Last week's ECB rate cut was...odd. Sure, officials had said for months they were going to do it. Yet, the conditions that would have to be met were not. Policymakers went ahead anyway and this past weekend's developments are a big Big Picture reason why. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Italy’s Tajani Calls for Quick Second ECB Cut After June Move https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-05/italy-s-tajani-calls-for-quick-second-ecb-cut-after-june-move The Time...
Jun 12, 2024•19 min•Ep. 801
Eurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months. Sign up below: https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/rates Consumer credit has historically been a solid recession signal, particularly how consumers alter their usage of credit cards. Some of that by choice, for many it is the bank's. Either way, when this happens it is more compelling evidence backing the rise in the unemployment rate. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Septe...
Jun 11, 2024•19 min•Ep. 800
Roaring Kitty is not the problem, nor is Gamestop the company and its stock. All are symptoms of a degraded model that increasingly rewards all the wrong behaviors. Stocks have become lottery tickets, the pie-in-the-sky way out for way too many Americans otherwise trapped in a real economy that continues to leave them behind - as the latest employment report proves. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre Roaring Kitty Livestream 6/7/2024 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U1prSyyIco...
Jun 10, 2024•19 min•Ep. 799
This has never happened before. Sure, the payroll data and CPS series have diverged before but this is something entirely new. The fact that it runs contrary to decades of history makes our determination rather easy and simple: the labor market noose is tightening. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Big US Job Gains Is Out of Sync With Recent Weaker Economic Data https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2024-06-07/us-employment-report-for-may https://www.eurodollar.univ...
Jun 09, 2024•17 min•Ep. 798
After two years unequivocally stating "inflation" was the world's biggest threat and crisis, and that nothing short of full victory would suffice, now all of a sudden Europe (and Canada) is changing it up, cutting rates even as price estimates remain well short of their standard while also appearing to be stuck that way. What is really going on here? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ECB Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB https://...
Jun 07, 2024•20 min•Ep. 797
More labor market cracks are showing and expanding. Even some of the data which has been resilient may have to be substantially changed given new information that just came to light. Labor weakness continues to clear out the FOMC setting the Treasury market up the next rally - though it isn't quite there yet. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ADP National Employment https://adpemploymentreport.com/ ADP Pay Insights https://payinsights.adp.com/?_ga=2.165121663.1500609015.17176019...
Jun 06, 2024•20 min•Ep. 796
As more weak data pours in on the US economy, the more clarity it offers on the future path of ST interest rates. As that clears up, market rates are moving lower. But why? Mainstream theory demands we consider rates as entirely supply or demand factors (like QE). Yet, the past couple years have thoroughly disproven the idea. Rates are going lower because that's where and what the fundamentals are. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Majority of Middle-Class Americans Sa...
Jun 05, 2024•19 min•Ep. 795
A rare warning strikes the gasoline market in another confirmation of economic weakness, one primary factor which forced OPEC this past weekend to extend its production restrictions. On top of those, big changes to US income estimates further corroborating the deterioration, as did a surprise drop in one of the more critical sentiment signals. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Reuters Weak US gasoline demand compounds pressure on oil ahead of OPEC+ meet https://www.reuters.com/b...
Jun 04, 2024•19 min•Ep. 794
Weak economic results continue to roll in, matching other sources of information about the US economy. From the Federal Reserve's own account and data to more corporate reports. They all have one thing - and one word - in common. GDP revisions plus the first update on the state of GDI and its bigtime mismatch. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Jun 03, 2024•19 min•Ep. 793
Tensions are rising. Aggressive actions are becoming commonplace. This isn't just sabre-rattling and posturing as war is a real possibility. It's not difficult to see why, at least what some of the motivation is. China's central bank is publicly discussing even more highly unusual steps to try to reign in the unfolding financial and economic backlash which was just confirmed by even more data. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg US Commander Warns China Is Fast Becoming ...
