#interestrates hikers and #centralbank hawks ignore failed #banks in favor of wages, Phillips Curve, and #inflation expectations. They believe the #economy has gone retro and we're stuck in 1978 when more and more each day looks too much like 2008. Eurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van Metre Speech by Governor Christopher J. Waller https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20230616a.htm Bloomberg: Fed’s Barkin Comfortable Doing More to Slow Resilient US Economy htt...
Jun 19, 2023•18 min•Ep. 499
Following the alarming data from China, New Zealand confirms it is has succumbed to #recession while Australia's yield curve inverted for first time since 2008. Central banks continue to focus on #inflation because of labor data that is wildly overstating economic strength. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: https...
Jun 18, 2023•19 min•Ep. 498
The #federalreserve is pausing while the ECB is aggressively hiking #interestrates all at the same time the People's Bank of #china is cutting theirs. What is going on with the global #economy? The answer is #recession and #deflation though those haven't yet knocked #inflation down enough for some of these central bankers. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ECB: Monetary policy decisions https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2023/html/ecb.mp230615~d34cddb4c6.en.html The spokesp...
Jun 16, 2023•18 min•Ep. 497
The #FOMC #federalreserve decided against another #ratehike today, instead choosing not to choose. Some officials insist #inflation is the biggest risk but apparently not enough to act right now. Instead, #recession and #bank problems still weigh enough to force this nonsense of a "hawkish pause" as a temporary compromise. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg: There’s More Trouble Coming for Regional Banks https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-10/apollo-spotted-...
Jun 15, 2023•18 min•Ep. 496
#Deflation #recession shows up in both the US #CPI and #China's credit system during the same month. This isn't random coincidence, rather the effects of the global downturn speeding up and taking over more geographic and economic spaces. It's already enough to get Beijing worried, though not yet enough to do the same in DC. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg: China Credit Growth Beats Expectations Amid Investment Push https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-11/...
Jun 14, 2023•19 min•Ep. 495
Are #stocks a useful indicator of #recession? How about #depression? If they were, they can't explain how there wasn't a Great Depression 2 in the late 80s. After all, there were hundreds of #bank failures especially after the Crash of '87. Yet, we remember that period of time fondly as the Great "Moderation", a prolonged age of unrivaled global prosperity. The differences btw the 80s and 30s tell us a lot about our chances in the 20s. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis FOMC Conf...
Jun 13, 2023•20 min•Ep. 494
Crisis borrowing at the Fed's emergency BTFP surged this week to a new high as #bankingcrisis grows critical. We're seeing more and more signs of serious #creditcrunch which, if it continues like this, won't take long to imperil more markets and the general #economy. #recession Eurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van Metre Bloomberg: Ackman-Backed Builder Says 48 Lenders Rejected Apartment Project https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-08/real-estate-builder-backed-by-ac...
Jun 12, 2023•19 min•Ep. 493
Both producer and consumer prices in #china fell again in the month of May as global #recession continues to hammer the Chinese economy. Though central banks see only #inflation risks, the #deflationary economy is no longer a risk. This one goes a long way toward confirming it. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg: China Central Bank Governor Reiterates Stable Policy Stance https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-09/china-s-central-bank-governor-reiterates-stable-...
Jun 11, 2023•19 min•Ep. 492
The global #dollar system is at its weakest point at these specific calendar spots, most susceptible to #collateral problems causing #deflation in #money. With the #bank crisis still raging under the surface, we're going to take a deeper look inside the shadows to see if we can find some answers here. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis OFR: Why Is So Much Repo Not Centrally Cleared? https://www.financialresearch.gov/briefs/files/OFRBrief_23-01_Why-Is-So-Much-Repo-Not-Centrally-Cl...
Jun 09, 2023•20 min•Ep. 491
Central banks in Australia and Canada ended their short #ratehikes #interestrates pause, ignoring the global #recession risks China just reminded everyone about for their own #inflation biases. History (not to mention markets) caution against prematurely shifting when faced with such a high level of uncertainty. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis World Bank Global Economic Prospects https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects RBA Statement by Philip Lowe, G...
