#interestrates #inflation #deflation #recession #inversion #ratehikes A slew of Wall Street types are getting impatient - and cold feet - waiting for a recession they're not sure is happening. The market is sure causing them to wonder if the market is just wrong with its massive inversion. No, this time is never different. Eurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van Metre If Powell Wants Higher Rates, He Should Ask Why He's Not Getting Them https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2...
Jul 24, 2023•20 min•Ep. 529
#dollar #brics #gold #currency #money #eurodollar Next month, the BRICS summit is going to introduce a new common currency and one backed by gold. Or is it? Before it even begins, the group seems like it will have to proceed without the I and the S. Or any monetary sense. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis The Eurodollar Standard Isn't Going Anywhere Anytime Soon https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2023/06/02/the_eurodollar_standard_isnt_going_anywhere_anytime_soon_903165.h...
Jul 23, 2023•24 min•Ep. 528
#recession #inflation #deflation #taiwan #semiconductor #apple Taiwan Semiconductor reported pretty awful results blaming the global macroeconomic environment, specifically singling out inventory bloat as well as China's failed reopening. The effects aren't being limited to that side of the Pacific; the spillover is already affecting projects in the United States. We aren't supposed to say "recession" yet that's what we keep finding in big ways and small. Eurodollar University's Money & Macr...
Jul 21, 2023•18 min•Ep. 527
#recession #china #germany #trade #export #deflation #bonds Germany reported trade data exposing the resilient economy fallacy as a product of nothing more than the temporary nominal price illusion. Volumes are down huge and as values fall there's no more cushion from lack of activity. This isn't about Germany so much, either, as we can see in trade w/the German's biggest customers: China and the US of A. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg: ECB Hawk Klaas Knot Pushes Ba...
Jul 20, 2023•18 min•Ep. 526
#recession #deflation #inflation #retailsales #industrial #consumer US Industrial Production fell for the second month in a row, dropping the Fed's index below the same period a year ago. A negative yearly change in IP has accompanied all 18 of the economic contractions in the NBER's library. Only six times in over a century has IP been negative on an annual basis without any full-scale recession. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg: Stocks Climb After Yellen Eases Reces...
Jul 19, 2023•19 min•Ep. 525
#china #recession #inflation #deflation #industrial #spending #money China's GDP report as well as its monthly statistics confirm first reopening isn't just completely dead, instead the entire economy is already rolling over and heading toward more weakness. The global recession combined with China's own problems - which weren't really about the pandemic - have left the Chinese exposed to a dangerous downside and no lockdowns to blame this time. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis...
Jul 18, 2023•19 min•Ep. 524
#recession #inflation #deflation #globaltrade #india #credit #bank India reported a huge drop in exports, one of its worst on record. A major US food producer says demand has worsened to the point some of its brands are having to cut prices. American banks are now scaling back certain loans. What do all these have in common? US consumers and the deflationary recession. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Conagra Earnings Report Transcript https://finance.yahoo.com/news/conagra-bra...
Jul 17, 2023•18 min•Ep. 523
#recession #inflation #deflation #taxes #employment #unemployment Individual income tax payments to Uncle Sam are running almost half a trillion (with a "T") behind same months in FY 2022. Withholdings are way off and claimed refunds are way up. At the same time, the June CPI showed broad-based disinflation and a little deflation. These two results aren't unrelated. Eurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van Metre Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.un...
Jul 16, 2023•18 min•Ep. 522
Great Inflation 2, or soft landing? Those are the only two choices we're given for #inflation #deflation #recession when neither of those was ever likely. The reasons why the soft landing isn't happening and another Great Inflation simply can't are easily found in historical comparisons. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg: El-Erian Says Soft-Landing Narrative Gains Steam, Don’t Fight It https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-14/el-erian-says-soft-landing-narrat...
