To get the rest of the Lyn Alden, George Gammon conversation and a whole lot more, become a Eurodollar University member or DDA subscriber. You can find the information about those here: https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1 How accurate are market tools like spreads? If you're looking for absolute precision, you're in the wrong business. These measures are highly useful for broad purposes. Unfortunately, history shows those point in the direction of serious general economic misadventur...
Feb 27, 2024•19 min•Ep. 711
To get the rest of this conversation and a whole lot more, become a Eurodollar University member or DDA subscriber. You can find the information about those here: https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1 Eurodollar University's conversations, Guests Lyn Alden & George Gammon https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU #lynalden
Feb 26, 2024•40 min•Ep. 710
The Federal Reserve "prints" bank reserves, that's it. To understand why that matters, you have to understand where bank reserves came from and what they were and are intended for. It isn't at all what you think. But don't take my word for it; that comes straight from the Fed itself. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis FRB Atlanta The Evolution of the Check as a Means of Payment: A Historical Survey, November 2008 https://www.atlantafed.org/-/media/documents/research/publications/...
Feb 25, 2024•19 min•Ep. 709
If you happened to miss today's Webinar on CRE and the possible dangers from it, you can still watch the replay. Follow the link below. https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/23/1ym21crukhgh4 The FOMC's minutes for its January meeting shed light on the dilemma currently hitting policymakers. They're seeming embrace of the lower rates from last bond rally was no fluke. They instead share our growing and NOTABLE concerns over possible substantial fallout from CRE. However, they also can't help the...
Feb 23, 2024•20 min•Ep. 708
Another rash of layoffs is sweeping the US economy and its labor market. Only this time, unlike last year, the background behind them is far more concerning and even dangerous (economically, speaking). Those threatened by being thrown out of work know the score isn't entirely made up from those job cuts. It's actually the grim reality of no hiring. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis CNBC Worries grow over a K-shaped economic recovery that favors the wealthy https://www.cnbc.com/2...
Feb 22, 2024•21 min•Ep. 707
If you happened to miss today's Webinar on CRE and the possible dangers from it, you can still watch the replay. Follow the link below. https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/23/1ym21crukhgh4 Chinese "banks" opted for an unusually large cut to China's benchmark 5-year Loan Prime Rate. In truth, that appears at the behest of Beijing where authorities are becoming increasingly desperate. Nothing they are doing is working - and Chinese banks know it. China has a growing bank problem on its hands be...
Feb 21, 2024•18 min•Ep. 706
If you happened to miss today's Webinar on CRE and the possible dangers from it, you can still watch the replay. Follow the link below. https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/Eurodollarwebinar As more countries around the world "unexpectedly" succumb to recession, the consequences aren't strictly economic. While globally synchronized means many more will follow, the costs need to be accounted for in human terms. Why does it feel like half the planet is on the move? It's the economy, stupid. Eurodo...
Feb 20, 2024•18 min•Ep. 705
There are just a few more spaces left to sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details: https://www.eurodollar.university It's a recession rash. Economic growth expectations slashed, "unexpectedly", of course. Technical recessions spreading around the world's major economies because real ones are. Yet, still the idea of a US decoupling persists resting largely on a few past-tense stats and, most of all, equity investors. Eurodollar University's con...
Feb 19, 2024•20 min•Ep. 704
Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details: https://www.eurodollar.university There are a lot of parallels now and the 1970s - and inflation isn't actually one of them. The whole world saw recession coming in 1979, even that vast majority of those on the FOMC. Except, there was no recession in '79. It's what leads up to contraction that matters, not when it finally gets noticed. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https:/...
Feb 18, 2024•19 min•Ep. 703
Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details: https://www.eurodollar.university This is getting out of hand. Not only is it a major risk and not just to those "invested" in equities, there are several deeply troubling reasons to care why several major economy stock indexes are setting new highs while the economies allegedly tied to them suffer substantial now-recognized recessions. This isn't going to end well. Eurodollar University's Money & ...