Jun 08, 2023•19 min•Ep. 490
We can actually see #deflation right now in the form of falling producer prices. Europe reported a record drop in its PPI which has major implications starting with #recession and what this means for #inflation. Declining oil and producer prices today are linked to consumer prices and the economy tomorrow. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Do Producer Prices Lead Consumer Prices? https://www.kansascityfed.org/documents/1005/1995-Do%20Producer%20Prices%20Lead%20Consumer%20Prices%...
Jun 07, 2023•19 min•Ep. 489
Deflation and recession are everywhere. Almost. Of the few holdouts, only some of the US labor data starting with the least serious of the accounts. Apart from it, markets and macro are almost completely in sync. The ambiguity of previous months is melting away in favor of clarity. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essay...
Jun 07, 2023•18 min•Ep. 484
Saudis try for #oilpricehike but #oil runs instead into unmovable #recession. The real #economy continues to weaken which means demand is dominating market factors, not supply. Confirming the oil market's view of the situation, key US services data tumbles. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis CNBC: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/05/opec-oil-prices-pop-after-saudi-arabia-pledges-production-cuts.html Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https:/...
Jun 06, 2023•18 min•Ep. 488
#realestate and property #assetbubble across the world is going bust risking a renewed #bankcrisis plus #recession the US. The situation in #China with developers rather than turning around is causing the government to repeat its failed strategies. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg: China Mulls New Property Support Package to Boost Economy https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-02/china-mulls-new-property-market-support-package-to-boost-economy#xj4y7vzkg Bloom...
Jun 05, 2023•19 min•Ep. 487
Payroll report (CES) shows steady growth in top-line jobs though anything but everywhere else. Hours are being outright cut while employment (CPS) was down big with economic recession ramping up. Even the unemployment rate jumped for once. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 THE EPISODES YouT...
Jun 04, 2023•18 min•Ep. 486
Inflation pressures are disappearing as deflation and recession conditions continue to take over. The Federal Reserve won't be able to keep up its interest rate stance for very long. The 5-year TIPS breakeven was once the epitome of the "inflation" panic, swelling to record highs during March 2022's shock crisis. And while the Fed continues to see inflation everywhere, that same market measure just hit a new multi-year low. Worse, it did so while more and more points to the fact time's up on def...
Jun 02, 2023•19 min•Ep. 485
Oil can't catch a sustained bid, too easily falling right back into contango. With the US debt ceiling agreement (in principle), rates markets worldwide can now go back to their regularly scheduled alarms. And they have. European banking data shows why that is as contagion spreads across loan books. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis CNBC: Credit Suisse weighs capital hike, possibility of exiting U.S. market https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/22/credit-suisse-weighs-capital-hike-looks-...
May 31, 2023•18 min•Ep. 483
Everyone loves GDP including the government agency which calculates it. Even so, GDI has been a more useful signal for cyclical changes, particularly peaks. Last week's GDP update included the first look at current GDI estimates. These don't leave any room for interpretation or imagination. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMark...
May 30, 2023•19 min•Ep. 482
Structural inflation or something else. To mainstream Economists, consumer prices are being driven by structural forces such as demographics, oil production, and, of course, government. As Ronald Coase once said, torture the data long enough and it will confess. Eurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van Metre Ronald Coase: Volume Title: Economic Research: Retrospect and Prospect, Volume 3, Policy Issues and Research Opportunities in Industrial Organization https://www.nber.org/syst...
May 29, 2023•19 min•Ep. 481
Trying to figure out the state of the economy and monetary system by looking backward through consumer price estimates is, well, backward. To understand where we're going, we have to look forward by breaking down the eurodollar details, decoding the data and its signals. Where money is moving...and where it isn't. Shedding some light into the dark eurodollar shadows. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis DTCC GCF Repo https://www.dtcc.com/clearing-services/ficc-gov/gcf-repo Twitter:...
