The Fed and Treasury have seen enough debt ceilings to develop a playbook that can be pieced together from past FOMC transcripts and Congressional subpoenas. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Joseph Wang spent five years as the senior trader on the open markets desk at the Federal Reserve. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Deadlines " by Dylan Sitts at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- Debt Ceiling Procedures: https://bit.ly/3jfTCnZ ---...
Oct 13, 2021•12 min•Ep. 125
George Friedman observes that China is embarking on a difficult socioeconomic transition. Paradoxically, the transition will cause observers to underrate the country's strength, in much the same manner as they presently overrate the nation. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- George Friedman of Geopolitical Futures . Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Deadlines " by Dylan Sitts at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- China’s Economic Crisis a...
Oct 12, 2021•11 min•Ep. 124
AnalystDC considers three developments in late-July 2021 that'll affect money markets for years to come: the Fed's Standing Repo Facility, the Group of Thirty recommendations and the Alternative Reference Rates Committte recommendations. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- AnalystDC , the anonymous enjoyer of illiquid credit, bond posting and money markets. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Deadlines " by Dylan Sitts at Epidemic Sound. ---------...
Oct 11, 2021•22 min•Ep. 123
PART 01: The US dollar is rising in value against a collection of currencies (except one). It's disconfirming evidence of sustainable economic recovery; it implies strained USD-funding. And there's still that one key, stable currency - unusually stable; suspiciously stable. PART 02: We review palladium, copper and iron ore - all metals and minerals that peaked in value in May (lumber too). Some commodities continue to rise in value, specifically energy. How do we reconcile the deflationary/disin...
Oct 11, 2021•1 hr 22 min•Ep. 122
An increased risk-off sentiment, resulting from the Evergrande drama - among several other factors, has perhaps increased the likelihood, as well as accelerated the timeline, of a CNY devaluation. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Maroon Macro , an anonymous global macro hedge fund analyst who is partial to the University of Chicago and writes about the mechanics of the monetary system, financial plumbing, and economic history. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins ...
Oct 09, 2021•28 min•Ep. 121
An unprecedent increase in household wealth from housing, stocks and cryptocurrencies may have structurally changed the US labor market. The Fed, assuming no structural change, may be running the economy much hotter than they realize. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Joseph Wang spent five years as the senior trader on the open markets desk at the Federal Reserve. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Deadlines " by Dylan Sitts at Epidemic Sound....
Oct 08, 2021•10 min•Ep. 120
The impact of Evergrande has caused financial distress to spread faster than Beijing expected, putting pressure on regulators to move quickly to stop the contagion. But they cannot rescue Evergrande’s creditors without also undermining their fight against bad debt. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Michael Pettis , Finance Professor at Peking University and Senior Fellow at Carnegie-Tsinghua Center. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Deadlines ...
Oct 07, 2021•27 min•Ep. 119
Jay Powell’s Fed portrays the economy in recovery mode and intends to taper monetary accommodation - yet the US dollar has been rising in value for months. Premature celebration? It reminds Jeff Snider of an episode in 2011 when the FOMC guffawed past the monetary graveyard. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Deadlines " by Dylan Sitts at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT------...
Oct 06, 2021•19 min•Ep. 118
Recent polling data from Alignable reveals a difficult small-business environment. Three regional Fed surveys confirm the softness. Is it merely the passing Delta-Covid? Or the labor-shortage? Will demand in 2022 be able to meet the oncoming wave of goods orders? A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Deadlines " by Dylan Sitts at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- Revisit...
Oct 05, 2021•11 min•Ep. 117
Like the bond market and the yield curve, the inventory situation is most often forward-looking. Powell is tapering and ignoring the potential of an inventory overhang, pretty much the same way as a few years ago. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " 36mm " by Jobii at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- Revisiting The Last Overhang: https://bit.ly/3isH5Nk ----------WHERE...