Feb 16, 2024•19 min•Ep. 702
Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details: https://www.eurodollar.university Stocks keep hitting new highs yet one of those markets which is doing just that also proves that it can't be because of the economy. This one leaves little doubt especially as so many other markets pile on with their views (not even talking bonds here). Stocks are buying a 'liquidity' story, not actual real world fundamentals. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro ...
Feb 15, 2024•19 min•Ep. 701
Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details: https://www.eurodollar.university No one remembers the "red hot" and "sticky" supply shock of 2010 and 2011 BECAUSE it was, yes, transitory. The Fed didn't need to raise rates or do anything. In fact, the FOMC was busy with more "accommodating" policies like Operation Twist and then two more QEs, yet consumer prices disinflate-d anyway. Outside of one artificial piece of the CPI, the January 2024 versi...
Feb 14, 2024•19 min•Ep. 700
Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details: https://www.eurodollar.university China's yuan has been constantly put forward as a contender to 'dethrone' the dollar. Whatever sliver of a tiny chance it may have had before, it's zero now. The greater challenge is how to replace the existing reserve regime which does need an update. But that means eurodollar NOT dollar. This is not a trivial distinction; it is, in fact, everything. Eurodollar Univer...
Feb 13, 2024•20 min•Ep. 699
To get the rest of the conversation, become a Eurodollar University member and/or DDA subscriber. We've got unadvertised sales available that will allow you access to all the EDU content, including the the full hour-plus with Ken here: https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1 Eurodollar University's conversations w/Ken McElroy https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Feb 12, 2024•28 min•Ep. 698
Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details: https://www.eurodollar.university The more they tell us how great everything is, the more you know it isn't. Americans like their compatriots from around the world know something isn't right. We've seen this kind of divergence from "elite" opinion, descriptions, even mainstream labor data before. Long and silent depression. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com...
Feb 11, 2024•22 min•Ep. 697
Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details: https://www.eurodollar.university You might be amazed at just how much Chinese authorities have tried to stabilize their system. If you knew, you'd understand why so much of Beijing is verging on panic-mode. The huge response has come up empty which is a clear signal for how much trouble there really is. For his part, Xi Jinping purged another official unsurprisingly related to financial markets (stock...
Feb 09, 2024•18 min•Ep. 696
Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details: https://www.eurodollar.university What's behind the renewed banking woes? Sure, we know it almost certainly has to do with commercial real estate, but we need to get a sense of how much trouble that might lead to. Digging into what information we have available, let's put some hard numbers on the CRE bubble while we go over the latest developments among the US regionals. Eurodollar University's Money &...
Feb 08, 2024•21 min•Ep. 695
To sign up for our free February 19 webinar, follow the links at our homepage here: https://www.eurodollar.university According to these historically validated datapoints, the worst is straight ahead for the US in 2024. In just two charts, we can place together three critical pieces of macroeconomic information which provides a useful guide for determining cyclical circumstances in the US economy. Bank lending, commercial borrowing and, most important, commercial employing. Eurodollar University...
Feb 07, 2024•18 min•Ep. 694
After an "unexpected" late 2023 plunge, oil prices rebounded and the WTI curve even managed to flip from contango to backwardation. Rather than point to a firming global situation, the latest move in the crude market instead proves it was just Red Sea shipping fears. A shocking collapse in German trade reminds us of what oil's fundamentals really are. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis IEA Monthly Oil Report December 2023 https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-december-202...
Feb 06, 2024•17 min•Ep. 693
Even though we don't yet have a topic or a possible guest scheduled, you can still sign up for the next EDU webinar anyway which will take place on Monday, February 19 at 6:30pm EDT. Link here: https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/Eurodollarwebinar It's not just the payroll data that is conflicted with itself, there are a number of other mainstream sources where the economic situation depicted by them could not be more different. Stepping back and looking at it all, we end up finding more lining...
Feb 05, 2024•17 min•Ep. 692
Even though we don't yet have a topic or a possible guest scheduled, you can still sign up for the next EDU webinar anyway which will take place on Monday, February 19 at 6:30pm EDT. Link here: https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/Eurodollarwebinar This is getting ridiculous. We've become used to seeing Est. Survey vs. HH Survey in US labor data, but now it's Est. Survey vs. Est. Survey. The headline payroll number shows one thing, then the rest of the same data says the exact opposite. What in ...
