China just held its National People's Congress amidst more economic and financial turmoil than at any time in its modern history. Two things quickly became clear: Xi Jinping continues to insulate himself politically from any potential fallout; his government has no idea what to be about it. The latest data from Chinese banks and the country's housing market highlight the gravity of the situation and how little policies are helping. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis People's Dail...
Mar 17, 2024•20 min•Ep. 727
More recession signals. We've got the major dollar store chains in the US closing stores and reporting troubling results about consumer behavior. Those are now backed up by hard evidence in the form of retail sales, which have been much worse than initial thought. Behind everything, the looming recession, is the fact oil prices are NOT inflation nor inflationary. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Dollar General Q4 2023 results https://investor.dollargeneral.com/websites/dollarge...
Mar 14, 2024•17 min•Ep. 726
Is "inflation" back? A big part of the answer to that question comes from the oil market, though not at all in the way you might think. A revisit of the 2008 crude oil bubble/shock to see what it can tell us about a lot more than consumer prices in 2024. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis OPEC March 2024 Announcement https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/7305.htm Remarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke October 21, 2004 https://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2004/2004...
Mar 13, 2024•19 min•Ep. 725
Today is the last day for new loans from the Fed's BTFP, and there is still $165 billion being borrowed from it. In fact, that balance increased just last week. What are the implications of the shutdown? We keep coming back to the same factor which was all over last March. And with CRE looming in the background, too. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Mar 11, 2024•20 min•Ep. 724
As serious economic weakness begins to increasingly show itself, the Fed is going to pivot and thereby try to sell the public on lower rates as somehow being something positive. A small bit of economy insurance and nothing more. And they'll point to 1995 as for why. In reality, this is already nothing like thirty years ago. Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Mar 11, 2024•18 min•Ep. 723
Evidence for US recession and labor market woes are getting much stronger. While everyone fixates on the growing absurdity of the payroll revisions, the CPS data threw up THREE very strong recession signals, each historically validated, showing this isn't a short-term fluctuation or narrow, isolated occurrence. Plus, a fourth signal that is entire consistent with those other three. Employment recession changes everything. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar....
Mar 10, 2024•20 min•Ep. 722
Full Disclosure: Jeff has worked with Mr. Saxe as a trustee for a stablecoin project Ryne is the COO for. The mainstream image of cryptocurrencies is cowboys and charlatans playing around with technology that doesn't seem to have any practical use. Kids are getting rich - many going broke - on what can appear to be trivial functions. Reality couldn't be farther from the truth. As Ryne points out, one key problem is that those who are indeed making a good-faith effort at making something and maki...
Mar 09, 2024•27 min•Ep. 721
China's 10-year government bond yield just reached a 20-year low. UST yields are moving down again. What does it all mean; more importantly why do we need to care? It isn't just the signal bond curves provide, it is just as much the lack of direct access to the information we truly need. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis FOMC Transcript February 1999 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19990203meeting.pdf BIS CGFS Papers No 65 US dollar funding: an internatio...
Mar 08, 2024•20 min•Ep. 720
Evidence continues to show we're in half a recession already. There is a huge discrepancy between the "strong" US employment in the media and what's actually happening. Even mainstream sources are being forced to deal with how different the jobs market is to those actually experiencing it. These aren't isolated cases or stories, the data backing them up continues to pile up. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis CNBC Economists say the labor market is strong — but job seekers don’t ...
Mar 07, 2024•18 min•Ep. 719
Gold is high but not on Waller. Fed Governor Chris Waller seems to have sparked the most recent jump in the metal, with people jumping all over their inference of some incoming Reverse Operation Twist. Untangling the fedspeak from so many huge misconceptions about gold - it is a TERRIBLE inflation hedge, as you'll see - in order to make sense of another legit red flag. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis FRB Christopher Waller Thoughts on Quantitative Tightening, Including Remarks...
Mar 06, 2024•19 min•Ep. 718
It's bad enough that China's shakiest real estate firms are going to be creating big losses and not just for other Chinese financials. Now comes word the last remaining investment grade developer is rumored to be experiencing liquidity trouble, too. It is a sign of further progress - in the wrong direction. We need to understand what it means when Beijing is this impotent. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Mar 05, 2024•20 min•Ep. 717
Digital technology is revolutionizing every aspect of our lives, now including money. The first in a three-part series as Jeff travels to ETH Denver, the world's preeminent Ethereum conference, to start digging in to digital with those who are actually doing it, the insiders. Up first, world-renowned scholar, investor and, yes, philosopher-historian Manny Rincon Cruz. Eurodollar University's conversations w/Manny Rincon Cruz
Mar 05, 2024•57 min•Ep. 716
Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Mar 05, 2024•19 min•Ep. 715
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis AP US national debt hits record $34 trillion as Congress gears up for funding fight https://apnews.com/article/national-debt-deficits-biden-economy-inflation-record-b4258704f830c7f6e9c5e693748216cb Milton Friedman Newsweek “Deficits and Inflation" https://miltonfriedman.hoover.org/internal/media/dispatcher/214251/full https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Mar 02, 2024•21 min•Ep. 714
Unlike most terms thrown around Economics, 'globally synchronized' is no joke. It also isn't a recent development. Throughout modern history, when a sizable portion of the world starts to show contraction it will spread throughout the rest with very few spared. It is a poignant reminder given how the same is happening right now. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis BoJ New Procedures for Money Market Operations and Monetary Easing Mar 19, 2001 https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/...
Feb 29, 2024•18 min•Ep. 713
To get the rest of the Lyn Alden, George Gammon conversation and a whole lot more, become a Eurodollar University member or DDA subscriber. You can find the information about those here: https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1 Japan is in recession, one that is getting worse. Japanese officials tell you not to believe your lying eyes, inflation is the greatest risk. All the data conclusively shows it is not, that Japan's contraction is a product of global forces that just so happen to be ...
