Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news supply-chain pressures are about to hit global trading patterns again. But first, US jobless claims were relatively low last week. In fact, seasonally, new claims fell to levels we last saw in September 2022, and continuing claims down to October 2023 levels. Those losin...
Jan 18, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1206
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the strains in the Chinese economy are grabbing market attention today. But first, it is mostly upbeat economic news from the US. American mortgage applications were up +10% last week as this market shows signs of stirring again. Benchmark mortgage rates slipped with t...
Jan 17, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1205
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news expectations for US Fed rate cuts in 2023 were scaled back by financial markets overnight on Fed-speak commenting. Benchmark bond yields rose. But first, the overnight dairy auction was a 'good' one with prices up +2.25% in USD terms, and boosted by a falling NZD to b...
Jan 16, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1204
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news in the shadow of closed American markets. First, remember today is a public holiday in the US - Martin Luther King Birthday. Both the bond and stock markets are closed. First we should note that the Davos talkfest is underway again. It will have no impact this year desp...
Jan 15, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1203
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news inflation's impulse seems to be easing worldwide. In the week ahead, the big international data will focus on the Q3 Chinese GDP result on Wednesday. In the US, the data will be second tier this coming week, although Q4 earnings reports will be released in a swelling tid...
Jan 14, 2024•7 min•Ep. 1202
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we have a quick news wrap-up so you can get back to your 'time-off'. First, American inflation has proved more sticky than markets had hoped, up to 3.4% in December, a rise from a five-month low of 3.1% in November. Market had expected a 3.2% rate. Energy prices went down at a slower pace...
Jan 11, 2024•5 min•Ep. 1201
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we have a quick news wrap-up so you can get back to your 'time-off'. First, after the sharp fall in the two week Christmas holiday period, American mortgage applications recovered as strongly last week. Average mortgage rates were little-changed at 6.81%, plus points. More generally, Bl...
Jan 10, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1200
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we have a quick news wrap-up so you can get back to your 'time-off'. First, American retail is still rising at an increasing rate , up +5.9% last week on a bricks & mortar same-store basis. The gains above inflation are mounting, with Q4-2023 putting in an impressive performance an...
Jan 09, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1199
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we have a quick news wrap-up so you can get back to your 'time-off'. Firstly, for those who missed yesterday's update, we now expect the Barfoot December results tomorrow (Wednesday). We start today in the US, with lower inflation expectations for both food and rent that are depowering p...
Jan 08, 2024•4 min•Ep. 1198
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we have a quick news wrap-up so you can get back to your 'time-off'. In the week ahead, we will be on the lookout for the Barfoot December sales result. It in fact may come later this morning if last year's schedule is any indication. In the United States this week, the main focus will be...
Jan 07, 2024•7 min•Ep. 1197
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with a quick news wrap-up so you can get back to your 'time-off'. We are still seeing geopolitics and great power rivalry upending some parts of the global economy, and oil prices as a consequence, but generally conditions are quite stable-to-positive which is perhaps a bit of a s...
Jan 04, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1196
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with a quick news wrap-up so you can get back to your 'time-off'. First, the closely-watched US ISM factory PMI contracted again in December, but by less than expected and less than in November. But the number of months in contraction is now mounting; now its 14th straight month...
Jan 03, 2024•6 min•Ep. 1195
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with a quick news wrap-up so you can get back to your 'time-off'. First, we kick off the New Year with another dairy auction , this one again modestly positive. The key WMP price was up +2.5% from the prior event. Butter was up +2.1%. But both cheddar cheese and SMP eased. Over...
Jan 02, 2024•8 min•Ep. 1194
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with generally positive news in the US, but extended worries about China's property sector. After quite a jump in the prior week, American mortgage application levels slipped last week and for the first time in six weeks, despite a hefty retreat in benchmark 30 year mortgage int...
Dec 20, 2023•6 min•Ep. 1193
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we should note some more suggestions that the global hard landing may be even further away. The 'soft landing' has actually happened and that's despite wars, China's stumbles and trade tussles. But we start today with the results of the final dairy auction of the year and the results a...
Dec 19, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1192
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead 2023 is winding down with mixed outlooks in what may look like second tier data and events, but some of which could blow up over the holiday period. In the US, house builder sentiment has turned higher . The closely-watched Housing Market Index has risen from its lowest in nearly...
