China's 2021 trade surpluses were gigantic, so why isn't the yuan surging too? We review China's 2014-21 trade and currency experience from the perspective of the eurodollar, the international reserve currency that once intermediated trade but now intermediates capital. ------EP. 185 TOPICS------ 00:00 INTRO: Capital flows drive trade, not vice versa. A review of the Chinese trade surplus. 03:39 The eurodollar created itself to finance, intermediate trade; to solve Triffin's Paradox. 06:12 The e...
Feb 11, 2022•26 min•Ep. 185
After Today’s FOMC, Yield Curve Is Already As Flat As It Was In Mar ’18 **Without A Single Rate Hike Yet** https://alhambrapartners.com/2022/01/26/after-todays-fomc-yield-curve-is-already-as-flat-as-it-was-in-mar-18-without-a-single-rate-hike-yet/
Jan 31, 2022•18 min•Ep. 184
Oil prices are up and so you would expect that Treasury Inflation Protected Security breakevens (inflation expectations) are ALSO up... but they are not. Like Bitcoin, TIPS are ignoring oil and focusing on something bigger, something worse?
Jan 30, 2022•14 min•Ep. 183
Retail inventory grew at a tremendous pace month-over-month in December 2021 in America. Overall inventory growth was so strong that it contributed overwhelmingly to a strong (?) increase in US GDP for the Q4. But is this actually good news?
Jan 29, 2022•24 min•Ep. 182
The Eurodollar futures curve inverted in December 2021 - what has it done since? Also, how to interpret the US Treasury yield curve in "three easy steps!" Lastly, did the Fed cause the price of (Buffalo) (chicken) wings to rise?
Jan 25, 2022•1 hr 5 min•Ep. 181
PART 1: Inflation @ 7% but... PART 2: Bonds Losing Value - Worst in 2 Years! - but... PART 3: Year 15 of Mass Formation Psychosis (We Explain Why) None of the "Mass Formation Psychosis" interviews with Joe Rogan, Chris Martenson, Robert Malone or Mattias Desmet explained WHY and WHEN. In this episode we do: a 15-year (so far) worldwide economic depression, only the third in the past 150 years.
Jan 21, 2022•1 hr 13 min•Ep. 180
Alan Greenspan warned in 1996 we would not know if stocks were irrational because we could not know how much money was in the economy. Also, wages are rising - just like they did in the Great Depression? Lastly, the October 2021 Treasury International Capital update.
Jan 09, 2022•57 min•Ep. 179
PART 01: The Fed has to taper faster because consumer prices (i.e. motor fuel, automobiles) rose faster than it expected. It didn't have the moxie to stare down the CPI increase and explain why QE (i.e. 'money') had nothing to do with CPI. Maybe they're not really a central (money) bank. PART 02: The US consumer price index increased by 6.8% year-over-year for the month of November. Inflation, right? Undisputed, incontrovertible evidence of inflation! Step right up and watch the amazing Harry Ho...
Dec 20, 2021•1 hr 1 min•Ep. 178
PART 01: The Eurodollar futures curve inverted on December 1st - what's happened since? Also, does the American, German and Japanese sovereign bond market corroborate the Eurodollar futures warning? Lastly, does China's lowering of its bank Required Reserve Ratio buttress the E$ warning too? PART 02: US Job Openings are near record highs, suggesting a rip-roaring economy. But Hires are nowhere near the same heights, suggesting a lousy economy. On the other hand, quits are at record highs, sugges...
Dec 13, 2021•1 hr 3 min•Ep. 177
The inflationary process is in its early stages, and it will be particularly strong because it arises in part from a devaluation of the world’s reserve currency. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Joseph Wang , author of the 2021 book Central Banking 101, spent five years as the senior trader on the open markets desk at the Federal Reserve. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Alegro " by TAGE at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- Mechanics ...
Dec 06, 2021•9 min•Ep. 176
PART 01: You've heard that when the US Treasury yield curve inverts it is a recession warning for the United States. What about when the Eurodollar futures curve inverts? That is a warning too. A monetary red alert for the entire world economy. On December 1st the Eurodollar curve inverted. PART 02: When the US Treasury yield curve inverts it's a recession warning for the United States. What about when the Eurodollar futures curve inverts? That's a warning too; a monetary Red Alert for the entir...
