Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news American data is weaker today, and China is on a sharp turn inward. But first we should note bitcoin's sharp rise in price. However the surge seems to have run out of steam as you read this. But it is enough to note that prices are back to November 2021 high levels. I...
Feb 27, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1236
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news ahead of tomorrow's closely-watched RBNZ OCR decision. First in the US, new home sales rose but by less than expected. The tame result continues a now-long trend of sales levels that are not really growing. Of concern in this market is that they now have over eight mont...
Feb 26, 2024•4 min•Ep. 1235
Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news China is having a tough time sharking off its housing blues. However in the week ahead, the Americans will release PCE data that will be closely watched. They will also release updates for the ISM Manufacturing PMI, the second estimate of GDP growth rate, durable goods orders, co...
Feb 25, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1234
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news that while all the market chatter is about the spectacular rise of Nvidia and the emergence of AI as a "new industry", the rest of the global economy seems to be generally expanding modestly. But first up, we should note it is a public holiday in Japan, the world's fourt...
Feb 22, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1233
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news markets are awaiting signals from the minutes of the late January Fed meeting. In the US, mortgage applications fell rather sharply last week, down more than -10% from the prior week to be -13% lower than a year ago. A key reason for the sharpish pullback was an unexpe...
Feb 21, 2024•4 min•Ep. 1232
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with both the US and China are both back from holiday breaks - to lackluster prospects. But first, the GDT dairy auction earlier today resulted in little overall change (+0.5%), although the strengthening NZD did push the result in local currently lower (-1.1%). This auction di...
Feb 20, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1231
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with global eyes are on how China will manage itself out of its economic funk. First a reminder that it is a public holiday in the US, holiday, Presidents Day, and financial markets are closed there. To the north, Canada said it's producer prices fell marginally in January from D...
Feb 19, 2024•4 min•Ep. 1230
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with all eyes will be on China this week, especially its financial markets, as it returns from a week-long holiday. In the week ahead, there will only be second-tier data and events. The Fed's FOMC will drop the minutes of its late January meeting on Thursday, NZT. They will be wa...
Feb 18, 2024•7 min•Ep. 1229
The coalition government's select committee banking inquiry could look at how to encourage banks to lend more to "productive" sectors of the economy rather than having such a big focus on "unproductive" housing lending, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says. The National-NZ First coalition agreement says the government will establish a select committee inquiry into banking competition "with broad and deep criteria to focus on competitiveness, customer services, and profitabili...
Feb 18, 2024•36 min•Ep. 1228
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with the giant US economy is putting most other major economies in its shadow, expanding while others stumble. But first, the number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the US fell by -12,500 from the prior week to 222,000, firmly below market estimates. It was the lowest ...
Feb 15, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1227
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with supply is rising and demand is shifting away for energy intensity and efficiency reasons, so oil prices are falling. Crude oil prices are falling quite sharply today because the latest US EIA data showed a surge of over +12 mln barrels in American crude oil stocks last week...
Feb 14, 2024•4 min•Ep. 1226
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with a miss on US core inflation has markets moving a lot today. The highly anticipated American inflation rate for January fell back to 3.1% at the headline level following a brief increase to 3.4% in December, but the more important core rate came higher than forecasts of 2.9...
Feb 13, 2024•4 min•Ep. 1225
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news of a warning of a permanent downgrade on asset quality that will affect banks worldwide. But with Japan, China and Singapore all on holiday, global economic news is a bit thin today. First up, American inflation expectations seem to be easing, even if the changes are sm...
Feb 12, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1224
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news bank lending distortions are catching attention in both China and the US. But first in the week ahead, all eyes will be on the American CPI data which comes out on Wednesday - and the following Fed speaker reactions. The US also releases retail sales data and PPI data th...
Feb 11, 2024•7 min•Ep. 1223
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news that the rest of the world doesn't actually need an expanding China. Their financial market struggles are - so far at least - having little impact elsewhere even as some investors take sharp losses in the Middle Kingdom, especially on bonds. The strength of the US labour...
Feb 08, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1222
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news global trade seems to be less of a driving feature of the international economy even if it remains important and there are plenty of shifts. And despite that, the NZD is rising. But first up today, US mortgage applications bounced back last week after the prior week's ...