Dec 18, 2023•4 min•Ep. 1191
Following COP28's call for a transition away from fossil fuels, a key test will be how quickly a rethink of the market capitalisation of oil and gas companies starts emerging, says Rod Oram. Fresh from attending COP28 in Dubai, Newsroom journalist Oram spoke to interest.co.nz for the latest episode of our Of Interest podcast . COP28, or the 28th meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, was overseen by its president Sultan Ahmed al-Jab...
Dec 18, 2023•39 min•Ep. 1190
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with the 'final' week of shopping is here for the holiday season and most analysts are focussed on what that reveals about economies worldwide. Also in the coming week the American data releases are mostly second-tier but there will be special interest in their PCE inflation, dura...
Dec 17, 2023•6 min•Ep. 1189
By Gareth Vaughan The first-half of 2024 is likely to be tough with rising unemployment and more businesses failing as the economy "bounces along the bottom," says BNZ Head of Research Stephen Toplis. In a new episode of interest.co.nz's Of Interest podcast , Toplis delves into the swathe of domestic economic data from the past week including Gross Domestic Product, migration, Statistics New Zealand's Selected Price Indexes, the Real Estate Institute's latest monthly housing data, the current ac...
Dec 16, 2023•36 min•Ep. 1188
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news global interest rates are on the move. The big news is the sharp dive in wholesale benchmark interest rates. And American benchmark mortgage interest rates have fallen below 7% for the first time since August. But first, American jobless claims fell last week and by more...
Dec 14, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1187
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news we are waiting on the US Fed. Financial markets are in limbo, cautious ahead of the US central bank's monetary policy meeting results that will be released at 8am NZT today. We will update our webside when these details are released. They are widely expected to keep th...
Dec 13, 2023•6 min•Ep. 1186
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news financial markets are now turning their eyes to the US Fed meeting results tomorrow after it became clear today that while still easing, wringing the last bit of inflation's impulse from their economy could be tougher than first thought. The US Fed targets 2%. The Ame...
Dec 12, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1185
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news we have some major set piece central bank meetings this week and there is a growing feeling they will each try to challenge investors' expectations of 2024 interest rate cuts. But first, American consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead fell to 3.4% in Novembe...
Dec 11, 2023•4 min•Ep. 1184
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news that a lot happened so let's get into it. In the week ahead we will get the US Fed's interest rate decision, and American inflation and retail sales data. We will also get central bank updates from the ECB, the Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank, Norges Bank, and B...
Dec 10, 2023•8 min•Ep. 1183
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news we are in the shadow of tomorrow's US non-farm payrolls report which will give an important steer on where the world's largest economy is heading. But there were some labour market indicators out today ahead of that report. First, jobless claims rose last week. However, ...
Dec 07, 2023•4 min•Ep. 1182
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the world's economy seems to be ending the year in a flat funk. Momentum has leaked away and financial markets are sensing a fairly bleak 2024. However American mortgage applications rose by +2.8% last week from the prior week, marking the fifth consecutive weekly incr...
Dec 06, 2023•6 min•Ep. 1181
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news Moody's has downgraded the Chinese economy's outlook. First up today however there was a dairy auction overnight and that came in with a minor +1.6% gain in USD terms, although only a +0.5% rise in NZD terms. Rather oddly, most of the major components managed better r...
Dec 05, 2023•6 min•Ep. 1180
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news major global trade choke-points are under threat and this may bring very costly work-arounds. But first in the US, October factory orders fell sharply and by more than expected. They fell -3.6% from September to be down -1.4% from the same month a year ago. But to be fa...
Dec 04, 2023•4 min•Ep. 1179
Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr says he's "extremely confident" the world is heading back to a period of low inflation, saying the central bank is prepared to do "whatever it takes" to achieve its mandate of low and stable inflation. Speaking in in the latest episode of interest.co.nz's Of Interest podcast , Orr talks about the reaction from financial markets to last week's Reserve Bank monetary policy review , what its Monetary Policy Committee members will be watching between now and when the...
Dec 04, 2023•35 min•Ep. 1178
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the social consequences of the Chinese economic slowdown are just not going away. But first, there were a flurry of factory PMIs released over the weekend confirming a global manufacturing downturn remains, even it is minor. But not minor is the widely-watched US ISM ver...
Dec 03, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1177