Dec 05, 2021•1 hr•Ep. 175
What does an expansionist monetary policy produce? Is it wise to lower the rate of interest so as to encourage economic activity? The classic text, by Ludwig von Mises. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- One of the most notable economists and social philosophers of the twentieth century, Ludwig von Mises , in the course of a long and highly productive life, developed an integrated, deductive science of economics based on the fundamental axiom that individual human beings act...
Dec 04, 2021•32 min•Ep. 174
Corporate QE amounts to a subsidy to large corporations, corporations that use the money to buy back shares and give big bonuses to executives. It would be far better for central banks to support small businesses and new ventures, particularly those pursuing solutions to climate change. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Frances Coppola , author of the 2019 book "The Case For People's Quantitative Easing", is a financial writer and blogger who appears regularly in Forbes and ...
Dec 03, 2021•16 min•Ep. 173
An uncomfortable truth: WWIII is not on the horizon, it is here. Militaries around the world are in a state of high-alert. “Sub-threshold" events are occurring with increasing frequency. War is digitizing. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Dr. Pippa Malmgren , author, economist, former White House advisor, entrepreneur and venture capitalist, is a well-recognized female voice in financial and geopolitical circles. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro ...
Dec 02, 2021•14 min•Ep. 172
Agricultural economists manipulated data to block Congress from acting on high beef prices and the destruction of independent cattle ranching. Why? Because they think monopolies are good. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Matt Stoller , author of the 2019 book " Goliath: The 100-Year War Between Monopoly Power and Democracy ", is a fellow at the Open Markets Institute and advises policymakers on the problem of monopoly. He has lectured on competition policy around the world ...
Dec 01, 2021•32 min•Ep. 171
According to the FAO Food Price Index, the cost of food has surged in real terms to levels last seen in the 1970s - during the Great Inflation. But another data set, by the OECD shows no such surge at all. What's going on? Is there a food price crisis, or not? A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Adam Tooze , author of the 2021 book "Shutdown: How Covid Shook the World's Economy", a professor of history at Columbia University. His 2018 book "Crashed" was the winner of the Lione...
Nov 30, 2021•23 min•Ep. 170
Fertilizer is a critical input to global food production but circumstances have conspired to throw a spanner into the food supply chain works. The supply and demand imbalances have caused a spike in fertilizer prices and, consequently, raised the costs of producing food. Who will pay for these increases? Farmers? Consumers? Is a period of food insecurity ahead? How long might it last? A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Allison Fedirka of Geopolitical Futures . Read by Emil Ka...
Nov 29, 2021•15 min•Ep. 169
PART 01: Jay Powell has been nominated by President Biden to serve another term as the Federal Reserve chair. Though his nomination has not even been heard by the US Congress, another group of people has already passed judgement on the second term: the bond market (and they say it'll be a failure!). PART 02: The Federal Reserve, and other central banks, buy tremendous amounts of government securities and this should impact bond prices. Should, but doesn't. That's because there's an even more pow...
Nov 28, 2021•59 min•Ep. 168
The Bank for International Settlements observes that bottlenecks in the supply of commodities, intermediate goods and freight transport have given rise to volatile prices and delivery delays. These disruptions have been particularly severe in upstream industries and have led to large international spillovers through global value chains. On the one hand, the inflationary effect of bottlenecks will likely be limited after relative prices have adjusted. But sustained pressures could emerge if bottl...
Nov 25, 2021•26 min•Ep. 167
We are now in a giant parking lot game that threatens the global economy. Thank deregulation and the Ocean Shipping Reform Act of 1998. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Matt Stoller is a fellow at the Open Markets Institute and advises policymakers on the problem of monopoly. He has lectured on competition policy around the world and his writing has appeared in various news media and publications. In 2019 he authored Goliath: The 100-Year War Between Monopoly Power and Demo...
Nov 24, 2021•34 min•Ep. 166
Silver's decade ahead maybe a perfect storm of demand for government-mandated green investment and of inflation by government-enforced financial repression. Move over 'gold bugs', silver fever is coming. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- The Singapore Bullion Market Association , represents bullion banks, exchanges, refineries, merchants and logistics companies. The SBMA now plays a pivotal role in the development of Singapore as one of the most global centres of connectivit...
