Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news markets see a cooling US labour market in signals ahead of this weekend's August non-farm payrolls report. But first, US mortgage applications rose by an insignificant +1.6% from the previous week in the last week of August, a low and stable situation. They are now -4% low...
Sep 04, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1387
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news financial markets are looking for excuses to be negative, and they found one - sort of. But first up today there was another full dairy auction and that brought a somewhat disappointing result. Overall prices fell a minor -0.4% in USD, down -1.1% in NZD. This event failed...
Sep 03, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1386
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the world's second largest economy may be seriously out of balance, with implications for everyone. With the US on holiday. the big global influences come from elsewhere today. First up, the private Caixin PMI for Chinese factories moved up from a minor contraction in July ...
Sep 02, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1385
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the big northern hemisphere countries are starting to report their August activity levels - and most of them are fine. But first in China, their official August PMIs were released over the weekend. Their factory PMI fell a bit further into a minor contraction. New orders, fo...
Sep 01, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1384
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the northern holiday season can still spring a few economic and market surprises. First in the US, mortgage applications last week were little-changed from a week ago (down -0.5%) and that is despite mortgage rates falling for a fourth consecutive week to 6.44% for their b...
Aug 28, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1383
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the last few days of the northern summer holiday period that is quiet but basically positive. First, American retail sales at physical stores were up +5.0% last week from the same week in 2023, another pointer that the consumer side of the American economy hasn't stumbled...
Aug 27, 2024•4 min•Ep. 1382
With US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signalling interest rate cuts ahead, the US dollar's likely to weaken with the Kiwi dollar rising against it, Imre Speizer, Head of NZ Markets Strategy at Westpac Institutional Bank, says. Speaking in a new episode of the Of Interest podcast , Speizer says although the expected central bank interest rate trajectory is very similar in NZ and the US over the next 12 months, financial markets will focus much more on the US. "If the two racehorses go ne...
Aug 27, 2024•37 min•Ep. 1381
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news it seems the global soft landing has been achieved. But first, the week ahead will feature some chunky economic data from the world's largest economies but no first-tier data. This seems befitting of the final week of the summer break in the northern hemisphere when end the ...
Aug 25, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1379
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news financial markets in the US have the jitters ahead of a key speech by Fed boss Powell tomorrow at the Jackson Hole central bank shindig. Equities fell, bond yields rose, and the USD firmed and expectations grew Powell will make the case for only a gradual pace of rate cuts. ...
Aug 22, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1378
US jobs growth not as strong as first reported. Fed minutes confirm likely September cut. China threatens the EU on dairy trade.
Aug 21, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1377
The process of growth will be the main benefit from a scaled up Kiwibank, while public acclaim will be a key measure of open banking's success, Commerce Commission Chairman John Small says. Small spoke to interest.co.nz for the latest episode of the Of Interest podcast , which will be published later on Wednesday. The interview came after the Commission released the final report from its market study into personal banking services. The Government says it'll act on all 14 recommendations from the...
Aug 20, 2024•25 min•Ep. 1376
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the northern summer is delivering positive economic vibes. But first up today, the expected rise in dairy prices at today's full dairy auction actually came in slightly better than expected. In USD prices were up +5.5% with the key WMP price rising +7.2% and SMP up +4.0%....
Aug 20, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1375
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news that US dollar has fallen to a seven-month low as American disinflation extends in their economy and that is raising expectations of rate cuts in each of the Fed's remaining three reviews this year. US equity markets are rising on the same expectation, with the S&P500 m...
Aug 19, 2024•3 min•Ep. 1374
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news we are now in the final two weeks of the northern holiday season, and that is anchored by the central bank shindig at Jackson Hole, WY starting at the end of the week. This week, China will review its Loan Price Rates later tomorrow. No change is expected. Canada will report...
Aug 18, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1373
Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby says the Reserve Bank's (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Committee might have taken a different stance in May if the economic activity forecasts had been more accurate. In May, forecasts had anticipated 1% GDP growth for the calendar year. But by August, that had been revised to a 0.4% contraction, with a deep decline in the June quarter. The RBNZ chose to cut the Official Cash Rate from 5.50% to 5.25% last Wednesday partly in response to these lower economic activity fo...
