Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details: https://www.eurodollar.university The more they tell us how great everything is, the more you know it isn't. Americans like their compatriots from around the world know something isn't right. We've seen this kind of divergence from "elite" opinion, descriptions, even mainstream labor data before. Long and silent depression. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com...
Feb 11, 2024•22 min•Ep. 697
Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details: https://www.eurodollar.university You might be amazed at just how much Chinese authorities have tried to stabilize their system. If you knew, you'd understand why so much of Beijing is verging on panic-mode. The huge response has come up empty which is a clear signal for how much trouble there really is. For his part, Xi Jinping purged another official unsurprisingly related to financial markets (stock...
Feb 09, 2024•18 min•Ep. 696
Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details: https://www.eurodollar.university What's behind the renewed banking woes? Sure, we know it almost certainly has to do with commercial real estate, but we need to get a sense of how much trouble that might lead to. Digging into what information we have available, let's put some hard numbers on the CRE bubble while we go over the latest developments among the US regionals. Eurodollar University's Money &...
Feb 08, 2024•21 min•Ep. 695
To sign up for our free February 19 webinar, follow the links at our homepage here: https://www.eurodollar.university According to these historically validated datapoints, the worst is straight ahead for the US in 2024. In just two charts, we can place together three critical pieces of macroeconomic information which provides a useful guide for determining cyclical circumstances in the US economy. Bank lending, commercial borrowing and, most important, commercial employing. Eurodollar University...
Feb 07, 2024•18 min•Ep. 694
After an "unexpected" late 2023 plunge, oil prices rebounded and the WTI curve even managed to flip from contango to backwardation. Rather than point to a firming global situation, the latest move in the crude market instead proves it was just Red Sea shipping fears. A shocking collapse in German trade reminds us of what oil's fundamentals really are. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis IEA Monthly Oil Report December 2023 https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-december-202...
Feb 06, 2024•17 min•Ep. 693
Even though we don't yet have a topic or a possible guest scheduled, you can still sign up for the next EDU webinar anyway which will take place on Monday, February 19 at 6:30pm EDT. Link here: https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/Eurodollarwebinar It's not just the payroll data that is conflicted with itself, there are a number of other mainstream sources where the economic situation depicted by them could not be more different. Stepping back and looking at it all, we end up finding more lining...
Feb 05, 2024•17 min•Ep. 692
Even though we don't yet have a topic or a possible guest scheduled, you can still sign up for the next EDU webinar anyway which will take place on Monday, February 19 at 6:30pm EDT. Link here: https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/Eurodollarwebinar This is getting ridiculous. We've become used to seeing Est. Survey vs. HH Survey in US labor data, but now it's Est. Survey vs. Est. Survey. The headline payroll number shows one thing, then the rest of the same data says the exact opposite. What in ...
Feb 04, 2024•18 min•Ep. 691
If you're looking for a guide on collateral and how to spot shortfalls in it, get your copy of EDU's report on collateral shortages here: https://funnel.eurodollar.university/collateral This isn't about a relatively small New York community bank no one had heard of until yesterday. The markets reactions to it were far more important than the details of that bank's announcement. There is not a whole lot of faith in banking, and it may be the ball is rolling once again on that front. Eurodollar Un...
Feb 02, 2024•20 min•Ep. 690
Even though we don't yet have a topic or a possible guest scheduled, you can still sign up for the next EDU webinar anyway which will take place on Monday, February 19 at 6:30pm EDT. Link here: https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/Eurodollarwebinar Suggest topics or someone to join Jeff on Presidents Day in the comments. Wild day in bonds has the market doing something highly unusual. There "shouldn't" be a rally in LT rates so soon after the last big one. Global markets are strong anyway which ...
Feb 01, 2024•20 min•Ep. 689
Full interview with Brent Johnson on Eurodollar Dominance https://funnel.eurodollar.university/dollar You won't believe how much debt our broke government issued last year. MULTIPLE trillions. At the same time, the Federal Reserve did three-quarters of a trillion USTs roll off its balance sheet (QT). Rather than destroy the Treasury market or bonds in general, quite the opposite has happened. You NEED to ask yourself WHY. There is no soft landing here. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro A...