Nov 23, 2021•19 min•Ep. 165
PART 01: America's September 2021 Treasury International Capital data corroborates dis/deflationary indications observed across various sources, the vast majority of which imply there's not enough money, and/or it's inadequately distributed, for the global economy to achieve permanent recovery. PART 02: Beijing reconfirmed what was made clear in 2017, during the 19th National Party Congress: the economic boom was over and it is time to prepare for it. If anyone in the West would care to listen, ...
Nov 22, 2021•1 hr 4 min•Ep. 164
In 1896 a great political battle erupted over monetary policy in the United States. That battle and its lessons are relevant today. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Adam Tooze , economist, author and historian. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Alegro " by TAGE at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- Chartbook #44: The Cross of Gold - populism, democratic iterations and the politics of money: https://bit.ly/3otXhQx ----------WHERE--------...
Nov 21, 2021•34 min•Ep. 163
China's imports of iron value is soaring, which signals a booming economy. A closer look reveals that it is iron prices which are soaring but volume - the real stuff, the real goods - is falling. What does that signal? That the world has fallen for an "booming economy" illusion. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Alegro " by TAGE at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- T...
Nov 20, 2021•13 min•Ep. 162
Trade appears to be booming in Germany and China, but a closer look reveals that the gains are concentrated in "price" and when we isolate "volume" of goods traded an entirely different, and ugly-ugly-ugly picture emerges. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Alegro " by TAGE at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- Global Trade and Global Prices, China and Germany’s ‘Growt...
Nov 19, 2021•15 min•Ep. 161
Author, reformed lawyer, economic historian and your man from Belfast, Russell Napier, explains why the 1995-98 Asian Financial Crisis set the stage for the Age of Debt (1999-2020) and the coming Era of Financial Repression (2021-??). ----RUSSELL NAPIER BIOGRAPHY--- Russell is chairman of the Mid Wynd International Investment Trust a closed end investment vehicle listed on the London Stock Exchange. He is a member of the investment advisory committees of three fund management companies, Cerno Ca...
Nov 18, 2021•51 min•Ep. 160
An interview with Professor Samuel Williamson, economic historian and co-founder of MeasuringWorth.com, discusses gas prices in 2021 and whether they are high, or low, relative to history in terms of consumer prices and labor hours. --------REFERENCES-------- Measuring Worth: https://bit.ly/36TfZZD Measuring Worth Twitter: https://bit.ly/3BuZotf Measuring Worth Blog: https://bit.ly/3rqyz4R -----HEAR EPISODE 159---- Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit...
Nov 17, 2021•41 min•Ep. 159
It is difficult to define what money is because the term money can refer to different things in different contexts. Money is not just a thing or unit of measurement but an ecosystem, a layer of social infrastructure, a language - and a source of power. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Rohan Grey , assistant professor at Willamette University College of Law, where he teaches contracts, business associations and securities regulation. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Pa...
Nov 16, 2021•22 min•Ep. 158
PART 01: Around the world data shows consumer prices are accelerating like we haven't seen in years, even decades. Why? Is it because politicians are wantonly giving away money? Are gluttonous central bankers printing cash? Is it a supply/demand imbalance? Is this the 1970s Great Inflation? PART 02: The "landmine" has been part of each of the four global/regional dollar squeezes of the past 14 years (2007-09, 2011-12, 2014-16, 2018-20). The "landmine" is when US Treasury Bond yields decline prec...
Nov 15, 2021•1 hr 2 min•Ep. 157
China has cross three red lines - what are they? Inflation is roaring red hot - why and will it last? Next year is shaping up as a prime candidate for Recession 2022 - who believes that? ----------WHO---------- Bilal Hafeez is the Founder and CEO of Macro Hive – a leading independent research firm. Prior to Macro Hive, Bilal was Global Head of International Fixed Income Strategy at Nomura between 2016 and 2019. Before that Bilal held various senior roles at Deutsche Bank between 2002 and 2015 in...
Nov 13, 2021•48 min•Ep. 156
