First part of Mike Green conversation, including the retirement bombshell from IBM: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6jfIDNqVnZo The rest of it is available for EDU members and DDA subscribers. If you aren't one, you can become one here: https://www.eurodollar.university/memberssubscriptions The S&P 500 hit another record high. That's proof the US is on track to achieve its Goldilocks scenario, soft landing and disinflation combined. Or is it? What do stock indexes really tell us? Sifting thr...
Jan 23, 2024•19 min•Ep. 681
You often hear someone in the media say the bond market is currently pricing for five or six Fed rate cuts. That's not actually what's being priced. This is not a subtle difference or a few degrees of interpretation. This is night and day with stocks potentially getting caught in between. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Jan 22, 2024•19 min•Ep. 680
EDU's report on Collateral Shortages https://funnel.eurodollar.university/collateral What was last year's banking crisis really about? Deposit flight was only the first part of it. In a bombshell report prepared by a working group of the G30, it admits the biggest challenge for banks and central banks alike was...collateral. What the group recommends authorities do about it is...insane. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis G30 BANK FAILURES AND CONTAGION LENDER OF LAST RESORT, LIQU...
Jan 21, 2024•18 min•Ep. 679
More data from the Chinese economy and real estate market which further confirms the dire situation China is facing. Xi Jinping is facing that situation by tightening his grip even further, waging a stepped-up war against corruption even though Xi declared corruption had been defeated five years ago. This isn't about corruption; the more the Chinese gov't does, including purges, the worst it is getting. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis SCMP ‘No one is safe’: China purges record...
Jan 19, 2024•18 min•Ep. 678
Ho ho wut? Data looks awful one day but fine the next. Yesterday's Empire Fed plunged, yet today the gov't reports retail sales numbers that look fine. Was Christmas a bust, or was it strong like everyone now says? Reconciling these numbers - including production - isn't really difficult starting with "strong" context. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU #recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation...
Jan 18, 2024•19 min•Ep. 677
The Empire Fed's manufacturing PMI absolutely plummeted in January 2024. While it may be just one region for one month, these numbers are some of the worst on record and convincingly add to the growing list of evidence that the US economy is heading into the non-linear part of the recession process. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Germany Narrowly Escapes Recession But Outlook Remains Tough https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-15/germany-s-economy-shrank-l...
Jan 17, 2024•19 min•Ep. 676
To watch the full interview you can access it with our deep dive or membership site https://www.eurodollar.university This conversation wasn’t just an inside account of LTCM and a recall of history at of those famous crossroads, Jim Rickards and Jeff ruminate over the implications from the affair which are still reverberating through time right up to this day. The struggles to contain the fallout from the debacle are every bit as relevant now as it was shocking way back then. Eurodollar Universi...
Jan 16, 2024•28 min•Ep. 675
Jim Rickards Interview (1st Part) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NA4JH9S39wg For memberships and subscriptions, there's a "secret" sale going on here: https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1 Chinese leadership ended 2023 on several ominous notes. Economic and importantly financial data continues to defy expectations for a turnaround adding more evidence to the perilous situation. At the same time, the government is making more extreme political action, purging more top officials under th...
Jan 15, 2024•21 min•Ep. 674
EDU's Guide to What A Collateral Shortage Looks Like Link Here: https://funnel.eurodollar.university/collateral A big move in short-term rates especially the critical 2-year UST has yield curves closing in on un-inversion. That is a critical threshold and unlike a few months ago it is unfolding in the "bull" direction. It is very important to understand what is happening and why it really matters. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https...
Jan 14, 2024•19 min•Ep. 673
Consumer prices accelerated in December, so that means the term "transitory disinflation" will be out in full force for the third time in a year. The risk of actual inflation, however, remains incredibly low to non-existent regardless of what that term implies. And that's easily established by the growing mountain of evidence and a host of clear historical parallels. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis BLS CPI Press Release Jan 11, 2024 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htm htt...