Jan 31, 2024•17 min•Ep. 688
New York Fed's Empire PMI kicked off the January data cycle by plunging. In the meantime, the rest of the regional data filled in the picture for the month and the final one of the group ended up more like the first one than not. We shouldn't underestimate the usefulness of these surveys especially since there are numerous signs, however long it might end up being, this is still a cycle. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey https://www.dallasfed.o...
Jan 30, 2024•19 min•Ep. 687
To see the rest of Jeff's conversation with Hugh, become an EDU member or DDA subscriber. There is so much more available for EDU members and subscribers, starting with loads of background material, video series like the Basics, multi-part presentations, Q&A vids, Classroom pieces that go over the crucial parts of money and the eurodollar system. Subscribers to EDU's Deep Dive Analysis (DDA) get daily deep dives into current events, what's really happening and what they mean. We are having a...
Jan 29, 2024•34 min•Ep. 686
The Fed keeps having to screw around with what should be its primary job. The Fed is now trying to go back to the past with its Discount Window, hoping to fix it so the program might work this time. Officials are in a bind being forced to unwind the BTFP after unintentionally granting too generous terms. What are they missing? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Jan 29, 2024•22 min•Ep. 685
For those in the Soft Landing USA camp, there was everything in today's Q4 2023 GDP report. Growth rate, consumers, an even more solid dose of disinflation. Near perfect Goldilocks. So why wasn't it taken that way in the market? Some answers from Europe. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Lagarde Says It’s Likely ECB Will Cut Rates in Summer https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-17/davos-2024-lagarde-says-agressive-rate-cut-bets-don-t-help-ecb ECB Monetary Pol...
Jan 26, 2024•17 min•Ep. 684
Unnerved by recent developments in financial markets and its economy, Chinese authorities unveiled a rash of new measures. To understand the degree of danger, we examine the proposals before keying on critical signals like repo and interbank conditions. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis PBOC statement http://www.pbc.gov.cn/goutongjiaoliu/113456/113469/5218615/index.html Bloomberg China Weighs Stock Market Rescue Package Backed by $278 Billion https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...
Jan 25, 2024•20 min•Ep. 683
Beside the S&P 500, Japan's Nikkei 225 has been basking in the global spotlight. Surging to its highest in decades and not all that far anymore from its own all-time mark, it might seem Japanese equity investors are expressing loads of confidence from the Asian perspective. Just like US indices, however, there are a number of reasons to look at the Nikkei with caution - starting with China and then going from there. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.un...
Jan 24, 2024•19 min•Ep. 682
First part of Mike Green conversation, including the retirement bombshell from IBM: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6jfIDNqVnZo The rest of it is available for EDU members and DDA subscribers. If you aren't one, you can become one here: https://www.eurodollar.university/memberssubscriptions The S&P 500 hit another record high. That's proof the US is on track to achieve its Goldilocks scenario, soft landing and disinflation combined. Or is it? What do stock indexes really tell us? Sifting thr...
Jan 23, 2024•19 min•Ep. 681
You often hear someone in the media say the bond market is currently pricing for five or six Fed rate cuts. That's not actually what's being priced. This is not a subtle difference or a few degrees of interpretation. This is night and day with stocks potentially getting caught in between. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Jan 22, 2024•19 min•Ep. 680
EDU's report on Collateral Shortages https://funnel.eurodollar.university/collateral What was last year's banking crisis really about? Deposit flight was only the first part of it. In a bombshell report prepared by a working group of the G30, it admits the biggest challenge for banks and central banks alike was...collateral. What the group recommends authorities do about it is...insane. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis G30 BANK FAILURES AND CONTAGION LENDER OF LAST RESORT, LIQU...
Jan 21, 2024•18 min•Ep. 679
More data from the Chinese economy and real estate market which further confirms the dire situation China is facing. Xi Jinping is facing that situation by tightening his grip even further, waging a stepped-up war against corruption even though Xi declared corruption had been defeated five years ago. This isn't about corruption; the more the Chinese gov't does, including purges, the worst it is getting. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis SCMP ‘No one is safe’: China purges record...
