EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-spring Gold continues to soar, hitting almost as many record highs as stocks. And that's a problem because unlike stocks gold tends to be a useful indicator and warning sign. There are three theories as to what's behind the golden surge. Here we examine the evidence and consistency of all three. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis FRB Ch...
Apr 02, 2024•19 min•Ep. 741
It is critical to understand what is happening in China first of all. The country is suffering from a confluence of longer-term structural imbalances butting up against near-term strategies ostensibly aimed at minimizing the fallout. The risks are complex though in broad terms pretty easy to sketch out. They include potential impacts on global liquidity, one of the most misunderstood topics in finance. If are interested in Alf’s Macro Investment Fund, drop him an email for information at this ad...
Apr 01, 2024•21 min•Ep. 740
CHECK OUT EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-spring What is it with banks these days? Well, this time it may not be the bank themselves. According to the latest data from the ECB, European depositories are lending loads to non-banks over there. That's not a good sign and in this video you'll see why that is - and why it isn't just Europeans who should be seriously concerned. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ECB Manual on MFI statist...
Mar 31, 2024•19 min•Ep. 739
We keep getting more and more recession confirmation. Soft data comes in ugly and is easily corroborated by hard estimates from a variety of sources. The only part missing is the layoffs. Where are they? Part of the answer comes from hoarding, though the more important piece is not what you might think. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Mar 29, 2024•21 min•Ep. 738
The Japanese are really getting bothered by weakness in the yen. But where is it coming from, and what might be done about it? Officials in Tokyo are threatening to intervene again, but a review of past interventions shows not just the folly of any attempt, better yet some useful clues about what's really happening here. It isn't Japan. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Japan Amps Up Intervention Threat as Yen Hits Lowest Since 1990 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...
Mar 28, 2024•18 min•Ep. 737
As more signs of instability pile up around the world but also coming from inside the US. Those are evidence for the continuing downside to the supply shock, the same cycle, not a soft landing. What are the key differences? Employing a few critical datapoints it's easy to see how much of a divergence there already has been and what that likely means for the upcoming period. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnide...
Mar 27, 2024•20 min•Ep. 736
Something just hit the US banking system. Tons of cash gone from their balance sheet seemingly as they reallocate their assets. At the same time this is going on, the dollar has surged against primarily Asian currencies rocking those countries and leading to several government backlashes. Are these all related? The answer appears to be, yes. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Mar 26, 2024•19 min•Ep. 735
The bedrock assumption for a soft landing in the US is continued consumer spending. The economy around the world really needs Americans to keep spending at close to the same rate. Instead, more evidence is coming in that they are just out of gas. In addition to macro statistics, more retailers are confirming the downturn and no longer just those who sell to lower-income consumers. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre Target Introduces New Brand, dealworthy, Featuring Low Prices...
Mar 25, 2024•19 min•Ep. 734
It isn't prospective rate cuts, the downward bias in market interest rates comes from real risks in the global system. The biggest of those are US commercial real estate (CRE) and China. Key developments in both show that the situation is fragile and that difficulties are serious even if playing out mainly in the shadows. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Real Estate Pain Is Showing Up in an Obscure Investment Product https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-19/...
Mar 24, 2024•21 min•Ep. 733
Few were expecting anything more than a few franc sales from the Swiss National Bank today. Instead, the SNB boldly cut its ST rate specifically because it knows what's coming from around the rest of the world. And that doesn't mean inflation in Switzerland or anywhere else. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis SNB Monetary Policy Assessment March 21, 2024 https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20240321 SNB Introductory remarks, news conferen...
Mar 22, 2024•19 min•Ep. 732
A wild FOMC meeting triggered by a rejiggering of the dots. Those don't really matter except as insight into how confused policymakers have become. Why are they confused? Rate hikes don't appear to be working, so they are having a hard time deciding what should happen next. Markets aren't so conflicted, only about the likeliest path for ST rates. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis FOMC March 2024 Policy Statement https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary2024032...
Mar 21, 2024•19 min•Ep. 731
Well, they did it. The Bank of Japan ended its NIRP and YCC, raising its call money rate for the first time in forever. That's not the issue. Why they did it is open for debate, one that right now is taking place across markets. It's not going well for the rate-hikers. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis BoJ Statement March 19, 2024 https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2024/k240319a.pdf https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU...
Mar 20, 2024•20 min•Ep. 730
The Fed. Japanese destiny. Down Under. The Old Lady, Mexico, Brazil, and the Czech Republic. And those are just the start. A ton of central banks are going to be deliberating just this week. And while their policies don't really mean much to the economy, they can impact markets in the short run while also providing some somewhat useful clues about where the world really stands. Here's what to look for as it unfolds. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.univer...
Mar 19, 2024•23 min•Ep. 729
The Fed shut down the BTFP, but just before it closed billions in loans were made to banks over the repeated objections of policymakers. Officials have been pushing depositories toward the Discount Window to the point even the FHLB system is dissuading its members from using its own advances as emergency liquidity. Yet, the last-minute BTFP indicates banks just aren't doing it with some substantial implications. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre FHFA FHLBank System at 100: F...
Mar 18, 2024•18 min•Ep. 728
China just held its National People's Congress amidst more economic and financial turmoil than at any time in its modern history. Two things quickly became clear: Xi Jinping continues to insulate himself politically from any potential fallout; his government has no idea what to be about it. The latest data from Chinese banks and the country's housing market highlight the gravity of the situation and how little policies are helping. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis People's Dail...
