Another part of the yield curve un-inverted, this time the short to long segment. Demonstrating the perpetual inability to make sense of it, mainstream sources are suggesting some "Trump trade" is behind this. No. Unequivocally no. The classic bull case is building and this is merely the latest nascent signal. It isn't complete yet, but incoming data including today's negative retail sales continues to suggest the same case. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis EURODOLLAR UNIVERSIT...
Jul 17, 2024•18 min•Ep. 831
It started Friday when China's central bank reported more than just new record low credit stats, the deterioration over the past few months has been astounding. That obviously spread to the Chinese economy which the government confirmed today with ugly data across-the-board, big miss in GDP and grim numbers on retail sales. Yet, everyone wants more "stimulus" that all this data proves didn't stimulate a thing. Something to keep in mind when thinking about upcoming Fed rate cuts. Eurodollar Unive...
Jul 16, 2024•20 min•Ep. 830
Why does the Japanese government keep intervening trying to prop up the yen, and why does it keep failing? This isn't just about the yen or Japan, nor is it completely a matter of what's unfolding right now. There is a deeper truth that needs to be made more widely which applies universally to monetary systems around the world. And the yen's crash is the clearest example. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre CHECK OUT OUR ANNIVERSARY SALE PRICES AT: https://www.eurodollar.unive...
Jul 15, 2024•19 min•Ep. 829
There was an unnoticed yet absolutely critical detail in the June CPI report that pointed to a lot more than just benign disinflation, a development that has only rarely been observed in decades of history. More disturbing still, the context behind this one is consistent with those few past instances including a few new pieces of subsequent information. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis FOMC Transcript April 2010 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20100428me...
Jul 14, 2024•18 min•Ep. 828
The June consumer price estimates at first seemed like good news. Two months in a row at low and now negative changes. But these past two months have shown a little more weakness than most had bargained for, instead so many of the details consistent with recession indications spilling out from all over the economy. No wonder bond yields dropped sharply, though, alarmingly, swap spreads got there well before today. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis BLS June 2024 CPI https://www.b...
Jul 12, 2024•18 min•Ep. 827
Chinese authorities are becoming increasingly desperate over their inability to stabilize any of the economy, banking system, or markets. CNY keeps going down, as does the economy. Banks in China aren't lending while dozens are now 'disappearing.' Safety/liquidity of government bonds makes perfect sense. Not to the PBOC which is going to be shorting it by hundreds of billions and this is why. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY ANNIVERSARY SALE PAGE https://w...
Jul 11, 2024•20 min•Ep. 826
From 'strong and resilient' to 'uh oh' in a heartbeat. The unemployment rate has intruded itself on the soft landing narrative, forcing a near-total rethink of the situation all across the mainstream. Some major bank strategists are now calling for aggressive rate cuts from the Fed at the same time the yield curve is beginning to flash bull. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY ANNIVERSARY SALE PAGE https://www.eurodollar.university/anniversary-sale Fed Chair ...
Jul 10, 2024•17 min•Ep. 825
Political turmoil in Europe is very easy to understand. The European economy is supposed to be recovering from its unofficial recession, and yet the most recent data shows instead alarming (re)acceleration to the downside in a number of places. Realizing this means the path to clawing back some of the supply shock's price increases is disappearing, voters are simply voting accordingly. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Pew Research Center Economic ratings across 34 countries are...
Jul 09, 2024•18 min•Ep. 824
Unemployment in the US is now steadily moving higher. The June 2024 employment report contained more substantial downward revisions, evidence more employers are cutting hours, and most concerning is another increase to the unemployment rate. And, contrary to many claims, it's not the "good" kind of rising unemployment. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre BLS Employment Situation Summary June 2024 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm Bloomberg The US Economic Slowdow...
Jul 08, 2024•19 min•Ep. 823
According to multiple recent reports, banks are very quietly selling out of CRE positions. Those reports are backed up by banking data which clearly shows an inflection in systemic loans in the space. Combined, we have strong evidence showing the second stage of the CRE bust has now started. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Reuters Big US banks withstand Fed's commercial real estate shock scenario https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/big-us-banks-withstand-feds-commercial-real-es...
