Consumer confidence fell sharply in two recent surveys, as recession fears and banking woes deepen rather than fade. Small businesses facing the same pressures are beginning to crack, too, as the initial stages of contraction take shape. Eurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van Metre Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 THE EPIS...
May 15, 2023•19 min•Ep. 469
Because so many of us focus so much on US banks, and US banks are making it easy to do this, it's also easy to lose sight of the fact this crisis is far from limited to the United States and a few of its banks. There are global elements at work. One we can see emerging in Sweden, and another in China we've been watching for a long time. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.co...
May 14, 2023•18 min•Ep. 468
As expected, not only is another bank in danger of failing, they're blaming short sellers for it. Jamie Dimon made the ridiculous comments today as major market swings leave little doubt where all this is going. And if that wasn't enough, more big data to corroborate. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit...
May 12, 2023•19 min•Ep. 467
Deflationary money leads to a deflationary economy which has to be disinflationary first. We keep getting "anomalies" in the monetary system (interest rate swaps and collateral) including another one this week. April's CPI already shows disinflation and more creeping into the US economy - particularly services. The two of these together will lead to falling CPIs...and more. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.unive...
May 11, 2023•19 min•Ep. 466
The Chinese reported renewed declines for their imports, including a big one in crude oil. When OPEC announced production cuts, they could see China wasn't living up to reopening hype and the latest data absolutely confirms it (while driving a stake in the narrative). Not only are steelmakers there urging production cuts, too, US bank credit is about to become lights out if only to make things even worse. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_...
May 10, 2023•18 min•Ep. 465
Bad steepening in global curves from Treasuries to German bunds even French Obligations assimilables du Trésor (OATs). Regional banks have gotten all the attention though European banks have been experiencing serious deposit (therefore wholesale) trouble for longer. And maybe worse, too. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ECB M3 Press Release https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/stats/md/html/ecb.md2303~5a86c581c4.en.html Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.euro...
May 09, 2023•18 min•Ep. 464
It was not a good week for long oil traders or those betting on the economy and inflation. Prices were down huge Monday and Tuesday last week before suffering a flash crash Wednesday/Thursday. These together implicate bad liquidity as much as bad economy. As does the utter and worrisome collapse in Germany's goods sectors. Eurodollar University's Weekly Conversation w/Steve Van Metre Bloomberg: Oil’s Dramatic Open Leaves Traders Puzzled After WTI Crashes https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2...
May 08, 2023•18 min•Ep. 463
The April payroll report came out and the topline figure was far from terrible. Some might say it was pretty darn good. As usual, it is the rest of the employment numbers that tell the story. Whatever the payroll figure, there aren't any hours. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 THE EPISODES...
May 07, 2023•18 min•Ep. 462
Both the Fed and ECB hiked rates this week (in successive days), each claiming inflation is still their greatest threat. German and Treasury markets didn't care one bit, altogether pricing unmistakable deflationary dangers that aren't in the future. They're happening right now. As one consequence, central banks are now priced to turn around into cuts by mid-summer. Maybe even late spring. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis FRB Chair Jay Powell May 2023 Press Conference https://ww...
May 05, 2023•18 min•Ep. 461
Who cares about the Fed's (final) rate hike? You shouldn't. While chasing inflation risks that don't exist, instead markets are hedged and priced for serious deflation ahead. All the signs, all the history and basic economics conclusively point toward worse ahead. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bill Gross: Bull Market in Bonds Is Over https://www.wsj.com/articles/BL-MBB-1297 Minutes FOMC Meeting July-Aug 2018 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20180801.h...
May 04, 2023•19 min•Ep. 460
Despite some relative calm yesterday after First Republic's failure, today was anything but as huge hedging in markets along with more turmoil in the broader banking sector. Bad economic data around the world reinforces the dangers of the 2008-style that continues to unfold right in front of us. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bberg: First Republic’s Demise Fails to Mark the All-Clear on Banks https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-01/first-republic-leaves-bank-world-...
May 03, 2023•19 min•Ep. 459
Deflationary fallout has become visible and almost unmistakable in the one place which was supposed to save us from that very outcome. China's economy is getting weaker and even stock market investors are getting out and running for the exits. Not just China, but already spilling over to its closer partners. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis China NBS Press Release http://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/sjjd/202304/t20230429_1939137.html Darkening Gloom in Chinese Stocks Puzzles Wall Street...
May 02, 2023•18 min•Ep. 458
Another major US bank failed - First Republic - and the markets barely moved because this is all in the context of deflationary money. If so, we know where this is going. For interest rates and the overall economy. Eurodollar University's Weekly Conversations w/Steve Van Metre Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 THE EPISODES YouTube: https://...
May 01, 2023•19 min•Ep. 457
First Republic finally fails and on the same day the Fed's report on SVB is released. It says SVB was on outlier, a loner. But that only raises more questions given what happened to First Republic (or Credit Suisse). The only place to find answers is from within the monetary system itself. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Review of the Federal Reserve’s Supervision and Regulation of Silicon Valley Bank https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/svb-review-20230428.pdf Tw...
Apr 30, 2023•19 min•Ep. 456
Both the yield curve's 3-month/10-year spread and the Fed's near term forward spread have nose-dived in April. The former by far at a record extreme (for modern USTs), the latter worst since the early 80s. You have to start from these in order to understand current data, the current situation, as well as what the official story will be about both. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsin...
Apr 28, 2023•18 min•Ep. 455
Bank of England's Chief Economist tells Columbia University podcast that people need to accept that they're poorer and worse off, and to stop trying to do anything about it because they're getting in the way of central bankers attempting to fix a mess they can't seem to fix. While they're afraid of a wage-price spiral there's no evidence they should be afraid of, the costs of the past few years are coming due in a much worse way. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Columbia Law Sc...
