Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the bond market is speaking, passing judgement on the Trump Budget - it doesn't like it. The benchmark US Treasury 10yr, 20yr and 30yr bond yields have all jumped +12 bps so far today. That means their holders are taking sharp capital losses as the price of 'safety', a...
May 21, 2025•6 min•Ep. 1567
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news both superpowers are dicing with unsustainable budget deficits that are posed to explode. The Moody's downgrade was just a teaser. The bond market will make the real judgment. But first today, the overnight dairy auction brought the expected settling of prices, even t...
May 20, 2025•6 min•Ep. 1566
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the US downgrade is seeing the trend of higher interest rates extend. And in the US, we have more negative signals. The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI) "plunged" by -1.0% in April, after declining sharply by -0.8% in March. The LEI has declined by -2.0% ...
May 19, 2025•6 min•Ep. 1565
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news analysts and investors are looking at the unfolding trade-war skirmishes through different lenses. The week ahead will be dominated for us by the 2025/26 Government Budget announcements on Thursday and before that the RBA rate decision tomorrow. Important in the backgrou...
May 18, 2025•7 min•Ep. 1564
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news Trump's back-down on tariffs came as corporate decision-makers concluded reshoring isn't a good idea. There are few moves to bolster US-based production. But first today, Fed boss Powell spoke overnight and he focused on the challenges they face keeping inflation under c...
May 15, 2025•7 min•Ep. 1563
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the price of gold is falling, long term benchmark interest rates keep on rising with larger risk premiums, and monetary policy regulators are coming round to the idea of rate cuts to bolster flagging economic expansion everywhere. But first in the US, mortgage applicat...
May 14, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1562
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the relief rally following the US-China trade de-escalation continues, for equities at least. But worries continue about recession and inflation. Investors want higher risk premiums. And it seems China is in no hurry to resume buying from US sources. But first up toda...
May 13, 2025•6 min•Ep. 1561
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news mostly about the China-US Geneva 'agreement' and market reactions. First up, China and the US agreed to cut tariffs on each other by -115%. For the US that means they will go down to 30%. For China, down to 10%. Supposedly the deal is for 90 days to allow further negoti...
May 12, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1560
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news with claims of "substantial progress" and "a deal we struck" by the Americans in their Geneva talks with China, but no indications of anything from the Chinese. Bluster from the White House doesn't count for much these days. But first in the coming week, US attention wil...
May 11, 2025•6 min•Ep. 1559
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the US Fed looks more trapped in policy choices than it has for a long time. But first up today, a US-UK trade deal was announced to great fanfare. But in fact it isn't much. Rather it is a small set of carve-outs from the previous base case: Car tariffs on British-made ...
May 08, 2025•6 min•Ep. 1558
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the global economy's track is no clearer today. First up, the US central bank kept it key policy rate unchanged at 4.50% for a third consecutive meeting in line with expectations. They are keeping their wait-and-see approach but watching to see if the tariff taxes driv...
May 07, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1557
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news we are in for a day of significant announcements, but locally and internationally. But first up today, the overnight full dairy auction brought higher prices, up +4.6% in USD terms and up +3.0% in NZD terms. Of note, the butter price hit a new all-time record high of ...
May 06, 2025•6 min•Ep. 1556
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news all eyes are now turning to the US Fed and the results of their meeting about to start. But first up in the US, the widely-watched ISM services PMI for April came in better than expected with a modest expansion, off a nine month low in March. New orders drove the result...
May 05, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1555
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the gold price is tumbling today, ending its recent spectacular rise. But first, American initial jobless claims rose to 223,600 last week, more than expected. There are now 1.907 mln people on these benefits, +153,000 more than at this time last year, a rose of +8.7%. B...
May 02, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1554
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the consequences of US policy changes are now starting to show up in the data. The big overnight news is the Q1-2025 US GDP report . The American economy shrank at an annualised rate of -0.3% in the period, the first retreat since Q1-2022. This was a sharp reversal fro...
