Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the IMF reckons the way the Aussie home loan market is structured accentuates mortgage rate pain. But first in the US, consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead remained steady at 3% for a third consecutive month in March, holding at three-year lows. For three ...
Apr 08, 2024•4 min•Ep. 1266
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news investors are much less sure rate cuts will come in 2024. This week, given that American jobs growth remained strong in March, all eyes will now turn to their inflation data with CPI due out on Thursday. That is expected to show inflation rising there slightly to 3.5%, b...
Apr 07, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1265
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news markets don't seem to be worrying about coming 'bad news' ahead of tomorrow's US March labour markets report. US initial jobless claims recorded a minor +2000 rise last week from the week before taking the total to 1.94 mln. But that was a big -74,000 decrease as more be...
Apr 04, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1264
The departing Chief Executive of the Insurance Council of New Zealand says if Wellington is hit with an earthquake on a similar scale to the Canterbury quakes, it would “raise some questions” on whether NZ insurers would be able to continue to purchase reinsurance at an affordable cost. “I think reinsurers would still be there. But the ability to purchase reinsurance at a good rate and the degree of capacity that would be available, particularly for property in Wellington, could be really challe...
Apr 04, 2024•38 min•Ep. 1263
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news progress toward lower inflation is underway but the road is bumpy. But first up today we should note that American mortgage application levels decreased again last week. Their mortgage rates moved lower last week, but that did little to ignite overall mortgage applicat...
Apr 03, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1262
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news yields are climbing as markets recognise the Fed is serious about wanting to see sustained inflation at 2%, and the US economy just keeps on powering ahead. And that is hurting equity valuations. But first, the overnight dairy auction brought higher prices. In USD ter...
Apr 02, 2024•4 min•Ep. 1261
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news that global manufacturing indicators have turned quite positive. First in China, their official March PMIs have set a bullish tone to start the week. Their official factory PMI rose to 50.8 from 49.1 a month earlier and export orders also recovered. The official service...
Apr 01, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1260
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news natural events will likely have an increasing say in how the international economy operates. But first in the US, mortgage applications were lower last week again, and the good rises in the first two weeks of the month are fading. Even essentially unchanged mortgage in...
Mar 27, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1259
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news that is increasingly positive in the world's largest economy. First up today, the retail signals in the US are quite positive. Their Redbook survey of bricks-and-mortar store shows sales rose +3.9% last week from the same week a year ago, handily besting inflation aga...
Mar 26, 2024•4 min•Ep. 1258
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the American economic juggernaut rolls on, dominating global markets. American new home sales levels in February missed estimates, but ~7% mortgage interest rates basically explain that. They eased by a minor -0.3% from January to an annualised rate of 662,000, and belo...
Mar 25, 2024•4 min•Ep. 1257
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news all eyes are on China to see if they pull the trigger on their old stimulus playbook again. But first this week, the focal point in the United States will revolve around the PCE price indexes, and data on personal income and spending. Other key data include durable goods...
Mar 24, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1256
In five years' time we would see things we can't imagine today if the Government adopts the Commerce Commission's recommendations to boost competition for personal banking services, Commission Chairman John Small says. Speaking about the Commission's draft report from its banking market study in the latest episode of interest.co.nz's Of Interest podcast , Small says he'll be interested to see what sort of response the Commission gets from the big four banks, ANZ, ASB, BNZ and Westpac, who it say...
Mar 23, 2024•29 min•Ep. 1255
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with that is full of unexpected data and outcomes. US jobless claims fell last week to 190,000 and this was lower than expected. The number of people still on this unemployment insurance is lower too, at just over 2 mln. Neither signals growing labour market stress. The Philly Fed...
Mar 21, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1254
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the Fed has held its policy rate unchanged at 5.5% but given strong signals cuts are coming - but later than markets were expecting. However they still see three cuts in 2024. The UST 10yr yield fell slightly on the news. The US dollar fell slightly too. Wall Street mo...
Mar 20, 2024•4 min•Ep. 1253
With a United States presidential election looming in November, Patrick Watson, Senior Economic Analyst at Mauldin Economics , says it's difficult to say what the key economic battleground will be because many voters are "living in their own realities." Speaking in a new episode of interest.co.nz's Of Interest podcast , Watson says there's not a great deal of agreement on whether the US economy is even in good or bad shape. "If you ask Democrats, they mostly say the economy is fantastic. If you ...
