Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news global inflation is coming down as energy cost pressures recede. And so far it hasn't been at the expense of global economic expansion. But first today, US headline jobless claims rose but the increase was minor and less than expected. On an actual basis the fall was rat...
Nov 30, 2023•6 min•Ep. 1176
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the OECD doesn't see New Zealand's OCR being cut until 2025. But first, American mortgage application levels were little-changed last week from the prior week and are now running -19% lower than a year ago as the lower base settles in. Mortgage rates dipped again, but ...
Nov 29, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1175
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news markets are reacting to US Fed views that 'everything is on track' and no more rate rises are likely. Firstly though, the first indications of bricks & mortar store retail sales for last week are coming through with the US Redbook index up an impressive +6.3% from...
Nov 28, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1174
On the 22nd of November, while the National Party was putting the finishing touches on its coalition agreement, the European Union (EU) ratified a new trade deal with New Zealand. It was the latest in a long line of agreements NZ has struck since 1983, but it could be the last. Speaking in in the latest episode of interest.co.nz's Of Interest podcast , John Ballingall, a partner at economic consultancy firm Sense Partners, says NZ may have reached “peak FTA” as there aren’t any likely or worthwh...
Nov 28, 2023•35 min•Ep. 1173
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news of falling wholesale rates in the US and rising equity risks in China. First in the US, the one corner of there housing market that has been expanding - the sales of new homes - dipped in October. Sales of new single-family houses fell by 5.6% to an annualised rate of 6...
Nov 27, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1172
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the early indications are that end of year retailing might be coming in with more upside than expected. But first, this week, all eyes will be on the RBNZ Monetary Policy Review on Wednesday even though no change in the benchmark policy rate is anticipated. We will also ...
Nov 26, 2023•6 min•Ep. 1171
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news we again need to keep an eye on an outbreak of respiratory illness in China that has rapidly filled hospitals there. But first, with both the US and Japan on holiday, data from other countries are getting a chance to shine through today. But holiday season retail sales a...
Nov 23, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1170
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news central bank bosses have been out warning of inflation and economic stress. But first in the US, their Thanksgiving holiday has brought forward some key data releases. First up, the headline jobless claims numbers came in sharply lower than expected, indicating the Ame...
Nov 22, 2023•4 min•Ep. 1169
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news China's rapidly changing demographics are weighing heavily on the country. But first, and maybe related, today's dairy auction was a weak one. Prices were only very marginally lower in USD terms, but they fell -2.2% in NZD terms as our currency rose overnight. The key...
Nov 21, 2023•4 min•Ep. 1168
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news it seems to be the season for some "shock therapy" - from OpenAI to Argentina. Byt first in the US, this is the lead-up week to their long Thanksgiving holiday weekend, a four-day Thursday-to-Sunday work-break - for many. Wednesday is usually a travel crush day. Thursda...
Nov 20, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1167
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news some eyes are on the cliff-hanger election is Argentina. It is turning out to be very close. But first, in the week ahead, the main focus will be on the Fed meeting minutes followed by American durable goods orders, manufacturing PMIs, and some housing market data. We wi...
Nov 19, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1166
Although trading in foreign exchange markets is inherently very risky, the Reserve Bank (RBNZ) boosting its capacity to do so makes sense both from monetary policy and financial stability perspectives, Westpac New Zealand Chief Economist Kelly Eckhold says. Speaking in in the latest episode of interest.co.nz's Of Interest podcast , Eckhold whoformerly worked as the RBNZ's manager of foreign reserves and at the International Monetary Fund, says the RBNZ's foreign currency intervention capacity is...
Nov 18, 2023•35 min•Ep. 1165
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news of some weaker American data overnight that has brought a risk-off tone to financial markets and a pull-away from commodity currencies like the NZD. US jobless claims rose marginally last week but the weekly series of small rises are now adding up and they are now at the...
Nov 16, 2023•4 min•Ep. 1164
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news American data points to the soft landing the US Fed has been looking for as it seems to have successfully navigated the inflation transition. But first we should note that President Xi has arrived in San Francisco for the APEC meeting, his first visit to the US in five...
Nov 15, 2023•7 min•Ep. 1163
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news markets sense the US Fed is about to say it is done raising rates In the US, their annual inflation rate slowed to 3.2% in October from 3.7% in both September and August, and below market forecasts of 3.3%. Core inflation retreated to 4.0%, also a touch less than expe...