Jan 12, 2024•20 min•Ep. 672
EDU's Guide to What A Collateral Shortage Looks Like Link Here: https://funnel.eurodollar.university/collateral So, there were a whole lot of repo fails at the end of December. What does that mean? What are repo fails? They are often fickle and fleeting, but they can tell us something very important about just what we want to know where it comes to the beating heart of the global monetary system. Decoding fails is actually pretty easy with a little bit of knowledge and history. Eurodollar Univer...
Jan 11, 2024•21 min•Ep. 671
The recent bond rally - which may not be over - was one for the books. The 10-year US Treasury dropped nearly 120 bps off its yield in only 47 trading days. A move that big and that fast for the 10s had only happened six other times over the last three decades. We'll go over what that means and what it can tell us about where we go from here; bonds and everything else. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU...
Jan 10, 2024•20 min•Ep. 670
EDU's Guide to What A Collateral Shortage Looks Like Link Here: https://funnel.eurodollar.university/collateral While everyone was looking into year-end SOFR, real money stuff went haywire. Repo fails absolutely surged and swap spreads collapsed more than they had already. Dealers are hoarding Treasuries at the same time where banks are hitting up the Fed's BTFP. What do all of these and others mean, including the BTFP? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis IOSCO/CPSS Securities Len...
Jan 09, 2024•20 min•Ep. 669
Friday delivered labor market body blows to the soft landing's chances. Friday was filled with labor market data that isn't leaving us any gray area. The evidence continues to stack up and in more convincing fashion the US economy bonds were right. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU #recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #ratecuts #feder...
Jan 08, 2024•19 min•Ep. 668
Full interview with Mr. Milkshake, Brent Johnson, on eurodollar (not dollar) dominance: https://funnel.eurodollar.university/dollar While many cheered another payroll number, in reality the labor data were a complete trainwreck. The Household Survey's measure of employment plunged and full-time jobs crashed by an almost record amount during December. What's the meaning behind this bevy of increasingly grim numbers? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/J...
Jan 07, 2024•19 min•Ep. 667
Payrolls are positive. The unemployment rate is incredibly low. Stocks are soaring. What recession? Furthermore, we've been talking about one for so long it is more than understandable why people have tuned it out. But how could we know the recession call is wrong? It isn't just the continued lack of layoffs. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU https://www.eurodollar.university RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 #recession #...
Jan 05, 2024•20 min•Ep. 666
The level of hiring in the US has collapsed in a way we haven't seen since 2008 and 2009 (outside the pandemic lockdowns). JOLTS survey results show the largest 6-month decline in hiring of any same-sized period over the entire 21st century (ex. '20). The labor market is more than halfway into recession; but what about that other half? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU https://www.eurodollar.university RealClearMarkets Essays: https://...
Jan 04, 2024•19 min•Ep. 665
China's 'president' Xi Jinping made a startling admission in his New Year address. For the first time he said the economy struggled last year. The confession merely underscores the difficulties the country is currently facing and has so far been unable to surmount. But why? As more data pours in, we see how the answer to that question isn't actually Chinese. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Full text of President Xi Jinping's 2024 New Year message https://english.news.cn/202312...
Jan 03, 2024•19 min•Ep. 664
For quite a while there, you couldn't go long without hearing about how the 2020s were about to repeat the 1970s. That was never any real risk, but why? What is inflation? Where does it actually come from (spoiler: not the Fed)? Most important of all, how can we tell? The answer to all those questions are painfully clear, but once more Economics has the public thinking only backwards. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU https://www.eurod...
Jan 02, 2024•22 min•Ep. 663
Last Chance for Christmas Sale https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1 What's the difference between financial and monetary crisis? Everything. Whether anyone knows it or not, we continue to live in the long shadows of 2008. They are deflationary more than anything, too, a Silent Depression that so long as we remain stuck in it will make the 2020s into something more like the 2010s. That's not good. Getting out starts with finally a proper accounting of 15 years ago. Eurodollar University...
