Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news long term interest rates are rising and have much further to go. But first, American private businesses added +122,000 workers to their payrolls in December, the least in four months, compared to 146,000 in November, according to the precursor ADP Employment Report . T...
Jan 08, 2025•7 min•Ep. 1477
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news American economic data continues to impress. But first up today there was a full dairy auction , one that brought slightly lower prices overall in USD terms (-1.4%), and slightly higher results in NZD terms (+0.6%). The milk powders slipped -2.2% while the milk fats (...
Jan 07, 2025•6 min•Ep. 1476
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news China's financial markets are flashing some unwelcome signals. But first up today, there were a range of services PMIs for December released overnight. And the most interesting one (for us) is the Aussie one. Their service sector expanded in the month, with new business...
Jan 06, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1475
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the economic world its returning after the end of year holiday season, and finding the 2024 worries are still here in 2025. First up however, the first post-New Year holiday week back will be a relatively quiet one, but there are still some important things to cover, and...
Jan 05, 2025•7 min•Ep. 1474
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news 2024 has brought some huge and surprising changes. But in other sectors, not as much change as you might have expected. And through it all profits and wealth growth have been strong. But first in the US and based on a rise in new orders, the Dallas Fed's Texas manufactu...
Dec 30, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1473
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news of a major airplane crash in South Korea, probably due to a birdstrike. In the global economy, the situation is dominated by market fears of what the incoming Trump Administration will do. Bond yields are pricing in that risk by raising them to near their highest since 2...
Dec 29, 2024•8 min•Ep. 1472
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news China is clamping down harder on negative views about their economic prospects. Chinese economists are now required to be cheerleaders for their economy. But first up today, sales of new single-family homes in the United States rose by +5.9% from the previous month to a...
Dec 23, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1471
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news we are ending the year with mostly a strong international economy, but worries are growing about prospects for 2025. If both China and the US turn down together, then all bets are off. But right now, it's going to a relatively quiet week ahead as you would expect with ma...
Dec 22, 2024•7 min•Ep. 1470
Stats NZ’s final data release for the year revealed the economy has been shrinking at its fastest rate in three decades. While this may not be a very Merry Christmas, there is still hope for a Happy New Year. Treasury, the Reserve Bank, and most economists expect growth to resume in 2025 as interest rates fall. Consumer spending should pick back up and cheaper credit should make business investments more worthwhile. But while private New Zealanders open up their wallets, the Government will cont...
Dec 20, 2024•29 min•Ep. 1469
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news of deliberate chaos being constructed in Washington DC with a much higher prospect of a US Federal Government shutdown likely. Authorised funding expires later today / Friday, US time. Financial risks are sharply elevated today, and markets are pricing these in. Elsewher...
Dec 19, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1468
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news all markets have been waiting for the US Fed decision. And as expected, they have cut their key policy rates by -25 bps with the targeted range now 4.25%-4.50%. Progress on taming inflation gets the main credit from them. As we publish, Chairman Powell has yet to hold ...
Dec 18, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1467
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news commodity prices are facing some headwinds, and that may get worse as trade prospects dim and the de-risking from China builds. Today's full dairy auction brought lower prices from both last week's Pulse event, and the prior week's full event. But the dips were largel...
Dec 17, 2024•4 min•Ep. 1466
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news analysts are now starting to estimate the costs to the US economy of some upcoming tariff policy. But first, the S&P Global American services PMI rose in December to its strongest expansion since March 2022. But their manufacturing downturn deepened with manufacture...
Dec 16, 2024•7 min•Ep. 1465
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news of a large number of key new releases to end the year. It might be the final full week before the summer holidays (in New Zealand), but there will be a lot going on and a lot to follow. Here of course it is the week when corporates and the government release their 'bad n...
Dec 15, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1464
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news cost cutting and raising prices are key themes in US business at present - sure to challenge the Fed's policy path. First in the US, there was an outsized jump in the number of people making initial jobless claims , +310,000 for the week. That pushed up the number of peo...