Oct 04, 2021•14 min•Ep. 116
PART 01: US Treasury Bonds have lost a lot of value since August, and especially in the last weeks of September. Is it a taper tantrum? Are foreigners selling lousy Uncle Sam paper? Is it Armageddon (again)? No, this happens—incredibly—'every' August. But why? PART 02: Since 2011, the US Treasury 10-year bond peaks in value during the summer-to-autumn transition. Ignoring the economic context, whether positive or negative, bonds lose value. They lose value whether central banks are hawkish or do...
Oct 03, 2021•1 hr 16 min•Ep. 115
The bezzle is the temporary gap between the perceived value of assets and long-term economic value. Economies at times systematically create bezzle, unleashing substantial economic consequences that economists have rarely understood or discussed. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Michael Pettis , Finance Professor at Peking University and Senior Fellow at Carnegie-Tsinghua Center. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " 36mm " by Jobii at Epidemic S...
Oct 02, 2021•39 min•Ep. 114
The Bank for International Settlements summarizes the rise and fall of the offshore eurodollar system. Offshore banking, regulatory arbitrage, financial liberalization and financial innovation created the system, which expanded exponentially--at least until 2007. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Robert McCauley , Patrick McGuire and Philip Wooldridge of the Bank for International Settlements. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " 36mm " by Jobii ...
Oct 01, 2021•32 min•Ep. 113
Lyn Alden's August newsletter focuses on the ongoing supply chain issues, inflation, and commodities. In many ways, the 2020s decade continues to mirror the 1940s in terms of fiscal policy, monetary policy, and de-globalization. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy . Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " 36mm " by Jobii at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- Supply Chain Woes: https://bit.ly/2XRMCpi ---...
Sep 30, 2021•26 min•Ep. 112
Jeff Snider presents history's great monetary shortages -- the 14th century's Great Bullion Famine, the 20th century's Triffin's Paradox, the 21st century's Eurodollar Famine -- and how human innovation -- ghost money, eurodollar, cryptocurrency -- overcame monetary adversity. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " 36mm " by Jobii at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- Rebe...
Sep 29, 2021•1 hr 1 min•Ep. 111
Jeff Snider reviews the recent Bank of Japan experience with quantitative and qualitative easing. The central bank starts off on the wrong foot, focusing on credit quality issues instead of market participants' liquidity preferences and it goes sideways from there. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " 36mm " by Jobii at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- Central Bankers ...
Sep 28, 2021•23 min•Ep. 110
The Fed's expected taper is just empty, insignificant theater. The Fed is tapering never once having answered for headwinds, false dawns, and the world’s true wealth repeatedly suffering under stagnation and decline. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Born in the 90's " by Ameryh at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- Previewing The Taper Theater: https://bit.ly/3CEBQ4N...
Sep 27, 2021•16 min•Ep. 109
PART 1: Offshore shadow money funds the global economy, but it lies in the shadows; it's off-balance sheet and off-the-regulatory-radar. A good place to get a sense of offshore shadow money is the Treasury International Capital report. Jeff Snider serves as our guide through July's data - and warnings. PART 2: Interest rate swap spreads are negative. These 'underwater' derivatives indicate very high market demand relative to money dealer supply. So, if bank balance sheet capacity remains constra...
Sep 26, 2021•1 hr 4 min•Ep. 108
Karl Marx, the 19th-century German philosopher, economist, historian, sociologist, political theorist, journalist and socialist revolutionary, on the confounding and inverting nature of money and wealth. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Karl Marx. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Born in the 90's " by Ameryh at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- Economic & Philosophic Manuscripts of 1844: https://bit.ly/2XG9I2c ----------WHERE-----...
Sep 26, 2021•10 min•Ep. 107
Financial historian Daniel Oliver's essay on real rates, the profligacy of the Federal Reserve, inflation and the path of nominal gold prices. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Daniel Oliver of Myrmikan Capital . Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Born in the 90's " by Ameryh at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- Real Rates Go More Negative: https://bit.ly/3EG5ada ----------WHERE---------- Myrmikan: http://myrmikan.com/ Daniel Oliver: htt...