Jun 02, 2024•19 min•Ep. 792
More corporate mayhem brought on by the "uncertain market environment." Stocks of both Salesforce and Kohl's were hammered today as each company demonstrates in their own way just what the updated GDP numbers suggest. That latter data report also includes GDI which is almost certainly closer to the real economy all these other sources are projecting. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis CNBC Salesforce shares tumble 20%, on pace for worst day since 2004 https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05...
May 31, 2024•18 min•Ep. 791
More CRE developments today and last week this time with a focus on Europe. New reports indicate losses are coming soon and data from the ECB shows why there are so many concerns. We also have the latest bank lending figures which show more troubling signs under the cover of 'extend and pretend.' Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ECB Commercial real estate and financial stability – new insights from the euro area credit register https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stabilit...
May 30, 2024•18 min•Ep. 790
More data released today which shows the US economy has taken a turn for the worse. Consumers are running out of options and are turning in huge proportions to alternate means to stay afloat. One of those alternatives, however, is being closed off as the American banks are now actively cutting back risk while going on a buying binge for safety. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis nerdwallet 2024 State of Consumer Credit Report https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/credit-cards/2024-c...
May 29, 2024•18 min•Ep. 789
What's misinformation about the economy? It's a well-known fact policymakers and Economists outright lie about any situation. But why? They say it's for your own good. The lies are beginning to pile up so much that officials now have to lie about their lies, including the very theory behind all of this especially when some of the theoreticians who came up with it no longer want to be the very purveyors of misinformation. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis George DeMartino Should ...
May 28, 2024•20 min•Ep. 788
It doesn't help that policymakers and Economists quite openly admit they will and even should lie to you about the state of the economy. But to go so far as to call legitimate and widely-shared criticism misinformation is taking this too far. The reason it is going this way is just how difficult the situation has become, which brings us back to the first point: who's actually telling the truth? Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre Should Economists Deceive? Prosocial Lying, Pa...
May 27, 2024•18 min•Ep. 787
After months of silence, a couple of critical developments from the beleaguered commercial real estate sector show up all at once. For the first time since the Global not-Financial Crisis, a senior tranche of a CLO took losses - a lot of losses - while redemptions threaten to force liquidations at one of the spaces more important CRE funds. Not good first signs for the bubble unwind. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg A Really Bad Sign for Commercial Real Estate https:/...
May 26, 2024•19 min•Ep. 786
On top of dumping Treasuries (which I covered in detail in a previous video https://youtu.be/j00_S1iug9c), China's also dumping its excess production on the rest of the world. The tactic has become so pervasive governments worldwide are responding with more than idle threats. But what are they really worried about given this means cheaper stuff and lower prices? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Remarks by Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen at Press Conference Ahead of th...
May 24, 2024•19 min•Ep. 785
The retail giant's latest earnings report confirmed...well, pretty much everything. Inflation risks, consumer capacities, the direction of interest rates and more. Target's results help setting the debate on prices while also dovetailing right in with a whole bunch of the latest figures on especially gasoline and even rents. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Target Corp First Quarter Earnings https://corporate.target.com/press/release/2024/05/target-corporation-reports-first-qua...
May 23, 2024•19 min•Ep. 784
There is a widespread feeling that something doesn't 'feel' right about the economic situation. While the official world vehemently denies it, they have every incentive not to admit the truth. There are various ways and methods to quantify living standards, especially material standards. Using officials' own methodology, we find the 'feeling' is very well grounded in material fact(s). Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Boston Fed How do We Measure Standard of Living https://www.b...
May 22, 2024•19 min•Ep. 783
Apple becomes just latest corporation to report results in line with recent macro statistics. That list now includes Home Depot and even today's Red Lobster bankruptcy. People are struggling and businesses are noticing and feeling the impact. But how far has it gone? Some other metrics are not encouraging. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Apple Second Quarter Earnings https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2024/05/apple-reports-second-quarter-results/ CNBC Apple announces largest-ever ...
