Monday, June 22, 2026. WEEK 26 OPENS. The deal is done. The Strait of Hormuz is open. Crude is at $75.60-$75.70. CRUDE OIL: WTI July futures trading $75.60-$75.70 (Jun 22), down 2.1-2.2% from prior session. Recent closes: Jun 21 $75.67, Jun 18 $76.60, Jun 17 $76.79, Jun 16 $76.05, Jun 15 $80.75, Jun 12 $84.88, Jun 11 $87.71. Month-to-date down 19%. YTD up 10%. SETUP: Prices snapping lower after earlier volatility. Stronger dollar headwind. Prediction markets trading near $76 with potential upsid...
Jun 22, 2026•2 min•Ep. 211
Thursday, June 18, 2026. CRUDE OIL: WTI July futures trading $75.09-$75.53 (Jun 18), down 1.6-2.2% from prior session (previous close ~$76.79). Intraday traded near $76 earlier, extended losses to $74.97-$75.62. Brent crude below $78/barrel. DRIVER: US-Iran peace deal easing supply disruption fears. CONTEXT: Prices erased most conflict-driven gains. Month-to-date declines exceeding 27% in some measures. DEAL SIGNING TOMORROW: Friday, Jun 19, 2026, Switzerland (Geneva/Bürgenstock resort). Facilit...
Jun 18, 2026•3 min•Ep. 210
Wednesday, June 17, 2026. CRUDE OIL: WTI July futures settled ~$75.39 (Jun 16), live quotes Jun 17 showing $76.30-$76.48. Fade trade accelerating. DEAL STATUS: Preliminary MOU reached Jun 14-15. Virtual signing reported. Formal signing ceremony Friday, Jun 19, Geneva. DEAL TERMS: 60-day ceasefire extension. Strait of Hormuz reopening, toll-free period expected. US naval blockade on Iranian ports lifted. Nuclear talks deferred to follow-up. IMPLICATION: Crude crashed from $90-$100 highs earlier J...
Jun 17, 2026•3 min•Ep. 209
Tuesday, June 16, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI trading $80.58-$81.58 range. Open ~$80.96, High $81.53, Low $80.86. Sharp drop from prior days (Jun 12 high ~$87). SETUP: Crude in free fall. Geopolitical premium gone. Watching technical support levels. KEY SUPPORT: $80.24-$80.55 (Classic/Fibonacci S3/S2 pivots, near-term daily support). $82.67 (key near-term support). $85 (major psychological/support zone, floor in June outlooks). $74-$75 (longer-term Fibonacci-based support, 61.8% retracement,...
Jun 16, 2026•3 min•Ep. 208
Monday, June 15, 2026. WEEK 25 OPENS. The deal is done or nearly done. Strait of Hormuz about to reopen. CRUDE OIL: WTI July futures $80.07-$80.77, down 4.8-5.7% on day. Intraday range $80.00-$82.42. Previous close ~$84.88. Earlier in week: $92-$93 (Jun 11), $86-$87 (Jun 12). CATALYST: Geopolitical risk premium evaporating. US and Iran close to finalizing MOU. Both sides agreed on text. Signing could happen in coming days. DEAL TERMS: Strait of Hormuz reopens immediately, no tolls on passage, pr...
Jun 15, 2026•3 min•Ep. 207
Friday, June 12, 2026. PERU ENERGY MARKET: South America's first LNG exporter and modest but strategic global natural gas player. NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION: 2025: 14,769.6 million cubic meters (up from 14,480 in 2024). Primary source: Camisea fields (Blocks 88 & 56). Production stable but constrained by feedgas availability and field maturity. LNG EXPORTS: Peru LNG terminal (Pampa Melchorita): 4.5 mtpa capacity, operating since 2010. 2025 exports: 5,293.6 million cubic meters (up from 5,090 in ...
Jun 12, 2026•3 min•Ep. 206
Thursday, June 11, 2026. MADAGASCAR ENERGY MARKET: Sits on massive untapped oil reserves but remains net importer with minimal commercial production. OIL RESERVES: Total potential ~20 billion barrels of oil in place/resources. Tsimiroro field (Madagascar Oil, Block 3104): 1.7-2 billion barrels heavy oil, 25-year development license (2015), pilot/production since ~2013. Bemolanga field: 16.6 billion barrels ultra-heavy oil/bitumen (~9.8 billion recoverable), one of world's largest undeveloped bit...