May 28, 2023•20 min•Ep. 480
German GDP revisions show the country already mired in recession despite the government's assurances there wouldn't be one. And to reemphasize the global nature of the deflationary setback, US corporate profits tanked in the first quarter right when American hiring and wages was hoped to be enough for the soft landing. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg: Scholz Sees Germany Riding Out War in Ukraine Without Recession https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-01-17/ge...
May 26, 2023•19 min•Ep. 479
The deflationary wave sweeping the global system isn't one thing or another, it is becoming all the things everywhere. That's what makes such a compelling case for the worst case, a deflationary recession. Not just US banks or US markets, here we examine European markets and forward rates and what those mean. SPOILER: the same things. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress; Chairman Jerome H. Powell; July 17, 2018 https://www.federalr...
May 25, 2023•18 min•Ep. 478
Saudi Arabia's oil minister implicitly threatened more action from OPEC due to "low" prices and growing short positions betting against supply constraints. Demand is increasingly dire and not just for energy. Deflationary signals are growing in other commodities as well as a whole bunch of economic data, too. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Telegraph (India): Reserve Bank of India intervenes strongly to stop rupee slide without targeting any level https://www.telegraphindia.co...
May 24, 2023•17 min•Ep. 477
The LIBOR scandal won't go away because it hasn't been properly identified. Govts and officials have alleged it was banks who misbehaved when all along it may have been authorities. Why did they get rid of LIBOR? Because it exposed the real corruption in the monetary world. The EURODOLLAR's world. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis BBC: Interest rate 'rigging' evidence 'covered up' by banks https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65635243 RCM: New Urgency In the Marketplace Lacks Meani...
May 23, 2023•19 min•Ep. 476
Treasury Secretary Yellen held talks with major Wall Street CEOs and bank advisors, raising the subject of further bank mergers. Though that part of the discussion wasn't in the official readout, it was reported anyway and something Yellen had already said in public just a little while ago. There is every reason to believe there is more big trouble ahead. Govt/Wall Street discussions of "mergers" is just more confirmation. Eurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van Metre Reuters: Ye...
May 22, 2023•19 min•Ep. 475
Everyone remotely familiar with banking over the last few years knows there's systemic risk and it starts with commercial real estate (CRE). The Fed's very own Financial Stability Report for May 2023 exposes the details behind the scenes. With CRE prices falling for the first time in over a decade, valuations will eventually have to be adjusted and then all bets are off. Literally. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis FOMC Transcript: Oct 2008 call https://www.federalreserve.gov/mo...
May 21, 2023•19 min•Ep. 474
WTI futures curve moved further in contango, now joined by another major milestone for the dollar bull-ying its way across Asia. China's yuan has slumped substantially, today falling well below 7 to the dollar. CNY wasn't the only one caught up in the goring, though. The dollar bull's "sudden" return is a particularly bad omen especially now. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Remarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke Before the National Economists Club, Washington, D.C. https://www.fe...
May 19, 2023•18 min•Ep. 473
The expression "slowly at first, then all at once" can describe an economy's descent into nasty recession. There are warning signs all over starting with WTI back in contango. Major retailers have nothing good to say about the state of their customers. US total sales are already declining and in nominal terms. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis AP: Home Depot sees first annual sales decline in more than a decade as housing streak ebbs, rates jump https://apnews.com/article/home-d...
May 18, 2023•19 min•Ep. 472
China's reopening is dead and buried. The country's government reported truly sobering economic data that proved beyond any doubt there is nothing left to it. Worse, much of that same data showed the global economy is in big trouble as fallout from events over the last few months are, unfortunately, already producing results. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg: China Leaders Surprised by Pace of Economy’s Rebound https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-01/china-...
May 17, 2023•18 min•Ep. 471
Forward rates and forward rate spreads have substantially deteriorated since March. They were already more inverted than at any time in 2007 leading up to 2008. How could they be so much worse in 2023? You have to understand what forward rate spreads are telling us and why. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis FOMC Transcript; June 2007 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20070628meeting.pdf Ben Bernanke Congress Testimony; March 2007 https://www.federalreserve....
May 16, 2023•19 min•Ep. 470
