#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #liquidity Are interest rates going back up, or not? According to many Economists and central bankers (same thing), they believe so because a key metric they use has turned positive after years of being negative. Technically true, while it may be math it is hardly science. Their number is pure voodoo. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis FRBNY: Treasury Term Premia h...
Nov 10, 2023•19 min•Ep. 621
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #liquidity #oil #gasoline #europe #germany #crash Oil market selloff is picking up taking gasoline prices along for the ride. The recession noises are getting louder and louder reminding us again there are no soft landings. It was pure coincidence, yet appropriate anyway Fed Chair Jay Powell addressed some his staff statisticians and cautioned them how often they are surprised by ...
Nov 09, 2023•19 min•Ep. 620
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #liquidity #oil #gasoline Oil and gasoline prices are falling fast. While that sounds like a good thing, it is anything but. The energy market is coming to grips with the renewed downturn and recession. Big moves for the WTI curve and global bonds. It's not September any longer. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis AAA US average retail gasoline prices https://gaspri...
Nov 08, 2023•18 min•Ep. 619
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #liquidity Regulators are almost feuding with hedge fund "speculators" over something called a basis trade. The former alleges it is a huge systemic risk, and they are right though for the wrong reasons. In the latter group, supporters point out funds have become necessary balance sheet warehouses for Treasuries because of a key gap. Here we'll examine what that gap really is and ...
Nov 07, 2023•19 min•Ep. 618
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #fed #federalreserve Blackrock official says stocks are in a really good place, not too Fed hot, not too economy cold. Total Goldilocks. Equity investors, however, tend to fall into these cyclical traps. It will just be weak enough to back of Jay Powell, but not too weak as to cause major damage. And if the landing does get too hard, that the Fed can always cut...
Nov 06, 2023•18 min•Ep. 617
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #fed #federalreserve The last thing standing in the way of full-blown recession in the US was the jobs market. Was. October payroll report confirms the recent renewed downturn after the disinflation rebound ended is exactly what we've feared all along. A break down of the data and market reaction. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: http...
Nov 05, 2023•17 min•Ep. 616
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #europe #fed #federalreserve The Fed indicated it may be done with rate hikes, but that's only the place to start. Is the yield curve about to come un-inverted? If so, what would that mean? The answers all depend on which direction it goes. Unfortunately for most people, they have no idea what either one means. Central banks have everyone thinking things backwa...
Nov 03, 2023•19 min•Ep. 615
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #europe #fed #federalreserve #ecb Hedge fund manager Stan Druckenmiller has gotten cold feet on the economy and the financial system, taking a huge leveraged position right at the spot on the curve we've been highlighting for months. The primary reason why is being made perfectly clear as globally synchronized data spotlight a global economy falling apart. Perh...
Nov 02, 2023•19 min•Ep. 614
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #china #yuan #purge There appears to be an honest-to-goodness (not good) purge underway across China's top leadership. This political instability appears to be driven by disagreement over the direction of the Chinese economy, currency and property sector and what to do - if anything - about it. Despite recent Western headlines blaring "China has turned a corner...
Nov 01, 2023•20 min•Ep. 612
To watch the full video, check it out at https://www.eurodollar.university Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 #dollar #interestrates #money #credit #inflation #whatismoney #brics #bitcoin #eurodollar
Nov 01, 2023•25 min•Ep. 613
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #jobs #europe #germany #yieldcurve Is the bond selloff finally over? How would we tell? One way is to look at European specifically German rates and rate behavior. Over the last half decade, bunds et al have led US Treasuries including the similar cases in 2018 not to mention last year. Not only are cash market yields trending that way, forward European money r...
Oct 31, 2023•18 min•Ep. 611
Consumer price numbers have come back during the summer. Since US GDP was up big in Q3, quite a few seem concerned this could mark the beginning of a second "inflationary" phase. But underneath the oil surge there is overwhelming evidence disinflation remains firmly entrenched. A little too firmly, according to the markets. Eurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van Metre
Oct 30, 2023•19 min•Ep. 610
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #collateral #repo #yieldcurve #income #jobs The 2-year US Treasury continues to press a fundamental case for the US economy that looks nothing like the last GDP number. Despite an official narrative for a strong labor market, the evidence instead shows serious and growing weakness where it counts the most - incomes. That major deficiency has been masked by the remnants...
Oct 29, 2023•18 min•Ep. 609
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #collateral #repo #yieldcurve US GDP surged in Q3 as the economy experiences the absolute peak of the disinflation rebound. You'd think that rates would be skyrocketing as would something like oil, both reading the big figures as confirming the need for higher rates due to unbreakable American demand. But, nope, markets basically ignored the data...for good and increas...
Oct 27, 2023•18 min•Ep. 608
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #collateral #repo #yieldcurve We've been getting major collateral warnings from all over the place recently. Financial collateral is the lifeblood of the global monetary system. That makes it incredibly important yet few have ever stopped to ponder how it all works and fits together; including central bankers. Collateral sufficiency means everything but it doesn't nece...
Oct 26, 2023•21 min•Ep. 607
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #collateral #repo #yieldcurve All of a sudden, two of the biggest bond bears on the planet have turned bearish on the economy and now bullish on bonds. The timing is suspect at least in terms of the "September effect" which is coming off. That leads Treasuries and global bonds back to fundamentals which are looking worse by the datapoint - and we got a bunch of those t...