Sep 25, 2021•17 min•Ep. 106
Historian and geopolitical strategist George Friedman asks, 'Why has the United States, the most powerful state (since the Roman Empire) lost three wars in the past 50 years?' A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. -------HEADS UP------- In October Geopolitical Futures will do a special series on Geopolitics and Economics. George Friedman and special guests as we dig into the socio-economics of international conflict, the relationship between a nation’s economics, military, and political aspects, and te...
Sep 24, 2021•14 min•Ep. 105
A review of August's Treasury International Capital data. The chief benefit is, unlike most who don’t know or can’t read the data, which is pretty much everyone, you at least know in which direction to start looking. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Born in the 90's " by Ameryh at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- PracTICal Remainders and Reminders: https://bit.ly/3...
Sep 23, 2021•13 min•Ep. 104
The mainstream media is asking if China's property developer imminent demise will be the "Lehman" moment. Unlikely. It's more likely this will be yet another Chinese Bear Stearns. The first? Shanghai Chaori Solar. In 2013. This is no new development catching authorities offguard. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Born in the 90's " by Ameryh at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHA...
Sep 22, 2021•17 min•Ep. 103
Central bankers had a choice in the 1970s: follow the offshore money, diving headfirst down the rabbit hole; or, ignore it entirely, pretend none of this exists, and then hope by stroke of luck it won’t matter. We’re still paying for the ignorance and dereliction. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Born in the 90's " by Ameryh at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- Doll...
Sep 21, 2021•16 min•Ep. 102
It’s becoming too obvious to keep overlooking Keynes' statement when little credit-collateral-money, "is...available our wealth suffers stagnation or decline.” The problem is hardly anyone knows what just why there might be so little. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Born in the 90's " by Ameryh at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- They're Ignoring That There's Too ...
Sep 20, 2021•21 min•Ep. 101
PART 01: Producer prices in the US are elevated, but decelerating. They're elevated because of demand surges, supply shocks and logistics snarls - all TRANSITORY factors. Producer prices ARE NOT elevated because of permanent, pervasive central bank or government inflationary action. PART 02: Consumer prices in the US are elevated, but decelerating. They're elevated because of demand surges, supply shocks and logistics snarls - all TRANSITORY factors. Consumer prices ARE NOT elevated because of p...
Sep 19, 2021•1 hr 8 min•Ep. 100
PART 1: 'Maybe the economy isn't in as good a condition as you economists / academics / technocrats think it is,' says the labor force participation rate. 'The economy is in fantastic shape,' says the unemployment rate. Which one is correct? PART 2: Labor shortages are normal, at the microscale, from time to time, in this or that industry. Yet since 2008, establishment economists use "labor shortage" as an excuse to: A) support a misleadingly low unemployment rate and, B) explain away the partic...
Sep 13, 2021•1 hr 13 min•Ep. 99
PART 01: A lousy labor market report for August is being blamed on a "labor shortage". Also, 'lazy Americans' and 'the delta'. But the real problem is that businesses will not pay a market-clearing wage to hire the workers they need. Why not? Because the economy is lousy. PART 02: A long-standing NBC News Survey shows John & Jane Q. Public perceive the economy's condition BETTER than economists who anchor to the unemployment rate. Since 2005, US citizens have sensed each global dollar squeez...
Sep 05, 2021•1 hr 13 min•Ep. 98
Jay Powell announced his central bank is satisfied (enough) with the economy's direction. Thus, the Fed will soon be 'tapering'; lessening the 'monetary stimulus'. What did bond-money markets say? Did they have a tantrum? No, because they don't believe what Jay believes. -----SEE EPISODE 97------- Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL -----HEAR EPISODE 97----- Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE iHea...
Aug 30, 2021•50 min•Ep. 97
PART 01: What did the Federal Reserve think about gold and the Nixon Shock in 1971? According to the transcripts they didn't think much about gold, neither pre- nor post-announcement. The Fed did not see the move as a release from its 'golden fetters' so as to dominate the monetary order. PART 02: The US Treasury Department released their Treasury International Capital, one of the keyholes analysts can look through to get a sense what is happening in the eurodollar system. Jeff Snider explains t...
Aug 22, 2021•1 hr 16 min•Ep. 96
