Petrodollar? There's no such thing. We didn't transition from a gold- to an oil-backed dollar. There was something else, another kind of dollar—hidden by a conspiracy of silence between '44 and '73. Instead the world transitioned from a gold-backed US dollar to a offshore, ledger-based bank-centered eurodollar. This same eurodollar system absorbed petrodollars, easily. ----EP. 215 REFERENCES---- There Are No Petrodollars, Plus the Focus Misses the Point: https://bit.ly/3xjpzTQ Alhambra Investmen...
Apr 10, 2022•25 min•Ep. 215
In the middle (1937-38) of the Great Depression (1929-47) the Federal Reserve FREAKED out about accelerating consumer prices and the EXCESS supply of bank reserves, so they started to hike rates. During a depression!! Rinse and repeat (2022-2?) during the Silent Depression (2007-2?). ----EP. 214 REFERENCES---- Curve Wars: Short Follows Long Because It’s *Never* Just One Part or One Curve: https://bit.ly/3JdswYE (Don't Fear) The Yield Curve, Reprise: https://bit.ly/3LKhXOo Alhambra Investments Bl...
Apr 09, 2022•35 min•Ep. 214
Americans' real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) stopped improving way back in October 2021. Would you believe that the US Treasury yield curve began to move towards inversion the very same month?! Now the curve has inverted, a warning that economic recession is probable. Welcome to Hades. ----EP. 213 REFERENCES---- The Short, Sweet Income Case For Ugly Inversion(s), Too: https://bit.ly/3DOSHDT Curve Inversion Confirmed by Fed's US Treasury Lending [Ep. 204]: https://youtu.be/BWsVCN...
Apr 08, 2022•13 min•Ep. 213
In the 1960s the Bank for International Settlements investigated the offshore, shadow-money system and found it straightforward and to be ignored. In the 1970s the Federal Reserve said same system had become complex and difficult to define; it then told the US Congress to ignore it. ----EP. 212 REFERENCES---- Volcker’s Petrodollar Bigfoot; Or Why Curves Today Are So Against The Fed And Its Rate Hikes: https://bit.ly/3J0mfzi Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWlin RealClear Markets E...
Apr 04, 2022•20 min•Ep. 212
The spread between the 7-year and 10-year US Treasury has been a leading indicator of US recession and/or global or regional capital liquidity shortages. We review the inversion and flattening from 1990 to the present. ----EP. 211 REFERENCES---- Long-end Inversion *Does* Indicate Recession Risks Are Actually Elevated: https://bit.ly/377fY7I Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWlin RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 -----SEE ALL EPISODES----- Alhambra YouTube: https://bi...
Apr 03, 2022•21 min•Ep. 211
A review of US 2021 Q4 GDP helps explain how surging demand, in concert with mauled logistical supply chains, caused blowout consumer price levels. Also, thoughts on gross domestic income and why real business income is less robust than nominal income. ----EP. 210 REFERENCES---- GDP (and GDI) Lays Out The Perfect Supply Shock Case, And Its Downside: https://bit.ly/3uGXHpT Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWlin RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 -----SEE ALL EPISODES--...
Apr 02, 2022•22 min•Ep. 210
The US Treasury yield and Eurodollar futures curves are inverted, strongly suggesting US recession and/or global monetary disorder lies ahead. This did not happen overnight! When did markets begin their journey to recession warnings? In October 2021. But why? ----EP. 209 REFERENCES---- Inversions And Inventory, The Major Products of October: https://bit.ly/3qU5U9k Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWlin RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 -----SEE ALL EPISODES----- Alha...
Apr 01, 2022•20 min•Ep. 209
Algorithmic stablecoins may be the solution to our 15-year monetary malfunction. We consider where and if stablecoins fit into money creation, intermediation and whether they'd be units of account, stores of wealth and/or mediums of exchange. ----EP. 208 REFERENCES---- *The* Monetary Answer: Undoing The Biggest Money Mistake of the Past: https://bit.ly/3IKVlLz Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWlin RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 -----SEE ALL EPISODES----- Alhambra...
Mar 29, 2022•35 min•Ep. 208
The Federal Reserve's rate hike increased the reverse repo program rate, the so-called rate "floor". But why then are the 4- and 8-week US Treasury Bills trading BELOW the floor? Because there's a collateral shortfall. A monetary deflation perhaps? ----EP. 207 REFERENCES---- The Fed Inadvertently Adds To Our Ironclad Collateral Case Which Does Seem To Have Already Included A ‘Collateral Day’ (or days): https://bit.ly/3wFfRv2 Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWlin RealClear Markets ...