Oct 25, 2023•19 min•Ep. 606
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #collateral #repo I've been talking about swap spreads for the last couple months, last week they make a huge move. To understand what it was and why it matters, let's talk about interest rate swaps and what their spreads to US Treasuries really tell us. What is this all about? In simple terms: the most direct window into shadow money and deflation potential. Eurodolla...
Oct 24, 2023•20 min•Ep. 605
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #collateral #repo Something big is going on under the surface in collateral. There's a global scramble underway, one that took an ugly turn this week. Here we examine some of the background changes which uncovers a puzzle. US$ repo markets haven't been using as much UST collateral as before which is beyond odd given how much more UST collateral should be available from...
Oct 22, 2023•22 min•Ep. 603
Special Announcement 🚨 For those wanting a deeper dive and actionable insights, join me for an exclusive free webinar tomorrow October 20th. Secure your spot here: https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/eurodollar #recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #collateral #mexico #peso We keep finding important inflections dating back to late July. These corroborate growing problems starting in eurodollar collateral...
Oct 20, 2023•20 min•Ep. 602
Special Announcement 🚨 For those wanting a deeper dive and actionable insights, join me for an exclusive webinar on October 20th. Secure your spot here: https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/eurodollar #recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #collateral #china #yuan The Chinese government is trying to the sell the world on its attempt at stabilizing China's economy. Of course, it easily finds willing buyers ...
Oct 19, 2023•20 min•Ep. 601
Special Announcement 🚨 For those wanting a deeper dive and actionable insights, join me for an exclusive webinar on October 20th. Secure your spot here: https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/eurodollar #recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #collateral Eurodollar cycles are periods when crucial financial indications align in either one direction or the other. On the one side, it's reflation and better condi...
Oct 18, 2023•22 min•Ep. 600
Special Announcement 🚨 For those wanting a deeper dive and actionable insights, join me for an exclusive webinar on October 20th. Secure your spot here: https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/eurodollar #recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #jpmorgan JP Morgan's CEO Jamie Dimon says to prepare for higher interest rates. JP Morgan's asset management division says to prepare for lower interest rates. What? Tr...
Oct 17, 2023•18 min•Ep. 599
Special Announcement 🚨 For those wanting a deeper dive and actionable insights, join me for an exclusive webinar on October 20th. Secure your spot here: https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/eurodollar #recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #china #cny Latest data from China on lending and trade show Beijing's efforts at creating stability in currency, banking, and economy are not working. Loan growth was e...
Oct 16, 2023•21 min•Ep. 598
Special Announcement 🚨 For those wanting a deeper dive and actionable insights, join me for an exclusive webinar on October 20th. Secure your spot here: https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/eurodollar #recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar Gasoline prices have plunged over the last two weeks, after having been moving lower since mid-August. That in itself is cause for concern though more so given how gas i...
Oct 15, 2023•18 min•Ep. 597
Special Announcement 🚨 For those wanting a deeper dive and actionable insights, join me for an exclusive webinar on October 20th. Secure your spot here: https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/eurodollar What if we found ourselves in a depression? What if that isn’t something new? Rate of change in economy goes down, rate of change in politics goes way up. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Alf Landon Acceptance Speech https://www.kshs.org/kansapedia/alfred-landon-s-acceptance-spee...
Oct 15, 2023•21 min•Ep. 596
Our Free Webinar is almost full, Secure your spot now: https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/eurodollar #recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #yuan #cny #china China is back! Reopening back up after its Golden Week with more plans to "support" the economy. At least according to the latest likely officially-approved rumors. Yet, like earlier in the summer, no one is buying them. Quite the contrary, the more ...
Oct 12, 2023•19 min•Ep. 595
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar Everyone wants to know why LT rates are going higher. Is it the Fed? Soft landing? Perhaps inflation with oil? Market curves have had the answer this entire time, but the selloff at first seems to complicate the matter. With data we have, we can start eliminating possibilities. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Chair Powell Press Conference Transcript;...
Oct 11, 2023•21 min•Ep. 594
Our Free Webinar is almost full, Secure your spot now: https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/eurodollar #recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #oil #israel #collateral Now geopolitics threatens to do more than further destabilize rebalancing crude oil markets. But the risks are greater and more immediate than the price of crude. Collateral conditions over the past several years have been tied to energy, and ...
Oct 10, 2023•19 min•Ep. 593
Are we watching the "right" spot on the yield curve? It's understandable why everyone would be fixated on the 10-year benchmark or the long bond. However, all the reasons you've heard for why those have been sold would go double for the 2-year note. Yet, that one hasn't budged, not really. Something else is going on in curves - not just USTs. Eurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van Metre
Oct 09, 2023•18 min•Ep. 592
Our Free Webinar is almost full, Secure your spot now: https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/eurodollar #recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #employment #unemployment #jobs The BLS gave us another finger with a blowout headline jobs report. Analyzing what that's really about and more importantly what the rest of the payroll report had in it. The US labor market is in a serious pickle now. Eurodollar Univer...
Oct 08, 2023•18 min•Ep. 591
