Another blowout payroll report, way above every expectation. That makes two in a row for the Est. Survey post-election. Plus, a big rebound for the HH Survey. Trump-bump, a sign of a resurgent economy finally shaking off the doldrums of the past year-plus? Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
China's yuan is hanging by a thread, the closest it has ever been to going over the government limit. Finally, even the mainstream media has caught on this has nothing to do with Jay Powell and the Fed. The bazooka has been utterly exposed. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg PBOC Halts Bond Buying to Defend Yuan as Economic Gloom Worsens https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-10/pboc-says-it-will-temporarily-halt-buying-of-government-bonds Bloomberg China’s Mar...
Credit card balances crashed in November, according to the latest data from the Federal Reserve. That's a major warning but not about spending. With such a negative signal instead relating to jobs and the labor market, why the hell are LT rates...rising? The answer to the question can be found in Canada and Germany. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
And now for some layoffs to go with the ongoing alarming drop in hiring. More strong evidence the labor market in the US is on the edge of the Beveridge cliff. It may not actually be a cliff in the literal sense, yet all the data points to the economy being at that point...if not already past it. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
European banks are not acting like either inflation is breaking back out or that the economy is going to be fine and hit its widely-expected soft landing. Instead, what they are doing is the other side of the weak euro. Both are further corroborated by the latest from France and especially Switzerland, with another warning coming from the Swiss on more than "inflation." Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Traders See Euro Hitting Dollar Parity as Soon as This Month https...
Canada's Prime Minister resigned, as expected, just as Canada announces more troubling economic data. The whole saga of PM Trudeau's downfall is actually perfectly illustrated by the loonie; and it applies to a lot more than Canada. It's a warning to both existing governments as well as the successors who take over for them after voters have had enough. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Fox Canada’s Trudeau announces resignation following party pressure amid criticisms of Trump,...
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Something big happened in late November, impacting markets all around the world. Responsible for the crash in currencies, the collapse in some interest rates, maybe even some modest upset over in the stock market. We have a number of clues to go off, a few suspects to analyze. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis CNBC Trump vows an additional 10% tariff on China, 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/26/trump-vows-an-additional-10percent-tariff-on-china-25pe...
There are huge numbers being thrown around the stock market. Normally you can just ignore them since share prices go up almost no matter what. But these imbalances are now too big to simply dismiss and key sectors in the equity market aren't buying them. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis WSJ Stocks on Pace for Best Two Years in a Quarter-Century https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/stocks-on-pace-for-best-two-years-in-a-quarter-century-c5b5f9b3 NYT Wall St. Sees More Gains Ahead A...
A plunge in Chicago kicks off more concerns over the global car business. Layoffs and plant closures keep coming as automakers are having enormous difficulties first aligning their businesses with the lack of recovery. On top of that, more indications beside Chicago pour in showing falling cyclical demand for cars, too. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Reuters Europe's embattled auto sector plans plant closures and layoffs https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/e...
The biggest surprise of 2024 wasn't any election results nor was it the fact central banks worldwide are more desperately accelerating rate cuts as the year draws to close. Or that other governments and officials are resorting to increasing panicky measures to calm markets in their areas. What caught everyone so off guard about '24 was the one outcome that stands behind all of those things. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis IMF WEO January 2024 https://www.imf.org/en/Publication...
After facing a major setback, the Reserve Bank of India has ditched its longshot desperation tactic aimed at 'speculators' betting against the rupee. They aren't the problem, the fundamentals are - global fundamentals. There is a lot INR has to say about those as it becomes the latest to plunge. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Business Standard RBI dials down use of NDFs to fight dollar, balance rupee stability https://www.business-standard.com/finance/news/rbi-dials-down-use-...
More indications of substantial problems for American workers - they can't find any jobs. But why? Moreover, what will it take to get this major hiring freeze to thaw? It isn't rate cuts or lower rates. Nor does it appear the election has worked, either. Consumers plunged back into fears over jobs and incomes in December. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis NBC News From 'Great Resignation' to 'Great Detachment': How the U.S. job market has slowed https://www.nbcnews.com/business/...
Major shift in the Treasury curve with a critical spread uninverting for the first time in years. Bonds and central banks are on the move, which leaves some of Treasury market going the wrong way. And the only reason is Jay Powell. From swaps to other bonds, even something called term premia, the Fed is in the dark while bonds are lighting up. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis FRBNY Term Premia calculations https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/data_indicators/term-premia-tabs#/in...
LT Chinese bond rates have been falling fast for a while. Over the last two weeks, ST yields have completely collapsed; most of it last week, too. Why? Maybe more important, why now? The mainstream answer to either one is total nonsense and easily debunked from the September bazooka. What does that leave? Possibly an old familiar name. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Chinese Regulator Asks Insurers to Report Vanke Debt Holdings https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles...