Jul 07, 2024•18 min•Ep. 822
Modern economies have been moving in the direction of ledger money not for years or decades, for centuries. The world's current reserve currency, the eurodollar, merely represented the second stage in the evolutionary process. Now that it has surpassed its useful life, the door is wide open for the third stage which seems tailor-made for something like Bitcoin. Why hasn't the digital ledger taken advantage of the opportunity? Is there some other kind which is? Eurodollar University's Special Pre...
Jul 06, 2024•58 min•Ep. 821
Fed officials have repeatedly stated they are going to be patient before pivoting to rate cuts. But that would only be the case if the economy is actually strong and resilient. Should the labor market show signs of falling off dramatically, they'd cut their rates in a hurry. Today's macro data were filled with exactly those kinds of warning signs. EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S ANNIVERSARY SALE - DETAILS AT https://eurodollar.university Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Powel...
Jul 04, 2024•19 min•Ep. 820
If you want to watch the full interview check it out at https://www.eurodollar.university Everyone wants to know the answer to the recession question. So, by very popular demand, Eric Basmajian of EPB Macro Research checks in with Jeff on the unusual state and status of the US business cycle. The whole monumental matter just might come down to houses. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU...
Jul 03, 2024•23 min•Ep. 819
Government bond yields in China just plunged to more record lows as market agents are growing even more pessimistic. The unquenchable demand for safe and liquid assets has the PBOC getting ready to sell bonds into a marketplace that is increasingly concerned about a lot more than Chinese issues. More strong evidence for globally synchronized. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Economists Raise China Growth Forecasts as Exports Improve https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...
Jul 02, 2024•16 min•Ep. 818
Soft landings and resilient economy supported by strength in labor markets. At least that's the narrative, the truth is completely different. Much of the developed world is being swept up in a wave of rising unemployment. Yes, including the US.;/ Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre Bank of Canada https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/06/opening-statement-2024-06-05/ https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Jul 01, 2024•19 min•Ep. 817
Another new low for JPY as the Japanese government is shuffling up its top Finance Ministry people. Everyone continues to blame the Fed for the yen's crash but the evidence conclusively shows that's not it. This only raises the question, what is it? The yen's own track record holds the answer and it is one that applies to you. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Reuters Japan names new FX diplomat as yen hits 38-year low https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/japan-appoints-atsushi-...
Jun 30, 2024•19 min•Ep. 816
Retail and Pharmacy giant Walgreens now says there won't be a second half rebound after all, not according to its view of the consumer economy. It was seconded by Levi's and then European behemoth H&M. All of that ties together with a record low in US pending home sales and a summer driving season that's already an enormous bust as recession forces bear down. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis NBCNews Walgreens plans store closures as CEO says consumers 'stunned' by prices ht...
Jun 28, 2024•18 min•Ep. 815
China's top central banker confirmed last week the intention to radically change the operations of the Peoples' Bank of China. Some have speculated this equates to an imminent QE, but that has nothing to do with the reform. We've seen this before. The issue is bank, not central bank. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis BNP Implications of China's Impaired Transmission Mechanism https://docfinder.bnpparibas-am.com/api/files/f3e3ee55-9e19-455f-a1a6-08123581e2e9 SCMP Xi Jinping to Ch...
Jun 27, 2024•20 min•Ep. 814
There have been a whole bunch of ripples through the monetary system coming in from all angles pointing toward a sizable collateral disruption. The primary culprit(s) appears to be from Europe, starting in bond spreads surging off election uncertainty though we can't discount the ECB's rate cut as a factor. The eurodollar aftershocks are pronounced regardless of origin. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis IOSCO Securities Lending Transactions: Market Development and Implications h...
Jun 26, 2024•19 min•Ep. 813
Japanese banks have been bulking up on US junk corporate credit for the last year, driven entirely by an increasingly difficult reach for yield. That means overlooking dangers and risks which in other less distorted times would have been taken more seriously. The end result is a large and growing distortion in a key part of the credit markets. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bank of Japan Financial System Report October 2019 https://www.boj.or.jp/en/research/brp/fsr/data/fsr19...