May 21, 2024•18 min•Ep. 782
Business at Walmart is brisk these days...and that's a big problem. The better things go for the company especially at the grocery department the worse you know it is in the economy. And the big retailer just put up robust results because it isn't just struggling Americans coming in to shop, Walmart is now getting tons of business from high-income earners, too, because now they're struggling. Not exactly the soft landing signal we'd hoped. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre N...
May 20, 2024•18 min•Ep. 781
The Chinese have sold a record amount of US Treasuries. Again. Most mainstream explanations point to political motives including many asserting an intentional act to move away from the dollar. The actual reason is indeed monetary but not at all in that way. The important immediate implications tell us a lot about the conditions for the globally synchronized economy. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg China Sells Record Sum of US Debt Amid Signs of Diversification https:...
May 19, 2024•19 min•Ep. 780
A major global central bank would never hike rates during a prolonged recession, would it? You might be surprised to find out the answer is a solid, yes. Not only did it just happen, the reasons why tell us a whole lot about the real aim of central bank policies, where they come from, and, more important of all, the status of our globally synchronized world. The cycle drama just got taken up a notch. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Japan’s Economy Sputters as Dismal ...
May 17, 2024•18 min•Ep. 779
They called it the most important economic update in living memory, holding the key to everything from inflation to economy and interest rates. When it came out, it wasn't what everyone thought and even more interesting those numbers ended up being overshadowed by another set alarmingly consistent with everything else we've been seeing lately. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis BLS April US CPI press release https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf Bloomberg Here Are the Key ...
May 16, 2024•18 min•Ep. 778
When the person who is supposed to help you find a job finds out they no longer have one themselves, that's a warning sign about the economy. Those have been proliferating lately and mostly focused on employment. This fits nicely (in a bad way) into other late cycle signals coming across including a sharp rise in consumer credit delinquencies. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Indeed Message from CEO https://www.indeed.com/press/releases/a-message-from-our-ceo-chris-hyams-2 FRBN...
May 15, 2024•19 min•Ep. 777
China's total credit in April actually fell for only the third time and by the most ever. Clearly the government is alarmed by that as well as the distinct lack of traction in the real economy (more deflation in producer prices, minimal gains in consumer prices). We'll go over what was just reported, what the government's next government plan is likely to be, and what the market(s) reaction(s) has(have) been. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis NYT Biden Looks to Thwart Surge of C...
May 14, 2024•19 min•Ep. 776
There is a resurgence underway not from consumer prices as everyone thinks, instead the use of the term "stagflation." This is really nothing more than the shift in narrative attempting to incorporate more visible economic weakness while still keeping it the idea "inflation." But as the former takes the forefront, the latter will continue to fade until what's left isn't even stagnation. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twit...
May 13, 2024•19 min•Ep. 775
Another critical economic measures shows big negative changes and they aren't "inflation" problems. It's not just that American consumers are cracking, the consistent theme which keeps coming up over and over is jobs. The US labor market has been stuck in half a recession already, is this now the other half? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis UofM Surveys of Consumers http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/ CNBC Consumer sentiment tumbles as inflation fears surge, closely watched survey sh...
May 12, 2024•20 min•Ep. 774
The one news article in the media said it all; more companies are now cutting their prices despite inflation. Except, no, it isn't in spite of other price changes, instead in response to them. The economy isn't inflationary, it is weak and getting weaker. Eye opening new data is alarmingly consistent with the price cuts. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis CNN Retailers jacked up prices and squeezed consumers. They might have just blinked https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/05/business/re...
May 10, 2024•20 min•Ep. 773
Japan's government conducted three (unconfirmed) major currency interventions in less than a week. Already JPY is falling almost like they never happened. It's the dollar that's the matter because what's the matter isn't just Japan and like a lot of things energy is the key. As the Japanese understand all too well, energy means dollars. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg BOJ’s Ueda Ramps Up Yen Warnings While Traders Keep Selling https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...
May 09, 2024•19 min•Ep. 772
