Pandemic Unemployment Assistance benefits in the United States eliminated eight million income streams in September 2021. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Alegro " by TAGE at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- The Wile E. Powell Inflation: Are We Really Just Going To Ignore The Cliff?: https://bit.ly/3H68ejJ ----------WHERE---------- Jeff's Alhambra Blog: https://bit...
Nov 12, 2021•8 min•Ep. 155
Does rapid central bank money creation resulting from large-scale purchases of government securities fuel inflation? A review of the experience in Britain, Europe and Japan. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Gianluca Benigno, assistant vice president and head of international research in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Research and Statistics Group with Paolo Pesenti, senior vice president and policy lead on monetary policy in the Bank’s Research and Statistics Group....
Nov 11, 2021•23 min•Ep. 154
From Book I (Productive Powers Of Labour), Chapter V (Of The Real And Nominal Price Of Commodities, Or Of Their Price In Labour, And Their Price In Money). A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Adam Smith , the Scottish economist, philosopher, pioneer of political economy and a key figure of the Scottish Enlightenment. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Alegro " by TAGE at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- An Inquiry into the Nature and Caus...
Nov 10, 2021•13 min•Ep. 153
From Being & Nothingness, Part Four (Having, Doing and Being), Chapter Two (Doing and Having), Part II ("Doing" and "Having" Possession). A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jean-Paul Charles Aymard Sartre , the French philosopher, playwright, novelist, screenwriter, political activist, biographer and literary critic. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Alegro " by TAGE at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- Being and Nothingness: An Essa...
Nov 09, 2021•9 min•Ep. 152
The past two decades have seen the construction of a tiered system of international liquidity provision, the first tier including those whose credit is sufficient for a swap line, the second tier including those who can offer acceptable collateral, and the third tier including everyone else. It is a global dollar system, with the Fed operating de facto as the global central bank providing international lender of last resort support to the system. It is a system created not so much by conscious d...
Nov 08, 2021•40 min•Ep. 151
PART 01: An early-1950s US consumer buying-binge sent the Consumer Price Index soaring. Inflation!? No. It was a transitory supply/demand imbalance brought on by (geo)political factors. The bond market knew it and didn't overreact. And what about the Federal Reserve? They overreacted. PART 02: We review the 1950s, 1960s, 1970s, 2000s and 2010s to study how bond yields reacted to persistent and pervasive monetary expansion, stagnation and contraction as well as how bond markets handled transitory...
Nov 07, 2021•1 hr 13 min•Ep. 150
Lyn Alden's October newsletter focuses on value stocks compared to growth stocks and makes an argument for at least a mild resurgence of value performance. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Alegro " by TAGE at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- A Resurgence in Value: https://bit.ly/3Cy3QHC ----------WHERE---------- Lyn's Website: https://www.lynalden.com/ Lyn's...
Nov 06, 2021•26 min•Ep. 149
George Friedman begins to look ahead at ideas and geographies that will and will not matter in the year 2022: Covid, China, Russia, Europe, the Middle East, the United States and even the Caribbean. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- George Friedman of Geopolitical Futures . Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Alegro " by TAGE at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- Forecasting Time: https://bit.ly/3pNMxPf ----------WHERE---------- George Fri...
Nov 05, 2021•11 min•Ep. 148
The September 2021 reading for America's new orders of durable goods shows stagnation / stalling. It is likely much worse but we won't know it for several years, not until the benchmark revisions are performed. We've seen this before, in 2018. And 2014. And 2012. Don't be surprised this time. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Alegro " by TAGE at Epidemic Sound. ----------WH...
Nov 04, 2021•15 min•Ep. 147
The United States' third quarter is in the books - how did the economy do? A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Alegro " by TAGE at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- GDP Red Flag: https://bit.ly/2ZIBbBD ----------WHERE---------- Jeff's Alhambra Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wW Jeff's RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 Jeff's Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSni...