Nov 14, 2023•4 min•Ep. 1162
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with the Americans face yet another government shutdown threat from disorganised partisans in Congress. But first today, the respected NY Fed American inflation expectations survey was actually little changed. Consumers said in October that inflation for the year ahead will be to...
Nov 13, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1161
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news that on top of the Optus screwup, now the four larges ports in Australia are effectively shut down via a cyberattack. But first up today, we should note that credit rating agency Moody's has held the US rating at Aaa, but changed the outlook to 'Negative' from 'Stable'. ...
Nov 12, 2023•8 min•Ep. 1160
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news that Apple's tax tussle with the EU isn't going its way. And more than NZ$20 bln is at stake. But first up, US jobless claims were reported lower in the seasonally adjusted data, but actually rose in the raw data, and by quite a bit. There are now 1.608 mln people on the...
Nov 09, 2023•4 min•Ep. 1159
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news there is little evidence the global economy is on the rise. Bond markets don't think so. But first, last week there was a rare rise in American mortgage applications , now off a lower base however, but also helped by sharply lower mortgage interest rates. Their benchma...
Nov 08, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1158
New Zealand should be one of the easiest places in the world to get to net zero greenhouse gas emissions and we should be planning for net negative, the next step after that, says Christina Hood. Hood, the head of energy and climate policy consultancy Compass Climate, spoke to interest.co.nz in a new episode of our Of Interest podcast . Hood is also the former head of the climate unit at theInternational Energy Agency in Paris. In the podcast she spoke about the push to net zero by 2050; address...
Nov 08, 2023•36 min•Ep. 1157
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news global trade is in the spotlight. The run of dairy price rises ended in today's Global Dairy Trade auction today. Overall prices fell -0.7% in USD terms, down -1.2% in NZD terms. The key WMP price fell -2.7% in a key shift, but one signaled by the weekly GDT Pulse eve...
Nov 07, 2023•6 min•Ep. 1156
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news mostly about Australia today. The Australian prime minister is in Beijing meeting with President Xi. Trade is the main topic, and that needs improved relations after a period of bilateral tension. These latest meetings bring a notable thaw, ahead of the US-China meeting...
Nov 06, 2023•4 min•Ep. 1155
China PMIs lackluster. China suffers FDI outflow. US non-farm payrolls grow but PMIs soft. Aussie retail volumes sink. Albanese in Beijing.
Nov 05, 2023•8 min•Ep. 1154
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the US Treasury’s debt issuance plan eased investors’ fears of a looming deluge of long-term government debt that had triggered a bond market rout and bond markets have rallied very sharply. But first in the US initial jobless claims rose last week by a mere +2800 last w...
Nov 03, 2023•6 min•Ep. 1153
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the US central bank still sees American inflation 'elevated' above where it needs to be. At its latest review , the US Fed has delivered the result markets expected, and one well signaled by the recent Fed speakers - a hawkish hold. They kept the federal funds rate at ...
Nov 01, 2023•7 min•Ep. 1152
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the Chinese President is having to get involved in shoring up China's faltering economic track. In China, their official factory PMI fell unexpectedly in October back into contraction after the minor expansion in September. Markets weren't expecting that, So China's e...
Oct 31, 2023•6 min•Ep. 1151
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news geopolitical risks remain high but they don't seem to be escalating from here, and markets are taking that as a positive signal. But benchmark interest rates are back rising again. First up today, global banking giant HSBC has announced a doubling of its profits in Q3-2...
Oct 30, 2023•4 min•Ep. 1150
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with economic news away from the global geopolitical struggles was only 'average' over the weekend. In the week ahead, the key local data is our September labour market situation which is due Wednesday. More here . Then on Thursday (NZT), the US Fed will review its monetary policy...
Oct 29, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1149
After the 2014 election, Peter Dunne got a phone call from Prime Minister John Key to say National wouldn’t need the support of United Future to form a Government. The same call was made to the Act and Māori parties, which had also signed confidence and supply agreements after the 2011 election. Key invited all three parties to stay in the tent, if they wanted, but said there wouldn’t be any policy concessions or negotiations. They took the deal. “A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush,” Du...
Oct 26, 2023•35 min•Ep. 1148
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news that is impressive out of North America. First up today, the Americans have delivered a stellar Q3-2023 GDP expansion, far higher than the optimistic forecasts, and far higher than the very good Q2-2023 expansion of +2.1%. In Q3, the giant American economy grew +4.9% acc...
Oct 26, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1147