Apr 30, 2025•7 min•Ep. 1553
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news negative data is starting to flow more aggressively in the US as the consequences of dumb policy show through. It been a track to decline for the first 100 days of Trump II. First, the US Redbook index of retail sales rose +6.1% last week from the week before, but the...
Apr 29, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1552
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news there have been some unusual events overnight. And that's putting it mildly. Canadians are voting in federal elections, ones where the winner will need to tackle a weird US administration. The US president injected himself into the campaign at the last minute with a cla...
Apr 28, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1551
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news this week we may start to see some hard data from the US and how the Trump insurgency is affecting the world's largest economy. Already sentiment surveys seem pretty negative. For us, the week ahead will be dominated by the March quarter financial system data releases fr...
Apr 27, 2025•6 min•Ep. 1550
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news that as tariffs kick in, the US gets higher prices and lower activity. The White House is signaling it wants to pull back from its bluster (whiff of panic?), although China is yet to respond. But first in the US, mortgage applications fell sharply last week to be just ...
Apr 23, 2025•6 min•Ep. 1549
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news reality and expectations seem to be diverging. But first up today we can report that the weekly dairy Pulse auction for SMP and WMP brought little-change in the WMP price from the previous full GDT auction in USD, while the SMP price rose +3.0% on that same basis, but...
Apr 22, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1548
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news that gold is rising, being the 'last man standing' as a perceived safe-haven asset. And American bond funds are having a moment, a negative one. Outflows are continuing , building selling pressure at the rate of about US$10 bln per week and have done so for the past fiv...
Apr 21, 2025•8 min•Ep. 1547
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news gold has taken off, hitting yet another new all-time record high as fear stalks markets today and risk is definitely 'off'. But the NZD is rising. As we publish, markets are moving quickly so this snapshot will date just as quickly. But first in the US, mortgage applic...
Apr 16, 2025•7 min•Ep. 1546
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the gears of the global economy are grinding disconcertingly as the unnecessary trade war is prosecuted with little strategy and no apparent viable end game. But first up today, the latest full dairy auction brought an overall rise of +1.6% in USD. However, the fall a...
Apr 15, 2025•6 min•Ep. 1545
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the week started with a strong risk-on mood and equities rose on Monday in Asia, and especially in Europe. Wall Street opened with the same vibe, but lost momentum in the middle sessions, although it is returning in the later session. It's volatile. But first in main st...
Apr 14, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1544
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news things are turning sour in the trenches of the US economy - for consumers, many non-prime corporate borrowers, and even investors in some local manufacturing they did at the behest of Trump. But first in the week ahead our news will be dominated by the March quarter CPI ...
Apr 13, 2025•9 min•Ep. 1543
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news equity markets have cancelled yesterday's relief rally. But first in the US, initial jobless claims rose last week to 215,000, +7.7% higher than the week before, but identical to the same week a year ago. There are now just under 2 mln people on these benefits, up slight...
Apr 10, 2025•7 min•Ep. 1542
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news that past notions of safe havens have been upended, and now it is the turn of the bond market to be roiled. The cost of long-term money is rising sharply as risk premiums leap. First, China has reacted in equal measure to Trump's capricious 104% tariffs on their goods,...
Apr 09, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1541
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the Wall Street and business titans who supported the 2024 Trump campaign are starting to turn on him , one calling the current situation "a clown show". The show has gotten even more extreme overnight. The US has added another 50% to tariffs on its imports from China...
Apr 08, 2025•6 min•Ep. 1540
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news US Treasury yields are rising today on growing American recession fears may prompt investors to question the safety of US Treasuries as a haven asset. The risk premium jumped after a weekend to think about last week's yield falls. But Wall Street equities have stopped f...
Apr 07, 2025•6 min•Ep. 1539
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news we are now in a 'new world economy' and it will take some getting used to. The roll-out and consequences will develop over days, weeks, months, and years. The immediate past is irrelevant today. Tomorrow will be quite disconnected from the recent past. But first up, we h...
Apr 06, 2025•8 min•Ep. 1538