Feb 04, 2024•18 min•Ep. 691
If you're looking for a guide on collateral and how to spot shortfalls in it, get your copy of EDU's report on collateral shortages here: https://funnel.eurodollar.university/collateral This isn't about a relatively small New York community bank no one had heard of until yesterday. The markets reactions to it were far more important than the details of that bank's announcement. There is not a whole lot of faith in banking, and it may be the ball is rolling once again on that front. Eurodollar Un...
Feb 02, 2024•20 min•Ep. 690
Even though we don't yet have a topic or a possible guest scheduled, you can still sign up for the next EDU webinar anyway which will take place on Monday, February 19 at 6:30pm EDT. Link here: https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/Eurodollarwebinar Suggest topics or someone to join Jeff on Presidents Day in the comments. Wild day in bonds has the market doing something highly unusual. There "shouldn't" be a rally in LT rates so soon after the last big one. Global markets are strong anyway which ...
Feb 01, 2024•20 min•Ep. 689
Full interview with Brent Johnson on Eurodollar Dominance https://funnel.eurodollar.university/dollar You won't believe how much debt our broke government issued last year. MULTIPLE trillions. At the same time, the Federal Reserve did three-quarters of a trillion USTs roll off its balance sheet (QT). Rather than destroy the Treasury market or bonds in general, quite the opposite has happened. You NEED to ask yourself WHY. There is no soft landing here. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro A...
Jan 31, 2024•17 min•Ep. 688
New York Fed's Empire PMI kicked off the January data cycle by plunging. In the meantime, the rest of the regional data filled in the picture for the month and the final one of the group ended up more like the first one than not. We shouldn't underestimate the usefulness of these surveys especially since there are numerous signs, however long it might end up being, this is still a cycle. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey https://www.dallasfed.o...
Jan 30, 2024•19 min•Ep. 687
To see the rest of Jeff's conversation with Hugh, become an EDU member or DDA subscriber. There is so much more available for EDU members and subscribers, starting with loads of background material, video series like the Basics, multi-part presentations, Q&A vids, Classroom pieces that go over the crucial parts of money and the eurodollar system. Subscribers to EDU's Deep Dive Analysis (DDA) get daily deep dives into current events, what's really happening and what they mean. We are having a...
Jan 29, 2024•34 min•Ep. 686
The Fed keeps having to screw around with what should be its primary job. The Fed is now trying to go back to the past with its Discount Window, hoping to fix it so the program might work this time. Officials are in a bind being forced to unwind the BTFP after unintentionally granting too generous terms. What are they missing? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Jan 29, 2024•22 min•Ep. 685
For those in the Soft Landing USA camp, there was everything in today's Q4 2023 GDP report. Growth rate, consumers, an even more solid dose of disinflation. Near perfect Goldilocks. So why wasn't it taken that way in the market? Some answers from Europe. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Lagarde Says It’s Likely ECB Will Cut Rates in Summer https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-17/davos-2024-lagarde-says-agressive-rate-cut-bets-don-t-help-ecb ECB Monetary Pol...
Jan 26, 2024•17 min•Ep. 684
Unnerved by recent developments in financial markets and its economy, Chinese authorities unveiled a rash of new measures. To understand the degree of danger, we examine the proposals before keying on critical signals like repo and interbank conditions. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis PBOC statement http://www.pbc.gov.cn/goutongjiaoliu/113456/113469/5218615/index.html Bloomberg China Weighs Stock Market Rescue Package Backed by $278 Billion https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...
Jan 25, 2024•20 min•Ep. 683
Beside the S&P 500, Japan's Nikkei 225 has been basking in the global spotlight. Surging to its highest in decades and not all that far anymore from its own all-time mark, it might seem Japanese equity investors are expressing loads of confidence from the Asian perspective. Just like US indices, however, there are a number of reasons to look at the Nikkei with caution - starting with China and then going from there. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.un...
Jan 24, 2024•19 min•Ep. 682
