one opened the door to go back into the shadows. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg US Lays Path for More Financial Giants to Get Fed Oversight https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-03/yellen-lays-path-for-more-fin...
Jan 21, 2025•21 min•Ep. 990
The verdict for the Christmas season is in and...not good. Consumers wanted to spend. They tried to spend. They couldn't spend, not what they wanted or retailers needed. Americans simply don't have enough funds and so the downturn marches on. Eurodollar University's conversation with Steve Van Metre Signet Jewelers Announces Holiday Sales Results https://www.signetjewelers.com/investors/financial-news-releases/financial-news-release/2025/Signet-Jewelers-Announces-Holiday-Sales-Results/default.as...
Jan 20, 2025•17 min•Ep. 989
Germany's economy is doing something we've never seen before. Not only did it contract for the second straight year, that's not even the most amazing part. The general pattern it is taking is one that is being repeated all around the world. It's as if the entire global economy stopped growing. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg German Economy Shrinks for Second Year in New Blow to Scholz https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-15/german-economy-shrinks-for-secon...
Jan 19, 2025•19 min•Ep. 988
China's money markets have started to come unglued, with serious illiquidity driving up money rates. Despite provoking one of the largest liquidity operations in twenty years from the PBOC yesterday, the disorder came back even worse today. All of this against the backdrop of a currency fight and the prospect China's bank credit problem becomes a full-blown liquidity crisis. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg China's Central Bank Pumps Near-Historic Level of Cash Into F...
Jan 17, 2025•19 min•Ep. 987
Treasuries exploded on the release of the "inflation" figures for December. Those were rather unremarkable, taken in isolation wouldn't have been able to explain why such a heavy market reaction. There is much more to the CPI and what's going on in the bond market. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Why Some Bond Traders Bet Relentless Selloff Will Soon Lose Steam https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-14/bond-traders-wager-slump-set-to-ease-with-key-cpi-data-a...
Jan 16, 2025•31 min•Ep. 986
Russian sanctions triggered more than a surge in oil prices. Financial markets near-panicked bought in near-term futures contracts. While the jump in energy is already being called an huge inflation risk, it isn't even close. On the contrary, oil spikes always end a certain way. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis CNN Biden admin imposes harsh sanctions on Russian oil industry to cut off funding for Ukraine war effort https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/10/politics/biden-admin-russia-ener...
Jan 15, 2025•21 min•Ep. 985
Not a good day in India to start the week. The rupee’s currency crisis is accelerating. The central bank is burning through reserves at an unsustainable pace. India stocks were crushed, with the main SENSEX index down over a thousand points. Delhi also significantly dialed back its growth estimates while reports came out it is going to massively restate its November imports. Why is all this happening? It's not because of Jay Powell or Donald Trump. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analy...
Jan 14, 2025•21 min•Ep. 984