Nov 03, 2021•9 min•Ep. 146
How can anyone say there’s a dollar shortage and dramatically rising deflationary potential right now? Easy, actually. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Alegro " by TAGE at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- Short Run TIPS, LT Flat, Basically Awful Real(ity): https://bit.ly/3bu4Y38 ----------WHERE---------- Jeff's Alhambra Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wW Jeff's RealClear...
Nov 02, 2021•10 min•Ep. 145
In September the leaders of Australia, India, Japan and the United States met to discuss, among other things, how to counter-balance the growing power of China in the Indo-Pacific. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Velina Tchakarova is Director of the Austrian Institute for European and Security Policy in Vienna. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Alegro " by TAGE at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- The Quad Summit amid the Bifurcation ...
Nov 01, 2021•14 min•Ep. 144
Mastercard is compelling adult content providers to know their customer... and their content. If not, access will be withheld to payment processing. But Mastercard is an oligopolist, its censorship affects everyone. Is that proper? A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- John Paul Koning believes thinking about money is more interesting than making money. He writes about monetary economics, economic history, finance, and fintech at his his Moneyness blog as well as for the Sound M...
Oct 31, 2021•14 min•Ep. 143
Medieval Europeans put animals on trial for various misdemeanors and felonies: murderous pigs sent to the gallows, sparrows prosecuted for chattering in church, a gang of thieving rats let off on a wholly technical acquittal. It was an act of rebellion against Chaos, an attempt to restrain the capricious Universe under human order. Is modern society more sophisticated? Or do we too attempt to assign order to Chaos when we mislabel it as "conspiracy" or "(in)competence"? A reading, by Emil Kalino...
Oct 30, 2021•20 min•Ep. 142
There is a goods shortage on the store shelf, yes. But that does not mean there is a goods shortage - instead it is a warehousing and logistics problem. In fact, we may be facing a surplus of goods that's about to wash over the economy. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Alegro " by TAGE at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- What *Seems* Inflation Now Is Something Else...
Oct 29, 2021•13 min•Ep. 141
The US Treasury bond market has been correctly anticipating inflation, disinflation, deflation as well as transitory, non-money-related increases in consumer prices for decades. Decades. Maybe we should listen to them? A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Lepiten Falls " by Ooyy at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- Do Bonds Accurately Price Inflation? Since Before Any o...
Oct 28, 2021•18 min•Ep. 140
Federal Reserve economist Jeremy Rudd's paper savages the use of inflation expectations in monetary econometrics. He lambasts the profession for producing "minimal direct evidence" and the "next-to-no-examination of alternatives". A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Maverick " by Ooyy at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- The Asymmetry of Ineffective and Worthless QE: h...
Oct 27, 2021•21 min•Ep. 139
Time travel to the early 1970s where we hear the Nixon Tapes, read memorandums, and study Congressional testimony to understand what the Federal Reserve knew, and when they knew it. Turns out they didn't know "money" then and they still don't today. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Amber Lights " by Chill Cole at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- The Power of Money ...
Oct 26, 2021•21 min•Ep. 138
Arthur Schopenhauer, in the essay "The Wisdom of Life", favors individual strength of will and independent, reasoned deliberation over the tendency to act on irrational impulses. In the third chapter he contemplates "property, or what a man has". A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Arthur Schopenhauer, the German philosopher. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Amber Lights " by Chill Cole at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- The Wisdom of ...
Oct 25, 2021•13 min•Ep. 137
PART 01: The 'debate' in the US Congress about the debt 'ceiling' prevented the US Treasury Dept. from issuing UST Bills, the ultimate risk-free asset. This put serious stress on the Chinese currency. Now, with the 'debate' tabled till December, Beijing (and the world) are safe... for now. PART 02: The US Treasury yield curve IS NOT inverted and, therefore, is not signaling a recession warning. But IT IS warning that the Federal Reserve's reasoning to "taper" its quantitative easing program (i.e...