Jun 11, 2026•3 min•Ep. 205
Wednesday, June 10, 2026. CRUDE OIL: WTI trading $88.20-$89.34 range, high near $90, low near $88.28. Earlier in week spiked to $95.47 on Iran tensions, retraced $4+ as tensions eased. YTD gains ~55-58%. Futures curve backwardation amid supply concerns. Geopolitical volatility dominant driver. Setup: Crude range-bound, waiting for Strait clarity. If negotiations succeed and Strait reopens, crude crashes. If talks fail and conflict escalates, crude spikes. Market pricing stalemate with occasional...
Jun 10, 2026•3 min•Ep. 204
Tuesday, June 9, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI trading $88-$91 range. Consolidation pattern intact. Pivot $90.89. Support: $90.68 (S1), $90.39 (S2), $90.18 (S3), $88.70, $87.30, $85.09. Resistance: $91.18 (R1), $91.39 (R2), $91.68 (R3), $92.50, $93.50, $94.99. Speculative range $83-$93, broader June range $71.73-$106.74. Consolidation likely without clear breakout. Tests of $85-$88 supports or $93-$97 resistances depend on news (inventories, geopolitics, Strait). Technical bias: short-term neu...
Jun 09, 2026•3 min•Ep. 203
Monday, June 8, 2026. WTI crude oil trading $90-$92.50/bbl. July 2026 futures near $90. Prediction markets show 87% probability WTI moves below $90 this week. 94% odds closes above $88 on June 8. War premium fading. Geopolitical risk pricing out. CRUDE OIL: WTI at $90.50, down from $91-$92 range last week. Volatility compressing. Range-bound trading. EIA forecasts WTI around $106 in May/June 2026 amid inventory draws. Longer-term decline projected toward $89 in Q4 2026. Analysts revised 2026 ave...
Jun 08, 2026•3 min•Ep. 202
Friday, June 6, 2026. ONE YEAR AGO. June 5, 2025. WTI crude oil approximately $62.77/bbl. Brent crude oil approximately $64.88/bbl. Futures settlement data shows open $64.91, high $65.86, low $64.63, close settle $65.34/bbl. Natural gas NYMEX front-month futures approximately $3.677/MMBtu. Daily range $3.62-$3.79. Henry Hub spot pricing softer. Next-day cash around $2.76-$2.85/MMBtu. BROADER CONTEXT: Oil prices range-bound/softening amid rising inventories, OPEC+ production adjustments, subdued ...
Jun 05, 2026•3 min•Ep. 201
Thursday, June 5, 2026. SOUTH KOREA. One of world's most import-dependent energy economies. Relies on foreign sources 90-95% of energy needs. Primarily crude oil and LNG. Negligible domestic fossil fuel production. No international oil/gas pipelines. Depends entirely on maritime tanker shipments. Creates structural vulnerabilities to geopolitical disruptions, chokepoints, supply shocks. CRUDE OIL IMPORTS: Just under 2.6 million barrels/day. Ranks among top global importers. Roughly 60%+ from Mid...
Jun 04, 2026•2 min•Ep. 200
Wednesday, June 4, 2026. TWENTY YEARS AGO. June 2006. WTI crude oil monthly average: $73.94/bbl. Specific WTI closing prices: June 2 $72.75, June 9 $71.64, June 16 $69.97, June 23 $70.78, June 29 $73.52. WTI stayed above $70/bbl for much of May-July 2006. Demand growth outpacing non-OPEC supply. OPEC Reference Basket May 2006 averaged $65.11/bbl, peaked $68.37 early month, volatile trading continued into June. NATURAL GAS: Henry Hub natural gas monthly average end June 2006 approximately $5.84/M...
Jun 03, 2026•3 min•Ep. 199
Tuesday, June 2, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI trading $91.30-$91.33, down ~0.9% on day. Session range ~$91.30-$92.64. KEY LEVELS: Support $91.17 (below that $91.33, below that $91.55), Resistance $91.93 (above that $92.09, above that $92.31). TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Investing.com technical summary Strong Sell overall. Moving averages show Sell (short-term MAs 5/10/20 periods signaling sell, MA50/100 buy, MA200 sell). Technical indicators Strong Sell (STOCH sell, CCI sell, ROC sell, RSI neutral ~4...
Jun 02, 2026•2 min•Ep. 198
Monday, June 1, 2026. CRUDE OIL: WTI opened week $88.50-$89.44, up from Friday's close. Day's range: Low $88.45-$89.17, High $91.25-$94.74. Intraday volatility, prices rising toward $90-$94 range. SETUP: Crude consolidating after May pullback. Geopolitical risk premium still elevated. But negotiations breaking down. Iran halted negotiations with US on June 1, vowed to completely block Strait of Hormuz, citing ceasefire violations and other issues. Major development: If Iran closes Strait, crude ...
