Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the all bets are probably off on how 2025 will turn out as the cascading impacts from the Trump tariffs surge around the world. We were anticipating we would be reporting some tariff retaliation news today, and there is some. But the most significant retaliation is from ...
Apr 03, 2025•6 min•Ep. 1537
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the Trump tariff announcement will be just after 4pm New York time today when Wall Street closes. That is 9am New Zealand time. After that, it will be all about the size and nature of the retaliation from its former allies. In the meantime we should note that American ...
Apr 02, 2025•4 min•Ep. 1536
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the world is bracing for the US to start a US$1.4 tln trade war. Tomorrow. The US says it is ready to start hostilities, supposedly with 20% across-the-board levies. Other governments have their retaliation plans ready. Americans are rushing to buy cars they can affor...
Apr 01, 2025•6 min•Ep. 1535
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the NZD is falling again and sharply, now back to one-month lows as commodity prices suggested shifts to our disadvantage, and global trade flows became more uncertain. The global risk-off trend is building. Wall Street opened weak, although it has pared back some of th...
Mar 31, 2025•6 min•Ep. 1534
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news commodity prices are falling away across the board, along with crypto, as a risk-off mood builds in financial markets. In the week ahead, the most interesting developments will be close to home. There will be the usual monthly dump of February data from the RBNZ later to...
Mar 30, 2025•6 min•Ep. 1533
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news behind the tariff headlines that shows impacts of recent policy changes are starting to show up in some places, but not everywhere yet. US jobless claims fell slightly last week and about at the level seasonal factors would have expected. There are now 2.08 mln people on...
Mar 27, 2025•6 min•Ep. 1532
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news financial markets are sensing a turn lower in the giant US economy and a risk-off tone is spreading. Impending new tariff announcements there are casting a pall over everything. First, despite another fall in long term mortgage interest rates, US mortgage applications ...
Mar 26, 2025•4 min•Ep. 1531
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the own goals keep coming for the US. But first, the overnight dairy Pulse auction came in with the opposite results signaled by the derivatives market. The SMP price was expected to bounce back after the weakish full auction event the week before, but basically it di...
Mar 25, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1530
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with newsthe prospect of tariffs already seem to be sapping the rising expansion of the American manufacturing sector over the past few years. The first look at PMIs for March are starting to come through with early 'flash' results. In the US, the S&P Global composite PMI ros...
Mar 24, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1529
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news we are heading into a week where the data won't be as important as the policy decisions made and about to be made. And we do seem to be seeing a shift in great-power economic fortunes; the US fading while China get up off its knees. Although there are only a few key data...
Mar 23, 2025•6 min•Ep. 1528
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news we are slipping in the Happiness rankings, and slipping fast in the inequality measures within it. But first, last week's American initial jobless claims report brought no surprises, coming it at a similar level to the prior week and exactly as anticipated. But they seas...
Mar 20, 2025•6 min•Ep. 1527
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news it’s a big day of data locally with our Q4-2024 GDP result out later this morning, preceded by the Fonterra half year result. Either may have market-moving implications. But a few minutes ago, the US Fed released its latest monetary policy review and projections , the ...
Mar 19, 2025•6 min•Ep. 1526
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news there are plenty of bumps in the economic road to note today. But first up today, there was another full dairy auction overnight, one that analysts had been nervous about and the derivatives market saw downside risks (on the uncertainties of how dairy product distorti...
Mar 18, 2025•6 min•Ep. 1525
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the US Federal Reserve is meeting to review its monetary policy settings and uncertainty levels are high and rising, both on the growth and inflation fronts. But first, as we noted yesterday, China's State Council has launched 'a special action plan' to boost domestic c...
Mar 17, 2025•7 min•Ep. 1524
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news China's inability to get out of its rut, and the fast-fading of the American exuberance are the dominating global economic scene-setters. And this week it will be all about by the US Fed and its Thursday monetary policy review. They face the prospects of higher inflation...
