foreign investors, both friends an foes, are quitting their exposure to the new Russified US. But first up, the Redbook tracking of American retail sales shows they were up +6.3% last week from the same week a year go. This is a heady gain outside the seasonal shopping windows. Buyers may be trying to insulate themselves ahead of the inflation that will flow from impending tariffs. Last week's gain was twice what it was a year ago, and also higher than the same week two years ago. Some of this d...
Feb 19, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1507
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon visiting India before China could be seen as an insult in China, Beijing-based New Zealander David Mahon says. But he says China's recently announced strategic partnership with the Cook Islands, through which NZ was kept in the dark, shouldn't be viewed as insult to, or provocation of, NZ. Mahon, who is Managing Director of Mahon China Investment Management and has lived in China since 1984, spoke to interest.co.nz in a new episode of the Of Interest podcast . Lu...
Feb 19, 2025•38 min•Ep. 1506
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news inflation is still not beat and the new tariff wars are messing with when that might happen. First up today, there was another dairy auction , and this one came in weaker than the derivatives markets had anticipated. Prices slipped overall by -0.6% in USD terms and by...
Feb 18, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1505
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news today will be dominated by the RBA rate review, especially as US financial markets are on holiday (Presidents Day). Meanwhile, Canadian housing starts rose in January from December and came in +3.7% higher than year ago levels. Montreal and Vancouver demand drove the in...
Feb 17, 2025•4 min•Ep. 1504
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the messy international outlook continues but so far the changes are more in prospect than real. First however, this will be a big week of data and policy releases. Not only will Australia review its policy rate tomorrow (a -25 bps cut is anticipated taking their cash ra...
Feb 16, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1503
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news it is expected that the US will announce reciprocal tariffs today, although the phase-in time might be months. To be revealed. This will be seen as the formal start of a global trade war. New Zealand won't be any focus but it won't be immune. The tariffs will be on goods...
Feb 13, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1502
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the instability feared over the new US tariff approach is hitting their economy. First up today, we need to note that US headline CPI inflation rose in January to 3.0% when no change from the December 2.9% was anticipated. Core inflation was expected to fall to 3.1% fr...
Feb 12, 2025•6 min•Ep. 1501
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the USD is wavering (down -1.7%) as policy missteps especially on the impact of the trade war hostilities . Benchmark interest rates are rising as risk premiums rise. Estimates for US growth are getting downgraded, while estimates for US inflation are being raised. Th...
Feb 11, 2025•6 min•Ep. 1500
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news of more signaled tariffs on imports into the US, specifically on metals. A new inflation surge seems inevitable, as does less trade and low growth - in other words we need to prepare for a new bout of stagflation. But first, American consumer inflation expectations for ...
Feb 10, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1499
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news it doesn't look like our trading partners are going to be that helpful getting us out of recession. This week we will be watching for the Selected Prices inflation indications on Friday. And financial markets will be doing their final jostling for the following week's se...
Feb 09, 2025•10 min•Ep. 1498
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the American rich get insulated from legal scrutiny, while the US economic data loses its shine. First in the US, their services sector expanded slower in January than expected, according to the widely-watch ISM survey . It is still a good expansion, just with lower new ...
Feb 06, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1497
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news it remains unclear what happens next after the chaotic round of US tariffs on their closest trade partners, and then their unexpected suspension. But first up this morning, we can report a strong dairy auction result , with prices up +3.7% in USD terms and up +4.0% in...
Feb 04, 2025•6 min•Ep. 1496
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news Trump's tariffs are bringing the same level of global uncertainty back as we had from China's pandemic. This time however, officials in charge lack the credibility or the instinct to change policy for the common good, or the courage to withstand the nutters. In fact, th...
Feb 03, 2025•6 min•Ep. 1495
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news about the start of a tariff trade war, a reprise of a 1930s effort, also started by the US, and one that ended badly for everyone. The week ahead was supposed to be basically about jobs, both here and in the US with our HLFS data for December out on Thursday, and the US ...
