Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the pressure is on China to revive its fast-slowing momentum. First however, this week will bring some key American data covering durable goods orders and PCE inflation data on Friday (NZT), new and pending house sales, and the Conference Board's consumer sentiment survey re...
Jun 23, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1326
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news that the start of Summer in the northern hemisphere brings excessive heat and ominous food security and immigration implications. But first, initial US jobless claims slipped slightly last week after the prior week's rise. They remain low at +227,000 even if the level is its...
Jun 20, 2024•4 min•Ep. 1325
Ask Cameron Bagrie how to improve business and rural banking and some words reoccur in his answers. Three of them are "risk", "productivity", and "bankability." With two parliamentary select committees set to hold an inquiry into banking competition , the business and rural banking markets will feature, unlike in the Commerce Commission probe into competition in the personal banking market. In the latest episode of interest.co.nz's Of Interest podcast , Bagrie, now of Bagrie Economics and Chaper...
Jun 20, 2024•27 min•Ep. 1324
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of some very large global tensions starting to boil hotter. But first, mortgage applications in the US rose by +0.9% in the second week of June, extending the +16% surge from the previous week, which was the sharpest weekly increase since the start of 2023. Their monitorin...
Jun 19, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1323
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news expectations for a rate cut any time soon in Australia have faded significantly after the RBA's MPS yesterday. But first, the overnight dairy auction brought slightly lower prices overall, down -0.5% although they were unchanged in NZD terms. WMP was sold in to weakish de...
Jun 18, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1322
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the steam seems to be going out of the Chinese economy as their property sector woes just drag on and on. But first, although it is still retreating, the June New York factory survey improved sharply from May, with firms there increasingly positive about the next six months...
Jun 17, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1321
By Gareth Vaughan How seriously is the public sector taking the fight against money laundering and terrorism financing? This question comes up in a new episode of interest.co.nz's Of Interest podcast , featuring barrister and solicitor Fiona Hall and anti-money laundering auditor and consultant Martin Dilly. In a recent article the two raised concerns about impending job cuts to the team at the Department of Internal Affairs (DIA) tasked with supervising compliance with the Anti-Money Laundering...
Jun 17, 2024•47 min•Ep. 1320
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of some slippage in the world's largest economies. However, in the week ahead we will get central bank rate review decisions from China, Norway, the UK, and Switzerland. Of special interest to us will be Tuesday's one in Australia. No change is expected there at 4.35%, but t...
Jun 16, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1319
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news some think the first signs of a labour market in the US are showing. Initial American actual jobless claims "jumped" last week to +235,000, above the expected +225,000 and to the highest level since August 2023. This may be the early signs that their labour market is softeni...
Jun 13, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1318
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the US expansion rolls on, pushing back the timing of when interest rate normalisation will happen. US CPI inflation came in lower than expected for May, slowing to 3.3%, the lowest in three months. In April it was 3.4% and forecasts for May were 3.4%. While this rise was ...
Jun 12, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1317
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news that will all be overshadowed tomorrow by two key pieces of US data, their CPI and the Fed monetary policy decisions. Today, the American Redbook retail indicator came in +5.5% higher than year-ago levels, continuing its track well above inflation and showing a positi...
Jun 11, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1316
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the EU parliamentary election jolt has everyone's attention. But first in the US, in the four months December to March, consumer inflation expectations held steady at 3%. Then in April they rose 3.3%, and this latest NY Fed survey shows them easing somewhat to 3.2%. The...
Jun 10, 2024•4 min•Ep. 1315
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the IMF is starting to worry that the US expansion could become unsustainable unless it is matched by national productivity gains. But first we should note that it is a public holiday in Australia today. However all eyes this week will be on Thursday (NZT) when the US Fe...
Jun 09, 2024•8 min•Ep. 1314
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news global trade is facing a tough challenge in containerised freight costs. But first, initial new US jobless claims actually fell modestly last week to +195,000 (although the seasonally adjusted level rose). There are now 1.67 mln people on these jobless benefits. All this...
Jun 06, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1313
The Australian Government's a Future Made in Australiainitiative could attract skilled migrants and potentially investment and entrepreneurs from New Zealand, and ultimately be a catalyst for a much more sustainable future, says Kylie Walker, the CEO of the Australian Academy of Technological Sciences & Engineering. In last month's budget, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's government unveiled a Future Made in Australia , saying this would invest A$22.7 billion over a decade to "build a stron...