Mar 16, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1523
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the gold price is approaching US$3000/oz again after hitting a new record high earlier today. The equity markets are falling again. Benchmark bond yields are in risk-aversion mode but corporate debt yields are rising. But first, US initial jobless claims were little-chan...
Mar 13, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1522
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news retaliation on retaliation seems to be the order of the day in the US tariff policy - exactly has observers had expected. The whole thing is a no-win battle and a repeat of a history lesson that failed the first time - one it should be noted that resulted in the 1929 D...
Mar 12, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1521
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the US is doubling its tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium to 50% in a tantrum over Canadians asserting their independence. Wall Street reacted badly, dropping another -1% and taking the losses to -10% over the past four week, a drop in the market capitalisation o...
Mar 11, 2025•6 min•Ep. 1520
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news Wall Street has taken sudden fright on the growing realisation of what Trump has wrought for them. It's risk-off in a big way with equities falling sharply and bond yields retreating. Normally on a risk-off phase the USD rises, but this time it's actually softer . Putin...
Mar 10, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1519
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news we start the week with current data that is almost certainly not indicative of what's to come. The policy landscape is in ferment. First in the week ahead however, locally it will be all about migration, retail sales, and a look a second look at 2025 inflation levels. In...
Mar 09, 2025•8 min•Ep. 1518
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news US policy making has now become so chaotic, businesses are holding off making decisions. That can only have negative consequences. Firstly, US jobless claims rose modestly last week from the week before but this was less than seasonal factors would have suggested. There ...
Mar 06, 2025•6 min•Ep. 1517
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the tariff war mess is getting messier. First up, the overnight dairy auction came in a bit better than the futures market suggested it might. This event offered lower volumes at the back end of the current dairy season, and prices eased just -0.5% in USD terms from t...
Mar 04, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1516
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news chaos has consequences, but they seem to be coming faster than many thought. The giant US economy is resilient, but not immune to the consequences of misguided policy decisions. Regular readers will know we regularly track the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow signals. Today that ha...
Mar 03, 2025•7 min•Ep. 1515
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the global economy seems to be settling back into a low growth phase on the back of the sharp rise in policy uncertainty in the US. But first, in the week ahead we will get our December trade balance update and data on building permits for January. And the first of the q...
Mar 02, 2025•7 min•Ep. 1514
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news trade and tariffs are in the headlines, but their impact of higher inflation and slower economic activity are just starting to be seen. US initial jobless claims rose sharply last week in seasonally adjusted terms, the largest rise in five month. In actual terms they wer...
Feb 27, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1513
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news of more data dragging in the US, and more debt plans in China. First up, American mortgage applications fell again last week, and this is despite their benchmark 30 year mortgage interest rate falling further below the 7% level. Lower home loan rates now are not motiva...
Feb 26, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1512
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news that is not good. Markets are suddenly gripped by extreme fears of where the world's largest economy is heading. But first up today we can report that the overnight dairy Pulse auction has seen milk powder prices fall. The big fall expected for WMP didn't happen but i...
Feb 25, 2025•6 min•Ep. 1511
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the fading of confidence in the US is spreading, but trailing the international reputation demise. First up today, the widely-watched Chicago Fed's National Activity Index for the US fell in January from an upwardly revised result for December, suggesting American econo...
Feb 24, 2025•4 min•Ep. 1510
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news that 100 days of mayhem has not only killed the global leadership position of the US, Americans themselves (consumers and business) are reacting by turning sharply defensive. The US dollar is under pressure, Wall Street is down sharply, and benchmark bond yields are drop...
Feb 23, 2025•7 min•Ep. 1509
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news that while Trump is playing Putin's puppet, his lieutenants are setting the stage for a new global bout of stagflation - higher tariff-induced costs for little or no economic expansion. Wall Street is starting to price in what is increasingly likely to lie ahead. The USD...
Feb 20, 2025•6 min•Ep. 1508