Jun 01, 2026•3 min•Ep. 197
Friday, May 29, 2026. AZERBAIJAN. THE CASPIAN ENERGY POWERHOUSE. Azerbaijan sits on western shore of Caspian Sea, one of world's most energy-rich regions. Oil and natural gas reserves massive, geopolitically contested. OIL PRODUCTION: Produces ~800,000 barrels per day, mostly from offshore Caspian fields. Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli (ACG) field is crown jewel, capacity 600,000 barrels per day. Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline exports Azerbaijani crude to Mediterranean, capacity 1 million barrels per...
May 29, 2026•3 min•Ep. 196
Thursday, May 28, 2026. POLAND. ENERGY CROSSROADS OF EUROPE. Poland sits at intersection of Russian energy and Western European demand. Critical chokepoint for natural gas and oil flowing west. NATURAL GAS INFRASTRUCTURE: Yamal-Europe pipeline receives Russian natural gas, capacity 33 billion cubic meters per year, but geopolitical tensions have disrupted flows multiple times. Baltic Pipe (completed 2022) brings Norwegian gas from Denmark, capacity 10 billion cubic meters per year, strategic alt...
May 28, 2026•3 min•Ep. 195
Wednesday, May 27, 2026. CRUDE OIL: WTI closed $92.51, down from open $93.88-$93.90. Day range $89.41-$93.90. Pulled back from earlier May highs near $107-$108 on profit-taking, inventory data, holiday caution. Futures curve steep backwardation: distant 2026 contracts $30-40 below near-term, signaling expected short-term tightness followed by relief as production recovers. EIA outlook: Global inventories falling sharply Q2 2026, supporting Brent ~$106/bbl May-June before easing later in year. WT...
May 27, 2026•3 min•Ep. 194
Monday, May 25, 2026. CRUDE OIL: WTI opened week at $92.04, down 4.72% from Friday's close of $96.60. Drop driven by negotiations advancing toward potential short-term agreement on Strait of Hormuz reopening. Week recap: May 22 open $98, close $96.60; May 21 open $98.95, close $96.35; May 20 open $104.12, close $98.26; May 24 close $92.13. Trend clear: crude pricing in de-escalation. Trump stated agreement "has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization," explicitly linking it to Strait re...
May 25, 2026•3 min•Ep. 192
Friday, May 22, 2026. CRUDE OIL RECAP: Mon $108.66 (+3%), Tue $107.77 (-0.82%), Wed $98.26 (-8.82% sharp drop on peace deal progress), Thu $97.73 (-0.54%), Fri $98.30 (+0.58%). Weekly range $96-$109, volatile mid-week plunge followed by partial recovery. Crude tumbled May 20 on reports of progress toward US-Iran peace deal that could reopen Strait of Hormuz; prices stabilized as negotiations remained fluid. Technical: Rebound from April lows near $79, golden cross forming on longer-term moving a...
May 22, 2026•3 min•Ep. 191
Thursday, May 21, 2026. CRUDE OIL: EIA report (May 20, week ending May 15) bullish. U.S. commercial crude inventories fell 7.86M barrels to 445M barrels (2% below five-year average). Refinery crude inputs averaged 16.3M b/d (down 80K b/d from prior week), utilization 91.6% of operable capacity. Motor gasoline inventories down 1.5M barrels (5% below five-year average). Distillate fuel inventories up 0.4M barrels (9% below five-year average). Total commercial petroleum inventories declined 9M barr...
May 21, 2026•3 min•Ep. 190
Wednesday, May 20, 2026. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report drops 10:30 AM ET, covering week ended May 15. Previous report (May 13): U.S. commercial crude inventories fell 4.306M barrels to 452.9M barrels for week ended May 8, exceeding analyst forecasts of ~2.0-2.1M barrel draw (bullish signal, tighter supplies). EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook projects large global oil inventory draws averaging 8.5M barrels/day in Q2 2026 due to Middle East supply disruptions. If today's report shows another dra...
May 20, 2026•3 min•Ep. 189
Tuesday, May 19, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI $102.35-$102.66, bullish momentum intact. RSI 51.27 (neutral, neither overbought nor oversold, room to run). MACD -0.08 (sell signal, mild bearish momentum but broader trend up). STOCHRSI 69 (Buy), Williams %R -35.78 (Buy), Ultimate Oscillator 59.29 (Buy). Overall: Strong Buy. Moving Averages: Most short-term (5/10/20-day) in Buy territory, 50-day mixed. Support: $97-$98 (former resistance, now support on dips), $95, $93.60 (short-term bearish thr...