Feb 07, 2024•4 min•Ep. 1221
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the US economy is powering a global expansion, covering a weakening Chinese economy. But first up, the overnight dairy auction was a good one. Prices rose another +4.2% and are now up +5.4% since the start of the year and up +3.3% above year-ago levels, the largest ye...
Feb 06, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1220
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news economic conditions in China are in focus today. But first looking ahead, this week we get second tier American data around trade and PMIs (especially for services). It is the same in many other countries including China and Australia. Chinese CPI and PPI data is due thi...
Feb 04, 2024•8 min•Ep. 1219
New Zealand should be working towards a 100-year planning horizon when it comes to infrastructure, and viewing planning as "an exercise in dynamism and inquisition" rather than a "bureaucratic exercise." That's the view of Geoff Cooper, General Manager of Strategy at the New Zealand Infrastructure Commission. Speaking in interest.co.nz's Of Interest podcast , Cooper argues planning gets a bad rap. "It's seen as a bureaucratic exercise and it should be seen as an exercise in dynamism and inquisit...
Feb 02, 2024•41 min•Ep. 1218
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news there are some significant jitters being felt in a widening range of banks globally as debt maturities for commercial property spook everyone. But first in the US, the number of people claiming for jobless benefits rose for a second consecutive week to the highest level ...
Feb 01, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1217
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news financial markets are now more convinced rate cuts will be coming in 2024 as inflation transitions away. First up today we should note that the US Fed will announce the results of its latest FOMC meeting soon, at 8am NZT. No-one is expecting them to change any rates to...
Jan 31, 2024•7 min•Ep. 1216
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the IMF now expects a global soft landing in 2024 and 2025 after authorities seem to have successfully quelled inflation. But first, an update on dairy prices. We mistakenly signaled a full GDT dairy auction overnight in our report yesterday. But we got that wrong; it...
Jan 30, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1215
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the world's largest property developer is to be dismembered and liquidated. First up today, while you may already know the headline, we must note that Evergrande has been forced into liquidation by a Hong Kong court . While this may not strictly qualify as a 'surprise' ...
Jan 29, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1214
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news China's debt problems are just growing and more investors are worried. But first, in the week ahead we will get some key data. In the US, they have a Fed rate review on Thursday and markets will be eyeing signals about when rates might move. Some think a March cut is com...
Jan 28, 2024•7 min•Ep. 1213
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the giant US economy grew by +US$1.4 tln in 2023, shrugging off all recession predictions. US initial jobless claims rose last week, and by more than expected, but were still at near the bottom of their ranges. There are now 2.06 mln people on these benefits, lower than ...
Jan 25, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1212
Although the war on inflation is being won, there are still battles to come and it's too soon to expect Reserve Bank interest rate cuts, says Kiwibank Chief Economist Jarrod Kerr. Speaking to interest.co.nz for the first 2024 episode of our Of Interest podcast , Kerr says the cost of living crisis is improving for households and businesses. "We are winning the war on inflation but there are a few battles ahead and a few wins that we need over this year. We think inflation will fall to 3% quite q...
Jan 25, 2024•31 min•Ep. 1211
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news China has rolled out what might be the first in a set of ¥1 tln stimulus/recovery moves. But first, American mortgage applications rose for a third consecutive week last week, up +3.7% even though there was little movement on benchmark interest rates. Perhaps this mark...
Jan 24, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1210
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news reports of an impending large Chinese share market rescue that were enough to stop falls there yesterday. But first, it is an important day here in New Zealand because we get the Q4-2023 inflation data at 10:45am. That will set the tone for our OCR direction for the f...
Jan 23, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1209
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news investors are marking down Chinese equities in a brutal retrenchment Beijing doesn't seem to be able to arrest. Funds are fleeing to Tokyo and the US both of which reached modern record highs. But first in the US, a closely-watched leading indicator metric slipped margi...
Jan 22, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1208
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with good economic news that just keeps coming even as fears don't abate. First, for those returning to work, welcome back. For those still on holiday, lucky you. This coming week we will get some grunty American data along with the meat of their earnings reports for December resu...
Jan 21, 2024•7 min•Ep. 1207