Oct 24, 2021•1 hr 4 min•Ep. 136
Kratom is a legal stimulant but MasterCard and Visa refuse to process payments by kratom vendors. How do vendors work around this embargo? And should these two network oligopolies be allowed to decide which licit products they deal with? A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- John Paul Koning believes thinking about money is more interesting than making money. He writes about monetary economics, economic history, finance, and fintech at his his Moneyness blog as well as for the S...
Oct 23, 2021•15 min•Ep. 135
Maroon Macro has become cautiously optimistic about Decentralized Finance's (DeFi) potential to disrupt the traditional financial system. DeFi is extraordinarily elegant in the way in which it reenables elasticity in the machinery of exchange. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Maroon Macro , an anonymous global macro hedge fund analyst who is partial to the University of Chicago and writes about the mechanics of the monetary system, financial plumbing, and economic history. ...
Oct 22, 2021•20 min•Ep. 134
Beijing knows it wants to discontinue the country’s existing, unsustainable growth model. The latest "Common Prosperity" policy will only shift domestic demand at the margins; a full-fledged rebalancing will require a more radical transformation. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Michael Pettis , Finance Professor at Peking University and Senior Fellow at Carnegie-Tsinghua Center, specializes in Chinese financial markets, economic history, global capital flows and the relati...
Oct 21, 2021•18 min•Ep. 133
We tend to talk about infrastructure in terms of spending amounts. But infrastructure in a monopoly-dominated economy is not just about money, it's about who governs - monopolists, or the public? A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Matt Stoller is a fellow at the Open Markets Institute and advises policymakers on the problem of monopoly. He has lectured on competition policy around the world and his writing has appeared in various news media and publications. In 2019 he author...
Oct 20, 2021•25 min•Ep. 132
AnalystDC looks back at how the US money market has evolved in 2021 so far by reviewing the Fed's balance sheet and considering where things could go from here for the Fed, large and small US banks as well as foreign bank offices. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- AnalystDC , the anonymous enjoyer of illiquid credit, bond posting and money markets. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Amber Lights " by Chill Cole at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT...
Oct 19, 2021•27 min•Ep. 131
Dear Ladies and Gentlemen, Typically the show notes are loaded with information about the show, reference material and acknowledgement of the people that helped make the show. Unfortunately Episode 129 was damned by the Universe and came to us straight from Hades, Ring Four, Pit 03 (on the left). Thankfully all the content is there. But everything else, everything else that it takes to make the show was cursed by Podcast Deus. Everything went wrong, not just for me but for everyone involved with...
Oct 18, 2021•1 hr 4 min•Ep. 129
Freedom, Truth, and Love: three creative principles distinguished by uninhibited exchange. Is it any coincidence that voluntary exchange is essential to all three? A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Robert Breedlove , freedom maximalist. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Amber Lights " by Chill Cole at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- Freedom, Truth, and Love: https://bit.ly/3janbXL ----------WHERE---------- Robert's Substack: https://b...
Oct 18, 2021•14 min•Ep. 130
Bank balance sheets are expanding in 2021, which is great news if you believe credit is modern money. But a closer look reveals banks are PILING into the SAFEST assets while beating a RETREAT from loans (real economy money). We haven't seen this in three generations. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Deadlines " by Dylan Sitts at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- The...
Oct 16, 2021•24 min•Ep. 128
Money, a necessary evil seems to be best compliment one can pay it. Starr argues that money, in a world of constraints and choices, helps identify price. And for all the kind words written about "value" let us consider the importance of "price" and spare a kind word about money. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Roger Starr (1918-2001), editorial writer for the New York Times, military intelligence officer, New York City housing administrator. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art b...
Oct 15, 2021•15 min•Ep. 127
Oil prices are intentionally offered as Inflation Exhibit A, even though at best it is a lagging indicator. In 2008, 2011 and 2018 we saw metal prices turn south while oil kept heading north; oil incorrectly interpreting the economic setting each time. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Deadlines " by Dylan Sitts at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- Chip Shortages, Cr...
Oct 14, 2021•14 min•Ep. 126
