Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news commodity prices are trending down across the board now - but not money commodity prices. But first in the US, although mortgage applications 'only' fell -1% last week from the prior week (and to be down -22% from a year earlier), the big news was the +20 bps jump in t...
Oct 25, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1146
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with economic news is taking a bit of a back seat today but there are still key trends to note. First in the US, the latest PMI reading for the American manufacturing sector has it out of contraction to its best level in six months. This same 'flash' report for October for thei...
Oct 24, 2023•4 min•Ep. 1145
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news we are seeing falls in some key commodity prices (like oil and copper), and a sharpish retreat in benchmark interest rates today. That is probably all due to rising risks in the Middle East. But looking ahead, this short week we will be looking at the second estimate of...
Oct 23, 2023•7 min•Ep. 1144
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the US may not be over more rate hikes yet. First up today, Fed boss Powell has been speaking and trying to pitch a middle path, one that he suggests they have got policy settings about right. But he did concede that the American economy's strength including very tight l...
Oct 19, 2023•7 min•Ep. 1143
New Zealand's supply chains are in "a serious, if not critical condition," requiring holistic systems thinking and a long-term focus, investment and government support to become stronger and more resilient, says self proclaimed supply chain tragic Dave Christie. Christie, who has worked in supply chain roles for the army, PwC, the Warehouse, Fonterra, Coda Group, Tainui Group Holdings developing the Ruakura Superhub, and Synergic Technologies, spoke to interest.co.nz in the latest episode of our...
Oct 18, 2023•54 min•Ep. 1142
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news financial markets are struggling to respond to the enhanced geopolitical threats and are doing so by "not over-reacting". In the background, volatility was lower and earnings reports were positive. A speech by Fed boss Powell is due soon. But first up today, the releas...
Oct 18, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1141
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news bond yields are rising fast today as hot American data fuels bets the US Fed will need to raise rates again. But first, the overnight dairy auction was a reprise of the previous two, up another +4.3% this time. But to be fair it hasn't yet made back all of its steep f...
Oct 17, 2023•6 min•Ep. 1140
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news global financial markets are still assuming the Gaza-Israel flare-up won't affect them. On Wall Street analysts are betting the American economy is actually operating better than they had been assuming. And tech stocks are rising ahead of earnings reports that are assum...
Oct 16, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1139
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the threat of the Chinese economic slowdown hangs over the global economy and now they are staring at imminent deflation. But first we should note, there was a right-shift in the political mood evident in weekend voting in both Australia and New Zealand . There is also a...
Oct 15, 2023•6 min•Ep. 1138
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news inflation's force is on full display again, and long bond yields are back rising. But first in the US, consumer inflation was steady at 3.7% in September, the same as August, against market expectations of a slight decrease to 3.6%. A smaller decline in energy prices off...
Oct 12, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1137
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news that in the shadow of the sudden geopolitical risks in Gaza, economic markers are generally positive. But the chances of more rate rises seem to be receding. US mortgage applications were steady last week, little-changed from the prior week so still -19% lower than yea...
Oct 11, 2023•4 min•Ep. 1136
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the new war in Gaza, and a stumbling Chinese economy are together posing new risks to an already fragile global economy. But there are some bright spots still. Firstly in the US, one-year ahead inflation expectations held steady at 3.7% in September, up fractionally f...
Oct 10, 2023•6 min•Ep. 1135
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news investors are ignoring the geopolitical risks. The main talking point today is how little financial and commodity markets have reacted to the sudden Gaza-Israel conflict threats. Yes, bond markets are having a 'flight to safety' with yields falling somewhat, but is it l...
Oct 09, 2023•4 min•Ep. 1134
The Green Party’s finance (and transport) spokesperson Julie Anne Genter has an unlikely ally on a handful of policy issues: Mayor of Auckland Wayne Brown. Both politicians agree New Zealand needs to scale up its public transport, move more freight by rail, implement congestion charging, and build cheaper versions of big Labour projects. The Greens already have three former mayoral candidates (one successful) in winnable spots on their party list — could Wayne Brown make the 2026 list? Genter do...
Oct 09, 2023•37 min•Ep. 1133
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the sudden Middle-East explosion is likely to put safe-haven assets back in the spotlight this week. But first, China said its giant foreign exchange reserves were little-changed in August. They don't provide transparency of which currencies they hold them in, but we do ...