Mar 28, 2022•28 min•Ep. 207
The US Treasury yield curve inversion is EXPANDING. It has now subsumed the 3-year note under a tide of negative economic expectations. This is the monetary system's warning claxon, but are the authorities listening? (No.) ----EP. 205 REFERENCES---- Inversion Is The Real March Madness, Just Don’t Take It Literally: https://bit.ly/3JF2lLt Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWlin RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 -----SEE ALL EPISODES----- Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.l...
Mar 27, 2022•25 min•Ep. 206
The US Treasury yield curve has inverted, strongly implying economic weakness and likely US recession. But can we identify purely monetary (i.e. non-economic) reasons for the inversion? Yes! Like tri-party repurchase agreements. ----EP. 205 REFERENCES---- There Is An Absolutely Solid Collateral Case For What’s Driving Curve Inversion(s) [Part 2]: https://bit.ly/3N4BY3y Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWlin RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 -----SEE ALL EPISODES-----...
Mar 22, 2022•26 min•Ep. 205
The US Treasury yield curve has inverted, likely because the US economy is weak sauce. But what if we focused solely on shadow-money variables? Can we confirm the inversion warning via measures of shadow-collateral? (Yes) ----EP. 204 REFERENCES---- There Is An Absolutely Solid Collateral Case For What’s Driving Curve Inversion(s) [Part 1]: https://bit.ly/3wzX2JJ Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWlin RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 -----SEE ALL EPISODES----- Alhamb...
Mar 21, 2022•26 min•Ep. 204
The US Treasury curve has inverted. The countdown to the next American recession has begun. We review what happened, where the inversion is in the yield curve and whether there are enough life jackets for everyone (no). ----EP. 203 REFERENCES---- Another One Inverts, The Retching Cat Reaches Treasuries: https://bit.ly/3KZc9Am Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWlin RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 -----SEE ALL EPISODES----- Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Em...
Mar 20, 2022•22 min•Ep. 203
An update on the US Treasury yield and Eurodollar futures curve shapes. Distorted? Contemplative? Grotesque? Retching cat chart pattern? ----EP. 202 REFERENCES---- Odd Curve Shapes, or More Chinese Than Russian: https://bit.ly/3IfGwAG Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWlin RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 -----SEE ALL EPISODES----- Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL ----HEAR ALL EPISODES----- Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn A...
Mar 15, 2022•20 min•Ep. 202
The 1940s witnessed monstrous increases in consumer prices. But it wasn't inflation. In the 1960s? Smaller increases, but it was inflation. What's the difference? What about today? -----SEE ALL EPISODES----- Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL ----HEAR ALL EPISODES----- Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza Goog...
Mar 14, 2022•29 min•Ep. 201
You won't believe it but Janet Yellen said in 2013 that narrative supply - not money supply - can be an effective tool. Turns out most Fed action is just popular psychology and the madness of crowds. -----SEE ALL EPISODES----- Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL ----HEAR ALL EPISODES----- Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza Google: https://bit.ly/3e2...
Mar 13, 2022•24 min•Ep. 200
Repurchase agreements are short-term collateralized loans made amongst banks. What happens when one party refuses to return the collateral? It's a "fail". They happen in swarms during unhealthy monetary conditions. They're happening now. -----SEE ALL EPISODES----- Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL ----HEAR ALL EPISODES----- Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z Castro: https://bit...
Mar 08, 2022•23 min•Ep. 199
Russia has been told they're out of SWIFT! Kind of. And not right away. And only some Russian banks, kind of. Does it matter? What is SWIFT? ----HEAR ALL EPISODES----- Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M Reason: https://bit.ly/3lt5NiH Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY Pandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3Qg Castbox: https://bi...
Mar 07, 2022•27 min•Ep. 198
Former editor at the Financial Times (Alphaville!) has struck out on her own - why? Is it a commentary on the business press and/or mainstream media and what they refuse to cover? Izabella has lots of questions for Jeff too.
Mar 07, 2022•1 hr 1 min•Ep. 197
On February 24, 2021 Fedwire broke down for several hours - it was the the feather that broke the economic recovery camel's back. Copper, gold, silver, the yuan, Kiwi dollar, Treasuries, swap spreads, OATs - even bitcoin - all saw their trajectories change for the worse. ------EP. 196 TOPICS------ 00:00 INTRO: Fedwire broke for hours on February 24, 2021 and took recovery down with it. 01:18 Many headlines in February 2021 suggest economic recovery and a boom was ahead. 03:00 At 11:15 AM Fedwire...
Mar 03, 2022•20 min•Ep. 196
A look at interest rate swap spreads relative to nominal US Treasury yields identifies constrained bank balance sheet capacity. Monetary measures like swap spreads, Eurodollar futures, yield curve flattening are all indicating that the balance of risks is tilting away from recovery and reflation. ------EP. 195 TOPICS------ 00:00 INTRO: Interest rate swap spreads are a peek at bank balance sheet capacity. 01:43 Bank balance sheet capacity represents ledger money; the reserve currency, eurodollar....