According to the latest conventional 'wisdom' - which changes with each and every CPI report and FOMC dot adjustment - inflation is back and so is the soft landing. The most recent update from the labor market says that's entirely backward. Job findings have utterly plunged right when the jobs market reaches that 'magical' unemployment inflection spot on this critical curve. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/Jeff...
There's more to the Brazil story, especially since Brazil's story isn't strictly about Brazil. With markets there spiraling into chaos, the government is down to blaming 'speculators.' If that's the case, then speculation has gone global in a lot of critical ways. From currencies to job findings plunging, even something real like the Baltic Dry which is crashing now, too. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Brazil Central Bank Rejects Doubts Over Power of Monetary Policy...
While everyone is hanging on the Fed and the FOMC's indecision about how many rate cuts next year, there are currency crises - plural - beginning to break out in key places. One of those is Brazil where it has gotten so dangerous the country's central bank is now regularly intervening in FX spot markets. What's really going on here? The black hole is angry. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU...
Stocks tanked, bond yields soared, the dollar jumped. All because the Fed doesn't know what it's going to do now? Partly, yeah. There's a lot more to the story, however. Given the tortuous road to rate cuts, it wasn't suddenly going to become smooth sailing now that they've started. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Canada. France. Germany. What do they have in common? Central banks in each are cutting rates. Also, their governments have either collapsed or, Canada, about to. Why? Same reason there are rate cuts. It's not ideology nor really partisanship. It's the economy, stupid. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis CNBC Canada finance minister quits after clash with Trudeau, deals blow to government https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/16/canada-finance-minister-quits-after-clash-with-trudeau-deals-...
Interest rates worldwide are hanging at the edge of a cliff. It may not seem like it from the current focus on the Fed and the possible pause in its rate cutting. This doesn't mean other central bank rate cuts, either. Instead, two very critical signals have absolutely plunged just in the past few days. Record lows in both are far more relevant than Jay Powell. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU...
The dollar continues to threaten to make a big move higher. Not only is the main dollar index right at the top end of its multi-year range, the buck is creating big problems for major currencies. The more other central banks or authorities struggle to contain the fallout, the greater the chance for that breakout. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Update on T-bills. Last week's wild auctions repeated this week, only with flipped maturities. Other related data confirm the sharp demand as well as dealer participation in it. We discuss the implications plus dig into the reason why collateral is so important to begin with, and also why we don't know nearly enough about what's going on. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis WEBINAR REPLAY, w/SPECIAL GUEST JIM RICKARDS https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/26/7y53nc7mb44azzaw FRBN...
Swiss shock - again. Now fearing outright deflation and over the next six months, SNB pulls the trigger on a fifty. Back in March, amidst the "sticky" "inflation" freakout, when the SNB was the first central bank to begin cutting rates it was a warning to other central bankers and the rest of the world what was coming wasn't more "inflation." OPEC concurs. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis WEBINAR REPLAY, w/SPECIAL GUEST JIM RICKARDS https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/26/7y5...
Here comes Chinese central bank bond buying, but this is no QE. A report surfaced in China Daily strongly implying the Chinese government is beyond just exploring something called money-financed fiscal expansion. We'll go over what that is, how it is different from QE, and what the real takeaway is. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis China Daily Unconventional monetary steps eyed https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202412/11/WS6758cfcca310f1265a1d2293.html https://www.eurodollar.univ...
Canada's official unemployment rate jumped in November, reaching its highest level since 2016 (outside 2020). And that was only the beginning. Given how highly synchronized US Treasury rates are with Canadian government bonds, not to mention the Fed and the Bank of Canada, we expect a lot of similarities in the real economy. This one is getting to be uncomfortably close. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Webinar w/Jim Rickards, Wednesday Dec 11 at 6:30pm ET. Sign up here: https:...
China's top government body, the politburo, attempted to reignite the "stimulus" sentiment with another wordy communication chock full of more promises and platitudes. To begin with, this doesn't bode very well for the "bazooka." Global market reaction wasn't what Beijing was looking for, either. Even stocks and Economists. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Webinar w/Jim Rickards, Wednesday Dec 11 at 6:30pm ET. Sign up here: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671piml SCMP...
The BLS labor data had a chance to show that October's weakness really was just a combination of one-off factors, instead did everything to confirm that it wasn't those at all. That includes the headline payroll number, too. Unemployment is up and, when you properly account for everyone, up A LOT. Just like Canada. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre sign up for the webinar here https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671piml https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https:...
Wild week for a market that's supposed to be boring and go unnoticed. For the second straight month, heavy buying in bills right ahead of the payroll report. Except, in this case, buyers went utterly crazy for the 8-week bill in one of the most incredible bill auctions. But what is all this mess about? Yen, securities lending, and recession. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis WEBINAR DEC 11 w/Jim Rickards Sign up: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671piml https://www.euro...
