Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news both China and the EU seem to be facing banking & debt pressures, different of course, but each challenging in its own way. But first in the US, mortgage applications edged slightly higher last week from the week before to be -30% lower that at the end of September and...
Nov 20, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1447
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news dairy prices are still rising. We got an increase in dairy prices at the overnight GlobalDairyTrade auction from the prior event, but it was a small pullback from prices at last week's Pulse event. Overall prices were up +1.9% in USD terms, up +3.6% in NZD terms, so a goo...
Nov 19, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1446
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news that long term benchmark bond interest rates are still rising, even if the rising trend is variable. It is a quiet economic data day in the US, with a housing building confidence index the only release of note. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose in November to i...
Nov 18, 2024•4 min•Ep. 1445
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the focus is turning to Q1-2025 now and the twists & turns the world's largest economy will deliver. It is probably no coincidence that post-election, Warren Buffett is selling. But first, in the week ahead we will get data on our producer price inflation, and an update ...
Nov 17, 2024•7 min•Ep. 1444
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the slowing Chinese economy is keeping the oil price low, and it might stay that way because supply is rising, and quite quickly. But first, although there were no surprises in US initial jobless claim levels, they did rise last week to 229,000 on seasonal factors so there a...
Nov 14, 2024•4 min•Ep. 1443
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news markets are starting to price in the return of US inflation in 2025, and perhaps the end of US Fed rate cuts (although there could still be a last hurrah in December). In the US, their CPI inflation rate rose to 2.6% in October from 2.4% in September. This is the expected ...
Nov 13, 2024•4 min•Ep. 1442
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news that while we were all distracted by the 'culture-war' US election, in fact the world's economy was expanding well, except perhaps in China (but even they are still expanding, just not like the they need). In the US Redbook retail index rose +4.8% last week from the same ...
Nov 12, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1441
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news that there was little economic data released overnight, so this report will be quite thin - and short. First up today we should note that China's October vehicle sales surged by +7% from a year ago to just over 3 million units in in the month. This contrasted with the -1.7%...
Nov 11, 2024•4 min•Ep. 1440
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news China's battle with deflationary pressures shows no sign of being won. But first, in the week ahead locally, we will get the REINZ result for October some time this week. And September migration data on Wednesday. Internationally, all eyes will be on American consumer and pr...
Nov 10, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1439
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news with a special eye on unpredictable American policy instability. The Trump win unhinges many things, including the path for central bank rate cuts. The ones announced today may be the last until after the direction of US fiscal policy is revealed for certain. In the shadow o...
Nov 07, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1438
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news it was a night of celebration in the US, especially for billionaires, and those pushing extreme social and religious views. The decisive second coming of a Trump Administration will free up new divisive narratives that will spill over globally. It is a great time to be a c...
Nov 06, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1437
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news that is surprisingly positive today. Even though there are likely large influences on New Zealand from events halfway around the world, there are some locally too. Later this morning the Q3-2024 labour market report will be released. And we will have full coverage. But be...
Nov 05, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1436
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news financial market traders are bracing for volatility over the US election-counting period. But elsewhere, global manufacturing remains subdued as new order intakes contract for a fourth successive month. The global factory PMI is dominated by large countries, especially the ...
Nov 04, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1435
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news that, while it may be a pivotal week regarding the US election, we are staying away from that event. There are plenty of other places to get whatever slant suits you. In the coming week, the highlight will be Friday morning's US Fed rate decision. Analysts have pencilled in ...
Nov 03, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1434
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the American economy continues its remarkable run , although corporate earnings guidance is showing some hesitation. US jobless claims last week came in at +200,000, a decrease and more than expected. Interestingly, this is the same level it was a year ago for the same week....
Oct 31, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1433
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news consumers may be anxious about their political future, but they are spending like they are in healthy financial shape. In the US, their economy expanded an annualised +2.8% in Q3-2024 , below the 3% in the previous quarter and forecasts of 3%. Holding it back was essential...
Oct 30, 2024•4 min•Ep. 1432
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the fiscal bazooka is reportedly in place in China. And it is bigger than expected. But first, US retail sales remain strong. The Redbook index rose +5.6% last week, its biggest gain since early September, and better than the +5.3% in the same week last year. The number o...
Oct 29, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1431
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news China is having trouble getting its economic mojo back. In fact most signals are suggesting they are slipping further behind. But first, this coming week is a very busy one in the US. Not only will they release key labour market data (JOLTS, non-farm payrolls) and PMI data ...
Oct 28, 2024•7 min•Ep. 1430
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news we need to get ready for a +3o future and start adapting for it. But first, initial jobless claims in the US came in at just 203,000 last week, much lower than expected. There are now 1.635 mln on these benefits. We are about a week away from getting the US non-farm payrolls...
Oct 24, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1429
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news that while officials cut policy interest rates, markets are bidding up benchmark bond rates. But first, there was another aggressive fall in the level of American mortgage applications last week, down almost -7% from the prior week, and extending the -17% plunge from that ...
Oct 23, 2024•4 min•Ep. 1428
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the global bond selloff has eased, but the reasons for it don't seem to have changed. First up today, the IMF has lowered its global growth forecast and warned of increasing risks ahead. The growth they see is from the stronger-than-expected performance in the US despite ...
Oct 22, 2024•4 min•Ep. 1427
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news that investors seem to be having second thoughts about Q3 earnings prospects in light of the supposedly close US election race. Wall Street is retreating and US Treasury yields are rising. But first, the US Conference Board said its Leading Economic Index fell by -0.5% in S...
Oct 21, 2024•4 min•Ep. 1426
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news that signs of economic under-achievement seem to be cropping up everywhere. First though, at the end of this week we have the long weekend holiday, for Labour Day. But first, the week ahead will feature October 'flash' PMIs from all over and the third week of Wall Street Q3 ...
Oct 20, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1425
This is a test of the podcast generator on Google Notebook LLM
Oct 18, 2024•16 min•Ep. 1424
US data mixed. Japanese exports fall. China stimulus unconvincing. ECB cuts. Aussie labour market rises. Freight rates weaker.
Oct 17, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1423
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news economic data is light today and we await signals from the building Wall Street earnings season. Markets seem positive about what is ahead. Meanwhile in the US, mortgage applications fell very sharply last week from the prior week, down -17% and the most in nine years (exc...
Oct 16, 2024•4 min•Ep. 1422
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news China is dusting off some unused regulations to shore up its deteriorating financial situation. But first, at the overnight dairy auction , prices were little-changed, down -0.2% in USD terms but up +2.8% in NZD terms. The dominant WMP price was essentially unchanged, but...
Oct 15, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1421
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the world's second largest economy shows more signs of losing its expansion mojo China's exports rose in September but at an unexpectedly slowish pace. They were expected to rise +6% from a year ago, but only rose +2.4%. This was the fifth consecutive month of export growth...
Oct 14, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1420
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news China's deflation Pressures keep on coming. And in the US disinflation rolls on, which they hope will end soon. This coming week will be another one with chunky data releases. The biggest will be on Wednesday, our own CPI result for the Q3-2024 period (Markets expect 2.0%). ...
Oct 13, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1419
The Government could run a second retirement income scheme alongside NZ Superannuation as part of a transition to a new system, but according to Andrew Coleman, this couldn't be done without an increase in taxes on older people, or more general tax increases. Fresh from his 13 part interest.co.nz series on NZ's government retirement income system and associated taxes, Coleman spoke to myself and Terry Baucher on a combined episode of the Of Interest podcast and the New Zealand Tax Podcast . Cole...
Oct 10, 2024•1 hr 5 min•Ep. 1417