Mar 02, 2022•16 min•Ep. 195
An insider's view of regulations, bond markets, bank reserves, central banks, quantitative easing, fancy wines, when it's inappropriate to drink cappuccinos, government-guaranteed bank loans and more! Alfonso "Macro Alf" Peccatiello of The Macro Compass joins Jeff Snider (and Emil). ------EP. 194 TOPICS------ 00:00:00 INTRO: Introducing Alfonso Peccatiello, @MacroAlf and The Macro Compass. 00:04:08 Equities can qualify as high quality liquid assets - if you do it correctly. 00:05:47 Regulations ...
Mar 01, 2022•46 min•Ep. 194
Mohamed El-Erian appeared on Hidden Forces, a great podcast by Demitri Kofinas. But instead of challenging consensus narratives or thinking critically about the power shaping our world El-Erian obfuscated and misdirected Kofinas and the audience about economics, the Fed and history. ------EP. 193 TOPICS------ 00:00:00 INTRO: Reviewing Mohamed El-Erian's appearance on Hidden Forces with Demitri Kofinas. 00:00:56 El-Erian claims the Federal Reserve has made a "policy mistake" in three phases. 00:0...
Feb 28, 2022•54 min•Ep. 193
Anne Stevenson-Yang has been living in, writing about and/or focusing her work on China for more than 35 years. We discuss: employment not being a bureaucrat's concern, the transition to uneconomic activity, disinterest in simple social improvements, the 20th National Party Congress, and more! ------EP. 191 TOPICS------ 00:00:00 INTRO: Anne Stevenson-Yang spent several decades living, working and thinking in China. 00:01:20 Anne introduces herself and J Capital Research, her China and equities f...
Feb 25, 2022•47 min•Ep. 192
Jeff Snider & Emil Kalinowski dive into debunking central banking myths, explaining the effects of the past on our current time, and more in this November 2021 episode of Blockworks' "On the Margin" with Mike Ippolito. Jeff Snider & Emil Kalinowski dive into debunking central banking myths, explaining the effects of the past on our current time, and more in this week’s episode of On the Margin. Jeff & Emil are hosts of Eurodollar University, a podcast dedicated to analyzing the 2007 ...
Feb 22, 2022•1 hr 6 min•Ep. 191
A collateral call in Belgium! Foreign officials are selling US Treasuries! American banks extending less credit to the rest of the world! Japan borrowing more! These, and other, *nerdy* insights for December 2021 from the Treasury International Capital System! Tell all your friends! ------EP. 190 TOPICS------ 00:00 INTRO: TIC data for December was mixed, some positives, mostly negatives 00:55 Belgium reported a stunning one-month increase in holdings of US Treasuries. 09:11 Foreigners were buyin...
Feb 21, 2022•19 min•Ep. 190
Consumer inflation expectations peaked in October/November 2021, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Survey of Consumer Expectations. Market based inflation expectations (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) also peaked then. What in the CPI is going on here? ------EP. 189 TOPICS------ 00:00 INTRO: The Federal Reserve intends to raise short term interest rates because...??? 00:53 The Federal Reserve is not a central bank (it doesn't do money supply / demand). 03:07 The Fed wi...
Feb 20, 2022•27 min•Ep. 189
Caution! Ignore this market warning at your peril. The Eurodollar futures market inversion had deepened and broadened. Eurodollar yields inverted before, for example in 2000, 2005 and 2018. Turned out that Economic Hades was about 18 months away then. What about now? ------EP. 188 TOPICS------ 00:00 INTRO: The Eurodollar futures curve has deepened AND broadened its inversion. 00:39 The Eurodollar yield curve is like the US Treasury yield curve but global. 02:38 The E$ curve had been getting flat...
Feb 19, 2022•24 min•Ep. 188
The US government bond market appears to be out of step with CPI, a booming economy and money printing by central banks - what gives? We review two Federal Reserve officials explain that QE is very, really, super powerful (and that's why the bond market signals are haywire). ------EP. 187 TOPICS------ 00:00 INTRO: Federal Reserve officials say QE is very effective. 01:18 The US Treasury yield curve have been flattening for many months now. 03:49 Bill Dudley wrote a column for Bloomberg on August...
Feb 13, 2022•24 min•Ep. 187
Journalists Kate Duguid and Eric Platt explain that US government bond markets believe the Federal Reserve will be able to tame inflation. Actually bond markets believe the Fed doesn't know what it's doing AND they believe consumer prices increases are not caused by the Fed. ------EP. 186 TOPICS------ 00:00 INTRO: The Financial Times says the Federal Reserve will control inflation; Jeff reacts. 01:25 The Federal Reserve will use the labor market data to support rate hikes. 04:24 Are market based...
Feb 12, 2022•25 min•Ep. 186
