Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news in the growing shadow of upcoming central bank decisions. Financial markets are having a toughish time reading the tea-leaves on what the US Fed will do at this week's meeting. The PCE result for June left open every interpretation and the prior presumption of a September r...
Jul 29, 2024•4 min•Ep. 1356
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news we may now be much closer to rate cuts in some major economies. But first, this week we are looking at some big set-piece data and policy items from the US, mainly at the end of the week. The week will end with their non-farm payrolls and another +185,000 gain is expected th...
Jul 28, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1355
Mainstream economics courses teach students money is a scarce resource and nature has boundless capacity to be exploited when in fact it's the other way around, argues Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) economist Steven Hail. Advocates say you don't do MMT, rather it's a description of how the monetary system works. And countries like New Zealand, where the Government - via the Reserve Bank - is the monopoly issuer of a fiat currency, are monetary sovereigns and thus can't run out of money. "We think ...
Jul 26, 2024•48 min•Ep. 1354
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the rise of the US economy and the slowdown in China that Beijing can't seem to arrest is twisting a vast cast of supporting economies and their currencies. The NZD and AUD are devaluing faster now. First up today, the giant American economy grew much more than expected as r...
Jul 25, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1353
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news that despite good economic data, Wall Street equity prices are tanking today as it downs in investors they have been far too bullish on AI prospects. But first, there were July 'flash' PMIs released today. The American one is quite positive, especially for their service se...
Jul 24, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1352
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news lower commodity prices spread more widely overnight and a dark mood flowed over Chinese equity markets late yesterday. But first, there was a GDT Pulse auction event overnight. Basically prices fell. The SMP price was down a bit more than expected, down -2.8% from last we...
Jul 23, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1351
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news it’s been a toughish night for commodity currencies as markets mark down these prospects. That has been true for both hard and soft commodities, although it is more of a sag than a significant fall. In the US, the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index rose again, although t...
Jul 22, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1350
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the economies of most major powers are in good shape and their companies are prospering. But for those who follow such things, we should note that President Biden has decided not to run in the Presidential election in November, stepping aside. The race for the Democratic nom...
Jul 21, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1349
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news policymakers are still struggling with the last-mile gains in their war on inflation. But first, the number of Americans making initial jobless claims rose last week and by slightly more than expected. That takes them back to early June levels and while not high, it does arr...
Jul 18, 2024•4 min•Ep. 1348
New Zealand's nascent private credit industry could account for up to 5% of business lending to operating companies over time, suggests Aotea Asset Management (AAM) executive director Will Carnachan. AAM, which launched three years ago, is a corporate debt fund manager organising wholesale investors to contribute to direct secured loans to businesses. Private credit, a form of shadow banking, has made headlines in the US, Europe and Australia over the past couple of years. The International Mone...
Jul 18, 2024•41 min•Ep. 1347
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news American data is improving in a steady way without deficit or labour market stresses, so conditions seem right for monetary policy 'normalisation' to be completed. First, American mortgage applications rose an unusual +3.9% last week from a week ago to be -14% lower than t...
Jul 17, 2024•4 min•Ep. 1346
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the IMF seems the global economy in a "sticky spot". But first up today we can report that the overnight dairy auction defied recent trends and the futures market. Instead of another retreat, in fact it held, virtually unchanged (+0.4). But the two key powders did decline...
Jul 16, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1345
Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of the unavoidable reporting of a Chinese economic stumble. But first up today, we should note that Fed boss Powell was speaking and said the three American inflation readings in the June quarter do "add somewhat to confidence" that the pace of price increases is returning to the Fe...
Jul 15, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1344
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news other than the crazy American political campaign which just seems to feed conspiracy narratives. We will ignore that and just concentrate on the data. This coming week, all eyes will be on the New Zealand CPI rate for Q2-2024 which will be released on Wednesday. Preview here...
Jul 14, 2024•7 min•Ep. 1343
The Reserve Bank surprised the market on Wednesday by dropping hints it was open to cutting rates sooner than planned , due to signs the economy was getting too weak. While the tone shift was unexpected, the central bank was reacting to the same data which had caused ASB’s economics team to change their own interest rate forecast the week prior. Nick Tuffley, the retail bank’s chief economist, said economic data was sending very different signals in July than it had been prior to the RBNZ’s meet...
