Full interview with Mr. Milkshake, Brent Johnson, on eurodollar (not dollar) dominance: https://funnel.eurodollar.university/dollar While many cheered another payroll number, in reality the labor data were a complete trainwreck. The Household Survey's measure of employment plunged and full-time jobs crashed by an almost record amount during December. What's the meaning behind this bevy of increasingly grim numbers? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/J...
Jan 07, 2024•19 min•Ep. 667
Payrolls are positive. The unemployment rate is incredibly low. Stocks are soaring. What recession? Furthermore, we've been talking about one for so long it is more than understandable why people have tuned it out. But how could we know the recession call is wrong? It isn't just the continued lack of layoffs. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU https://www.eurodollar.university RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 #recession #...
Jan 05, 2024•20 min•Ep. 666
The level of hiring in the US has collapsed in a way we haven't seen since 2008 and 2009 (outside the pandemic lockdowns). JOLTS survey results show the largest 6-month decline in hiring of any same-sized period over the entire 21st century (ex. '20). The labor market is more than halfway into recession; but what about that other half? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU https://www.eurodollar.university RealClearMarkets Essays: https://...
Jan 04, 2024•19 min•Ep. 665
China's 'president' Xi Jinping made a startling admission in his New Year address. For the first time he said the economy struggled last year. The confession merely underscores the difficulties the country is currently facing and has so far been unable to surmount. But why? As more data pours in, we see how the answer to that question isn't actually Chinese. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Full text of President Xi Jinping's 2024 New Year message https://english.news.cn/202312...
Jan 03, 2024•19 min•Ep. 664
For quite a while there, you couldn't go long without hearing about how the 2020s were about to repeat the 1970s. That was never any real risk, but why? What is inflation? Where does it actually come from (spoiler: not the Fed)? Most important of all, how can we tell? The answer to all those questions are painfully clear, but once more Economics has the public thinking only backwards. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU https://www.eurod...
Jan 02, 2024•22 min•Ep. 663
Last Chance for Christmas Sale https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1 What's the difference between financial and monetary crisis? Everything. Whether anyone knows it or not, we continue to live in the long shadows of 2008. They are deflationary more than anything, too, a Silent Depression that so long as we remain stuck in it will make the 2020s into something more like the 2010s. That's not good. Getting out starts with finally a proper accounting of 15 years ago. Eurodollar University...
Dec 31, 2023•22 min•Ep. 662
Bond yields have plunged and not just US Treasuries. Yet, stocks are sitting at or above all-time highs. In fact, the two seem to be related at least in the short run. The bond rally began in late October and the stock surge followed a week later. But what bonds are suggesting wouldn't be good for stocks. So, what are stocks really doing? Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
Dec 30, 2023•18 min•Ep. 661
Only a few days left for EDU's Christmas Sale, memberships, and research subscriptions. https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1 What happens when the Fed really pivots and starts cutting rates? We know what's supposed to happen, though it never does. Before we get into the history of rate cut programs, we first have to understand why "monetary" policy targets interest rates in the first place. Once we do that it's easy to see why rate cuts are all hype. Eurodollar University's Money &...
Dec 29, 2023•20 min•Ep. 660
Does any of this stuff matter? If you stand back and look at this year, all of these weird financial indications may not have appeared to make any difference. The US economy, in particular, seems just fine if not better than fine. They haven't been any more bank failures. Yet, bond yields are crashing here, which is not something to ignore. What we're doing with Euro$ data is trying to assess the health of the monetary system to see if there might indeed be "something" there. Eurodollar Universi...
Dec 28, 2023•19 min•Ep. 659
Still time left for EDU's Christmas Sale, memberships and research subscriptions. https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1 In a very important and very real sense, the Fed has already pivoted by embracing the recent and sharp decline in market interest rates. Why? In a word, insurance. Along with other crucial concerns, officials are no longer so sure the soft landing is on track. Since central bankers and Economists believe lower rates are "accommodative", they believe a pivot could help ...