Mar 19, 2024•30 min•Ep. 1252
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news of a week of big policy announcements with some potentially very big implications. First all eyes will be on Japan's rate review (tomorrow, Tuesday). Strong wage gains in Japan , and by much more than expected, are fueling speculation that that Bank of Japan won't wait a...
Mar 17, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1251
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news American data supports the Fed's cautious approach to its monetary policy management - pushing away imminent rate cuts. Benchmark rates have risen sharply. US new jobless claims came in less than expected when a rise was anticipated. There were less than 200,000 new actu...
Mar 14, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1250
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news China's inward turn is gathering pace as it fears foreign influence. But first, US mortgage applications rose strongly last week from the week before, up more than +6%. and that was because mortgage interest rates fell rather sharply, down nearly -20 bps in a week to ...
Mar 13, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1249
The "cheer squad" make it hard to have a proper debate on housing, especially when looking to address the question of what we want from the housing market from a public policy perspective. So says Cameron Murray, Chief Economist at Fresh Economic Thinking , a new Australian think-tank. In the latest episode of interest.co.nz's Of Interest podcast Murray talks about housing and his new book The Great Housing Hijack . He describes the housing markets and attitudes to housing in Australia and New Z...
Mar 13, 2024•39 min•Ep. 1248
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the never-ending car crash that is China's residential property development sector, took another bump today. But first in the US, their inflation rate unexpectedly edged up to 3.2% in February, compared to 3.1% in January and above forecasts of 3.1%. The closely-watch...
Mar 12, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1247
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news about how hard it is to get the 'last mile' of above-policy inflation accomplished. American consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead remained stuck and sticky at 3% in February, the same as in the previous two months, and holding at three-year lows. But is it...
Mar 11, 2024•4 min•Ep. 1246
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news China seems to have managed to arrest its deflationary mood with solid consumer spending in their Lunar New Year holiday. But first, in the week ahead, we get the important US CPI inflation rate on Wednesday, along with retail sales, producer inflation, the Michigan cons...
Mar 10, 2024•7 min•Ep. 1245
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news we seem to be "not far" from getting interest rate cuts from the central banks in the US and Europe - and perhaps an unusual hike from Japan. Tomorrow we get the important February US non-farm payrolls report, and today there are more precursor updates. The number of peo...
Mar 07, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1244
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the US Fed says it needs to see more progress on inflation before it considers a rate cut. But they hinted that a cut could be coming later this year. That was enough to see markets worldwide start pricing that in. Benchmark interest rates retreated everywhere. But fir...
Mar 06, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1243
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news that with a few notable exceptions, commodity prices are soft across the board. The overnight dairy auction brought a -2.3% retreat, principally because the powder prices fell. WMP was down -2.8% and SMP was down -5.2%. However cheese was up +4.0%, that only ingredien...
Mar 05, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1242
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news that non-China Asia seems to be on the rebound, and it is not just India driving it. Japanese corporate spending on plant and equipment in Q4-2023 jumped an unprecedented (and surprising) +16.4% from the same period a year earlier. It was very much more than was expecte...
Mar 04, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1241
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the world's factories are signaling quite varied status indications. But overall February saw global manufacturing show signs of renewed vigour. Output expanded for the second successive month, supported by the first increase in new order intakes since June 2022. The out...
Mar 03, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1240
China's economy remains mired in a post-Covid hangover like much of the rest of the world, but the technology, catering and tourism sectors are encouraging, according to David Mahon. Mahon, the Beijing-based Managing Director of Mahon China Investment Management, spoke to interest.co.nz in the latest episode of our Of Interest podcast . The relative weakness of the Chinese economy, compared to its rapid expansion of recent decades, amid ongoing concerns about the property market and deflation, h...
Mar 02, 2024•35 min•Ep. 1239
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news India is the world's bright economic star at the moment. But first in the US, the actual number of people claiming jobless benefits fell last week, but by less than expected to 194,000. Continuing jobless claims were unchanged at 2.1 mln, still the highest since November...
Feb 29, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1238
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the New Zealand currency and interest rates have fallen after the RBNZ dovish no-change Monetary Policy Statement as markets removed the factors that had priced in some risk for a rise. Firstly in the US, mortgage applications fell again last week and are now -12% belo...
Feb 28, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1237