Jul 15, 2023•18 min•Ep. 521
The Chinese aren't taking their #eurodollar #dollar woes weakening yuan lying down #recession. But they aren't doing a whole lot meaningful about it, either. Why and why not? That's the (euro)dollar conundrum. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis PBOC: Notice of the People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Financial Supervision on Extending the Deadline of Relevant Policies for Financial Support to the Steady and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market http://ww...
Jul 13, 2023•19 min•Ep. 520
#Consumer #spending is down already and now we're getting data which shows by how much, #recession. There's no #inflation here. Disney theme parks are empty, consumer #credit is actually contracting, the bad news is just getting started. Steve Van Metre nailed it when he pointed out services and vacation weakness on this channel just a couple months ago. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis WSJ: Disney World Hasn’t Felt This Empty in Years https://www.wsj.com/articles/disney-world-...
Jul 12, 2023•18 min•Ep. 519
China reported some of the worst #inflation consumer and producer price estimates in its modern history, within range of the worst parts of 2009. Such damaging #deflation shows #globalrecession #recession getting worse, and worse for everyone outside China it is becoming more synchronized. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Reuters: UPDATE 1-Goldman Sachs raises 2023 China GDP growth forecast to 6% https://www.reuters.com/article/china-economy-comment/update-1-goldman-sachs-raise...
Jul 11, 2023•18 min•Ep. 518
It's the greatest story no one wants to tell. Money printing. Inflation. Deflation. Interest rates. Crash. The Fed. What is QT? What was QE really? They're all lies and you don't have to take my word for it. I've got all the numbers, their math, and the truth. Eurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van Metre Forbes Advisor: Quantitative Tightening (QT) Explained https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/what-is-quantitative-tightening/ BIS Working Papers No 1105 The demand for govern...
Jul 10, 2023•18 min•Ep. 517
Saudi Arabia extended its #oil production cuts for another month. Given what the Japanese reported for #income, not hard to see why #recession Plus, US bank #credit crunch accelerated at the end of June when #lending fell further and cash cushions rose. #globalrecession Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: https://b...
Jul 09, 2023•19 min•Ep. 516
June #payrolls #jobs data stumbled badly. Worse, previous months were revised a lot lower erasing prior acceleration. The #unemployment rate went lower, though that was the lone bright spot (which you shouldn't consider as one). US #recession is more than fully on track which raises alarms given how recessions usually work in labor markets. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Remarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke At the Meetings of the American Economic Association, San Diego, Calif...
Jul 08, 2023•18 min•Ep. 515
Central banks want rates to go up but markets have largely resisted. Upping the ante, the FOMC admits there's going to be a recession but claims it will raise its rates anyway. As a result, this pushes the Fed pivot somewhat further into the future by raising the bar for any rate cuts. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg: Bets on ‘Year of the Bond’ Persist in Face of Still-Hawkish Fed https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-05/year-of-the-bond-loses-luster-as-rob...
Jul 07, 2023•19 min•Ep. 514
Central banks have said inflation risks are all in core price numbers. Here's yet another core instead deeply in deflation, so bad it fell at a rate we haven't seen since the worst part of the Great Recession. And though it may "only" be a producer price figure, history conclusively shows that it - not core CPIs - is the one to follow. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com...
Jul 06, 2023•18 min•Ep. 513
The manufacturing recession has reached its critical point where producers have to decide to keep workers or start laying them off. Unemployment is now rising because the second half economic rebound just isn't happening. Instead, work is disappearing as new sales fail to materialize forcing companies worldwide to make their choice. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis S&P Global US Manu https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/347746d7505243f8b84ca01657a4410a JPM ...
Jul 04, 2023•18 min•Ep. 512
Federal bank regulators are issuing guidance to banks to do everything they can potentially limit any credit losses. With recession bearing down and loan portfolios exhibiting initial signs of major stress, authorities are clearly seeking to limit the public fallout in another can-kicking scheme. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealCle...
