Capital Preservation First

Monday, May 18, 2026. WTI $100.65-$102, bullish bias intact, uptrend continues. Price above 20/50-day MAs, Strong Buy on daily/weekly, RSI 53-54 (neutral-positive, not overbought). Support $97-$98, $95, $93. Resistance $103-$105, $107-$108, $110-$114. Ascending triangle pattern suggests upside continuation if $100-$102 holds. Geopolitical: Negotiations active but deadlocked, Iran rejected latest US proposal (Trump called "totally unacceptable"), US wants 20-year suspension or 12-15-year moratorium on high-level uranium enrichment, Iran wants enrichment rights/full sanctions relief/Strait control. Project Freedom paused, blockade remains active, minor clashes May 7, Iran conducted attacks in UAE early May, Trump warned of "different route" if talks fail, military options on table. Henry Hub $2.82 (May 11), trading low-to-mid $2.80s, June futures $2.82-$2.96, July $3.04-$3.12, storage ample, weather mild, prices stable. Crude in uptrend, geopolitical premium real, escalation scenario crude $120-150, deal scenario crude $70-80. Gas decoupled, accumulation zone intact, target $4.00+. Capital preservation first.