If you are interested, we are having a holiday sale. You can check it out here: https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1 The FOMC and its dots. Stocks took them one way, bonds another. After pounding higher-for-longer all year, suddenly officials just gave up on it like nothing. That's a bit curious already. We need to understand what lower rates really mean, both in the marketplace and why the Federal Reserve (and others) are suddenly in agreement with bonds. Eurodollar University's Money...
Dec 15, 2023•18 min•Ep. 651
Is the bond market wrong? Has it been wrong in the past? How useful are these esoteric indications and curves? Do they actually corroborate with anything in reality? On the day when the Fed meets and all eyes are on interest rates, let's go through an example where it looked like the markets got it all wrong but in reality they got every last bit right. What curves were really telling us then, and what that can tell us about today. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg: Tr...
Dec 14, 2023•19 min•Ep. 650
New multi-month low in oil, multi-year low in gasoline. Big turn into more contango for WTI futures. Energy sector completely overshadows US CPI for November even as energy prices are one key reason for the heavy disinflation in it. We need only look back to last year and wonder how we got to be in the same place all over again. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis OPEC Statement November 30, 2023 https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/7267.htm S&P Global Commodity Insight...
Dec 13, 2023•19 min•Ep. 649
What's bothering bonds? Several key issues starting with how everything about China is going wrong right now. The country just reported a sizable acceleration in deflation, both consumer and producer, on top of increasing problems in its money markets like repo. With those developing against a backdrop of failed stimulus, Moody's has chimed in with downgrades to its outlook for the country, for its biggest banks, even several crucial regions. Basically, it's a mess but one that is globally synch...
Dec 12, 2023•17 min•Ep. 648
If you want to check out the full video, visit Eurodollar University: https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page Take advantage of this exclusive offer! The bond market scares many away as it’s full of jargon and technicalities, but that ends today with Alf’s Bond Market Course. And Alf throws in a juicy 20% OFF discount just for Eurodollar University listeners! The first 50 buyers can get 20% OFF by using the discount code ''JEFF'' at checkout: Here is the link - hurry up: https://themacrocom...
Dec 11, 2023•26 min•Ep. 647
November payrolls beat expectations yet again as the cycle stretches farther. Even so, the labor market is exhibiting telltale signs of recession anyway - not that it will matter to the soft landing narrative. Industries accounting for half of all private US jobs are cutting them. Contraction is widespread already, just not widespread enough to be accepted more broadly. The way things are going, and the way markets are pricing, still just a matter of time. Eurodollar University's Money & Mac...
Dec 10, 2023•18 min•Ep. 646
Bonds are screaming bloody murder. By contrast, stocks are taking everything in stride, betting more strongly on disinflation, soft landing, a few rate cuts, every possible Goldilocks angle. Or so it would seem. What do equities really price? Not fundamentals like "liquidity" as is so often claimed nor the economy. Valuations are a fiction. History shows us where the heart of the NYSE really lies, which means there is substantial risk diverging from bonds. Eurodollar University's Money & Mac...
Dec 08, 2023•21 min•Ep. 645
Oil prices down big again. A lot more contango, too. Bond buying remains heavy and while not quite to the bull steepening it's moving in on that key point. All signs point to lower rates ahead, but isn't that a good thing? That's what we're supposed to believe... Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Ben Bernanke: Before the Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Congress April 2008 https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/bernanke20080402a.htm CNBC: Bernanke Says US Could Be Fac...
Dec 07, 2023•20 min•Ep. 644
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #fed #federalreserve More big moves in the markets including key financial numbers. It is increasingly looking like we've reached the point of non-linearity for both the monetary system as well as the real economy. While waiting for labor market confirmation in the US about what's already happened, interest rate swaps are pricing ahead and like forward rate hed...
Dec 06, 2023•19 min•Ep. 643
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #fed #federalreserve #europe Wild trading last week wasn't just about recession worries, there was quite a bit of fear pushed into curves particularly forward curves and especially those in Europe. By Friday, the moves were astounding, the sort of swings last seen clustered around March and April. First, a review of what happened and then some analysis as to wh...
Dec 05, 2023•19 min•Ep. 642
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #fed #federalreserve Recent Federal Reserve report claims at least half the country is already in recession, while another substantial portion likely is. Not only does that match softening rhetoric from policymakers, obviously there's been a radical change in markets, too. Eurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van Metre Federal Reserve Beige Book ...
Dec 04, 2023•19 min•Ep. 641
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #government #governmentdebt #debt Governments are out of control. This insanity can't go on much longer, can it? Understanding how it came to be this way, and why, that's the key to answering that question. Blackmail and myths. The problem isn't really govt debt, it's what the debt is being used to (try and) cover up. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSn...
Dec 03, 2023•20 min•Ep. 640
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #china The more the Chinese government does, the worse you know it must be. China's government is doing even more. That simple rule applies to the global economy since conditions there are a reflection of how it's going around the world. Despite expectations the country has "turned a corner", the data keeps showing just the opposite. Globally synchronized and not in a good way. Eurodollar Univ...
Dec 01, 2023•18 min•Ep. 639
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #banking #liquidity #lending #credit #europe #japan Interest rates all over the world are dropping, fast. Economic fundamentals are being repriced in global bonds - hard - now that the September effect has fully dissipated and - this is the important part - the world is more and more confirmed in its ugliness. So much so, even a former Fed hawk has to admit something has changed. Just wait unt...