May 19, 2026•3 min•Ep. 188
Monday, May 18, 2026. WTI $100.65-$102, bullish bias intact, uptrend continues. Price above 20/50-day MAs, Strong Buy on daily/weekly, RSI 53-54 (neutral-positive, not overbought). Support $97-$98, $95, $93. Resistance $103-$105, $107-$108, $110-$114. Ascending triangle pattern suggests upside continuation if $100-$102 holds. Geopolitical: Negotiations active but deadlocked, Iran rejected latest US proposal (Trump called "totally unacceptable"), US wants 20-year suspension or 12-15-year moratori...
May 18, 2026•3 min•Ep. 187
Friday, May 15, 2026. WEEK 20 RECAP: WTI $97.01 → $100.37 peak → $101.56-$101.68 close. Strong Buy across MAs. Henry Hub $2.847-$2.96, Strong Buy bias. EIA: Crude -2.3M, gasoline -2.5M, distillate -1.3M (tight). Gas storage +63 Bcf (surplus building). Demand strong, refinery utilization 90.1%, LNG exports running. Geopolitical: Negotiations stalled, Iran rejected US proposal, Trump considering reviving Project Freedom, security team met to discuss options, ceasefire on life support. Escalation s...
May 15, 2026•4 min•Ep. 186
Thursday, May 14, 2026. EIA Natural Gas Storage Report released 10:30 AM ET (week ending May 8). Henry Hub $2.74 (up from $2.66). Consensus forecast +86 Bcf injection, projected inventory ~2,291 Bcf. Latest (week ending May 1): 2,205 Bcf (+63 Bcf), +75 Bcf YoY, +139 Bcf vs. 5-yr avg. Storage in surplus, injection season ongoing, ample inventories pressuring prices. Demand strong, refinery utilization high, LNG exports running. WTI $101.56-$101.68, Strong Buy across MAs (11 Buy signals), RSI 52.6...
May 14, 2026•3 min•Ep. 185
Wednesday, May 13, 2026. EIA Petroleum Report released 10:30 AM ET (week ending May 8). WTI $101-$110 range. Last week $109.76, prior $105.38. Crude inventories (week ending May 1): -2.3M to 457.2M (1% above 5-yr avg). Refinery inputs 16.0 Mbpd, utilization 90.1%. Gasoline -2.5M (below avg), distillate -1.3M (11% below avg). Tight data, strong demand. Henry Hub $2.917, storage 2,205 Bcf (+63 Bcf), +3.5% YoY, +6.7% vs. 5-yr avg. EIA expects $3.10 Q2/Q3. Geopolitical: US-Iran far apart, Trump reje...
May 13, 2026•3 min•Ep. 184
Tuesday, May 12, 2026. WTI $97.01-$98.25, recent high $100.37. Mixed signals: Investing.com Strong Sell vs. CSFX bullish D1 (price above EMA20/50/200, RSI 54.29). RSI(14) 45.70 (neutral), STOCH 34.42 (sell), MACD 0.42 (buy), Williams %R -90 (oversold). Resistance $98.97/$99.87/$101.04, support $96.90/$95.73/$94.83. CSFX trade: buy $97-99, SL $93.50, TP1 $104, TP2 $108-110. ATR 1.01 (high volatility). Henry Hub $2.847 (+5-6%), spot $2.91, June $2.817 (+2.18%). Strong Buy bias: all 12 MAs buy, 8/9...
May 12, 2026•3 min•Ep. 183
Monday, May 11, 2026. BREAKING: Project Freedom paused after 24 hours. Iran claims disabled 4 US vessels (US denies). Trump pitching "Project Freedom Plus" — full expansion to reopen strait if no deal soon. Ball in Tehran's court. WTI $98.38 (EIA May 7), range $95-$101, June futures $95.42 (+0.64%). Henry Hub spot $2.67, Markets Insider $2.83, June futures $2.750 (-0.69%). EIA: commercial crude -2.3M to 457.2M (1% above 5-yr avg), gasoline -2.5M (4% below avg), distillate -1.3M (11% below avg). ...
May 11, 2026•3 min•Ep. 183
Friday, May 8, 2026. Kazakhstan is Central Asia's energy powerhouse. 9th largest oil producer globally. April 2026: 1.93M bbl/d, up month-on-month. Oil/gas condensate output +16% MoM. 2026 target: 100.5M tons, but CPC pipeline issues may cause shortfall. Forecasts: 1.7-1.97M bbl/d. Q1 2026 natural gas: 13.6 Bcm, down 15.1% YoY. 2026 forecast: 62.7 Bcm. KazMunayGas 2025: 26.211M tons (+10% YoY), 2026 outlook 26.4M tons. OPEC+ quotas constraining growth. Druzhba pipeline issues: 260K tons rerouted...
May 08, 2026•3 min•Ep. 182