Dec 12, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1463
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news Australia has been assessing their exposure risks to upcoming Trump tariffs - and they are nervous. But first in the US, their November CPI rate came in without any surprises. It rose for a second consecutive month to 2.7% in November from 2.6% in October. But the rise...
Dec 11, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1462
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the expected glow following the Chinese stimulus signals is surprising in its absence. Markets have turned quite sceptical and the Chinese bond yields have sunk sharply. But first up today, we can report that the overnight GDT dairy Pulse auction brought slightly lowe...
Dec 10, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1461
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news China has dropped the word "prudent" as it changes tack in its approach to economic support. Commodity currencies, including the NZD, got a boost from the shift But first, US consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead increased to 3% in November from 2.9% in Oct...
Dec 09, 2024•4 min•Ep. 1460
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news central bank rate cuts are expected this week - from some, but not all. And Shayne Elliott may be about to end his time at ANZ. But first in the week ahead, most eyes will be on the American Consumer Price Index, Then tomorrow (Tuesday) the RBA will review its cash rate ...
Dec 08, 2024•7 min•Ep. 1459
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news all eyes are on the US non-farm payrolls report due out tomorrow, and market activity is hesitant in advance of that. US jobless claims came in at +210,000 last week, a good decrease from the prior week. But it was not as large a drop as the seasonality suggests it shoul...
Dec 05, 2024•4 min•Ep. 1458
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the world's services sector seems to be holding its own Ahead of this weekend's November non-farm payrolls report, the private ADP Employment report out today reveals American private businesses added +146,000 workers to their payrolls in the month, slightly below for...
Dec 04, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1457
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news of an unexpected development in South Korea. But first, dairy prices edged up slightly again in this morning's latest full dairy auction , but that doesn't really tell the story of this event properly. With the local milk production season now past its peak, lesser vo...
Dec 03, 2024•4 min•Ep. 1456
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news all about the state of the world's factories. Globally , manufacturing stabilised in November with a rise in new orders. First up today, there were two factory PMI surveys out for the US for November. Both reported their sector contraction eased noticeably. The widely-w...
Dec 02, 2024•4 min•Ep. 1455
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news China is still stuck in its rut, the US twisted by tariff talk, Japan sees progress, and Russia's currency gets a big downgrade. But first, this coming week will end with the US non-farm payrolls report, and analysts expect a sharp recovery to +183,000 added jobs, far hi...
Dec 01, 2024•8 min•Ep. 1454
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the world's dominant financial market is closed today, so this will be a thin report. Wall Street will be back in a limited capacity tomorrow (their Friday). In the US, a record 80 mln people are expected to travel at least 100 kms this holiday weekend. But the Canadians...
Nov 28, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1453
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news rising consumer demand in the world's largest economy is still driving the world's economy, a trend that started nearly a century ago - and still, it shows no sign of ending anytime soon. First we should note that the American Thanksgiving holiday starts tomorrow, so t...
Nov 27, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1452
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news that financial markets are being rattled somewhat by the isolationist rhetoric from the incoming US President on tariffs, especially as they will apply to Canada , Mexico and China. However, despite the incendiary nature of the talk, the market reactions have been relativ...
Nov 26, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1451
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the market pressure on US benchmark interest rates is easing now. First, an updated Dallas Fed survey showed the Texan manufacturing sector contracted less in November, the least in 2½ years. This was driven by the outlook mood which improved sharply, post election. But thi...
Nov 25, 2024•4 min•Ep. 1450
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the US and India are driving global demand currently. First, in the week ahead, the major even for us will of course be the Wednesday RBNZ Monetary Policy Review, the last one for 2024. And markets have priced in a full -50 bps cut in the OCR, a setting that will have to las...
Nov 24, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1449
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news about separate corruption cases involving Gautam Adani, and Matt Gaetz. But first today, the US labour market is maintaining its strength, despite strikes and tropical hurricanes. Last week only +213,000 people filed for initial jobless claims , well below the prior week, be...
Nov 21, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1448