Jun 25, 2024•20 min•Ep. 812
Copper and aluminum were soaring and so were reflation expectations for the global economy. If the world wasn't too careful, those might even lead to resurgent inflation. What's happening in those and other commodities has shocked market observers. As has the most recent global macro data. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU Eurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Ra...
Jun 24, 2024•19 min•Ep. 811
Another CRE securitized structure is reportedly causing losses for its top tier, this one in another country and from a different corner of the real estate market. This matches recent reports that big banks are quietly beginning to sell their seniors in the space. Moreover, US homebuilder activity has plunged to new lows as the crosscurrents in the economy and financing are getting more unfavorable. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Pimco Warns of More Regional Bank Fa...
Jun 23, 2024•20 min•Ep. 810
The Swiss National Bank surprised Economists by cutting rates for the second time in a row. Citing a number of potential worries starting with more recession, the rate cuts are aligned with growing dollar troubles roiling the rest of the world. Major currencies are sinking fast, hitting new lows and pointing toward the same reasoning just acted on in Switzerland. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg SNB Silence Sets Up Another Rate-Cut Cliffhanger https://www.bloomberg.co...
Jun 21, 2024•18 min•Ep. 809
A Japanese bank giant announced it was going to begin selling tens of BILLIONS in USTs and other European government bonds knowing full well the institution is going to take huge losses on the sales. Is this the start of another bank run? Will this kill the Treasury market? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis About Norinchukin Bank https://www.nochubank.or.jp/en/about/ Norinchukin Financial Summary Fiscal Year 2023 https://www.nochubank.or.jp/en/ir/results/pdf/cap_results2023_04_0...
Jun 20, 2024•20 min•Ep. 808
The data continues to pour in showing US consumers have indeed hit the wall. Spending is down according to a variety of sources, including the latest update on retail sales for May. There is also a growing body of evidence indicating there is more weakness to come starting with summer vacations. All this indicates the chances of full-blown recession are rising sharply. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis CNN Evidence is mounting that the American shopper is cutting back https://ed...
Jun 19, 2024•16 min•Ep. 807
Consumer confidence has dropped sharply over the past few months as Americans are now more concerned about jobs and incomes than prices. The shift has been so pronounced that even members of the mainstream media are questioning FOMC officials. Hardly strong and resilient, there's rising unemployment and declining confidence mixed with a bevy corporate warnings. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre FRB Chair Jay Powell Press Conference June 12, 2024 https://www.youtube.com/watch...
Jun 17, 2024•20 min•Ep. 805
Housing prices in China plunged in May, accelerating sharply after April's big drop indicating the situation in the real estate market is getting closer to becoming disorderly. There will be fallout across the world should that happen, as there already is across China's economy as the latest data also showed. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg China Real Estate, Production Slide Highlights More Stimulus Needed https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-06-17/world-...
Jun 17, 2024•19 min•Ep. 806
Conventional 'wisdom' says that when US$ interest rates go down the dollar goes down with them. Yet, it hasn't been uncommon to find Treasury yields falling as the dollar's exchange value jumps. When that has happened, nothing good comes from it. We're starting to see what looks to be that scenario setting up right now. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU Eurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The ...
Jun 16, 2024•19 min•Ep. 804
Eurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months. Sign up below: https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/rates I said the payroll number is wrong and Jay Powell of all people agrees. But if the real question is how wrong, that's where the debate is even though it should already be settled. There is plenty of evidence the US is tilting in the direction of the HH Survey and unemployment rate. And that includes the rates market which ignored the F...
Jun 14, 2024•19 min•Ep. 803
Eurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months. Sign up below: https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/rates Walgreens is the latest Big Name to cut prices because Americans have run out of money. As the company's prices go down, those will add even more to the disinflationary environment; and that's the bad side of smaller price changes. Today's May CPI completely backs up everything we've been seeing. Eurodollar University's Money & Mac...
Jun 13, 2024•18 min•Ep. 802
