Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the world is working out how live with a capricious America. First though, the week ahead will feature Wednesday afternoon's OCR review from the RBNZ, preceded Tuesday by the RBA's cash rate review. The Aussies are expected to cut their rate by -25 bps to 3.60% but the R...
Jul 06, 2025•6 min•Ep. 1597
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the US budget bill has now been approved by Congress setting up a big shift in fortunes for big business at the expense of those on low incomes - and handing their future generations a substantially larger deficit headache. In fact, one so large, it will impact the globa...
Jul 03, 2025•6 min•Ep. 1596
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the financial markets are awaiting the reconciliation of the US budget bill between the Senate and House versions. And they are waiting for news of "the countries lining up to make a [tariff] deal". There only seems to be one, Vietnam, and the details of that 'deal' re...
Jul 02, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1595
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the US Senate has agreed the Trump budget, but only after the Vice President broke a deadlock with a casting vote. Financial markets are wondering about the wisdom in all this with equities hesitating, bond yields turning up, and the USD drifting lower . To be fair, n...
Jul 01, 2025•6 min•Ep. 1594
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the US budget debate has financial markets on edge. But first up today, the Chicago PMI did not report the expected modest bounceback in June from the very weak May result. In fact is stayed in a severe contraction, disappointing everyone involved. It's been nearly thre...
Jun 30, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1593
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news we are now halfway through 2025, closer to the next summer holiday break than the last one. We may need it more this time because economic 'progress' is hard to find. Looking ahead this week, the big end of month data dumps for May from the RBNZ will give us an updated l...
Jun 29, 2025•6 min•Ep. 1592
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news its all about the US and the sharp weakening of the greenback. It is now at its lowest level since early 2022. And a key part of the reason is worries about the Trump attack on the Fed's independence . Meanwhile, US initial jobless claims have stayed elevated although th...
Jun 26, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1591
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news tariff-tax cost threats to inflation are being joined by seasonal climate threats in the US. First, it is hot in large parts of the US, including the heavily populated North-East. Air-conditioners are working overtime. And that means electricity grids are overloaded. R...
Jun 25, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1590
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the US dollar is falling, and the benchmark US 10 year treasury yield is down also, near a seven week low. These are the key reactions to the easing of Middle East hostilities. But first up today, we should note that the weekly Pulse dairy auction for the two main pow...
Jun 24, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1589
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news markets seemed relieved that the Iranians responded in a localised and 'measured' way to the US attack. They took this as a sign the conflict will stay regional. Even the oil price eased back. To financial markets, 'normal' doesn't look like it is being threatened. But ...
Jun 23, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1588
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the world's two largest economies are showing outsized vulnerabilities - geopolitical, economic, and environmental. First in China, the eye-catching retreat of foreign direct investment in April (a net outflow -US$4.8 bln) was arrested in May, positive by +US$17.8 bln fo...
Jun 22, 2025•7 min•Ep. 1587
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the Fed governors are clearly worried about the inflation threat from the new tariff taxes. The US Fed has kept rates unchanged in their decision earlier today, holding their core policy rate at 4.25%. The projection dot plot suggested that they have two more -25 bps r...
Jun 18, 2025•4 min•Ep. 1586
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news we are seeing signs of the US economy losing steam just as the US Fed meets. First up today, the overnight full dairy auction brought slightly lower prices, down nearly -1% overall. This was a smaller decline than the futures market expected. In NZD terms the dip was ...
Jun 17, 2025•6 min•Ep. 1585
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news there are hopes, early ones at this stage, that Iran is looking for an off-ramp in its fight with Israel, or at least, so says Trump. That was enough to bolster equity markets today. But the USD is falling and bond yields are rising. But it is shaky with the G7 summit t...
Jun 16, 2025•6 min•Ep. 1584
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the hot-war tensions in the Middle East from Israel's attack on Iran has generated substantial financial market reaction. And a 'hot' war between Israel and Iran could go on for a very long time. The first three days may only be the start The gold price has jumped. The o...