Mar 17, 2024•20 min•Ep. 727
More recession signals. We've got the major dollar store chains in the US closing stores and reporting troubling results about consumer behavior. Those are now backed up by hard evidence in the form of retail sales, which have been much worse than initial thought. Behind everything, the looming recession, is the fact oil prices are NOT inflation nor inflationary. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Dollar General Q4 2023 results https://investor.dollargeneral.com/websites/dollarge...
Mar 14, 2024•17 min•Ep. 726
Is "inflation" back? A big part of the answer to that question comes from the oil market, though not at all in the way you might think. A revisit of the 2008 crude oil bubble/shock to see what it can tell us about a lot more than consumer prices in 2024. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis OPEC March 2024 Announcement https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/7305.htm Remarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke October 21, 2004 https://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2004/2004...
Mar 13, 2024•19 min•Ep. 725
Today is the last day for new loans from the Fed's BTFP, and there is still $165 billion being borrowed from it. In fact, that balance increased just last week. What are the implications of the shutdown? We keep coming back to the same factor which was all over last March. And with CRE looming in the background, too. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Mar 11, 2024•20 min•Ep. 724
As serious economic weakness begins to increasingly show itself, the Fed is going to pivot and thereby try to sell the public on lower rates as somehow being something positive. A small bit of economy insurance and nothing more. And they'll point to 1995 as for why. In reality, this is already nothing like thirty years ago. Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Mar 11, 2024•18 min•Ep. 723
Evidence for US recession and labor market woes are getting much stronger. While everyone fixates on the growing absurdity of the payroll revisions, the CPS data threw up THREE very strong recession signals, each historically validated, showing this isn't a short-term fluctuation or narrow, isolated occurrence. Plus, a fourth signal that is entire consistent with those other three. Employment recession changes everything. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar....
Mar 10, 2024•20 min•Ep. 722
Full Disclosure: Jeff has worked with Mr. Saxe as a trustee for a stablecoin project Ryne is the COO for. The mainstream image of cryptocurrencies is cowboys and charlatans playing around with technology that doesn't seem to have any practical use. Kids are getting rich - many going broke - on what can appear to be trivial functions. Reality couldn't be farther from the truth. As Ryne points out, one key problem is that those who are indeed making a good-faith effort at making something and maki...
Mar 09, 2024•27 min•Ep. 721
China's 10-year government bond yield just reached a 20-year low. UST yields are moving down again. What does it all mean; more importantly why do we need to care? It isn't just the signal bond curves provide, it is just as much the lack of direct access to the information we truly need. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis FOMC Transcript February 1999 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19990203meeting.pdf BIS CGFS Papers No 65 US dollar funding: an internatio...
Mar 08, 2024•20 min•Ep. 720
Evidence continues to show we're in half a recession already. There is a huge discrepancy between the "strong" US employment in the media and what's actually happening. Even mainstream sources are being forced to deal with how different the jobs market is to those actually experiencing it. These aren't isolated cases or stories, the data backing them up continues to pile up. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis CNBC Economists say the labor market is strong — but job seekers don’t ...
Mar 07, 2024•18 min•Ep. 719
Gold is high but not on Waller. Fed Governor Chris Waller seems to have sparked the most recent jump in the metal, with people jumping all over their inference of some incoming Reverse Operation Twist. Untangling the fedspeak from so many huge misconceptions about gold - it is a TERRIBLE inflation hedge, as you'll see - in order to make sense of another legit red flag. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis FRB Christopher Waller Thoughts on Quantitative Tightening, Including Remarks...
Mar 06, 2024•19 min•Ep. 718
It's bad enough that China's shakiest real estate firms are going to be creating big losses and not just for other Chinese financials. Now comes word the last remaining investment grade developer is rumored to be experiencing liquidity trouble, too. It is a sign of further progress - in the wrong direction. We need to understand what it means when Beijing is this impotent. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Mar 05, 2024•20 min•Ep. 717
Digital technology is revolutionizing every aspect of our lives, now including money. The first in a three-part series as Jeff travels to ETH Denver, the world's preeminent Ethereum conference, to start digging in to digital with those who are actually doing it, the insiders. Up first, world-renowned scholar, investor and, yes, philosopher-historian Manny Rincon Cruz. Eurodollar University's conversations w/Manny Rincon Cruz
Mar 05, 2024•57 min•Ep. 716
Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Mar 05, 2024•19 min•Ep. 715
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis AP US national debt hits record $34 trillion as Congress gears up for funding fight https://apnews.com/article/national-debt-deficits-biden-economy-inflation-record-b4258704f830c7f6e9c5e693748216cb Milton Friedman Newsweek “Deficits and Inflation" https://miltonfriedman.hoover.org/internal/media/dispatcher/214251/full https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Mar 02, 2024•21 min•Ep. 714
Unlike most terms thrown around Economics, 'globally synchronized' is no joke. It also isn't a recent development. Throughout modern history, when a sizable portion of the world starts to show contraction it will spread throughout the rest with very few spared. It is a poignant reminder given how the same is happening right now. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis BoJ New Procedures for Money Market Operations and Monetary Easing Mar 19, 2001 https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/...
Feb 29, 2024•18 min•Ep. 713
To get the rest of the Lyn Alden, George Gammon conversation and a whole lot more, become a Eurodollar University member or DDA subscriber. You can find the information about those here: https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1 Japan is in recession, one that is getting worse. Japanese officials tell you not to believe your lying eyes, inflation is the greatest risk. All the data conclusively shows it is not, that Japan's contraction is a product of global forces that just so happen to be ...
Feb 28, 2024•20 min•Ep. 712