Nov 30, 2023•17 min•Ep. 638
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #banking #liquidity #lending #credit #europe Banks all over the world are preparing for...something. In addition to hoarding liquidity, they're also derisking and back to hedging again. We see those among US banks and the financial system as well as in Europe where lending has especially suffered for defensive liquidity measures. Quite simply, if the world was heading for a soft landing and wh...
Nov 29, 2023•18 min•Ep. 637
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #banking #liquidity Over the last several weeks there have been concerning developments across the global banking system. Overseas data point to serious enough trouble it is causing foreign official institutions to take evasive actions. But it isn't just offshore banks; data for domestic US banks shows correlated behavior. What's behind this sudden global liquidity hoarding? Eurodollar Univers...
Nov 28, 2023•18 min•Ep. 635
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU https://www.eurodollar.university RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7
Nov 28, 2023•49 min•Ep. 636
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #europe #france #germany #japan The balance is shifting more decisively, both in the global economy and official reaction to it. More central banks are now cutting rates than hiking them. This is an especially critical development since "monetary" authorities are typically among the last to recognize, admit, then act in response to serious weakness. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve...
Nov 26, 2023•16 min•Ep. 634
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #europe #france #germany #japan Soft landing vs. hard landing isn't really hard. It all comes down to employment and the jobs market is merely the last stage in a discreet process. We have more and more information which more and more uniformly shows the world entering that last stage. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis SPG US PMI US private sector employment falls for first ti...
Nov 25, 2023•13 min•Ep. 633
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #bankcrisis #oil #gasoline Even OPEC is having trouble dealing with the growing turmoil in the oil market. Weak demand is forcing the cartel to confront very difficult choices. The reason is because recent price weakness isn't really just about energy. A whole range of financial indications are pointing once more in that wrong if familiar direction. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro An...
Nov 23, 2023•18 min•Ep. 632
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #bankcrisis #japan #collateral Bond market is getting wild. Big moves in a lot places included several many aren't paying close enough attention to. The previous selloff in LT USTs has kept focus on that one segment in this single market. Not only are there crucial warnings in the other UST curve spot, other curves are making an even bigger splash here, some you may not immediately think of. E...
Nov 22, 2023•18 min•Ep. 631
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #bankcrisis Any amateur (like me) with a passing interest in economics knows the story: the Fed controls the economy by raising or lowering interest rates. Those then affect the banking system's credit impulse which either adds to or takes away from the general economy depending on what CBers wish to accomplish. Of course, almost none of that is true. How did it get to be this way? Answering t...
Nov 21, 2023•19 min•Ep. 630
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #oil #gasoline #cisco #walmart From Cisco to Walmart, bonds to oil. Don't call it a comeback, deflation has been here the whole time. Most just forgot about it or were distracted by the combined summertime of soft landing and oil prices. The downside of the disinflation rebound and the weakness it is revealing have brought all the bad deflationary feelings back up to the surface. Eurodollar Un...
Nov 20, 2023•18 min•Ep. 629
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy The mainstream emphasis on Treasury auctions is, like so many of these things, completely misplaced. It's not just misplaced, even the worst Treasury auctions don't actually matter. Interest rates have nothing to do with how much debt the government issues. It's sad, it's not right, but that's the eurodollar world we live in. Uncle Sam has issued almost $20 trillion in debt over the last dozen years, an...
Nov 19, 2023•18 min•Ep. 628
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #retail #walmart Walmart makes a major warning. Jobless claims spike. Oil (and gas) prices aren't just crashing, the whole WTI curve just get whacked. All three of those are different angles on the same thing. What's driving bids for bonds. The deflationary recession wasn't avoided, merely delayed. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis CNBC: Walmart shares slide as retailer gives ...
Nov 17, 2023•19 min•Ep. 627
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #cpi Massive buying in global bonds sparked by the US CPI. The consumer price estimates weren't shocking or even much of a surprise, instead they confirmed a lot about economic risks as well as what has been happening in bonds of late. The selloff isn't just over; it was never what everyone said it was. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg: The Rapid Bond R...
Nov 15, 2023•19 min•Ep. 625
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #retail #china #europe Bond yields dropping again. Oil curve back in contango. Is the economy resilient? Worrisome data from around the world and right where it hurts - consumers. US. China. Europe. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg: China’s Mixed Economic Data Adds to Case for More Stimulus https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-15/china-s-economic-activity...
Nov 15, 2023•18 min•Ep. 626
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates They were all lovey-dovish last month in pausing rate hikes, then last week suddenly they're all hawks again. What changed? It wasn't the economy nor the economic data derived from it. The Fed's entire worldview is exposed when markets diverge from policymakers' preferred path. From rate hikes to the Phillips Curve, there is no basis for what central bankers do...accept to manipul...
Nov 14, 2023•18 min•Ep. 624
#stocks #interestrates #dollar #money #stockcrash The full video with Mike Green is available to Eurodollar University members and DDA subscribers. To see what memberships and research subscriptions offer, go here: https://www.eurodollar.university/memberssubscriptions Eurodollar University's guess conversations featuring Mike Green Twitter: https://twitter.com/profplum99 Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7...
Nov 13, 2023•29 min•Ep. 623
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #liquidity #china #banks China's repo market nearly freezes up at the end of October and now this. Even the biggest institutions are taking unprecedented steps. On top of well-documented real estate woes, the most recent economic stats on the Chinese economy indicate right back into deflation. With that third failed reopening and only ongoing trouble for non-bank financial firms, ...
Nov 12, 2023•19 min•Ep. 622