Aug 17, 2024•25 min•Ep. 1372
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the gloomsters are going to have to wait even longer for a US slowdown and 'recession'. Markets are reducing the chance of a Fed rate cut in mid-September. First up in the US, initial jobless claims came in less than last week, a surprise because an increase was expected. Bu...
Aug 15, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1371
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news inflation data in both the US and UK keeps rate cuts in play. The widely-anticipated July American inflation rate came in largely as expected, dipping slightly to 2.9% from 3% in June. That is its lowest level since March 2021. The "core" rate dipped to 3.2%. Rents were up...
Aug 14, 2024•4 min•Ep. 1370
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the downturn in China is something that could quickly spread regionally. But first up today, the rise in retail sales at physical stores in the US was +4.7% last week, off the pace of the prior week's +5.1% gain, but still a healthy economic sign, and still well above inf...
Aug 13, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1369
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news that is second tier today ahead of a string of key data releases. But there are many interesting bits today all the same. First in the US, a national NY Fed survey of consumer expectations in July showed medium term inflation expectations are falling. The three-year-ahead i...
Aug 12, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1368
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news China is struggling to revive consumer interest in spending and consumption. But first, this coming week the key focus will be on the RBNZ Monetary Policy Review on Wednesday. A feature of the past month has been the volatility in the financial market pricing of this upcomin...
Aug 11, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1367
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news Monday's equity dump is now a fading memory. First up, the latest signals from the US labour market are that there is no rising stress. Initial jobless claims came in less than expected at 203,000 and there are now 1.9 mln people on these benefits. Both are lower than last w...
Aug 08, 2024•4 min•Ep. 1366
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of a day of mostly restrained gains in economic metrics. First in the US, mortgage applications rose nearly +7% last week from the week before, driven by a sharpish -27 bps retreat in mortgage interest rates. Despite the gain, they are still -11% lower than the same week a...
Aug 07, 2024•4 min•Ep. 1365
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news global equity markets have essentially bounced back, consigning the Monday ructions to just a 'summer wobble'. But first up, there was another full dairy auction earlier today. It was a much larger event with more than 35,000 tonnes sold. Overall prices rose +0.5% from th...
Aug 06, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1364
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news equity markets are under severe pressure today, in ' extreme fear ' mode. And that is despite the current economic activity signals being relatively sanguine. First in the US, the widely watched ISM service sector PMI bounced back to expansion in July with a better reading ...
Aug 05, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1363
The balance of power in the labour market sits firmly with employers, with a big rise in job applicants over the past year chasing a significantly diminished number of jobs, says Frog Recruitment Managing Director Shannon Barlow. "For our recruitment agency, we're probably experiencing around three to four times the volume of applications compared with last year. And that's across the board, across different industries and job types," Barlow says in the latest episode of interest.co.nz's Of Inte...
Aug 04, 2024•27 min•Ep. 1361
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news investors globally are having a re-think about the valuation rises that have gotten embedded since the pandemic. Warren Buffett is now cashed up. But before that, although it will be a relatively quiet week for international economic data releases, it is a big week at home. ...
Aug 04, 2024•7 min•Ep. 1362
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the global bond market is rallying (prices up, yields down) with traders now pricing in three US Fed rate cuts before the end of the year. There is a sudden risk-off mood appearing today. We should remind ourselves that the Northern Hemisphere is well into its summer vacatio...
Aug 01, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1360
The Government's push to have more apartments, including shoebox apartments, built should be welcomed over time by a range of buyers including first home buyers, property investors and retirees, suggests John Bolton, founder of mortgage broker, lender and savings product provider Squirrel. Speaking in a new episode of interest.co.nz's Of Interest podcast , Bolton, also a former banker who has dabbled in property development , says apartments, including small ones, offer people who otherwise coul...
Aug 01, 2024•30 min•Ep. 1359
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news two big central banks have been active in their signaling over the past 24 hours. First up today, as many expected the US Fed sent a clear signal that they are more open to a September rate cut. That first came from changed wording in their no-change statement that was mor...
Jul 31, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1358
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the Bank of Japan will grab the headlines later today. But first up, there was another dairy auction event overnight, the shorter Pulse event of SMP and WMP only. This one delivered results very little-changed from the prior event last week, essentially locking in those e...
Jul 30, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1357