Jul 03, 2023•19 min•Ep. 511
Despite stubborn core inflation rates in the US and Europe, each economy is exhibiting more and more definite signs of recession and deflation. Unemployment is up in Europe's biggest economies and US consumer spending has sunk. Core consumer price rates never represent resilient labor markets. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearM...
Jul 02, 2023•19 min•Ep. 510
While Q1 GDP was revised higher for the US, that's looking back at what is now ancient history. Looking ahead at Q2 and beyond, not just recession perhaps worse in huge part because of what's being uncovered behind the growing credit crunch. The Fed's stress test uncovered substantial future risks. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Federal Reserve Stress Test Results https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/bcreg20230628a.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/publica...
Jun 30, 2023•19 min•Ep. 509
The deflation and banking crisis which really began last fall that has now become a full-blown credit crunch and recession was far more about collateral shortages than anything else. It sure wasn't rate hikes. Not only have yield curves and interest rates told the truth, one central banker in Europe admits to it, too. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Money Market Contact Group meeting https://www.ecb.eu...
Jun 29, 2023•19 min•Ep. 508
China's yuan currency has been incredibly weak to the point authorities in Beijing have been unable to successfully intervene against the dollar. It spells worldwide trouble given falling CNY is a dependable global recession and crisis signal. The worse it becomes for the Chinese, the more deflation we should expect elsewhere. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://...
Jun 28, 2023•19 min•Ep. 507
The global economy is accelerating to the downside into more than just a short, shallow recession. It is instead sped along in the deflationary direction by the fallout from the March banking crisis which continues to spread all over the world. Credit crunch. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg: The World’s Empty Office Buildings Have Become a Debt Time Bomb https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-23/commercial-real-estate-reset-is-causing-distress-from-san-franc...
Jun 27, 2023•19 min•Ep. 506
Economic conditions have worsened recently indicating the economy shifting gears from shallow downturn to full-blown recession. With new sales sinking, companies all over are ready to face their decision-point on workers and layoffs. Eurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van Metre Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 THE EPISODES...
Jun 26, 2023•19 min•Ep. 505
The global economy has turned a corner, and not in a good (or inflation) way. Widespread ugly data and market positioning strongly suggest the deflationary recession is accelerating to the downside. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis HCOB Flash Eurozone PMI https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/6a9a73ef2b4d449eb8a8d9b827cb2070 S&P Global Flash US Composite PMI https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/6e8efbfbddde43f29eb12c5193939625 Twitter: https...
Jun 25, 2023•19 min•Ep. 504
Three more global central banks hiked interest rates despite even more determined recession signals here and abroad. Here we see just why they continue to act as if inflation is the world's biggest threat even though data and markets go completely the other way. Now labor, too. Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators for June 2023 https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators Liberty Street Economics: The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast— June 2023 https://libertystreetecono...
Jun 23, 2023•19 min•Ep. 503
#China yuan keeps plummeting to new lows as #deflation and #recession collide in growing global #dollar shortage. Yet, Jay Powell tells Congress he's more worried about #inflation even though this key #money signal is one among many against it. A recent paper by Ben Bernanke actually describes the mainstream problem - in the process inadvertently explaining why Powell is so off. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Testimony Jerome Powell: Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the C...
Jun 22, 2023•19 min•Ep. 502
Central banks want #interestrates to go up if only to convince you they're fighting #inflation, when #deflation is keeping a lid on those and even pushing some market #yields lower. One that is moving down is a big one worth paying attention to. Contrary to popular perception, low rates are not easy money and conditions. Just ask Ben Bernanke. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinside...
Jun 21, 2023•19 min•Ep. 501
China's government failed to deliver concrete "stimulus" plans because authorities are conflicted. In the absence of any good ideas for combatting deflationary recession, they'll issue more rate cuts that never work hoping beyond hope something clicks. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis SCMP: China’s State Council fans stimulus hopes with economic plan for faltering growth https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3224445/chinas-state-council-fans-stimulus-hopes-economic...
Jun 20, 2023•19 min•Ep. 500