Dec 27, 2023•19 min•Ep. 658
The conversation with Brent Johnson on eurodollar dominance https://funnel.eurodollar.university/dollar Christmas Sale at EDU https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1 When the dollar goes up it is one of the simplest yet most critical warning signs in all finance. Most people are told it is because of the Fed and its rate policies. The last couple years have made it appear like that's actually the case. Instead, the evidence conclusively shows the real culprit behind the dollar's movements...
Dec 22, 2023•20 min•Ep. 657
Christmas Sale at EDU https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1 Whether they want to admit it now or not, Jay Powell completely changed his tune in a matter of less than two weeks. What's more, another major central bank seems to have done the same thing and during the same two week timeframe. What the hell is going on changing all these hawks not to doves but increasingly chickens? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis CNBC The Bank of Japan just shocked markets with a policy ...
Dec 21, 2023•20 min•Ep. 656
Christmas Sale at EDU https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1 There are several reasons why suddenly the Fed has apparently accepted market rates going sharply lower. The soft landing scenario might be in greater jeopardy than recent data indicates - or it might more likely come from outside the US. Our focus here, however, is on the financial. What if conditions in the CRE market we all know is going to be a huge problem have started to come to a head? If so, that would get the FOMC's at...
Dec 20, 2023•18 min•Ep. 655
Christmas Sale at EDU https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1 What's the difference between a dollar short and a dollar shortage? The one actually comes from the needs of the other. To understand them both, you have to consider what a reserve currency really is - and what it is not- and how it is supposed to do its job. We're left considering only a range of bad options given those constraints. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU ...
Dec 19, 2023•19 min•Ep. 654
Why is the Fed pivoting? More importantly, why now? We have to consider a couple of options since central bank officials are privy to more data than we have. Not that they know what to do with it, but if there's something they see perhaps we don't yet it's worth figuring it out ahead of time. After all, with rates plunging markets are in a rush to get somewhere already. Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU https://www.eurodollar.univ...
Dec 18, 2023•19 min•Ep. 653
China's growing economy and financial turmoil may seem like a world away, but it's closer than you might think. After all, bond yields aren't just plunging around the globe solely because the US may or may not end up in recession. There are far greater and more immediate concerns elsewhere right now, starting with the Chinese. What happens there matters everywhere, too. Even Economists like Paul Krugman have had to come to terms with that. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis X (tw...
Dec 17, 2023•20 min•Ep. 652
If you are interested, we are having a holiday sale. You can check it out here: https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1 The FOMC and its dots. Stocks took them one way, bonds another. After pounding higher-for-longer all year, suddenly officials just gave up on it like nothing. That's a bit curious already. We need to understand what lower rates really mean, both in the marketplace and why the Federal Reserve (and others) are suddenly in agreement with bonds. Eurodollar University's Money...
Dec 15, 2023•18 min•Ep. 651
Is the bond market wrong? Has it been wrong in the past? How useful are these esoteric indications and curves? Do they actually corroborate with anything in reality? On the day when the Fed meets and all eyes are on interest rates, let's go through an example where it looked like the markets got it all wrong but in reality they got every last bit right. What curves were really telling us then, and what that can tell us about today. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg: Tr...
Dec 14, 2023•19 min•Ep. 650
New multi-month low in oil, multi-year low in gasoline. Big turn into more contango for WTI futures. Energy sector completely overshadows US CPI for November even as energy prices are one key reason for the heavy disinflation in it. We need only look back to last year and wonder how we got to be in the same place all over again. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis OPEC Statement November 30, 2023 https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/7267.htm S&P Global Commodity Insight...
Dec 13, 2023•19 min•Ep. 649
What's bothering bonds? Several key issues starting with how everything about China is going wrong right now. The country just reported a sizable acceleration in deflation, both consumer and producer, on top of increasing problems in its money markets like repo. With those developing against a backdrop of failed stimulus, Moody's has chimed in with downgrades to its outlook for the country, for its biggest banks, even several crucial regions. Basically, it's a mess but one that is globally synch...