Oct 08, 2023•8 min•Ep. 1132
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news a global soft landing seems much more likely now, despite China's travails. The actual number of Americans on jobless benefits was just 1.58 mln and an eight month low, and the number of new filings were 173,000 last week and close to a seven month low. None of this very...
Oct 05, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1131
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news a sense of dread you might get looking at financial markets from the outside isn't being reflected in the activity of those markets. But first the worrying news. We should note that American benchmark mortgage interest rates topped 7.5% last week for the first time sin...
Oct 04, 2023•6 min•Ep. 1130
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news high interest rates are becoming the new normal, even as benchmark rates keep in rising fast. Where will it end? But first, the overnight dairy auction was a good one again, a third consecutive rise, this one by +4.4% in USD terms, up +5.0% in NZD terms. That takes th...
Oct 03, 2023•6 min•Ep. 1129
Labour Party finance spokesperson Grant Robertson admits to overspending in one area, his own personal home sound system, but he doesn’t regret it. “I probably spent more money on stereo equipment than [I should’ve], but I get a great deal of joy out of it,” he said, after Interest.co.nz asked for an example. It turns out he is something of an audiophile and a huge fan of Flying Nun Records and the Dunedin Sound which were a pop culture phenomenon in the 1980s. Robertson also doesn’t regret usin...
Oct 02, 2023•17 min•Ep. 1128
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news benchmark UST yields are rising fast again but the rate inversions are unwinding just as fast. But first up, we should note that the World Bank has cut its forecast for 2024 growth in the Chinese economy sharply, down from +4.8% it forecasted in April, to now +4.4%. Its...
Oct 02, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1127
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news, a pair of surveys confirm the giant Chinese economy is just crawling along, neither expanding nor contracting. First up today however, we need to note that it is a holiday in much of Australia, their Labour Day. And late on Friday, they released a review of June quarter...
Oct 01, 2023•7 min•Ep. 1126
The New Zealand First deputy leader and finance spokesperson Shane Jones is calling for higher growth and more productivity as a way to bring prosperity to a wider class of New Zealanders. He adds this is the way to help Maori overcome negative social statistics, and the thicket of regulation governing business in all areas of the economy only makes things worse for everyone. Jones adds tax relief will have to be looked at again because of the country's vulnerable economic condition....
Oct 01, 2023•27 min•Ep. 1125
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news, so far the sky is not falling despite the higher benchmark interest rates First in the US, the actual number of new initial claims for jobless benefits fell to just under 175,000 last week, emphasising the continuing strength of the American labour market. True, the sea...
Sep 28, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1124
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news it is the same story continuing, benchmark yields are still pushing higher. But first, after the prior week's rather unexpected surge, American mortgage applications fell last week, reverting to the negative trend we have seen since May 2023. The usual culprit was resp...
Sep 27, 2023•6 min•Ep. 1123
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the fall in bond prices (rise in bond yields) is biting even harder today. Equity market valuations are taking a hit from the pressure on capitalisation as rates rise. And a looming US government shutdown isn't helping sentiment either. JP Morgan boss Jamie Dimon is now...
Sep 26, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1122
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news asset values are under threat as the cost of money rises. All the focus in financial markets is on bond yields. They rose overnight as investors concluded that the world's major central banks would need to keep the interest rates higher for longer to keep inflation in c...
Sep 25, 2023•4 min•Ep. 1121
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news higher benchmark interest rates are clouding the global economy. But after last week's big central bank meetings, this week it will be more about macroeconomic data. In the US, the spotlight will be on the PCE Price Index, as well as personal income and spending data. An...
Sep 24, 2023•6 min•Ep. 1120
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news it is all about the fast-rising benchmark interest rates and steeper curves today. And higher rates may be here to stay. We should remember that in the decade prior to the GFC, which ushered in 'lower for longer', the benchmark UST 10yr rate average 4.52%. We could well ...
Sep 21, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1119
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news all eyes have been on Washington DC and the US Fed. As expected, the American central bank's September policy review was a "hawkish hold". It kept its policy rate at 5.25% following a +25 bps hike in July but signaled there could be one more hike this year. They pointe...
Sep 20, 2023•7 min•Ep. 1118
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news both equity and bond markets are displaying some nerves ahead of tomorrow's US Fed rate and policy decisions. But first, there was another dairy auction overnight and a good gain was achieved even if not as strong as some market forecasts expected. Overall prices were...
Sep 19, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1117