Jun 15, 2025•7 min•Ep. 1583
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news incoherent trade policies have driven the US dollar to its lowest level since 2022 as markets don't see any easing of geopolitical risks driven out of Washington. The US said it will set unilateral tariff rates on most trading partners at the end of the month. Meanwhile,...
Jun 12, 2025•4 min•Ep. 1582
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news China and the US seem to have agreed some sort of trade deal although the details are still quite fuzzy. However a key part seem to be that the US will only get access to the rare earth minerals on a 180 day rolling basis. That means Beijing will retain key leverage ov...
Jun 11, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1581
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news we are still waiting for indications of the China-US trade talks in London. Meanwhile, the World Bank said global trade expansion is now at its weakest since 2008 as the tariff tit-for-tat undermines it. They say without a swift course correction, "the harm to living ...
Jun 10, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1580
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the US and China are meeting in London to discuss China's block on exports of rare earth minerals that the US manufacturing sector needs. The hope is that the settlement will have the US pull back from its tariff-tax war. More likely, it will be a trade of US AI chips f...
Jun 09, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1579
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news that despite the Trump-generated spectacle of intimidation and violence in Los Angeles against immigrant communities , the economic news has been contained. This coming week is not a big one for local data releases, but in Australia we will get updated surveys of both co...
Jun 08, 2025•7 min•Ep. 1578
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news US Republicans are becoming more like the CPC than they probably realise. But first, there were 209,000 initial jobless claims in the US last week, a small decrease from the prior week but less of a decrease seasonal factors would have assumed. That resulted in the widel...
Jun 05, 2025•7 min•Ep. 1577
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news that poor American data has seen risk aversion rise in financial markets with the USD falling, benchmark bond prices rising (yields falling), many key commodity prices either falling or showing weakness, and Wall Street underperforming global markets. The poor data was...
Jun 04, 2025•6 min•Ep. 1576
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the global economic expansion is losing pace, led by the US. But first up today, the overnight full dairy auction pulled back, and expected, but perhaps not be as much as the derivatives markets suggested. In the end prices were down -1.6% in USD terms and -3.0% in NZ...
Jun 03, 2025•6 min•Ep. 1575
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the Americans seem to be making a concerted effort to adopt a stagflation policy. The USD is falling toward a three year low, gold is rising again, as are US benchmark interest rates. But first, the week ahead will feature central bank rate decisions from Canada (expect...
Jun 02, 2025•6 min•Ep. 1574
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the legality of the US tariff taxes is now under court scrutiny. But first, US initial jobless claims rose +10,000 last week from the prior week to 212,000 when seasonal factors suggested it should have fallen -7,000. (The headline number was +240,000.) There are now 1.7...
May 29, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1573
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the trade chaos and tariff-war skirmishes have markets worldwide watching for inflation signals as much as growth signals. First, in the US their Redbook retail index was up +6.1% last week from the same week a year ago, driven increasingly by tariff-tax price increase...
May 28, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1572
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news a relief rally is underway on Wall Street, responding to the delays in tariffs by the US on EU goods. But first, an update of the overnight dairy Pulse auction where prices for both SMP and WMP slipped although less than the futures market had suggested. The WMP was d...
May 27, 2025•6 min•Ep. 1571
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news we are being reminded of the central role the giant Wall Street markets play in global finance. It is a US holiday weekend, Memorial Day, and without those US markets operating, data releases and other market activity is very restrained. But in the US, Fed boss Powell d...
May 26, 2025•4 min•Ep. 1570
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news we have ended a turbulent week where the USD fell, US Treasury benchmark rates rose, and equities retreated. Gold jumped. The turbulence will continue into this coming week with the US president lashing out because his signature tariff policies aren't producing the econo...
May 25, 2025•8 min•Ep. 1569
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news risk premiums keep on rising. But first, the OECD is reporting that the global expansion is leaking away, and quite quickly now. Economic activity rose by just +0.1% in the first quarter of 2025, significantly down from an +0.5% rise in the previous quarter. The US and J...
May 22, 2025•6 min•Ep. 1568