Dec 31, 2023•22 min•Ep. 662
Bond yields have plunged and not just US Treasuries. Yet, stocks are sitting at or above all-time highs. In fact, the two seem to be related at least in the short run. The bond rally began in late October and the stock surge followed a week later. But what bonds are suggesting wouldn't be good for stocks. So, what are stocks really doing? Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
Dec 30, 2023•18 min•Ep. 661
Only a few days left for EDU's Christmas Sale, memberships, and research subscriptions. https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1 What happens when the Fed really pivots and starts cutting rates? We know what's supposed to happen, though it never does. Before we get into the history of rate cut programs, we first have to understand why "monetary" policy targets interest rates in the first place. Once we do that it's easy to see why rate cuts are all hype. Eurodollar University's Money &...
Dec 29, 2023•20 min•Ep. 660
Does any of this stuff matter? If you stand back and look at this year, all of these weird financial indications may not have appeared to make any difference. The US economy, in particular, seems just fine if not better than fine. They haven't been any more bank failures. Yet, bond yields are crashing here, which is not something to ignore. What we're doing with Euro$ data is trying to assess the health of the monetary system to see if there might indeed be "something" there. Eurodollar Universi...
Dec 28, 2023•19 min•Ep. 659
Still time left for EDU's Christmas Sale, memberships and research subscriptions. https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1 In a very important and very real sense, the Fed has already pivoted by embracing the recent and sharp decline in market interest rates. Why? In a word, insurance. Along with other crucial concerns, officials are no longer so sure the soft landing is on track. Since central bankers and Economists believe lower rates are "accommodative", they believe a pivot could help ...
Dec 27, 2023•19 min•Ep. 658
The conversation with Brent Johnson on eurodollar dominance https://funnel.eurodollar.university/dollar Christmas Sale at EDU https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1 When the dollar goes up it is one of the simplest yet most critical warning signs in all finance. Most people are told it is because of the Fed and its rate policies. The last couple years have made it appear like that's actually the case. Instead, the evidence conclusively shows the real culprit behind the dollar's movements...
Dec 22, 2023•20 min•Ep. 657
Christmas Sale at EDU https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1 Whether they want to admit it now or not, Jay Powell completely changed his tune in a matter of less than two weeks. What's more, another major central bank seems to have done the same thing and during the same two week timeframe. What the hell is going on changing all these hawks not to doves but increasingly chickens? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis CNBC The Bank of Japan just shocked markets with a policy ...
Dec 21, 2023•20 min•Ep. 656
Christmas Sale at EDU https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1 There are several reasons why suddenly the Fed has apparently accepted market rates going sharply lower. The soft landing scenario might be in greater jeopardy than recent data indicates - or it might more likely come from outside the US. Our focus here, however, is on the financial. What if conditions in the CRE market we all know is going to be a huge problem have started to come to a head? If so, that would get the FOMC's at...
Dec 20, 2023•18 min•Ep. 655
Christmas Sale at EDU https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1 What's the difference between a dollar short and a dollar shortage? The one actually comes from the needs of the other. To understand them both, you have to consider what a reserve currency really is - and what it is not- and how it is supposed to do its job. We're left considering only a range of bad options given those constraints. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU ...
Dec 19, 2023•19 min•Ep. 654
Why is the Fed pivoting? More importantly, why now? We have to consider a couple of options since central bank officials are privy to more data than we have. Not that they know what to do with it, but if there's something they see perhaps we don't yet it's worth figuring it out ahead of time. After all, with rates plunging markets are in a rush to get somewhere already. Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU https://www.eurodollar.univ...
Dec 18, 2023•19 min•Ep. 653
China's growing economy and financial turmoil may seem like a world away, but it's closer than you might think. After all, bond yields aren't just plunging around the globe solely because the US may or may not end up in recession. There are far greater and more immediate concerns elsewhere right now, starting with the Chinese. What happens there matters everywhere, too. Even Economists like Paul Krugman have had to come to terms with that. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis X (tw...
Dec 17, 2023•20 min•Ep. 652