Jun 05, 2024•30 min•Ep. 1312
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news some central banks have started to cut policy rates, others are contemplating long holds or even rises. But first, US mortgage applications fell a sharpish -5.2% in the last week of May from the prior week to be -13% lower than the same week a year ago, itself a weak l...
Jun 05, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1311
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news of some unexpected outcomes. The overnight dairy auction belied the futures market again somewhat, delivering modest rises across the board, probably because European production is sagging a bit more than expected. Demand from China was not strong, but other regions p...
Jun 04, 2024•4 min•Ep. 1310
US PMIs vary, US PCE inflation holds; Canada gets modest expansion; India gets huge expansion; Japan data good; China data weak; NZ to join IPEF.
Jun 03, 2024•9 min•Ep. 1309
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news weaker US data has halted the bond selloff. But first, the actual number of US initial jobless claims rose marginally last week, and the number of people on these benefits was actually unchanged from the prior week at 1.7 mln although that was a small increase from year-...
May 30, 2024•4 min•Ep. 1308
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news today is Budget Day. Join us at 2pm for full coverage of the new government's first full Budget. More broadly, US mortgage applications sank -5.7% last week from the previous week, the most since mid-February, and ending three consecutive rises. The retreat follows a f...
May 29, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1307
Kia ora, Welcome to Wedenesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news global markets are putting upward pressure on interest rates and that is spilling over to our local markets. In the US, and somewhat unexpectedly, consumer confidence rose in May in the latest Conference Board survey . This mirrors the University of Michigan version,...
May 28, 2024•4 min•Ep. 1306
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news of mostly second-tier indicators today. And that is because it is a public holiday in the US, Memorial Day, and financial markets are closed there. Tt is probably good that business is closed there for one major commercial real estate investor. Starwood Real Estate Inco...
May 27, 2024•4 min•Ep. 1305
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news American factory orders are rising and setting up a good second half of 2024. But first we should note that the US is on holiday today and tomorrow, their Memorial Day (like our ANZAC Day but with more retail). This marks the start of their summer season when investors t...
May 26, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1304
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news China seems to be making a play to avoided as an investment destination. But first, initial US jobless claims fell to just +192,000 last week when a small increase was anticipated. Still no labour market stress signals here. The total number of people on these benefits f...
May 23, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1303
The fund backing New Zealand's incoming depositor compensation scheme is going to be small, it's going to take a long time to reach its target level, and the lack of depositor preference in the scheme is a mistake, according to a deposit insurance expert. Geof Mortlock, an international financial regulatory consultant who does work for the International Monetary Fund and World Bank specialising in financial system stability, resolution of bank failures and deposit insurance, spoke about the depo...
May 23, 2024•38 min•Ep. 1302
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the American central bank is wondering if they have done enough yet to quash the inflation impulse. But first, US mortgage applications rose +1.9% last week from the previous week, adding to the 0.5% increase from that earlier week and taking it to an unusual third con...
May 22, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1301
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news we are looking for signs inflation is actually easing and policy interest rates can be adjusted lower. But first, at the overnight GDT dairy auction , prices rose a bit more than +3.3% from the prior event two weeks ago. That takes the price level back to where it was...
May 21, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1300
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news China seems to be struggling to find its way through the wreckage of its property crisis. The Chinese central bank left both its 1- and 5-year rates unchanged in their monthly review today, still at 3.45% and 3.95% respectively. The one year benchmark has been unchanged...
May 20, 2024•4 min•Ep. 1299
Renting in New Zealand today is more difficult than a decade ago, with fewer properties available, rents continuing to increase, and the quality of rental properties not much better, Shamubeel Eaqub says. However, the economist and co-author of the 2015 book Generation Rent, rethinking New Zealand's priorities , says it's not all bad news. Speaking in the latest episode of interest.co.nz's Of Interest podcast , Eaqub says the "lived reality of renting" has got harder over the past decade, but th...
May 20, 2024•38 min•Ep. 1298
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news metals prices eye a boost from the Chinese housing rescue. But first in the week ahead, it will be one dominated by the RBNZ's Wednesday Monetary Policy Statement, one that itself comes about a week before the new Government's first full Budget - and that too is likely t...
May 19, 2024•7 min•Ep. 1297