Apr 27, 2023•18 min•Ep. 454
Major buying the curves has pushed them back down to and even below the worst points since mid-March. Markets have never been more certain about what's coming and why. Since eurodollar futures are no more, we'll have to depend on 3-month SOFR futures from here on. And right here they're beyond pessimistic. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg: Hedge Funds Place Biggest Ever Short on Benchmark Treasuries https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-24/hedge-funds-place-...
Apr 26, 2023•18 min•Ep. 453
The transmission from deflationary money to a deflationary economy was always going to come from a credit crunch. Updated data shows the banking system remains in a critical state which means taking proactive steps to freeze their collective activities in broad fashion. So much, even the mainstream media is reporting the gory details. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis A Corporate Credit Crunch Is Just Getting Started https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-corporate-credit-crunc...
Apr 25, 2023•20 min•Ep. 452
According to one source, tourism/attendance at Disney's main theme park in Orlando already dropped off a cliff. Hardly a surprise, the primary risk to the global economy - not just US - isn't inflation but the deflationary money the banking crisis revealed to the public spilling over and causing major downside consequences. Slowly, at first. Eurodollar University's Weekly Conversation w/Steve Van Metre Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.mark...
Apr 24, 2023•19 min•Ep. 451
Something is going on with bills. There's a debt ceiling deadline looming. Two must be related, says the mainstream, otherwise the former would mean something bad and Jay Powell said nothing bad could happen - more than the other stuff that already did, of course. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Quantitative Easing: How Well Does This Tool Work? https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/third-quarter-2017/quantitative-easing-how-well-does-this-tool-work Twitte...
Apr 23, 2023•20 min•Ep. 450
Four-week bill yield plummeted by around 60 bps at one point in today's trading. Serious monetary pressures are still there, continue to get worse even a month after the mid-March banking crisis and several weeks after officials declared it over with. They want to go back to focusing on inflation that doesn't exist for the deflation which is really starting to rampage. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university...
Apr 21, 2023•20 min•Ep. 449
Like Warren Buffett last week, this week Elon Musk issues grave warning about health of global banks. But why? Is it inflation run amok, or the world paying in deflation for the past few years of massive distortions? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Elon Musk Interview w/Tucker Carlson https://www.foxnews.com/video/6325259104112 Q1 2023 J B Hunt Transport Services Inc Earnings Call https://finance.yahoo.com/news/q1-2023-j-b-hunt-114817141.html Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffS...
Apr 20, 2023•18 min•Ep. 448
Brazil's President Lula traveled to Shanghai to finalize bilateral engagement bypassing the US dollar. This is not de-dollarization, rather an acknowledgement the eurodollar system is in a crisis. And that means the dollar goes up, probably way up, wrecking everything along the way. Can't blame Brazil (or China) for trying to dodge it. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg: Hedge Funds Go All In on Dollar, First Time in Over a Year https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2...
Apr 19, 2023•18 min•Ep. 447
Where are we? Is there still a crisis? Is it over(blown)? The "fear ratio" helps sort out signal from so much noise. Since it sits at the intersection of money, finance, and especially real economy, it's determination shouldn't be taken so lightly. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 THE EPIS...
Apr 18, 2023•19 min•Ep. 446
The hawks are back at the Fed doing what Fed hawks always do. Beginning with overestimating their own tools, they then overestimate the resilience of the banking system before also overestimating how great the economy is because of the unemployment rate. Never mind they didn't see any of this coming, they assure you there's nothing else coming. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Financial Stabilization and Macroeconomic Stabilization: Two Tools for Two Problems Governor Christoph...
Apr 17, 2023•19 min•Ep. 445
This week was a wild one, including how during it legendary investor Warren Buffett said he was selling bank stocks because there were more failures still to come. While depositors won't see any losses, that doesn't mean there won't be any. Nor fallout from it, as the latest data from markets and macro shows. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShiel...
Apr 16, 2023•20 min•Ep. 444
First they said it was a growth scare. They told us to ignore inversions. Then they pointed to the unemployment rate and said there's no way we could have a recession. Now they admit there will be a recession but also how there's a chance for worse. In other words, they're following market curves like we said they would and have finally arrived just one step short of inevitable. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar....
Apr 14, 2023•19 min•Ep. 443
Just as the interest rate swap market had indicated, big collateral scarcity as 4w Tbill rates yesterday plummeted. Also, Japanese bills for more confirmation. Add those to the US CPI results for March and together they more than equal the end of 'inflation'. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Austan D. Goolsbee, president and chief executive officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, on April 11, 2023, at the Economic Club of Chicago Forum Luncheon, in Chicago, IL. https://www.ch...
Apr 13, 2023•19 min•Ep. 442
Alarming compression of interest rate swap spreads indicate more systemic issues in global balance sheet capacities and collateral, too. Also, the IMF reported on its World Economic Outlook where it very plainly reveals just how worried authorities have become. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis IMF WEO April 2023 https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2023/April/English/text.ashx FT: IMF warns of ‘hard landing’ for global economy if inflation persists https://www.ft....
Apr 12, 2023•19 min•Ep. 441
The Federal Reserve's H.8 data on US commercial banks shows just how much of a systemic shock the March seasonal bottleneck had produced. Institutions got hit with historic levels of deposit declines, emergency borrowings like nothing before, and because of it massive fallout followed - and continues to follow. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShi...
Apr 11, 2023•19 min•Ep. 440