Feb 02, 2025•7 min•Ep. 1494
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news of some all-time high benchmarks that are impressive. The first estimate of Q4-2024 GDP was out earlier today and it came in at a +2.3% growth rate, less than the +3.1% in Q3. It was also lower than most market analysts had anticipated. Consumption came in at the 3% leve...
Jan 30, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1493
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news markets are all quiet ahead of the US Fed monetary policy review and results will be announced at 8am NZT. Markets do not expect any rate change, but given the aggressive start to the Trump Administration, markets will be watching for any Fed reaction. It seems unlikel...
Jan 29, 2025•6 min•Ep. 1492
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news US equity markets have made a comeback from yesterday's tech rout. But it isn't a full comeback yet in the tech space. In addition, general economic sentiment is more sober about the 2025 prospects. But first, last week's US retail sales were up +4.9% from the same we...
Jan 28, 2025•6 min•Ep. 1491
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news Wall Street is reassessing its valuation basics, and there is a general pullback across the board. It started with questions about an AI valuation bubble, but is extending to others now. "Risk-off" is the mood today. But first, yesterday's reporting of China's official ...
Jan 27, 2025•4 min•Ep. 1490
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news that we will be watching for China holiday demand signals, and watching how the US Fed handles new sharp political interference. Also, this week will bring a slew of big economic announcements in many places, but not China which is starting its Lunar New Year week-long h...
Jan 26, 2025•7 min•Ep. 1489
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news we are living in a new world of imposed distortions. Ethical politics or business dealing is out the window. Trust is being replaced by force. It is hard to see how this will end well. After all, business relies on trust, honesty and integrity. Without it, why would you ...
Jan 23, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1488
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the the cost of the Trump capricious bulldozing is going to be much higher interest rates - and the bond market have a key signal today. But first, US mortgage applications were virtually unchanged last week, up only +0.1% to be +2% higher than the same weak week a yea...
Jan 22, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1487
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the dominated by Trump's shows of 'power' and theatrics. Toxic tech-bro masculinity is on full display. Senior female leaders are getting the chop or side-lined. But so far, also backtracks on trade threats. So we will stand back to await any real impacts. But first u...
Jan 21, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1486
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the US is today moving from a prosperous and strong four years into an unknown future; the age where billionaires get all the gains. Markets are showing caution, especially the bond market which is likely to be the most reliable predictor of what is to come. And the USD...
Jan 21, 2025•4 min•Ep. 1485
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the world seems to be bracing for the uncertainties of the incoming US Administration, but it is starting from a generally resilient position (although that doesn't seem to include New Zealand). But first, the week ahead will be dominated locally by our Q4 CPI release . ...
Jan 19, 2025•7 min•Ep. 1484
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news that despite it rising to its highest since June - to +2.9% and fourth monthly increase - financial markets have concluded US inflation is under control and Fed rate cuts are imminent. The key benchmark rates are easing back now. But first, although seasonal factors push...
Jan 16, 2025•6 min•Ep. 1483
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the relief is palpable in financial markets today. First up today we can report that the American CPI inflation rate came in at 2.9% in December, almost exactly as expected and shrugging off some market fears of an upside to those expectations. The monthly change came ...
Jan 15, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1482
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news long term rates just keep on rising ahead of the change in the US Administration. And now the USD is slipping back. First up however, the overnight GDT dairy Pulse auction brought the expected changes. The SMP price extended its recent rises, and the WMP price essenti...
Jan 14, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1481
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the week has started tentatively. But there was an eye-catching housing affordability proposal in Spain, But first, there were no real surprises in the latest survey of American inflation expectations . Consumers still see a 3% rate for the year ahead, more for food (+4...
Jan 13, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1480
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the rise in long term benchmark rates is echoing everywhere, including in New Zealand. But first, if you are just back from your summer break, welcome back to work. Those benchmark interest rates have been on the move up while you have been away. The week ahead will be f...
Jan 12, 2025•9 min•Ep. 1479
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news China and Japan seem to be in the process of swapping places. But first, following a much better than expected rise in October, and driven by fast-rising credit card debt, the November American consumer debt levels corrected in November, falling -US$7.5 bln. Again, it wa...
Jan 09, 2025•7 min•Ep. 1478