Jul 13, 2024•30 min•Ep. 1342
New Zealand exporters to the United States might be at greater risk of being disrupted than those exporting to China, according to one trade expert. Despite talk about the need to diversify away from China due to geopolitical differences, it may be the United States that hits Kiwi businesses with tariffs intended to shut them out. Stephen Jacobi, the executive director of the NZ International Business Forum, said a second Trump presidency was a “sword of Damocles hanging over the global economy”...
Jul 12, 2024•35 min•Ep. 1341
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news inflation's pressures seem to be cooling in all the world's major economies. But first, in seasonally-adjusted terms, the number of people claiming American unemployment benefits fell last week by -17,000 from the prior week and a 5-week low, and below market expectations of...
Jul 11, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1340
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news global trade distortions seem to be growing. But first, after three weeks of gains (some quite minor though), last week US mortgage application levels fell again, and are now down -13% lower than the same weak week a year ago. The push back up of benchmark mortgage rates -...
Jul 10, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1339
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the US Fed is setting the scene for rate cuts down the track. When remains uncertain but financial markets have priced one in fully by November. The next big piece of relevant US data is Friday's CPI release. But first up today, even though futures markets indicated WMP w...
Jul 09, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1338
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of little global fallout from the weekend election results. First up today, we should note that American consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead slipped for a second consecutive month to now be +3%. That is 'progress' from 3.2% in May. The decline was broad-based...
Jul 08, 2024•4 min•Ep. 1337
that in the three elections held over the weekend, 'democracy' seems to be signaling a rejection of the hard-line and hard-right. But first in the week ahead the main event will be Wednesday's RBNZ OCR review. But there will be other important global data released as well, including the American CPI and PPI results for June. China will release its versions of inflation monitoring as well, and the data on new yuan loans. India will release its June CPI data too, plus industrial production data fo...
Jul 07, 2024•7 min•Ep. 1336
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news global container freight rates are rising to ridiculous levels now, just another element that is stifling world trade. But first up, we should note that it is a public holiday in the US; Independence Day. And it is likely that many will take tomorrow off as well to make a fo...
Jul 04, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1335
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news that while the world's politics is getting messier and more partisan, the world's big economies are basically doing ok. First up today, the US Fed released the minutes of its June 13 (NZT) meeting and those show it is in no hurry to cut its policy rate. But they do seem to...
Jul 03, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1334
Dairy prices nosedive. US data quite positive. China housing woes deepen. Inflation low in South Korea & EU. RBA minutes leave rate hike on table.
Jul 02, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1333
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the final round of Australian tax cuts have come into effect. But first, the updated factory PMIs for the giant US economy have brought another diverging set. The S&P Global/Markit one , the internationally-benchmarked version, reported a rise based on a new order expan...
Jul 01, 2024•4 min•Ep. 1332
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news July starts on shaky ground everywhere although the ground is firmer in the US than China. As this is the first week of July, it will be heavy with PMI survey results everywhere (except New Zealand). But the most important release this week will be the American labour market...
Jun 30, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1331
The first New Zealand and international wave of electric vehicle (EV) uptake is probably over, with cheaper cars and better public charging infrastructure required for further major growth in the uptake of these "batteries on wheels," says James Foster. In a new episode of interest.co.nz's Of Interest podcast , Foster, who runs the EVDB website , says EVs reaching price parity with internal combustion engine (petrol) vehicles, will be a very significant development. The rise of Chinese EVs shoul...
Jun 28, 2024•48 min•Ep. 1330
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news food price signals belie talk of impending trouble. But first, US mortgage applications were virtually unchanged last week (+0.8%) from the week before, taking them to -13% lower than the same week a year ago. But at least it was a third week of rises, even if small. Mortg...
Jun 26, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1329
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news questions remain about whether inflation's fall can be maintained. Today is another shadow day with mostly second-tier data released, but some of it is interesting all the same. First in the US, retail sales at physical stores were up +5.3% last week from the same week a ...
Jun 25, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1328
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news a quiet data week is bringing more focus to larger systemic issues. Today, in the absence of key data releases, we should note that after the GFC, regulators moved aggressively to get banks out of holding riskier assets. But that space has been filled by non-bank financial ...
Jun 24, 2024•4 min•Ep. 1327