Feb 28, 2024•20 min•Ep. 712
To get the rest of the Lyn Alden, George Gammon conversation and a whole lot more, become a Eurodollar University member or DDA subscriber. You can find the information about those here: https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1 How accurate are market tools like spreads? If you're looking for absolute precision, you're in the wrong business. These measures are highly useful for broad purposes. Unfortunately, history shows those point in the direction of serious general economic misadventur...
Feb 27, 2024•19 min•Ep. 711
To get the rest of this conversation and a whole lot more, become a Eurodollar University member or DDA subscriber. You can find the information about those here: https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1 Eurodollar University's conversations, Guests Lyn Alden & George Gammon https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU #lynalden
Feb 26, 2024•40 min•Ep. 710
The Federal Reserve "prints" bank reserves, that's it. To understand why that matters, you have to understand where bank reserves came from and what they were and are intended for. It isn't at all what you think. But don't take my word for it; that comes straight from the Fed itself. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis FRB Atlanta The Evolution of the Check as a Means of Payment: A Historical Survey, November 2008 https://www.atlantafed.org/-/media/documents/research/publications/...
Feb 25, 2024•19 min•Ep. 709
If you happened to miss today's Webinar on CRE and the possible dangers from it, you can still watch the replay. Follow the link below. https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/23/1ym21crukhgh4 The FOMC's minutes for its January meeting shed light on the dilemma currently hitting policymakers. They're seeming embrace of the lower rates from last bond rally was no fluke. They instead share our growing and NOTABLE concerns over possible substantial fallout from CRE. However, they also can't help the...
Feb 23, 2024•20 min•Ep. 708
Another rash of layoffs is sweeping the US economy and its labor market. Only this time, unlike last year, the background behind them is far more concerning and even dangerous (economically, speaking). Those threatened by being thrown out of work know the score isn't entirely made up from those job cuts. It's actually the grim reality of no hiring. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis CNBC Worries grow over a K-shaped economic recovery that favors the wealthy https://www.cnbc.com/2...
Feb 22, 2024•21 min•Ep. 707
If you happened to miss today's Webinar on CRE and the possible dangers from it, you can still watch the replay. Follow the link below. https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/23/1ym21crukhgh4 Chinese "banks" opted for an unusually large cut to China's benchmark 5-year Loan Prime Rate. In truth, that appears at the behest of Beijing where authorities are becoming increasingly desperate. Nothing they are doing is working - and Chinese banks know it. China has a growing bank problem on its hands be...
Feb 21, 2024•18 min•Ep. 706
If you happened to miss today's Webinar on CRE and the possible dangers from it, you can still watch the replay. Follow the link below. https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/Eurodollarwebinar As more countries around the world "unexpectedly" succumb to recession, the consequences aren't strictly economic. While globally synchronized means many more will follow, the costs need to be accounted for in human terms. Why does it feel like half the planet is on the move? It's the economy, stupid. Eurodo...
Feb 20, 2024•18 min•Ep. 705
There are just a few more spaces left to sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details: https://www.eurodollar.university It's a recession rash. Economic growth expectations slashed, "unexpectedly", of course. Technical recessions spreading around the world's major economies because real ones are. Yet, still the idea of a US decoupling persists resting largely on a few past-tense stats and, most of all, equity investors. Eurodollar University's con...
Feb 19, 2024•20 min•Ep. 704
Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details: https://www.eurodollar.university There are a lot of parallels now and the 1970s - and inflation isn't actually one of them. The whole world saw recession coming in 1979, even that vast majority of those on the FOMC. Except, there was no recession in '79. It's what leads up to contraction that matters, not when it finally gets noticed. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https:/...
Feb 18, 2024•19 min•Ep. 703
Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details: https://www.eurodollar.university This is getting out of hand. Not only is it a major risk and not just to those "invested" in equities, there are several deeply troubling reasons to care why several major economy stock indexes are setting new highs while the economies allegedly tied to them suffer substantial now-recognized recessions. This isn't going to end well. Eurodollar University's Money & ...
Feb 16, 2024•19 min•Ep. 702
Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details: https://www.eurodollar.university Stocks keep hitting new highs yet one of those markets which is doing just that also proves that it can't be because of the economy. This one leaves little doubt especially as so many other markets pile on with their views (not even talking bonds here). Stocks are buying a 'liquidity' story, not actual real world fundamentals. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro ...
Feb 15, 2024•19 min•Ep. 701
Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details: https://www.eurodollar.university No one remembers the "red hot" and "sticky" supply shock of 2010 and 2011 BECAUSE it was, yes, transitory. The Fed didn't need to raise rates or do anything. In fact, the FOMC was busy with more "accommodating" policies like Operation Twist and then two more QEs, yet consumer prices disinflate-d anyway. Outside of one artificial piece of the CPI, the January 2024 versi...
Feb 14, 2024•19 min•Ep. 700
Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details: https://www.eurodollar.university China's yuan has been constantly put forward as a contender to 'dethrone' the dollar. Whatever sliver of a tiny chance it may have had before, it's zero now. The greater challenge is how to replace the existing reserve regime which does need an update. But that means eurodollar NOT dollar. This is not a trivial distinction; it is, in fact, everything. Eurodollar Univer...
Feb 13, 2024•20 min•Ep. 699
To get the rest of the conversation, become a Eurodollar University member and/or DDA subscriber. We've got unadvertised sales available that will allow you access to all the EDU content, including the the full hour-plus with Ken here: https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1 Eurodollar University's conversations w/Ken McElroy https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Feb 12, 2024•28 min•Ep. 698