Jan 19, 2024•18 min•Ep. 678
Ho ho wut? Data looks awful one day but fine the next. Yesterday's Empire Fed plunged, yet today the gov't reports retail sales numbers that look fine. Was Christmas a bust, or was it strong like everyone now says? Reconciling these numbers - including production - isn't really difficult starting with "strong" context. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU #recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation...
Jan 18, 2024•19 min•Ep. 677
The Empire Fed's manufacturing PMI absolutely plummeted in January 2024. While it may be just one region for one month, these numbers are some of the worst on record and convincingly add to the growing list of evidence that the US economy is heading into the non-linear part of the recession process. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Germany Narrowly Escapes Recession But Outlook Remains Tough https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-15/germany-s-economy-shrank-l...
Jan 17, 2024•19 min•Ep. 676
To watch the full interview you can access it with our deep dive or membership site https://www.eurodollar.university This conversation wasn’t just an inside account of LTCM and a recall of history at of those famous crossroads, Jim Rickards and Jeff ruminate over the implications from the affair which are still reverberating through time right up to this day. The struggles to contain the fallout from the debacle are every bit as relevant now as it was shocking way back then. Eurodollar Universi...
Jan 16, 2024•28 min•Ep. 675
Jim Rickards Interview (1st Part) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NA4JH9S39wg For memberships and subscriptions, there's a "secret" sale going on here: https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1 Chinese leadership ended 2023 on several ominous notes. Economic and importantly financial data continues to defy expectations for a turnaround adding more evidence to the perilous situation. At the same time, the government is making more extreme political action, purging more top officials under th...
Jan 15, 2024•21 min•Ep. 674
EDU's Guide to What A Collateral Shortage Looks Like Link Here: https://funnel.eurodollar.university/collateral A big move in short-term rates especially the critical 2-year UST has yield curves closing in on un-inversion. That is a critical threshold and unlike a few months ago it is unfolding in the "bull" direction. It is very important to understand what is happening and why it really matters. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https...
Jan 14, 2024•19 min•Ep. 673
Consumer prices accelerated in December, so that means the term "transitory disinflation" will be out in full force for the third time in a year. The risk of actual inflation, however, remains incredibly low to non-existent regardless of what that term implies. And that's easily established by the growing mountain of evidence and a host of clear historical parallels. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis BLS CPI Press Release Jan 11, 2024 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htm htt...
Jan 12, 2024•20 min•Ep. 672
EDU's Guide to What A Collateral Shortage Looks Like Link Here: https://funnel.eurodollar.university/collateral So, there were a whole lot of repo fails at the end of December. What does that mean? What are repo fails? They are often fickle and fleeting, but they can tell us something very important about just what we want to know where it comes to the beating heart of the global monetary system. Decoding fails is actually pretty easy with a little bit of knowledge and history. Eurodollar Univer...
Jan 11, 2024•21 min•Ep. 671
The recent bond rally - which may not be over - was one for the books. The 10-year US Treasury dropped nearly 120 bps off its yield in only 47 trading days. A move that big and that fast for the 10s had only happened six other times over the last three decades. We'll go over what that means and what it can tell us about where we go from here; bonds and everything else. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU...
Jan 10, 2024•20 min•Ep. 670
EDU's Guide to What A Collateral Shortage Looks Like Link Here: https://funnel.eurodollar.university/collateral While everyone was looking into year-end SOFR, real money stuff went haywire. Repo fails absolutely surged and swap spreads collapsed more than they had already. Dealers are hoarding Treasuries at the same time where banks are hitting up the Fed's BTFP. What do all of these and others mean, including the BTFP? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis IOSCO/CPSS Securities Len...
Jan 09, 2024•20 min•Ep. 669
Friday delivered labor market body blows to the soft landing's chances. Friday was filled with labor market data that isn't leaving us any gray area. The evidence continues to stack up and in more convincing fashion the US economy bonds were right. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU #recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #ratecuts #feder...
Jan 08, 2024•19 min•Ep. 668