Dec 12, 2023•17 min•Ep. 648
If you want to check out the full video, visit Eurodollar University: https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page Take advantage of this exclusive offer! The bond market scares many away as it’s full of jargon and technicalities, but that ends today with Alf’s Bond Market Course. And Alf throws in a juicy 20% OFF discount just for Eurodollar University listeners! The first 50 buyers can get 20% OFF by using the discount code ''JEFF'' at checkout: Here is the link - hurry up: https://themacrocom...
Dec 11, 2023•26 min•Ep. 647
November payrolls beat expectations yet again as the cycle stretches farther. Even so, the labor market is exhibiting telltale signs of recession anyway - not that it will matter to the soft landing narrative. Industries accounting for half of all private US jobs are cutting them. Contraction is widespread already, just not widespread enough to be accepted more broadly. The way things are going, and the way markets are pricing, still just a matter of time. Eurodollar University's Money & Mac...
Dec 10, 2023•18 min•Ep. 646
Bonds are screaming bloody murder. By contrast, stocks are taking everything in stride, betting more strongly on disinflation, soft landing, a few rate cuts, every possible Goldilocks angle. Or so it would seem. What do equities really price? Not fundamentals like "liquidity" as is so often claimed nor the economy. Valuations are a fiction. History shows us where the heart of the NYSE really lies, which means there is substantial risk diverging from bonds. Eurodollar University's Money & Mac...
Dec 08, 2023•21 min•Ep. 645
Oil prices down big again. A lot more contango, too. Bond buying remains heavy and while not quite to the bull steepening it's moving in on that key point. All signs point to lower rates ahead, but isn't that a good thing? That's what we're supposed to believe... Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Ben Bernanke: Before the Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Congress April 2008 https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/bernanke20080402a.htm CNBC: Bernanke Says US Could Be Fac...
Dec 07, 2023•20 min•Ep. 644
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #fed #federalreserve More big moves in the markets including key financial numbers. It is increasingly looking like we've reached the point of non-linearity for both the monetary system as well as the real economy. While waiting for labor market confirmation in the US about what's already happened, interest rate swaps are pricing ahead and like forward rate hed...
Dec 06, 2023•19 min•Ep. 643
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #fed #federalreserve #europe Wild trading last week wasn't just about recession worries, there was quite a bit of fear pushed into curves particularly forward curves and especially those in Europe. By Friday, the moves were astounding, the sort of swings last seen clustered around March and April. First, a review of what happened and then some analysis as to wh...
Dec 05, 2023•19 min•Ep. 642
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #fed #federalreserve Recent Federal Reserve report claims at least half the country is already in recession, while another substantial portion likely is. Not only does that match softening rhetoric from policymakers, obviously there's been a radical change in markets, too. Eurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van Metre Federal Reserve Beige Book ...
Dec 04, 2023•19 min•Ep. 641
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #government #governmentdebt #debt Governments are out of control. This insanity can't go on much longer, can it? Understanding how it came to be this way, and why, that's the key to answering that question. Blackmail and myths. The problem isn't really govt debt, it's what the debt is being used to (try and) cover up. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSn...
Dec 03, 2023•20 min•Ep. 640
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #china The more the Chinese government does, the worse you know it must be. China's government is doing even more. That simple rule applies to the global economy since conditions there are a reflection of how it's going around the world. Despite expectations the country has "turned a corner", the data keeps showing just the opposite. Globally synchronized and not in a good way. Eurodollar Univ...
Dec 01, 2023•18 min•Ep. 639
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #banking #liquidity #lending #credit #europe #japan Interest rates all over the world are dropping, fast. Economic fundamentals are being repriced in global bonds - hard - now that the September effect has fully dissipated and - this is the important part - the world is more and more confirmed in its ugliness. So much so, even a former Fed hawk has to admit something has changed. Just wait unt...
Nov 30, 2023•17 min•Ep. 638
